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Member State's Energy Dependence: an Indicator-Based Assessment

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Member State's Energy Dependence: an Indicator-Based Assessment ISSN 1725-3209 (online) ISSN 1725-3195 (print) EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 196 | June 2014 Member State’s Energy Dependence: An Indicator-Based Assessment Economic and Financial Affairs Occasional Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and cover a wide spectrum of subjects. Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily reflect the official views of the European Commission. Comments and enquiries should be addressed to: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Unit Communication B-1049 Brussels Belgium E-mail: [email protected] LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/. More information on the European Union is available on http://europa.eu. KC-AH-14-196-EN-N (online) KC-AH-14-196-EN-C (print) ISBN 978-92-79-35380-2 (online) ISBN 978-92-79-36124-1 (print) doi:10.2765/75127 (online) doi:10.2765/78633 (print) © European Union, 2014 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Member State’s Energy Dependence: An Indicator-Based Assessment EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 196 ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES AT Austria BE Belgium BG Bulgaria CY Cyprus CZ The Czech Republic CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DE Germany DK Denmark EE Estonia EL Greece ES Spain FI Finland FR France HU Hungary IE Ireland IT Italy LT Lithuania LU Luxembourg LV Latvia MT Malta NL The Netherlands NO Norway PL Poland PT Portugal RO Romania RU Russia SE Sweden SI Slovenia SK Slovakia TR Turkey UA Ukraine UK The United Kingdom US United States OTHERS bn Billion CA Current account CDM Clean Development Mechanism CHP Combined heat and power CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent DG ENER Directorate-General for Energy DSO Distribution system operator EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EDI Energy dependence indicators EEPR European Energy Programme for Recovery EC European Commission EEA European Economic Area EMCC1 European Market Coupling Company ii ERGEG European Regulators' Group for Gas and Electricity ESO Electricity system operator ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU European Union EUR Euro Euratom European Atomic Energy Community FEC Final energy consumption GDP Gross domestic product GIC Gross inland consumption GIS Green Investment Scheme GHG Greenhouse gas GVA Gross value added GWh Gigawatt hour HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman index HICP Harmonized index of consumer prices HVDC High-voltage direct current IEA International Energy Agency ILUC Indirect land use change ITO Independent transmission system operator JRC Joint Research Center LNG Liquefied natural gas LPG Liquefied petroleum gas LTC Long-term gas contract LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry kcal Kilocalories kg Kilogram km Kilometre ktoe Kilo tonnes of oil equivalent kV Kilo volt kWh Kilowatt hour mcm Million cubic metre MS Member State Mt Million tonnes Mtoe Million tonnes of oil equivalent MURE Mesures d'Utilisation Rationnelle de l'Energie MW Megawatt MWe Megawatt electrical NEEAP National Energy Efficiency Action Plan NGL Natural Gas Liquids NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan NTC Net transfer capacity OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OTC Over-the-counter PJ Petajoule PPS Purchasing power standard pp Percentage points PSO Public service obligation PV Photovoltaic REFIT Renewable energy feed-in tariff RES Renewable energy sources SEM Single electricity market tCO2-eq Tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent TSO Transmission system operator iii TJ Terajoule toe Tonnes of oil equivalent tU Tonnes uranium TWh Terawatt hour VAT Value-added tax iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs under the direction of Marco Buti, Director-General, Servaas Deroose, Deputy Director-General, and Anne Bucher, Director of the Directorate for Structural Reforms and Competitiveness. Emmanuelle Maincent (Head of Unit, Economic Analysis of Energy, Transport, Climate Change and Cohesion Policy) and Ǻsa Johannesson Lindén (Deputy Head of Unit, Economic Analysis of Energy, Transport, Climate Change and Cohesion Policy) coordinated and supervised the production of the report. The main contributors were Magdalena Spooner, Mirco Tomasi, Paul Arnoldus, Ǻsa Johannesson Lindén, Fotis Kalantzis, Emmanuelle Maincent, Jerzy Pienkowski and Andras Rezessy. We also acknowledge the contribution of Arthika Sripathy and Artur Lenkowski. Statistical support was provided by Andras Rezessy and Vittorio Gargaro. Vittorio Gargaro was also responsible for the lay-out of the report. Comments and suggestions by colleagues in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, the Directorate-General for Energy, the Directorate-General for Climate Action as well as by members of the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) Working Group on Energy and Climate Change are gratefully acknowledged. Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent to: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Unit B4: Economic Analysis of Energy, Transport, Climate Change and Cohesion Policies European Commission BE-1049 Brussels or by e-mail to [email protected] The cut-off date for this report was 15 May 2014. v CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Part I: 3 1. Energy Dependence in Member States and Diversification of Energy Imports 5 1.1. Energy dependence in EU Member States 5 1.2. Diversification of import sources in Member States 13 1.3. References 16 2. Energy Efficiency developments in the EU 17 2.1. Energy Intensity Developments in the EU-28: Stylized facts 17 2.2. Sectoral development of energy intensity in the EU-28 20 2.3. Energy efficiency policy measures in EU-28 and Member States 21 2.4. Disentangling Effect of Restructuring from Energy Intensity Developments in the EU-28 and Member States 24 2.5. Assessing the drivers of energy intensity developments 26 2.6. Conclusions 29 2.7. References 29 Appendix 1 – Methodological remarks 31 Appendix 2 – Shift-share analysis 33 Appendix 3 – Data considerations for panel data analysis 34 A.1. Definition of indicators used in the EDI 37 A1.1. Security of Energy Supply 37 A1.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity of the Economy 39 A1.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade Balance 44 A.2. Energy dependence indicators for 2008 and 2012 47 Part II: Country profiles 55 Introduction to the Country Fiches 57 1. Austria 59 1.1. Security and Energy Supply 59 1.2. Energy and carbon intensity 64 1.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 67 1.4. References 68 2. Belgium 71 2.1. Security of Energy Supply 71 2.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 75 2.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 78 2.4. References 79 3. Germany 81 3.1. Security of Energy Supply 81 3.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 87 3.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 90 3.4. ReferenceS 91 4. Denmark 93 vii 4.1. Security of Energy Supply 93 4.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 98 4.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 102 4.4. References 103 5. Spain 105 5.1. Security of energy supply 105 5.2. Energy and carbon intensity 109 5.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 112 5.4. References 113 6. Finland 115 6.1. Security of Energy Supply 115 6.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 121 6.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 124 6.4. References 125 7. France 127 7.1. Security of Energy Supply 127 7.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 132 7.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 135 7.4. References 136 8. The Netherlands 139 8.1. Security of Energy Supply 139 8.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 146 8.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 150 8.4. References 151 9. Sweden 153 9.1. Security of Energy Supply 153 9.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 158 9.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 161 9.4. References 162 10. The United Kingdom 163 10.1. Security of Energy Supply 163 10.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 170 10.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 174 10.4. References 175 LIST OF TABLES I.1.1. Energy dependence indicators related to the security of energy supply dimension* 6 I.1.2. Electricity mix in the EU* 8 I.1.3. Energy dependence indicators related to the energy and carbon intensity dimension* 10 I.1.4. Energy dependence indicators related to the trade dimension* 12 I.2.1. Results of panel data analysis 28 I.2.App.1. Corresponding definitions of GVA and final energy consumption by sectors 32 I.2.App.2. Description of variables used in the energy intenisty model 35 II.1.1. Energy and carbon intensity 65 II.1.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 68 viii II.2.1. Energy and carbon intensity 76 II.2.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 79 II.3.1. Energy and carbon intensity 87 II.3.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 91 II.4.1. Energy and carbon intensity 99 II.4.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 103 II.5.1. Energy and carbon intensity 110 II.5.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 113 II.6.1. Energy and carbon intensity 121 II.6.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 125 II.7.1. Energy and carbon intensity 133 II.7.2. Decomposition of Energy Trade Balance 136 II.8.1.
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