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Political Analysis POLITICAL ANALYSIS THE CONSEQUENCES OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPAL ELECTION THE CONSEQUENCES OF than in 2016 (1,035). The PSD won in BRAZILIAN MUNICIPAL ELECTION Belo Horizonte (Alexandre Kalil) and Campo Grande (Marquinhos Trad). The results of the municipal elections showed, in general, that the voter sought candidates more distant from Left reorganization the extremes and with experience in management. For the first time since democratization, PT will not govern any capital in Brazil. In numbers, DEM and PP parties were He lost in Recife and Vitória in the sec- the ones that gained more space, with ond round. The party suffers from de- good performances from PSD, PL, and laying the renewal process and, little by Republicans. The polls also confirmed little, loses its hegemony. In this elec- the loss of prefectures by left-wing par- tion, they saw PSOL win in Belém and ties, especially the PT from former reach the second round in São Paulo. president Lula. PDT and PSB, on the other hand, guar- anteed good spaces in the capitals, es- pecially in the Northeast. Moderation The scenario encourages the reorgani- The municipal election, especially in zation of the left, with the possibility of large urban centers, acclaimed candi- candidates from other parties being the dates who adopted a moderate stance protagonists. It remains to be seen and tried to show themselves prepared whether the PT, which is still the main for the post. Outsiders were not as party in the field, will self-criticize and successful as two years ago, in the las agree to support a name from another general election in Brazil. party to Planalto run in 2022. DEM party came out strengthened in the capitals, with victories in the first round in Salvador (Bruno Reis), Curitiba Presidential support (Rafael Greca) and Florianópolis (Gean It was also an election with below- Loureiro). In the second round, Eduardo expected performance from candidates Paes had an expressive victory against officially supported by President Jair Marcelo Crivella in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro. Although he had said he Bruno Covas' re-election kept the PSDB would not be involved in the elections, ahead of the country's largest city. The he ended up making his own election party lost 265 city halls in comparison advertisement via Facebook. with 2016, but PSDB will continue as Among mayors, of 13 names supported the party whose mayors govern the by the president, two were elected largest number of Brazilians: 34 million. (Mão Santa in Parnaíba and Gustavo MDB won in five capitals, among them, Nunes in Ipatinga). Of the other 11, Porto Alegre and Goiânia. The party will two reached the second round: in Rio continue to lead the largest number of de Janeiro, Marcelo Crivella (Republi- cities (784) but elected 251 less mayors canos); and in Fortaleza, Capitão Wag- party coveted for alliances in the presi- ner (Pros). dential race. Politicians and analysts point out that The centre parties, which currently the performance of the candidates sup- support Bolsonaro in the National Con- ported by Bolsonaro does not mean an gress, will manage more than 2,600 assessment of the mandate of the Bra- municipalities from 2021 onwards. It is zilian President. Bolsonaro, today, is the almost half of the country's cities. High- favorite for re-election. light for PP, PSD, and PL. So far, these parties have no strong names to run for Allies will try to take the president a Brazilian Presidency. But following the little further to the center with the same logic, from the MDB, they are warning that the risk lies with a candi- parties with a structure in the country- date of moderate varnish. The good side that interests alliances for the performance of mayors who defended presidential dispute. quarantine serves as another warning. New name from left Projections for 2022 At 38 years of age, Guilherme Boulos Historically, the municipal election has received 2,168,109 votes in São Paulo, not been related to the presidential the largest city in the country and be- election. Even so, the result of the dis- came one of the main political actors in pute for city halls this year brings signs the 2022 electoral dispute. His second about the next steps. victory was to mobilize support, during The good performance in the election the dispute, from ex-presidential candi- encourages the DEM to have a name for dates of national prominence such as the presidential race. The question is to Ciro Gomes (PDT), Marina Silva (Rede) get a name that really has the strength and former president Lula (PT). to run for President of the Republic in This union around a young name may 2022. be the left-wing alternative to the 2022 The PSDB has João Doria, governor of electoral dispute. He has the potential São Paulo, as a pre-candidate for the to lead a broad alliance of parties, Planalto, even with