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o isio a o e imi a y igu e Economic Survey 2/99 Economic trends
Eco omic e s
According to preliminary figures from the quarterly natio- domestic investment projects, investment in the mainland nal accounts (QNA), mainland GDP expanded, on a sea- economy is set to decline this year. Household consump- sonally adjusted basis, by 1.3 per cent from the fourth quar- tion is thus the main factor behind growth in total domestic ter of 1998 to the first quarter of this year, noticeably hig- demand and output from 1998 to 1999. Employment will her than the growth recorded during the previous four quar- probably show little change in 1999, but unemployment is ters. Growth in demand from mainland Norway, seasonal- expected to edge up through the year. Less extensive im-- ly adjusted, was also stronger in the first quarter than balances in the labour market in the period ahead compa- through the previous year. The figures on demand and pro- red with the last few years, and reduced profitability in duction into 1999 thus do not seem to confirm that the eco- parts of the business sector imply that wage growth will be nomy has already passed a cyclical peak. slightly lower in 1999 than in 1998. Support for the recom- mendations presented in the Arntsen Committee's report Mainland demand was primarily fuelled by household con- so far in this year's wage settlements point to the same. sumption in the first quarter of 1999. Brisk consumption The rise in consumer prices in 1999 is likely to be a little growth may indicate that households quickly decided to higher than in 1998, and a good one percentage point interpret the increase in interest rates in the second half of above consumer price inflation in the euro area. With a 1998 as temporary. The continued rise in household de- slight decline in imports and an oil price of about $14 a mand and in production in some service industries may, barrel through the remainder of 1999, the current account however, also be related to the time it takes before the will again show a surplus. weaker growth impetus from exports and investment spreads to the rest of the economy. According to new natio- Household income is expected to show slightly stronger nal accounts figures, these demand components exhibited growth in 2000, primarily as a result of a projected decline declining growth through 1998 and into 1999. Figures up in interest rates through this year. A slight rise in GDP to end-March this year also indicate that employment is growth among our European trading partners points to now levelling off. Moreover, it appears that the decline in moderately higher growth in Norway's traditional mer- unemployment has come to a halt. This may indicate that chandise exports. Combined with a levelling off in invest- the broadly based upturn in the period 1993-1998 is never- ment, this will contribute to some improvement of growth theless in the process of coming to an end. in the mainland economy. However, mainland GDP will also expand clearly slower in 2000 than the average for the The sharp growth in employment over several years has last 25 years, which is around 2.5 per cent. On an annual resulted in very high labour force activity and growing basis, unemployment may be slightly higher than in 1999. pressures in the labour market. In the years ahead develop- Wage growth will slow further, and the inflation will move ments in productivity will therefore probably set a clear towards inflation in the euro area. Higher petroleum ex- limit for growth in the mainland economy. However, ports will contribute to a further improvement in the cur- several factors now indicate that developments in demand rent account and to large surpluses in general government will pull the Norwegian economy this year towards growth accounts. well below the long-term average. Weaker growth among Norway's main trading partners in 1999 compared with Main indicators for the Norwegian economy last year and a deterioration in cost competitiveness over a G ow om e ious yea e ce period of several years point to continued sluggish growth in traditional merchandise exports. In addition, the orien- 199 1997 199 1999 tation of fiscal and monetary policy will have a contrac- G 9 3 1 1 3 3 1 tionary effect on the Norwegian economy in 1999, and a -mai a o way 3 3 3 5 1 1 substantial fall in petroleum investment will generate a Co sum io i ouse o s negative demand impetus to the Norwegian economy both a o - o i o ga i a io s 5 3 3 7 3 1 5 5 in 1999 and particularly next year. U em oyme a e 1 3 3 5 3 9 Co sume ice i e 1 3 3 5 1 Cu e a a ce 7 5 -1 5 1 Further, following several years with a relatively high level of investment and the completion of several major e ce o G
Economic trends Economic Survey 2/99
I e a io a eco omy
It appears that GDP growth among Norway's trading part- growth is not be likely to high enough to close the output ners will be lower in 1999 than in 1998, and then edge up gap in the EU in the period ahead. in 2000. Inflation remains very subdued. Interest rates have been reduced in Europe, but may be raised in the US Aggregated figures for the EU conceal considerable diffe- in the course of 1999. Commodity prices are expected to rences between countries. With the establishment of EMU rise as the situation in Asia gradually stabilizes, and oil and the introduction of the euro, the conversion rates of the prices have already increased sharply. euro against the participating currencies were fixed, and the responsibility for monetary policy was transferred to the ECB. The ECB's objective is low, stable inflation, and e EU the bank orients policy on the basis of average price deve- EU countries supply almost 70 per cent of Norwegian im- lopments in the euro area as a whole. The countries' fiscal ports and account for more than 75 per cent of Norwegian policies are largely influenced by the Maastricht require- exports. Economic developments in these countries are the- ments for participation in EMU and the Stability Pact. The refore very important for both growth and price develop- 11 EMU countries thus have the same interest rate, fixed ments in Norway. Furthermore, the objective of Norway's bilateral exchange rates and fairly similar fiscal policies. monetary policy is a stable krone exchange rate against the Nevertheless, the considerable differences between the eco- euro in the medium term. nomies are perhaps the most striking when considering, re- cent economic developments, with GDP growth projec- After expanding by 2.6 per cent in 1998, GDP in the EU is tions for 1999 that vary between 1.4 (Italy) and 7.2 per expected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 1999. Falling exports cent (Ireland). In the UK, which does not participate in and fiscal tightening prior to the introduction of the Econo- EMU, growth this year is estimated at 0.8 per cent. The mic and Monetary Union (EMU) on 1 January 1999 contri- forecasts for 2000 suggest a clear convergence of growth buted to slower growth from the second half of 1998 on- rates. This may partly be an indication of real convergen- wards. So far in 1999, the growth impetus from Asia has ce, but may also partly reflect a decline in the information been weak and new orders for manufacturing industry in content of such forecasts as the time horizon is extended. the EU have declined. The euro has depreciated against the dollar and several other currencies. Although in isolation, With the introduction of EMU, Germany's importance for this has stimulated exports, the business sector is still repor- Norwegian interest rates has been reduced somewhat ting low profit margins and is expected to reduce invest- inasmuch as the country is no longer a benchmark for inter- ment in 1999. However, slightly higher employment and est rate movements in Europe. The new monetary policy very low inflation have contributed to a rise in household means that interest rates shall be adapted to the inflation real income, and private consumption is expected to gene- outlook for an average of euro countries. However, as the rate stronger growth impulses through 1999 and next year. euro area's largest economy and one of our most important The reduction in interest rates by the European Central trading partners, Germany is still important for Norway. Bank (ECB) in April may point to the same. However, The sluggish trend in Germany in 1999, with projected
