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ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE February 3, 2017

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ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE February 3, 2017 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR ENERGY ADVISOR A WEEKLY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org February 3, 2017 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TOP NEWS Nigel Blackaby Global Head, OIL & GAS International Arbitration Group, Freshfi elds Bruckhaus Deringer Will Temer’s PDVSA Default Mary Rose Brusewitz ‘Probable’: Fitch Partner, Strasburger & Price Government Bet Venezuelan state oil company Jeffrey Davidow PDVSA’s oil output is expected Senior Counselor, to drop by 200,000 barrels per The Cohen Group on Renewables? day this year after the company Ramón Espinasa failed to fi nd the funding to invest Consultant, in production and agreed to cut Inter-American Development Bank output by 95,000 barrels per day Luis Giusti for six months. Senior Advisor, Page 2 Center for Strategic & International Studies Jonathan C. Hamilton POWER SECTOR Partner, White & Case USAID to Continue Raul Herrera Caribbean Energy Partner, Security Initiative Corporate & Securities Practice, Arnold & Porter The USAID mission director in Ja- Brazilian Mines and Energy Minister Fernando Coelho Filho canceled a renewable energy auc- James R. Jones tion last year but has not yet rescheduled the tender. // File Photo: Brazilian Government. maica said the United States will Chairman, support the Caribbean in reducing ManattJones Global Strategies greenhouse gas emissions. Jorge Kamine Offi cials from Brazil’s northeastern states met in January Page 3 Counsel, with the country’s minister of mines and energy, Fernando Skadden Arps Coelho Filho, to ask that new rounds of renewable energy OIL & GAS Craig A. Kelly Q Director, auctions take place this year. The ministry had canceled Number of Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, the wind and solar reserve energy auction, scheduled for Dec. 19, and Exxon Mobil Suspects in Coelho said the government is readjusting the renewable energy tender Jeremy Martin Petrobras Probe Vice President, Energy & Sustainability, model, which had originally been created based on the assumption that Institute of the Americas May Double Brazil’s economy would be growing at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. Larry Pascal Sources close to the negotiations Growth, however, has been fl at or negative for several years now. Will Chairman, say the plea deal with Odebrecht Americas Practice Group, the Brazilian government reset its efforts to expand the renewable en- employees and former employees Haynes & Boone ergy sector? Will investment in renewables signifi cantly benefi t Brazil’s includes testimony implicating Charles Shapiro allies of President Michel Temer President, struggling economy? How big of an investment will the defi cit-ridden in the Petrobras corruption probe. World Affairs Council of Atlanta nation be able to make in renewables over the years to come? Page 2 R. Kirk Sherr President, Clearview Strategy Group Mark S. Langevin, director of the Brazil Initiative and pro- Mark Thurber fessor at The George Washington University’s Elliott School Partner, Andrews Kurth of International Affairs: “Brazil’s National Council of Energy Alexandra Valderrama Policy estimated annual growth in electricity demand at 4.8 Manager, A International Government Affairs, percent under an annual economic growth projection of 3.3 percent until Chevron 2024. These projections included signifi cant expansion of wind energy, Lisa Viscidi from 5.4 percent of total installed electricity generation capacity to 12 Program Director, Inter-American Dialogue percent by 2025, and growth of 5.3 percent for solar. The recession has Max Yzaguirre driven industrial and residential consumption down. The decision to can- President and CEO, cel the Second Energy Reserve Auction for alternative renewables comes The Yzaguirre Group after the government’s new forecast of a signifi cant reduction in demand for 2019. This decision primarily affects wind energy installations in the Temer // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR February 3, 2017 OIL & GAS SECTOR NEWS social spending, low crude output and payment NEWS BRIEFS disputes with suppliers. The newly appointed PDVSA Default executive vice president is Maribel Parra, who Australia’s Melbana is a rear admiral in the armed forces. Also, Doubles Cuban Onshore ‘Probable’: Fitch Simón Zerpa will serve as the new fi nance vice president. Zerpa previously led a bilater- Reserve Estimates Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA’s oil out- al Venezuela-China fund, through which the Australia-based oil and gas company Melbana put is expected to drop by 200,000 barrels per South American country borrowed billions of Energy has more than doubled its reserve day this year after the company failed to fi nd dollars from Beijing, to be repaid in oil and fuel estimates for Cuban onshore oil, UPI reported the funding to invest in production, in addition shipments. Wednesday. CEO Peter