the rejection in the something that currently is not imag- city of São Paulo. Public controversial ined possible around a PT candidacy. around vaccine against Covid-19 will be one of Doria's bets to receive attention and gain strength in an eventual dis- Congressmen in the election pute against Bolsonaro in 2022. This was the first election after the end The MDB, despite maintaining the larg- of coalitions among parties for the est number of city halls in the country, councilors’ election. The result, howev- remains without a strong name for a er, cannot be accurately assessed be- presidential dispute. This capillarity cause the campaign was impacted by across the country, however, makes the the pandemic. mayors. DEM, PP, PSD, PL, and Repub- licans grew. The MDB maintained the Congressmen in the election largest number of councilors in the In total, 69 federal deputies and 2 sen- country. And PT, PSDB, PSB and PDT ators ran for mayor and vice mayor in lost chairs in city councils compared to this year's election. The success of the 2016. parliamentarians, however, was small: only 11 were elected. Optional vote In the state capitals, representative Jo- ão Campos (PSB) won in Recife, in the The election of the pandemic was state of Pernambuco, against his cousin unique. Traditionally in October, the and also representative Marília Arraes election was transferred to November (PT). Eduardo Braide (Podemos) was this year. The campaign was also short- elected in São Luís, Maranhão. João er; the restrictions, although milder, Henrique Holanda Caldas, known as made it difficult to search for the vote; JHC (Patriotas), was elected in Maceió, and the drama of the pandemic and the Alagoas. And Edmilson Rodrigues race for a vaccine consumed the atten- (PSOL) won in Belém, Pará. tion of voters. Other congressmen elected mayors: Thus, the Superior Electoral Court reg- Alexandre Serfiotis (PSD), in Porto Real, istered the national abstention of in Rio de Janeiro; Margarida Salomão 23.14%, the highest for a municipal (PT), in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais; election. They are three percentage Sérgio Vidigal (PDT), in Serra, in Espíri- points above that registered in 2018 to Santo; and Wladimir Garotinho (20.33%), in times without Covid-19. (PSD), in Campos dos Goytacazes, also Last weekend, the president of the Su- in Rio de Janeiro. As vice-mayors, perior Electoral Court, Luís Roberto Bar- Deuzinho Filho (Republicans) was elect- roso, acknowledged in an interview that ed in Caucaia, Ceará; Juninho do Pneu this high abstention demonstrates that (DEM), in Nova Iguaçu, also in Rio de mandatory voting in Brazil, in practice, Janeiro; and Paulo Marinho Jr. (PL), in has become optional. The facility to jus- Caxias, in Maranhão. tify the absence, even by cell phone, and the low value of the fines allow the voter to choose whether or not to vote. City councils This was the first election after the end of coalitions among parties for the National Congress election councilors’ election. The result, howev- After the municipal election, disputes er, cannot be accurately assessed be- over the presidencies of the House of cause the campaign was impacted by Representatives and the Federal Senate the pandemic. are at the center of political attention. The result of the election in the City Last Sunday, the Federal Supreme Councils reinforced what happened for Court concluded the analysis of the case on the possibility of reelection of most two months before the dispute, congressman Rodrigo Maia and senator several parliamentarians are already Davi Alcolumbre. Most justices voted interested in running. against the re-election of both, which In the House of Representatives, should result in a greater number of among the names that have already competitors. been considered as candidates are (in The press highlights the popular mobili- alphabetical order): Alessandro Molon zation, which had a decisive influence (PSB-RJ), Arthur Lira (PP-AL), on the STF ministers. The possibility of Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), Baleia Rossi authorizing reelection was called “drib- (MDB-SP), Captain Augusto (PL-SP), bling in the Constitution” across the Carlos Zaratini (PT-SP), Elmar Nasci- country. In three days, the STF vote mento (DEM-BA), Fábio Ramalho (MDB- started with the tendency to authorize MG), Fernando Coelho Filho (DEM-PE), reelection, but on last Sunday night it Gleisi Hoffmann ( PT-PR), Luciano Bivar ended, preventing the re-election of the (PSL-PE), Marcos Pereira (Republi- presidents of the two Houses. canos-SP), Marcelo Freixo (PSOL-RJ), Marcelo Ramos (PL-AM) and Soraya Santos (PL-RJ). The names of ministers Score zeroed Fábio Faria (PSD-RN) and Tereza Cristi- na (DEM-MS) have also been men- Politically, this decision had cleared the tioned, who could return to their man- plan for the start of the electoral race in date to run in the election.
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