G g ow o ecas s o o way s mai a i g G a co sume ice g ow o o way s a e s o 2000 gi e o i e e a es mai a i g a e s, a mo ECU eu o a e e ce 2.8 2
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4 Economic Survey 2/99 Economic trends
GDP growth of 1.6-per cent, contributes to lower growth Eco omic o ecas s o o way s mai a i g a e s impetus from the EU to Norway in 1999 than in 1998. A ua e ce c a ge Germany was severely affected by the problems in Asia Cou y (S a e o o wegia e o si 1997 199 1999 and Russia, and weaker export and investment activity pointed to slower growth in the last half of 1998. Falling USA (7 1 industrial production and low investment in the business G 3 9 3 9 3 3 1 5 sector are also expected in 1999. On the other hand, it Co sume ice U em oyme a e ( e e 9 5 3 5 appears that higher private consumption, the low euro exchange rate and a stabilization of the situation in Asia a a (3 5 and Russia will boost growth in the German economy. G 1 - -1 3 Increased activity in other EU countries may also improve Co sume ice 1 - 3 - ( e e 3 1 5 the growth prospects for Germany, and GDP is expected to U em oyme a e expand by 2.6 per cent in 2000. Ge ma y (1 G 1 1 Like Germany, Italy - as a result of its pattern of trade - Co sume ice 1 9 9 7 1 5 was more exposed to the crises in Asia and Russia than the U em oyme a e ( e e 11 11 1 1 1 3 average of EU countries. In spite of historically low real a ce ( interest rates, low investment has contributed to a weak G 3 3 3 7 trend in the level of activity. Growth in private consump- Co sume ice 1 1 1 1 tion was lower than in other EU countries in 1998, partly U em oyme a e ( e e 1 5 11 11 3 1 7 because of an uncertain labour market and substantial fiscal tightening to satisfy the Maastricht requirements. In U i e Ki g om (1 5 G 3 5 1 1 1999, fiscal policy has been somewhat less tight. Due to Co sume ice3 2.8 3 3 the difficult economic situation in the country, Italy U em oyme a e ( e e 5 5 7 9 5 received in May the reluctant acceptance of other EU countries to budget larger general government deficits in I a y (3 1 5 1 1 3 1999 than called for by the Stability Pact. Continued low G Co sume ice 1 1 7 1 1 5 interest rates, increased public sector activity and declining U em oyme a e ( e e 1 3 1 3 1 1 fears of a rise in unemployment are expected to contribute to some growth in investment and private consumption in Swe e (1 7 the period ahead. In 2000, a rise in exports to other EU G 1 9 3 7 1 countries may contribute to considerably stronger GDP Co sume ice 5 - 1 U em oyme a e ( e e 5 5 5 3 growth. e ma k (7 7 France's pattern of trade shielded the country from the G 3 1 1 1 9 Asian crisis and other turbulence in the world economy, Co sume ice 1 1 U em oyme a e ( e e 7 7 3 5 7 5 while high growth in household demand and buoyant in- vestment contributed to favourable economic develop- e e e a s (5 ments in 1998. Forecasts for 1999 suggest slightly lower G 3 3 3 growth both in private consumption and in investment, and Co sume ice surveys of French industry have signalled slightly reduced U em oyme a e ( e e 5 5 3 9 1 activity in the first quarter of 1999. GDP growth is expec- Memo ted to slow to 2.3 per cent in 1999 before edging up again G a i g a e s 1 3 in 2000, fuelled in part by low interest rates. A slight in- C I a i g a e s 1 1 1 1 crease in employment does not appear to be resulting in ECU i e es a e 9 any significant reduction in France's main problem: unem- E o s a i io a goo s igu es o 199 i e ce acco i g o Mo y ployment. Unemployment in 1999 is estimated at 11.3 per u e i o E e a a e S a is ics o way e ce o a ou o ce cent of the labour force. 3 E c usi e i e es a es Sou ces Co se sus o ecas s U em oyme a es o Swe e e ma k a Unemployment in the EU is now around 10 per cent. e e e a s om OEC There are considerable national differences, from Luxem- bourg and the Netherlands with 3.1 and 4.2 per cent respec- tively in 1998, to Spain's 18.8 per cent. Unemployment is small. Within the existing agreements, structural policy is expected to edge down in most countries in 1999 and therefore a key element in efforts to combat unemploy- 2000. A common monetary policy cannot, by definition, ment. Considerable attention is now being focused on the be adapted to special conditions in the various countries. effect of various measures, including active labour market Fiscal policy is a national responsibility and may therefore policies, a tightening of unemployment benefits, etc. be used to some extent. However, the Stability Pact places strict limitations on the possibilities for conducting an ex- Two of our most important trading partners in the EU pansionary policy, and in several countries fiscal leeway is remain outside the euro area and thus have their own
Eco omic e s Economic Survey 2/99
exchange rate and monetary policy. The UK has experien- lizes. The inflation figures for April showed higher infla- ced a long period of expansion which appears to be level- tion than for several years, even when higher oil prices are ling off in 1999. The strong pound sterling has created excluded. As a result, a turnaround can not be ruled out, problems for export industries, while an easing of moneta- particularly if the exchange rate were to depreciate. ry policy has had a positive impact on household consump- tion and private investment. General government expendi- Share prices in the US have risen sharply, and there is a ture is also contributing to growth in total demand. The re- widespread perception that they are considerably over- sult appears to be a pause in growth, but in contrast to valued. The Federal Reserve announced in mid-May that it what many feared a few months ago, it looks like the UK is now more likely to raise interest rates than to lower will avoid a severe recession. Manufacturing output, how- them. Higher interest rates have a cooling effect on the eco- ever, is expected to decline by about 2 per cent in 1999. It norny, particularly through private investment. Moreover, nevertheless appears that a substantial increase in unem- US households have a high proportion of their wealth in ployment will be avoided. The positive trend is expected to equities, entailing that if higher interest rates result in fal- gather momentum in 2000, when GDP growth is projected ling share prices, household wealth will be reduced sub- at 2.1 per cent, against 0.8 per cent this year. stantially. With very low private saving, a reduction in wealth as a result of falling share prices may quickly trans- In Sweden, on the other hand, growth is robust, fuelled by late into reduced consumption. Furthermore, with low both private consumption and investment. General govern- interest rates in the euro area, higher rates in the US may ment demand has risen following a period of fiscal consoli- strengthen the dollar further, to the detriment of US compe- dation, both interest rates and inflation are low, and the titiveness. In view of large balance of trade deficits, the situation in the labour market has improved. International Federal Reserve might take this factor into account. Based conditions are expected to contribute to slower growth in on an overall picture of stable and positive developments, 1999, with growth edging up in 2000. the OECD has therefore recommended that interest rates should not be raised too quickly. Nevertheless, the uncer- tainty surrounding the US economy is perhaps greater now e US than has been the case in recent months. Developments in the US are less important for the Norwe- gian economy than developments in the EU. By virtue of its size, however, the country is very important for the in- Asia ternational economy as a whole, and thereby indirectly for Considerable attention has been focused on the Asian cri- Norway as well. For a long period the US has been the sis the last 18 months. An increasingly integrated inter- driving force in the international economy. Consumption is national economy entails that problems in some parts of high, saving is low, and the US consumer has been dubbed the world easily spread to others. Falling oil and other com- "rescuer of the world economy". The US is experiencing modity prices over the past year are largely ascribed to the its longest upturn