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Motives, Methods, and Timing a Thesis Submitte INTERSECTING INTERVENTIONS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL POWERS IN THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR: MOTIVES, METHODS, AND TIMING A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY İNCİ BİLGİN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JULY 2018 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Tülin Gençöz Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Assist. Prof. Dr. Derya Göçer Akder Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Muzaffer Ercan Yılmaz (Uludağ Uni., ULU) Assist. Prof. Dr. Derya Göçer Akder (METU, ARS) Assist. Prof. Dr. Şerif Onur Bahçecik (METU, IR) PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : İnci Bilgin Signature : iii ABSTRACT INTERSECTING INTERVENTIONS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL POWERS IN THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR: MOTIVES, METHODS, AND TIMING Bilgin, İnci MSc., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Dr. Derya Göçer Akder July 2018, 106 Pages Following the spread of the Arab Uprisings to Syria, a civil war broke out between Syrian opponents and government; consequently, thousands of people have died, injured, and been displaced. The Syrian Civil War paved the way for the emergence of various local armed groups which have claims over the Syrian territory. In the meantime, the world has witnessed multiple-interventions of global and regional actors in the conflict in Syria through diplomatic, economic and military means. This thesis focuses on the interventions in the conflict in Syria by Russia, US, Turkey, and Iran and aims to show the impact of a current/potential intervenor on the others’ motivations, methods, and timing, in other words interaction among intervenors. To do this, this study explains the motivations of intervenors to intervene (self-interest and/or humanitarian concerns), the methods they used (unilateral or multilateral, biased or neutral, diplomatic-economic or military), and the timing of their interventions. The result of the study indicates that each actor has ability to change the others’ motivations, methods, and timing of intervention. Indeed, it is seen that neither of the aforementioned four countries was immune from the impact of the others’ intervention preferences. Keywords: Foreign Intervention, Syrian Civil War, Interaction, Motivations, Methods iv ÖZ SURİYE İÇ SAVAŞI’NDA KÜRESEL VE BÖLGESEL GÜÇLERİN KESİŞEN MÜDAHALELERİ: NEDENLER, YÖNTEMLER VE ZAMANLAMA Bilgin, İnci Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Derya Göçer Akder Temmuz 2018, 106 Sayfa Arap Ayaklanmalarının Suriye’ye yayılmasının ardından Suriye muhalifleri ve hükümeti arasında bir iç savaş patlak vermiştir; bunun sonucunda binlerce insan hayatını kaybetmiş, yaralanmış ve yerinden edilmiştir. Suriye İç Savaşı, Suriye toprakları üzerinde hak iddia eden çeşitli yerel silahlı grupların ortaya çıkmasına zemin hazırlamıştır. Aynı zamanda dünya, Suriye’deki çatışmalarda küresel ve bölgesel aktörlerin diplomatik, ekonomik ve askeri araçlarla çoklu-müdahalelerine tanık olmuştur. Bu tez, Suriye’ye Rusya, ABD, Türkiye ve İran tarafından gerçekleştirilen müdahalelere odaklanmakta ve mevcut/potansiyel bir müdahalenin diğerlerinin motivasyonları, yöntemleri ve zamanlaması üzerindeki etkisini, diğer bir deyişle müdahaleciler arasındaki etkileşimi göstermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma bunu gerçekleştirmek için, müdahalecilerin müdahale etmedeki motivasyonlarını (öz- çıkar ve/veya insani kaygılar), kullandıkları yöntemleri (tek taraflı veya çok taraflı, taraflı veya tarafsız, diplomatik-ekonomik veya askeri) ve müdahalelerinin zamanlamasını açıklamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonucu, her bir aktörün diğerlerinin motivasyonlarını, yöntemlerini ve zamanlamasını değiştirebilme yeteneğine sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Nitekim bahsi geçen dört ülkeden hiçbirinin diğerlerinin müdahale tercihlerinin etkisinden bağışık olmadığı görülmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Dış Müdahale, Suriye İç Savaşı, Etkileşim, Motivasyonlar, Yöntemler v DEDICATION To My Father… vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It is an honor for me to thank my supervisor Assist. Prof. Dr. Derya Göçer Akder without her encouragement and guidance this work would not have materialized. And I would like to express my deep gratitude to Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür who gave me constructive suggestions regarding the topic. I would like to offer my special thanks to the members of the examining committee, Prof. Dr. M. Ercan Yılmaz and Assist. Prof. Ş. Onur Bahçecik for their invaluable contributions with their encouraging comments and helpful advices. I am indebted to my many of my colleagues, Assoc. Prof. İsmail Şahin, Assist. Prof. Alptekin Molla, Assoc Prof. Zeynep Yücel, Assist. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Arıöz, Assist. Prof. Dr. Ayça Özekin, Dr. M. Kürşad Özekin, Res. Asst. Derya Topdağ, and Res. Asst. Elmas Suluhan to support me. I would also like to thank Yeşim Hoca, Esra Çetindere and Academic Writing Center members who checked the text out with a great attention. I owe a great debt of gratitude to my friends Ayşegül Çaylı and Dicle Var, and my mother Rufkiye Bilgin for their moral support and warm encouragement. Last but not least, I must express my very profound gratitude to my boyfriend Kerem Önsoy for his endless support and patience throughout my years of study and through the process of researching and writing this thesis. This accomplishment would not have been possible without his support. Thank you. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ........................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. iv ÖZ ............................................................................................................................... v DEDICATION .......................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................ vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................ viii LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... x LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... xi LIST OF MAPS ........................................................................................................ xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................. xiii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Significance of the Topic ........................................................................... 1 1.1 Aim of Research/Research Question .......................................................... 2 1.2 Methodology .............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Organization of the Thesis ......................................................................... 3 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................... 5 2.1 Foreign Intervention in Armed Conflicts ................................................... 5 2.1.1 Forms of Intervention ......................................................................... 8 2.1.1.1 Strategies of Intervention ........................................................... 9 2.1.1.1.1 Diplomacy .............................................................................. 9 2.1.1.1.2 Economic Intervention ......................................................... 10 2.1.1.1.3 Military Intervention ............................................................ 10 2.1.1.2 Opportunities for Intervention .................................................. 11 2.1.2 Foreign Intervention in Civil Wars................................................... 15 2.1.2.1 Motivations, Methods and Timing of Intervenors .................... 16 2.1.2.1.1 Motivations of Intervenors ................................................... 17 viii 2.1.2.1.2 Methods and Timing of Intervention ................................... 20 3. SYRIAN CIVIL WAR: ACTORS AND CONFLICTS ................................... 24 3.1 A Brief History of Syria ........................................................................... 24 3.2 Assad Period ............................................................................................. 28 3.3 Emergence of Uprising ............................................................................. 34 3.4 Civil War .................................................................................................. 37 3.4.1 Actors of Syrian Civil War ............................................................... 38 4. MOTIVES, METHODS, AND TIMING
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