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Industrial Investment Banking Round-Up Capital Markets Perspectives As of December 18Th, 2020

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Industrial Investment Banking Round-Up Capital Markets Perspectives As of December 18Th, 2020 Industrial Investment Banking Round-Up Capital Markets Perspectives As of December 18th, 2020 Real-Time Market Perspectives • The initial round of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination shipments to states and hospitals was launched this week, as long-term- care facilities and nursing homes began receiving doses – The vaccine has deployed at a crucial time in the U.S., in which more than 247,000 new COVID-19 cases have recently been reported, hospitalizations have set a new record, and the number of deaths in a single day has also hit an all-time high • The Federal Reserve announced it raised its economic outlook for 2021, anticipating ~4% growth and ~5% unemployment – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated it would continue to buy at least $120 billion of bonds each month “until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals” – The Fed also increased its estimated rate of inflation for 2021 to 1.8% from 1.7%, based on its preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index M&A Markets (1) • 2H 2020 U.S. M&A reached $979.9 billion of aggregate value, a 160% increase from 1H 2020, when there was only $378.4 billion of announced transaction value – 2H 2020 generated the highest M&A volume in a second half since 2016 – Megadeals were scarce in 2020, with just 19 deals with a value above $10 billion announced in 2020, versus 33 in 2019 • The U.S. remained the most sought-after geography for cross-border M&A in 2020, despite a slight decline of 6% in aggregate value YoY to $269.1 billion • The number of SPAC buyers in U.S. M&A sharply increased in 2020, with 73 U.S. SPAC acquisitions announced, totaling $110.8 billion in aggregate transaction value – 85% of SPAC acquisitions in 2020 was targeted at U.S. companies, with technology companies attracting ~40% of volume . A total of 206 U.S. SPACs were raised this year alone, which accounted for 52% of the IPO capital raised in the U.S. • Distressed M&A transactions represented $62.3 billion of announced transaction value this year, a decrease of 11% YoY, while the total number of deals increased by 4%, from 425 in 2019 to 444 in 2020 – The most impacted industry during 2020 was the retail sector, with 48 distressed M&A deals in total Debt Capital Markets • Middle market M&A leveraged loan activity remains robust as arrangers are seeing an improved pipeline into the new year – In December, arranger’s launched loan volume was $1.2 billion from four deals – Middle market leveraged loan spreads are currently higher than pre-pandemic levels by 25-50 bps, but down from peak levels of 50-125 bps reached in March-May of 2020 • The CLO market continues to rebound with volumes increasing due to lower liability costs and ample loan supply – CLO new issue volume is projected to be $100-$110 billion next year, as managers take advantage of favorable terms on new facilities and an expected pick-up in primary loan activity in Q1 2021 • High yield bond new issue volume totaled $28.7 billion in the first two weeks of December, the most active primary market in the month on record – High yield funds reported a $1.0 billion outflow for the week ended December 16th, compared to a $2 million inflow the week prior – Year-to-date net fund flows for the high yield bond market totaled $44.6 billion • The investment grade fixed income market had $1.8 trillion of issuance year-to-date, with little activity expected for the remainder of the year – In 2021, the investment grade fixed income issuance is expected to return to an average annual issuance of $1.2 trillion Equity Capital Markets • The recent comeback in the equities market was initially fueled by mega-cap technology stocks, as well as companies that have benefited from the COVID-19 environment – The announcement of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine has accelerated equity market gains after a brief pause in November amid uncertainty about the presidential election and fiscal stimulus – Volatility has subsided from near record levels, signaling improving certainty of the economic outlook despite the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak expected in the coming winter months • The market recovery of 2020 has provided a white-hot equity market resulting in the most active year on record in terms of equity issuance volume as companies aimed to bolster their balance sheets and lock-in liquidity Sources: CNBC, WSJ, Dealogic, KeyBanc Capital Markets; (1) Data as of 12/15/2020 per Dealogic report Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity. Industrial Investment Banking Round-Up Building Products As of December 18th, 2020 Building Products Market Perspective • Employment conditions reeled last week as the Labor Department recorded 885,000 new unemployment claims, well above economists’ estimates of 808,000 – This week represented the highest level of initial unemployment claims since early September, underlining the current fragility of the labor market – The rise in unemployment comes on the heels of Congress passing a $900 billion stimulus package that will include direct payments to citizens across the country but will exclude liability protections for businesses as well as aid to state and local governments • After tapering from their all-time highs in August, lumber prices have spiked again as the industry continues to grapple with labor shortages – Cold weather typically brings a stagnation in demand for saw mills, however pent up demand from earlier in the pandemic has carried through to the fourth quarter – Lumber demand is expected to remain strong in the short term with lumber-dependent single family home construction projected to rise by 5% in 2021 – In response to such strong lumber demand, Norbord Inc. announced that it is planning to restart OSB production at its Canadian mill in Chambord, Quebec • Home Depot’s $8.7 billion acquisition of HD Supply Holdings pushed North American building products M&A deal value to a record high of $15.2 billion for the year – The previous record of $10.3 billion was reached in 2007 during the pre-crash housing boom • Quanex reported earnings for Q4 2020 and FY 2020, posting a strong quarter to end a turbulent year marked by global uncertainty and COVID-19 related shutdowns – Net sales grew by 6.3% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 as a result of increased demand across all of the Company’s operating segments Public Company Stock Performance Since February 21 Public Company Trading Performance Since February 21 (Indexed to 0%) (Enterprise Value / Next-Twelve-Months EBITDA) 45% 15.0x 36% 14.4x 30% 12.2x 15% 13% 11% 5% 0% 4% 10.0x 9.5x (15%) 9.3x (30%) (45%) (60%) 5.0x Feb-21 Apr-04 May-17 Jun-29 Aug-11 Sep-23 Nov-05 Dec-16 Feb-21 Apr-04 May-17 Jun-29 Aug-11 Sep-23 Nov-05 Dec-16 Manufacturing (Large Cap) Manufacturing (Mid Cap) Manufacturing (Small Cap) Distribution / Installation S&P 500 For additional information on KeyBanc Capital Markets, please contact any of the individuals listed below: Building Products Team Pat Curry J.R. Doolos Ali Zahrieh Cole Morrison Managing Director Managing Director Associate Analyst Head of Building Products Industrial M&A Building Products Building Products 212.476.7428 216.689.7674 212.476.7467 212.476.7477 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Sources: CNBC, Wall Street Research Note: Market data as of 11/11/2020; Manufacturing (Large Cap): ALLE, AOS, ASX:JHX, CSL, FBHS, HUBB, IR, LII, MAS, MHK, NYSE:CNR, OC, SHW, SWK; Manufacturing (Mid Cap): AAON, AMWD, AWI, AYI, BCC, CREE, CVCO, DOOR, FRTA, GFF, JELD, LPX, NYSE:LCII, PATK, ROCK, SSD, TILE, TREX, TSX:OSB, WMS; Manufacturing (Small Cap): AFI, APOG, CSTE, DXYN, IIIN, LYTS, NX, NYSE:SKY, PGTI, TGLS; Distribution / Installation: BECN, BLD, BLDR, BMCH, BXC, FBM, GMS, HDS, IBP, POOL, SIC, SITE, TSX:HDI, UFPI, WSO Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department.
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