in the postwar period, and inflation is at problems in Southeast Asia. Norwegian exports to Asia are its lowest level in thirty years. There are no clear indica- small, and the crisis therefore had little direct impact on tions that growth will level off. The combination of high the volume of Norwegian exports. At the same time, Nor- growth and subdued inflation has surprised analysts for way's exports of raw materials are considerable, and the some time, and the growth projections for 1999 have been decline in raw material prices was therefore of substantial revised upwards month after month. In May, the forecast importance. had reached 3.8 per cent. The forecasts for 2000 remain unchanged, with growth projected to slow without any Even though the most dramatic aspects of the Asian crisis dramatic effects. appear to be behind us, it takes time for the situation to im- prove. In Japan, the awaited upturn has also taken longer Along with continued brisk growth, inflation is projected than expected earlier. It now appears that GDP will con- at 2.0 per cent in 1999. Even though substantial changes to tinue to contract through 1999 and that growth in 2000 will US productivity growth seem to have occured, factors of a be marginal. Interest rates are now just above zero, and the temporary nature most likely take part in explaining the expansionary fiscal policy is already creating debt pro- favourable inflation trend. The Asian crisis and the turbu- blems for the authorities. Even so, private consumption is lence in Latin America and Russia have resulted in falling not expected to expand in 1999. In contrast to Americans, commodity prices, including oil prices. The US has there- Japanese consumers are saving an increasingly higher fore experienced a decline in import prices, entailing that share of their income. At the same time, household income domestically determined prices could rise without resulting has come under pressure as a result of wage and employ- in an increasing overall price level in the US. A stronger ment cuts. The possibility that monetary and fiscal policy dollar has also contributed to low price increases. Wage will be able to accomplish more than just halting the fall in Growth has been surprisingly low, but this may be due to the Japanese economy therefore appears to be limited. positive circles: low inflation means that smaller nominal pay increases are required to increase real wages. Oil China's situation has been cited as an element of uncertain- prices have now risen, and other commodity prices are ty for developments in the region in 1999. After continued expected to edge up as the situation in Asia gradually stabi- devaluations in the region through 1998, China has ex-
6
Economic Survey 2/99 Economic trends
e e o me s i some im o a e c a g a es S o ice, e e . 4 ou s e i g, e US o a a e Swe is k o a o a e a e e ECU ( 6 8 a e eu o ( 200 26 .6 0
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.2
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0.8
6 8 2000 200
e Swe is k o a e ECU eu o ( ig a is e US o a e ECU eu o — ou s e i g e ECU eu o — A ua a e age S o ice Sou ces: is o ica igu es: o ges a k. o ecas s: Co se sus o ecas s. Sou ce: e o eum I e ige ce Week y.
A umi ium ice. 0 Commo i y ices o e wo ma ke . 0 2000 o a ase i e . = 00 o a ase i ices. 0 = 00 20 40
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00 80 0 0 80 60 0 2 4 6 8 2000 0 — o a , e c . e e gy aw ma e ia s 60 I us ia commo i ies 0 2 4 6 8 — o e ous me a s Sou ce: WWA I s i u u Wi sc a s o sc u g. Sou ce: Wo Me a S a is ics.
perienced a strong revaluation of its currency in relation to but the US dollar, the Swedish krona and pound sterling neighbouring countries. The OECD considers the situation are also important. All three currencies have appreciated in the country to be fairly favourable, but uncertain. If against the euro since it was launched in January this year. growth slows, it is conceivable that the authorities will As a consequence the Norwegian krone has appreciated devalue to stimulate exports. In May, however, the OECD less against a trade-weighted currency basket than against presented its calculations which show that any devaluation the euro so far in 1999. The figure on exchange rate move- of China's and Hong Kong's currencies will have a limited ments reproduces forecasts indicating that both pound ster- impact on the US and Europe. With weak direct Nor- ling and the dollar will gradually depreciate against the wegian connections to the area, it is therefore likely that euro. This development may possibly be linked to the any effect on Norway will be limited. UK's need for a depreciation if the country is to join EMU with a competitive exchange rate, and the outlook for approximately the same growth in the US and the EU in E c a ge a es 2000. At the moment, however, growth in the US is Norwegian monetary policy shall be oriented towards a sta- stronger than in the EU, and with prospects for widening, ble krone exchange rate against the euro. For Norwegian rather than narrowing, interest rate differentials between exports and imports, however, it is not only the exchange the regions, it is not given that the path suggested in the rate against the euro, but against the entire trade-weighted figure will be realized. currency basket that is important. The euro is the most dominating currency in the trade-weighted exchange rate, Economic trends Economic Survey 2/99
Oi ma ke they predict can therefore not be ruled out. Stabilization The spot price of Brent Blend averaged a little less than followed by a weak rise nevertheless appears reasonable. $13 a barrel in 1998. The oil price fell from a level of $15 An improvement in the situation in Asia, continued growth a barrel in September last year to a little less than $10 a in the US and a weak upturn in the EU imply that the de- barrel in February 1999. Since then, the oil price has risen, mand for commodities will rise. Stocks are relatively and at the beginning of May stood at $16 a barrel. small, and higher demand should therefore result in higher prices. With a continued abundant supply, however, major Several factors contributed to low oil prices at the begin- effects on prices are not expected. The EU countries' ning of 1999. First, economic problems in Asia contributed agreement on reforming the Common Agricultural Policy to low demand in the region. In addition, a relatively mild (CAP) was substantially moderated and protracted in rela- winter resulted in moderate demand for heating oil in the tion to the original proposals, and is therefore unlikely to OECD area. This resulted in only a small reduction in oil have any effect this year or next. stocks through the winter of 1998/1999, at a time when stocks are normally reduced considerably. This took place in spite of the decision by OPEC and various other count- ries to reduce production by about 2.5 million barrels a day in 1998.
Oil prices began to drift up in February this year after OPEC announced new production cuts. In March, the cartel decided to reduce production by 1.7 million barrels a day. In addition, Norway, Mexico, Russia and Oman decided that they would reduce production by altogether 0.4 million barrels a day. The war in Kosovo may also have been a factor behind the increase in oil prices the last few months.
According to forecasts from the IEA (International Energy Agency), oil stocks will be reduced in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Demand is expected to increase on the assumptions that the OECD area experiences a normal- ly cold winter and that the economic problems in Asia do not worsen. If OPEC continues to fulfil between 80 and 90 per cent of the reductions in production that it has agreed upon, and Iraq maintains its current oil exports within the limits stipulated in the agreement with the UN, stocks may be reduced by on average 1.4 million barrels a day through the last half of 1999. This will reduce oil stocks by about
250 million barrels. Petroleum Intelligence We* ekly indi- cates that stocks must be reduced by a little more than 300 million barrels before oil prices rise further. Based on such assumptions, the forecasts indicate that oil prices will re- main at the current level the remainder of the year, with prices edging up later in the first quarter of 2000.