Stickland said in a to agreeing to cut output by 95,000 barrels per statement that there were 612 million barrels day for six months as part of a deal with the Number of Suspects of prospective oil in the company’s Block 9 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries onshore area, and with a potential for billions and non-member countries in a bid to boost oil in Petrobras Case of barrels of oil-in-place. He added that modern prices, according to analysts, Bloomberg News oil recovery techniques may increase the recov- reported Thursday. Despite the recent increase Expected to Double ery factor above a historic 5 percent level. in global oil prices, PDVSA will likely be unable Brazilian prosecutors expect the number of suspects in the Petrobras corruption scandal Argentina’s Electricity to double as former executives of construc- tion conglomerate Odebrecht sign plea deals Rates Expected to and agree to cooperate with prosecutors Surge in March in exchange for lighter sentences, Agence Argentina’s electricity rates are expected to France-Presse reported Jan. 26. Federal spike by 60 percent to as much as 90 percent prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol, who is heading for many consumers starting in March, accord- the probe, said he expects that testimonies ing to fi gures presented by Energy Minister from Odebrecht executives will lead to “new Juan José Aranguren on Tuesday, Reuters Del Pino // File Photo: Venezuelan Government. investigations throughout Brazil.” Already, more reported. However, approximately 83 percent than 100 politicians have been ensnared in the to relieve its fi nancial burden because of its of energy consumers will see an increase in probe and are suspected of accepting bribes drop in output, leading Fitch Ratings to say that electricity rates of 183 pesos (about $11.51) from Odebrecht for themselves or for their the state oil company’s default is “probable.” per month or less, Aranguren said. In related news, Venezuelan President Nicolás political party in exchange for allowing builders Maduro on Sunday created an executive vice president position for PDVSA and named new [The testimony] could Venezuela Oil Shipments vice presidents to the state oil company in affect Mr. Temer’s what he said was an effort to fi ght corruption, ability to govern, Delayed Because of Reuters reported. Eulogio Del Pino will remain because there could PDVSA’s Inability to Pay in his position as PDVSA’s president, but new be a lot of names of vice presidents were named, including in the About a dozen tankers carrying more than four many of his allies.” areas of fi nance and exploration. “We have to million barrels of Venezuelan crude and fuels clean out the corruption that has incubated — Thiago de Aragão are anchored in the Caribbean Sea, unable in [the oil industry]; I call on the oil workers to to travel to their fi nal destinations because forcefully defeat corruption,” Maduro said. For to overcharge on their contracts with state oil debt-laden state oil company PDVSA is unable years, the country’s main industry has been company Petrobras. Dallagnol said the compa- to pay for port services, inspections and hull plagued by graft, ranging from smuggling to ny’s bribery scheme was more sophisticated cleaning following several oil leaks in key Ven- kickbacks and bribery that led to the prosecu- than expected. On Monday, Brazilian Supreme ezuelan ports, Reuters reported Jan. 26. The tion of some U.S.-based contractors who had Court President Cármen Lúcia accepted the South American country’s oil production and done business with the company. Previous plea deal, which sources close to the negotia- exports are at two-decade lows, and PDVSA’s attempts to shake up the company’s leader- tions say includes testimony implicating allies trouble paying creditors and service providers ship have not led to signifi cant changes in its of President Michel Temer in the Petrobras cor- has only made it more diffi cult for the company management style, which is known for heavy ruption probe, The Wall Street Journal reported. to boost production, the wire service reported. COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR February 3, 2017 Temer has denied wrongdoing in the past. News Now reported Wednesday. She added Following Lúcia’s approval of the agreement, USAID to Continue that the United States will also give support Temer said she acted correctly and did what to these countries to help reduce greenhouse she had to do, but he did not comment on the Caribbean Energy gas emissions, among other clean energy testimony in the agreement. Ever since taking Security Initiative initiatives. Barry said the United States had in over the presidency from former President Dil- recent years increased its involvement in the ma Rousseff after her impeachment last year, promotion of clean energy in the Caribbean, Maura Barry, the mission director of the United Temer has been trying to push forward a series with a focus on the region’s tourism sector, via States Agency for International Development of controversial reforms that he hopes will cut the Caribbean Energy Security Initiative.
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