ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE PROGRAM Assessment of climate change effects on rain fed crop production and coping mechanisms: the case of smallholder farmers of west Shoa zone, Oromia, Ethiopia A Master’s Thesis Submitted to the graduate program of Addis Ababa University environmental science program in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the Degree MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE By- Leta Abate Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to thank my God for his untold and all time grace that gave me courage to start and finish this thesis work. I would also like to express my deepest gratitude to my advisor Dr. Seyoum Leta for his supervision and constructive comments throughout my research work. I would like to thank West Shoa Zone Irrigation development office for giving me a chance to study at Addis Ababa University. I would also extend my inner thanks to, NMSA, CSA, West-Shoa Zone and Woreda ARDO and DPPO officials for their continuous support in providing me the necessary data and assistance during my field work. My thanks also extend to Holeta, Ambo and Bako Agricultural research centers officials and researchers. I would also like to thank my friends, Sofia Abebe, Gelana Dufera, India Abebe for their moral support and making my overall stay in Addis memorable, may God bless you all. I am also indebted to my colleagues Dagnachew Delessa, Solomon Mengistu, Chaluma Regassa, and Itaferahu G/Yes and the rest of stuffs working at West Shoa irrigation Development Office. Finally, my deepest gratitude also goes to HoA-REC/N for providing me research Fund without which my research work would have been impossible. ii Table of contents Acknowledgments…..…………………………………………………………………………….i List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………..iv List of figures……………………………………………………………………………………..v Acronyms…………………………………………………………………………………………vi Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………..…....vii 1-INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………….…………….……1 1.1 Background and Justification ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Statement of the problem ................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objectives of the study ......................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 General Objective .......................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2 Specific Objectives ........................................................................................................ 6 2. LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………………………………..…………7 2.1 Climate change general background ..................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 Concepts and definitions of climate change .................................................................. 7 2.1.2 Components of climate and climate system tele-connections ....................................... 7 2.1.3 Causes of climate change ............................................................................................... 9 2.1.4 Manifestations of climate change .................................................................................. 9 2.2 Overview of Ethiopia’s climate .......................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 Rainfall regimes and temperature ................................................................................ 12 2.2.2 Climate related hazards in Ethiopia ............................................................................. 13 2.3 Vulnerability of Ethiopian Agriculture to climate change .................................................. 14 2.3.1 Impacts on food security .............................................................................................. 16 2.4 Coping with climate change effects .................................................................................... 19 2.4.1 Concepts of Adaptation and resilience to climate Change .......................................... 19 2.4 2 Linkage between adaptation and mitigation ................................................................ 20 2.4.3 National Adaptation Program Action of Ethiopia (NAPA) ......................................... 22 2.4.4 Farm level Adaptation Practices .................................................................................. 22 2.4.4.1 Tactical(short term) adaptation measures……..……………………………….…23 2.4.4.2 Strategic(Long term) adaptation measures…………….…………………………24 2.5 Analysis of farm level adaptation measures in Abay basin ................................................ 34 2.6 Importance of local innovations/indigenous knowledge to cope with climate change ...... 35 iii 3. METHODS . ……………………………………………………………………………………38 3.1 Research area description ................................................................................................... 38 3.1.1 Location ....................................................................................................................... 38 3.1.2 Population .................................................................................................................... 39 3.1.3 Topography .................................................................................................................. 39 3.1.4 Climate ......................................................................................................................... 39 3.1.5 Vegetation .................................................................................................................... 39 3.1.6 Land use and Agriculture ............................................................................................. 39 3.2 Research strategy and Site selection ................................................................................... 40 3.3 Data Collection ................................................................................................................... 41 3.3.1 Primary data ................................................................................................................. 41 3.3.2 Secondary data ............................................................................................................. 43 3.4 Data Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 43 3.4.1 Socio-economic data analysis ..................................................................................... 43 3.4.2 Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................. 44 3.4.3 Trend significance test ................................................................................................. 44 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS…………………………………..……………………………..46 4.1 Rainfall Variability and trend ............................................................................................. 46 4.2 Temperature variability and trend ....................................................................................... 52 4.3 Occurrence of unusual weather events ............................................................................... 54 4.4 Impacts on crop production……………………………………………………………….55 4.5 Coping mechanisms ............................................................................................................ 60 4.5.1 Resources required for coping ..................................................................................... 64 4.6 Institutional coping mechanisms and local knowledge ...................................................... 65 5. CONCULUSIONS……………………………………………………………………………...68 6. RECOMMENDATIONS…………………………………………………...…………………...70 7. REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………..71 6. ANNEXES ... ……………………………………………………………………………………80 iv List of Tables Page Table-1 Over view of traditional water harvesting technology in Ethiopia ………………..…28 Table-2 Geographical Location of Meteorological stations…………………………………..43 Table-3 Values of Rainfall trend Analysis……………………………………………………46 Table-4 Annual total Rainfall variability……………………………………………………..47 Table-5 Kiremt Rainfall and coefficient of variation…………………………………………51 Table-6 Belg Rainfall and coefficient of variation……………………………………………51 Table-7 Correlation of Belg and Kiremt Rainfall…………………………………………….52 Table-8 Values of Temperature trend Analysis………………………………………………52 Table-9 Values of Average annual temperature and Coefficient of variation………………..53 Table-10 Correlation of cereal production and Kiremt rainfall at Holeta……………………58 Table-11 Correlation of cereal production with Belg and Kiremt Rainfall at Bako…………59 Table-12 Resource required for Adaptation and level of importance………………………..64 v List of Figures Page Figure- 1 Common adaptation practices in Nile basin of Ethiopia Basin…………………….…35 Figure -2 Research area Map………………………………………………………………….…38 Figure-3 Survey design…………………………………………………………………………..42 Figure- 4 Trend and variability of annual total rainfall of Bako Station.…………………….….48 Figure- 5 Trend and variability of annual total rainfall of Ambo Station ………………………48 Figure- 6 Trend and variability of annual total rainfall of Holeta Station ………………………48 Figure- 7 Spatial Variability of rainfall in west Shoa……..…………………………………..…49 Figure- 8 Trend and variability of monthly Rainfall at Bako station……………………………50 Figure- 9 Trend and variability