Commo i y ices Other commodity prices also fell dramatically through 1998, albeit not as much as oil prices. The fall in prices can be linked to both an abundant supply in the world mar- ket and to low demand in the wake of the Asian crisis. The HWWA (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung-Hamburg) ex- pects prices to level off during 1999, showing an average annual decline of 7 per cent compared with 1998, against a drop of 13 per cent from 1997 to 1998. Prices are expected to edge up in 2000, returning to the level prevailing at the end of 1998. The HWWA assumes, however, GDP growth of 2.2 per cent in the OECD area in 1999, compared with Consensus Forecasts' projection of 1.3 per cent. The possi- bility that the fall in prices this year may be greater than
8
Economic Survey 2/99 Economic trends
o wegia eco omy
e e o me s so a i Co sum io i ouse o s. Seasonally a us e o ume i ices, = 00 According to preliminary figures from the quarterly national accounts (QNA), mainland GDP expanded, on a 115 180 seasonally adjusted basis, by 1.3 per cent from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the first quarter of 1999, noticeably 160 higher than the growth recorded during the previous four 110 quarters. Growth in demand from mainland Norway, 140 seasonally adjusted, was also stronger in the first quarter of 105 this year than through 1998. The figures on demand and 120 production into 1999 thus do not seem to describe an eco- nomy that has already passed a cyclical peak. The growth 100 100 in mainland demand was primarily fuelled by household consumption in the first quarter of 1999. The sharp growth 95 80 in consumption may indicate that households quickly de- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 cided to interpret the increase in interest rates towards the — Excl. purchase of transport equipment end of last year as temporary. The continued rise in this - - Purchase of transport equipment (right scale) demand component and in production in some service Source: Statistics Norway. industries may, however, also be related to the time it takes before the weaker growth impetus from exports and invest- ment spreads to the rest of the economy. These demand G oss i e ca i a o ma io , mai a components exhibited declining growth through 1998 and o way. into 1999. Figures up to end-March this year also indicate Seasonally a us e o ume i ices, = 00 that employment is now levelling off, and it appears that 150 the decline in unemployment has come to a halt. This may 140 be an indication that the broadly based upturn in the period 1993-1998 is in the process of coming to an end. 130 120 On the consumption side, it was particularly household spending on goods that increased in the first quarter of 110 1999, following a sluggish trend towards the end of last ioo year that was probably related to the increase in interest rates. The fact that the seasonally adjusted growth in house- 90 hold purchases of cars from the fourth quarter of 1998 to 80 1997 1998 1999 the first quarter of 1999 was positive, despite a decline in 1995 1996 the number of new car registrations in the same period, is — Total —— Dwellings due to the national accounting practice that takes into ac- - - - - Manufacturing count that passenger cars registered for the business sector Source: Statistics Norway. are sold to households after some time. The counterpart to the rise in this component of household demand is thus a decline of the same magnitude in a component of gross in- E o s. Seaso a y a us e o ume i ices, = 00 vestment in the business sector. New car registration figu- res in April and May point to a moderate decline in house- 130 hold car purchases in the second quarter. 125
The assessment of developments in other components of 120 spending on goods is hampered by the introduction of the 115 return scheme for white and brown goods with effect from March and the fact that Easter felt partly in March and part- i io ly in April, while last year the holiday period was entirely 105 in April. Preliminary, seasonally adjusted figures from the retail sales index indicate, however, that purchases up to 100 end-April remained fairly stable at a level that was about 95 3 per cent above the average for 1998, a weaker growth 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 than what is implied by developments in the consumption — Total export of goods, excluding cars, in the quarterly national accounts. — - - Export of traditional goods Source: Statistics Norway.
9
Economic trends Economic Survey 2/99
Mac oeco omic i ica o s. G ow om e ious e io u ess o e wise o e . e ce
Seaso a y a us e
1997 199 9 9 3 9 99 1
ema a ou u 3.1Co sum io i ouse o s a o - o i o ga i a io s 3 7 1 - 7
Ge e a go e me co sum io 3 7 1 - 1
G oss i e i es me 15 1 1 - 7 3 7 -1
- mai a o way 1 -1 9 1 9 - 9 - e o eum ac i i ies 1 15.6 5 7 1 9 3 1 3 - 1 9 i a omes ic ema om mai a o way 5.2 3 1 -
E o s 5 7 5 - -3 1 3 -
- c u e oi a a u a gas 1 -3 -7 5 -7 5 -1
- a i io a goo s 3 - - 1
Im o s 1 9 1 - - 5 7 - 3
- a i io a goo s 1 9 1 1 - 1 5 3
G oss omes ic o uc 3 1 7 - 5 1 1
- mai a o way 3 3 1 - 5 1 3
a ou ma ke s 2.4Ma - ou s wo ke 1 - 9 9 - Em oye e so s 9 3 1 5 1 - 1 a ou o ce 1 1 1 U em oyme a e e e 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 3
ices Co sume ice i e 5 3 3 3 3 E o ices a i io a goo s 5 1 - 7 - 7 - Im o ices a i io a goo s -1 1 3 - 3 - -1
a a ce o ayme Cu e a a ce i OK 5 1 -1 3 - 9 - 9 -1 1 3
Memo a um i ems (u a us e , e e Mo ey ma ke a e (3 mo I O 3 5 7 5 7 9 7 1 A e age o owi g a e 7 7 9 7 9 5 C u e oi ice OK ( e e 7 135 9 3 1 95 1 7 Im o weig e k o e e c a ge a e cou ies 199 1 99 5 1 1 7 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 9 OK e ECU/e uo 7 53
igu es o e o eum ac i i ies ow co e s e sec o s oi a gas e ac io o e a s o ia i e i es a se ice ac i i ies i ci e a o oi a gas e ac io Co sum io i ouse o s a o - o i o ga i a io s + ge e a go e me co sum io + g oss i e ca i a o ma io i mai a o way 3 igu es• o 1997 a 199 a e om e a io a accou s e qua e y igu es a e om S a is ics o way s a ou o ce su ey ( S si ce e ew qua e y a io a accou se ies o em oyme a e oo s o o seaso a a us me 4 Acco i g o S a is ics o way s a ou o ce su ey ( S 5 e ce age c a ge om e ious yea ouse o s o owi g a e i i a e i a cia i s i u io s 7 A e age s o ice e e Sou ces S a is ics o way a o ges a k
Continued brisk growth in household demand has also had lower than at the cyclical peak in the mid-1980s. Manufac- an impact on prices for existing dwellings. After rising by turing investment fell markedly in the first quarter, while nearly 8 per cent between the first quarter of 1998 and the general government investment appears to remain at a high first quarter of 1999, these prices on a national basis were level. Petroleum investment was higher in the first quarter about 3 per cent above the average for last year. As a result of 1999 than in the same period last year, but showed a of problems with construction statistics, information about seasonally adjusted decline compared with the level new housing starts into 1999 is not available. It is likely, through the last three quarters of 1998. however, that the historically low growth in the housing stock over the past few years has contributed to the rise in Measured at constant prices and adjusted for normal sea- prices. sonal variations, traditional merchandise exports have re- mained stable since the third quarter of 1998. Value data Mainland investment fell from the fourth quarter of 1998 from external trade statistics show that between the first to the first quarter of this year, with revised national ac- quarter of 1998 and the first quarter of 1999 there was a counts figures indicating a levelling off in this demand shift in exports from the EU to countries in Asia, a icu a component through last year. As a share of mainland GDP, y Japan. The share of exports to the US, on the other the level of investment in 1998 was 5 percentage points hand, has shown little change. Export prices, measured in
10
Economic Survey 2/99 Eco omic e s
Norwegian kroner, have declined slightly over the last G oss omes ic o uc . Seasonally a us e o ume i ices, . 00 three quarters. The sharp decline in commodity prices on the world market during the last three to four years has 4 thus so far not had a major impact on Norwegian export 2 prices. This can partly be ascribed to the depreciation of the Norwegian krone against the US dollar, and gradually 0 other currencies as well, in the same period. The fact that 08
Norwegian export prices appear to be shadowing changes 06 in world market prices with a lag points to the same, but may also mean that it will take some time before the in- 04 crease in commodity prices through 1999 feeds fully 02 through to Norwegian export prices. 00
8 The sluggish trend in mainland investment and traditional 6 8 merchandise exports through 1998 and into 1999 is reflec- o a — — Ma u ac u i g ted in both a clear slowdown in traditional merchandise — Mai a o way imports and in developments in some domestic production Sou ce: S a is ics o way. sectors. Whereas output growth remained high in service industries through 1998 and into 1999, there are signs of stagnation in production in manufacturing and other goods- producing industries. In manufacturing, seasonally adjus- ted production figures actually showed a rise in the first a ou o ce, em oyme a um e o ma ou s wo ke e week. 8 quarter, but output nevertheless remained below the level Mi io s. Seaso a y a us e a smoo e i ices. from the third quarter of 1998. New orders and order back- 2.4 .8 logs point to slightly lower manufacturing production in yos .80 the period ahead. Expectations of such developments are 2. also reflected in Statistics Norway's general business ten- . dency survey for manufacturing industry over the past year 2.2 up to the end of the first quarter of 1999. . 0 2. .6 For some service industries, changes in employment are 2.0 used as an indicator of production trends when drawing up .60 the preliminary quarterly national accounts figures. The . . strong seasonally adjusted growth in production in service 8 0 industries thus indicates that employment continues to in- crease in this sector of the economy. In the first quarter, — Em oye Ma ou s e week ( ig a sca e growth in the supply of services was generally higher than — a ou o ce the growth in demand, as registered in the quarterly natio- Sou ce: S a is ics o way. nal accounts. One possible explanation for this is that growth in the use of services as a factor of production (pro- duct input) may be underestimated. In such an event, z,growth in GDP is overestimated. It is also conceivable, however, that the preliminary national accounts figures do U em oye a um e o aca cies, mo y igu es not fully capture the use of services for consumption and e ce o a ou o ce. Seas a . a smoo e investment. .0
Even though employment in service industries appears to 0.8 have continued to increase in the first quarter of 1999, the sharp growth in total employment over the last five years 0.6 slowed markedly through 1998. According to seasonally 0.4 adjusted figures from Statistics Norway's Labour Force Survey (LFS), the total number employed showed little 0.2 change from the third quarter of 1998 to the first quarter of 1999. Growth in the labour force has also slowed over the 0.0 past year, and according to the LFS the number of unem- 8 0 ployed increased moderately from the low level seen in the U em oye (Em oyme Su ey third quarter of last year. The sum of registered unemploy- eg. u em . a a ici a s i measu es ed at employment offices and persons participating in ordi- aca cies ( ig a sca e nary labour market programmes has remained fairly stable ackwa s a us e o eak i e se ies om a ua y . Sou ces: e i ec o a e o a ou a S a is ics o way. over the last six months. As a share of the labour force,
1 1 Eco omic e s Economic Survey 2/99 however, this unemployment indicator has declined slight- a relatively sharp rise in consumption into 1999 and a ly, while LFS unemployment has levelled off. The number slightly lower reduction in petroleum investment than pre- of vacancies at employment offices was a little higher in viously assumed, mainland GDP growth will probably be April and May than in the first quarter, but less than the slightly higher than estimated in our last quarterly report. peak level recorded in the third quarter of last year. After showing a seasonally adjusted decline through 1996 and Employment, however, is not likely to increase to any ex- 1997, the number of persons laid off (entirely or in part) tent from 1998 to 1999, and unemployment is expected to appears to have resumed an upward trend during the last edge up through the year. Developments so far this year six months. and estimates for production during the remainder of the year indicate, however, that unemployment will rise some- As an average for the first four months of 1999, the consu- what later than projected in Economic Survey 1/99. Less mer price index was 2.3 per cent higher than in the same extensive imbalances in the labour market in the period period last year. The year-on-year rise in prices in April ahead compared with the last few years and weaker profita- was 2.5 per cent. Changes in prices for petrol, food, and bility in parts of the business sector nevertheless imply clothing and footwear contributed to pushing up price infla- slightly lower wage growth in 1999 than in 1998. Support tion, while electricity prices and telecommunication rates for the recommendations in the Arntsen Committee's re- had the opposite effect. The harmonized index of consu- port so far in this year's wage settlements point to the mer prices rose by 2 per cent from the first quarter of 1998 same. The rise in consumer prices in 1999 is likely to be to the first quarter of 1999, about 1 percentage point more slightly higher than last year, and a good one percentage than in the EU. point higher than consumer price inflation in the euro area. With a slight decline in imports and an oil price of about The current account of the balance of payments showed a $14 a barrel through the remainder of 1999, the current surplus of NOK 1.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, account will again show a surplus. a decline of NOK 6.4 billion from the same period in 1998, but nearly NOK 17.5 billion higher than in the Household income is expected to show slightly stronger fourth quarter of last year. The decline in the current growth next year, primarily as a result of a projected de- account surplus between the first quarter of 1998 and first cline in interest rates through 1999. Slightly higher GDP quarter of this year is entirely ascribable to the lower value growth among our European trading partners points to of oil and natural gas exports, while reduced imports were moderately higher growth in traditional merchandise ex- an important factor behind the improvement in the current ports. A fiscal policy that is more or less cyclically neutral account from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the first quarter has been assumed. It is likely that petroleum investment of this year. The rise in crude oil prices from mid-March will generate a markedly stronger negative demand im- up to mid-May points to a slightly higher current account petus next year compared with 1999, but the decline in surplus in the current quarter. mainland investment may level off to some extent. Along with the moderately stronger growth in traditional merchandise exports, this will contribute to slightly higher Ou ook o e emai e o a growth in the mainland economy. Mainland GDP will, 2000 however, continue to expand at a noticeably slower pace in Growth in the mainland economy is expected to be weaker 2000 than the average for the last 25 years, which is about in the remainder of 1999, particularly in the second half of 2.5 per cent. On an annual basis, unemployment may be the year, than through 1998 and into the first quarter of this somewhat higher than in 1999. Wage growth will slow year. Several factors will contribute to this: further, and price inflation will move towards the rate of inflation in the euro area. Higher petroleum exports will • In the Revised National Budget for 1999, the Govern- contribute to a further improvement in the current account ment reaffirms that fiscal policy should have a moderate- and to large surpluses in general government accounts. ly contractionary effect on the Norwegian economy. • The use of monetary policy instruments through the second half of 1998 and first half of 1999 will contribute Exports to curbing demand and production this year. The overall outlook for the international economy now • Weaker growth among Norway's main trading partners appears to be more favourable than a few months ago. in 1999 and a deterioration in cost competitiveness over Forecasts for GDP growth for Norway's main trading part- several years point to continued sluggish growth in tradi- ners have been revised upwards both for 1999 and 2000, tional merchandise exports. and average import growth in these countries is estimated • Petroleum investment will make a negative contribution at 4.7 and 5.9 per cent respectively. However, develop- to demand in 1999. ments in relative labour costs, measured in a common cur- rency, have generally been to Norwegian manufacturing The factors mentioned above come in addition to a turn- industry's disadvantage since 1994. The exception is 1998 around in investment in the mainland economy. Household when the weakening of manufacturing industry's exchange consumption will therefore be the main force behind rate in the second half of the year counteracted the high growth in total domestic demand from 1998 to 1999. With wage growth. High cost inflation in Norway has contri-
12
Economic Survey 2/99 Economic trends
Mai eco omic i ica o s. 8 2000. Accou s a o ecas s Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise noted
1999 Accou s 199 S Mo S Mo
ema a ou u Co sum io i ouse o s a o - o i
2.2o ga i a io s 3 1 5 1/ 5 1 3/
Ge e a go e me co sum io 3 7 1 1 1 1/ 1 5 1 3 1/
G oss i e i es me 1 -7 5 - 7 -9 1/ - 9 -1 -9 3/
- e o eum ac i i ies 5 7 -1 -1 7 -17 - 5 -3 5 - 5
- mai a o way - 9 -5 3 -7 - 5 - 9 - 3/
- i ms -9 1 -5 - -5 1 -3 7 -
- ousi g - - 1 -5 7 -5
- ge e a go e me 3 - - -5 - - 9
ema om mai a o way / 3 1 3 1/ 1 3 3/
S ock ui i g 0.9 1 - 1
E o s 5 1/ 7 9 9 7 1/ 3 - c u e oi a a u a gas -3 3 7 7 15 1 15
- a i io a goo s 3 1/ 3 5 3 3/
Im o s 9 1 -1 9 - 9 -1/ - - 3 3/
- a i io a goo s 9 -1 - 7 -1/ 5 3/
G oss omes ic o uc 1 1 3 1 3/ 3 1 3 1 1/
- mai a o way 3 3 5 7 1/ 1 1 -1/
a ou ma ke
Em oye e so s 3 - 3 1/ - 3 - 3 -3/ U em oyme a e ( e e 3 3 5 3 5 3 1/ 3 9 3 1/
ices a wages
Wages e s a a ma -yea 5 5 1/ 5 1/ 3 5 3 3/
Co sume ice i e 3 5 1/ 1 1 3/
E o ices a i io a goo s 1 - 9 -1 3 -3/ 3 1
Im o ices a i io a goo s 1 3 -1 - 9 -1/ 9 1 -1
ea ice we i gs 5 1 5 5
a a ce o ayme
Cu e a a ce ( i OK -1 3 3 7 5 - 9 1 9
Cu e a a ce ( e ce o G -1 5 -1/ 1 5 1/
Memo a um i ems ouse o sa i gs a io 5 5 7 7 1/ 7 1/ Mo ey ma ke a e ( e e 5 7 1/ 5 41/2 A e age o owi g a e ( e e 3 7 C u e oi ice OK ( e e 9 1 7 1 7 117 91 I e a io a ma ke g ow 3 7 5 9 Im o weig e k o e e c a ge a e ( cou ies 5 -1 3 - 5
1 Co sum io i ouse o s a o - o i o ga i a io s + ge e a go e me + g oss i e ca i a o ma io i mai a o way C a ge i s ock ui i g e ce o G 3 ouse o s o owi g a e i i a e i a cia i s i u io s A e age o wegia oi o uc io 5 I c easi g i e im ies e ecia io Sou ces S a is ics o way (S Mi is y o i a ce e i e as o a u s e 1999 (Mo o ges a k e ge og k e i 1999/1 (
buted to a deterioration in manufacturing industry's compe- Monetary policy and developments in interest and titive position, and preliminary figures indicate that Norwe- exchange rates gian manufacturing lost market shares on export markets Since the beginning of 1993 and up to the end of the first in 1998. So far this year the krone has appreciated, and in quarter of 1998 monetary policy generally had an ex- our model-based calculations we assume unchanged ex- pansionary effect. To counter growing depreciation pres- change rates from now until the end of 2000. As it appears sures on the Norwegian krone, Norges Bank doubled its that wage growth from 1998 to 1999 will also be higher in key rates from the end of March to mid-August last year. Norway than among our main trading partners, a further Given this orientation of monetary policy, it was consider- loss of market shares is likely in the period ahead. Growth ed likely that growth in the Norwegian economy would in traditional exports is thus expected to be lower than the over time be dampened. Money market rates rose to a level growth in trading partners' imports both in 1999 and 2000. that was nearly 4 percentage points higher than correspon- ding ECU rates, and financial institutions' lending and de-
13
Economic trends Economic Survey 2/99
E o s posit rates shadowed movemerits in money market rates e ce age growth with a slight lag. At the end of 1998 the average lending rate in private financial institutions was a good 9.5 per cent, 3.5 percentage points higher than the level at end- 1997. So far this year Norges Bank has lowered its key rates by a total of 1.5 percentage points. Money market rates have fallen by about the same margin, and approxi- mately interest rates in private financial institutions are now 1 percentage points below the level at the beginning of the year.
In spite of Norges Bank's interest rate reductions, Nor- wegian money market rates are still nearly 4 percentage points higher than the level of corresponding euro rates. The interest rate differential between Norway and other o a a i io a goo s countries is thus as high as in the period following the up- Sou ce: S a is ics o way ward adjustment of Norwegian rates through the second and third quarters of last year. The exchange rate between the Norwegian krone and the ECU/euro, however, is now approximately back to the level prevailing in the period February/April last year, ie close to the "strong" end of the Co sum io band around which the exchange rate should be stabilized, e ce age growth according to the existing guidelines. It is likely that the rise in oil prices during the last few months is an important reason for the swift and fairly substantial appreciation of the krone.
As in earlier quarterly reports, we assume that Norges Bank will in the period ahead reduce the interest rate diffe- rential against the euro in order to counter a further appre- ciation of the krone as the current account position gradual- ly improves. However, because the central bank has re- peatedly emphasized the flexibility of the Exchange Rate Regulation during the last five months, we have revised our views concerning how quickly interest rates will be reduced. The interpretation of the following sentence in Co sum . i ouse . a o o i o g. Ge e a go e me co sum io the Regulation is considered particularly important: "In the Sou ce: S a is ics o way event of significant changes in the exchange rate, moneta- ry policy instruments will be oriented with a view to retur- ning the exchange rate over time to its initial range". First, Norges Bank has stressed that the initial range should be considered a broadly defined central rate around which the G oss i e ca i a o ma io krone exchange rate can fluctuate. Second, the central e ce age growth bank has indicated that changes in the exchange rate are 20 only to be perceived as significant if they influence expec- tations concerning price and cost inflation in such a way that exchange rate changes become self-reinforcing. Third, the Bank has stated that in the event of significant ex- 0 change rate changes, the following factors will be emphasi- zed: 1) that price and cost inflation should not exceed the level aimed at by euro countries, and 2) that monetary poli- 0 cy in itself shall not contribute to deflationary recessions.
Both the increase in interest rates and the appreciation of the exchange rate have a contractionary effect on the Nor- 0 2 4 6 8 2000 wegian economy. Against this background, we consider it likely that Norges Bank will counter a further appreciation o a Mai a o way of the krone by lowering interest rates. It is still uncertain, Sou ce: S a is ics o way however, how Norges Bank will operationalize its defini- tion of "significant exchange rate changes", and this uncer-
4 Economic Survey 2/99 Eco omic e s
tainty influences our assessment of the use of instruments. G oss omes ic o uc e ce age g ow It is also uncertain how exchange market participants will respond to the Bank's description of its future pattern of 6 behaviour and how they evaluate the outlook for Norway's external account. In the light of this and Norges Bank's emphasis on achieving price and cost inflation that does not exceed the level aimed at by euro countries, we have in this report assumed that Norwegian interest rates will de- cline more slowly this year than envisaged in Economic Survey 1199. It is also assumed that it may take longer than expected earlier before the interest rate differential be- tween Norway and the euro area is again on a par with the inflation differential. Against this background, we have now assumed that the Norwegian three-month rate will be 2 4 6 8 2000 about 4.5 per cent next year. This is expected to result in o a an average interest rate the differential against euro of near- Mai a o way ly 1.5 percentage points in 2000, while the inflation diffe- Sou ce: S a is ics o way rential is estimated at about half a percentage point. The projected path for money market rates in the period ahead will probably result in an increase in the average lending rate of private financial institutions of 1 percentage point from 1998 to 1999, and a decline of 2 percentage points a ou ma ke e ce age c a ge next year, to a level of 6.4 per cent. 8 We have assumed that these movements in interest rates will be compatible with an approximately unchanged rate 6 of exchange between the Norwegian krone and the euro in the period ahead. In such an event the krone will appreci- 4 ate by 1.7 per cent against the ECU/euro from 1998 to 1999 following a depreciation of 5.5 per cent the previous 2 year. If the rate of exchange between the euro and other currencies of importance to Norwegian imports also re- mains constant in the period ahead, the import-weighted krone exchange rate will appreciate by about 1.3 per cent 2 2 4 6 8 2000 from 1998 to 1999, and by 0.5 per cent next year. Due, in part, to the sharp depreciation of many Asian currencies Em oye e so s against the ECU last year, this exchange rate index only U em ome a e( e e A . o s a . e . om 6. depreciated by 2.2 per cent from 1997 to 1998. If the US Sou ce: S a is ics o way dollar and pound sterling should gradually depreciate against the euro, this will in isolation contribute to a further appreciation of the import-weighted krone exchan- ge rate. However, with the possibility of a rise in short US interest rates and perhaps a decline in the euro interest rate Co sume ice i ices e ce age g ow as well, this scenario must be considered less probable than earlier. .0
4. Prices for Norwegian merchandise imports from OECD countries, measured in foreign currency, increased by an 4.0 estimated 1.5 per cent through the period 1996-1998. In . these three years the import-weighted krone exchange rate .0 depreciated by about the same margin, while prices for Norwegian imports of traditional goods rose by less than 2. 0.5 per cent. The OECD has estimated that member coun- 2.0 tries' export prices will as a whole not increase to any ex- . tent in 1999, but will then rise by about 1 per cent in 2000. .0 On the basis of this projection and the exchange rate 2 4 6 8 2000 assumptions described above, import prices for traditional o way goods are projected to decline by 1.4 per cent from 1998 to a i g a e s 1999, followed by a rise of 0.9 per cent next year. Sou ce: S a is ics o way
15 Economic trends Economic Survey 2/99
Moderate tightening of fiscal policy this year Households In contrast to monetary policy, which until last autumn had In the light of the rise in interest rates through 1998, an expansionary effect, fiscal policy has to some extent growth in household consumption in the first quarter was contributed to curbing growth in the Norwegian economy remarkably strong. It is natural to view this as a sign that during this cyclical upturn. Measured by the Ministry of households — in line with our estimates and those of others Finance's fiscal policy indicator, however, the tightening — look upon the high level of interest rates as a temporary effect was reduced from one year to the next until end- phenomenon. Our projections entail a decline in the aver- 1998. For 1999, the Government estimates in the Revised age household lending rate in private financial institutions National Budget that the fiscal programme will contribute from over 9 per cent in the first quarter of 1999 to less than to a tightening equivalent to about 0.5 per cent of mainland 6.5 per cent in the second half of next year. Since house- GDP, slightly less than in the budget proposal of last holds have more debt than assets at floating rates, and the autumn. The approved budget entails that indirect tax return on shares and bonds has not moved in step with len- increases will make less of a contribution to price inflation ding rates, the change in interest rates entails a pronounced this year than in 1998. rise in households' net interest expenses from 1998 to 1999, and a decline from 1999 to 2000. The change in net Our projections for 1999 are based on the Government's interest expenses thereby contributes to curbing growth in programme. All in all, this results in an estimated real household real disposable income this year, while it will growth in general government consumption, investment push up income growth next year. Developments in real and transfers to households of a good 2 per cent. The esti- wages and employment will, irrespective of this, contri- mates for next year are based on the assumption of un- bute to noticeably lower income growth both in 1999 and changed real tax rates and an aggregate real growth in the 2000 than in 1998. three above-mentioned items that is slightly higher than the estimate for this year. Spending growth will thus be From 1997 to 1998 household income increased at a consider- approximately on a par with the underlying trend rate of ably faster pace than consumption, and the saving ratio rose growth in mainland GDP. by about 1.5 percentage points. The saving ratio is projected to fall this year and then edge up next year, to a level close to the average for the period 1992-1998. This path entails that Petroleum activities: lower investment, but households allow consumption to fluctuate less than income gradually higher production through the period, which is in line with previous experience. Developments in petroleum investment are of considerable Net lending will remain at a relatively high level through the importance to the Norwegian economy. In 1998, this in- period, and households' net assets will continue to increase at vestment corresponded to more than 8 per cent of main- a faster pace their their income. land GDP. This investment is projected to decline by about 10 per cent in 1999 and by 25 per cent in 2000, i.e. a slight- ly smaller reduction both years compared with the develop- Declining investment in most sectors ment assumed by the Government in the Revised National Investment is expected to be the main factor behind the Budget. The projected decline entails a negative demand cyclical downturn. It appears that investment will fall in impetus corresponding to about 0.8 per cent of mainland most sectors in mainland Norway as well as in the petro- GDP this year and 1.9 per cent next year. We assume that leum sector, and the prospect of sluggish economic deve- the decline in both years will be strongest for import-inten- lopments can largely be ascribed to this timing. Investment sive investment, entailing that the negative effects for the in the economy as a whole is expected to be reduced by Norwegian economy will be slightly less than the calcula- 7.5 per cent this year and by 8.9 per cent in 2000. In the tions above would imply. mainland economy, manufacturing investment will proba- bly fall sharply this year, a development supported by Sta- The Government's production limitations will contribute tistics Norway's investment intentions survey. This survey to a very moderate increase in petroleum production in provides far more uncertain indications of developments in 1999. In the calculations, the current production limita- 2000, but our calculations point to approximately zero tions are continued in 2000. The completion of a number growth from the previous year. Investment in private ser- of new fields, however, will give a substantial rise in pro- vices is also expected to decline substantially in the period duction next year. ahead.
In the calculations in this report, it is assumed that crude According to the calculations, housing investment will de- oil prices will be somewhat lower in the second half of cline by 4.1 per cent in 1999. The decline in interest rates 1999 than in the last two months. On an annual basis, the and substantial rise in prices for existing dwellings as well spot price of Brent Blend is expected to be NOK 106 a as excess capacity in the construction industry are factors barrel in 1999, NOK 10 above the average price for 1998 that may contribute to a marked increase in housing invest- and NOK 10 below the price in April/May. In 2000, oil ment from 1999 to 2000. After reaching a very high level prices, measured in Norwegian kroner, are expected to be in the course of the previous two years, general govern- negligibly higher than this year. ment investment is expected to show a moderate decline this year and next.
16 Economic Survey 2/99 Economic trends
Weak growth in the mainland economy in 1999, earlier. This in turn is related to the report submitted by the slightly higher in 2000 Arntsen Committee, where most of the large labour market Mainland GDP is projected to move on a sluggish trend organizations agreed that pay increases should be limited the remainder of 1999, with annual growth down to 0.5 per so that annual wage growth could be reduced to approxi- cent. The prospect of a decline in investment in many pro- mately 4.5 per cent. So far, this approach appears to have duction sectors in the period ahead is the main driving been virtually fully accepted in the wage settlements. force behind this, but traditional merchandise exports are Inasmuch as the wage carry-over into 1999, according to also expected to be weak. It is thus primarily the level of the Technical Committee on Income Settlements, was a activity in the construction sector and manufacturing good 3 per cent, and wage drift for many groups is normal- industry that will be adversely affected, while output ly considerable, this entailed low pay increases. Our projec- growth in service sectors will remain at a higher level. tion for wage growth of as much as 5 per cent is related to Value added in the petroleum production sector and ocean the fact that "approximately" can quickly entail a few extra transport will probably increase at a faster pace from 1998 tenths of a point and that some of the large groups of em- to 1999 than mainland GDP, entailing that total GDP may ployees who are not covered by the wage settlements may expand by 1.3 per cent. record slightly higher wage growth. Moreover, it is con- ceivable that wage drift for some groups that were covered Activity in the construction sector and manufacturing by the settlements will be higher than assumed. industry is also expected to be sluggish in 2000. However, slightly higher general government demand as well as a The moderate wage settlements in 1999 also point to rela- shift in investment demand to goods that are produced in tively moderate wage growth in 2000. First, price inflation Norway will probably contribute to a slightly smaller de- will be lower than it would otherwise have been and cline in these industries, entailing that mainland GDP will second, the carry-over into 2000 will probably be con- expand at a slightly faster pace than this year. In 2000, a siderably lower than into 1999. sharp increase in petroleum production is expected to re- sult in GDP growth of more than 3 per cent. There is one more working day in 1999 than in 1998, indi- cating that wages per normal man-year will on an annual basis rise more than wages per man-hour. A continuation Labour market of the trend towards increased paid absences, however, The strong growth in employment in recent years has now may counteract this effect. In 2000, on the other hand, come to a halt and the weak production trend will result in there will be two fewer working days than this year, a fac- a slight decline in employment through the second half of tor which may contribute to noticeably higher wage 1999 and into 2000. The situation varies considerably, growth measured per man-hour than measured per normal however, between individual sectors and reflects differen- man-year. The growth in wages per normal man-year is ces in production developments. The decline in employ- estimated at 3.5 per cent in 2000. ment is relatively substantial in manufacturing industry, particularly in the segment with extensive deliveries to the In April, the consumer price index was 2.5 per cent higher petroleum industry. The sluggish employment trend will than in the same month one year earlier. The rate of in- contribute to reducing growth in the labour supply, crease in the consumer price index is expected to remain at measured by number of persons, in relation to the level approximately this level the remainder of the year. In implied by demographic factors. This will result in a very 2000, the rise in import prices for consumption-related moderate rise in the labour supply in the period ahead, and goods is expected to remain low which, combined with unemployment will edge up. As an average for the year, higher productivity gains and lower wage growth, will the unemployment rate is now estimated at 3.5 per cent in contribute to reducing the rate of price inflation. 1999 and 3.9 per cent in 2000. As a result of a fairly high proportion of foreign workers in such industries as con- struction, there is considerable uncertainty associated with Improvement in the current account developments in the labour supply in the period ahead. If a — particularly in 2000 decline in employment particularly affects foreign labour, In 1998, Norway recorded a current account deficit for the this will curb the impact on unemployment. Another first time in the 1990s. This year the current account is again element of uncertainty is related to labour force participa-. expected to show a surplus, with an improvement of about tion among older workers, partly as a result of the expan- NOK 23 billion compared with 1998. A further improvement sion of the early retirement scheme. is expected in 2000, with the surplus reaching nearly NOK 47 billion. The improvement in the current account balance is primarily a result of the improvement in the balance of trade: Price and wage inflation relatively high, but will Higher oil prices and increased oil production will boost ex- decline next year port revenues from petroleum activities, while reduced invest- Compared with our last quarterly report, the projection for ment in the petroleum sector as well as in other production wage growth has been revised downwards this year and next. sectors will contribute to low import growth. The interest and This may largely be ascribed to this year's wage settlements, transfers balance will probably also make a positive contri- where pay increases were slightly lower than assumed bution to the current account both in 1999 and next year.
17
Eco omic e s Economic Survey 2/99
a io a accou s: i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . Seaso a y a us e A i e 199 ices Mi io k o e
97 1 97 97 3 97 9 1 9 9 3 9 99 1
i a co sum io e o ous a IS s 1 1 11 1 5 1 71 1 1 9 31 1 91 9 131 3 13195 13 97 13 173 ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e 1179 9 1 3 1 77 1 9 3 1 7 1 5 3 1 57 1 1 1 Goo s 9 5 133 73 7 1 7 973 71991 7 3 5 7 719 73 Se ices 97 1 5 5 5 5 1 5117 513 9 51753 51 1 5 1 5 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse o s 5 53 55 1 5 9 5 5 55 5 5 3 5 37 57 7 - i ec u c ases y o - esi e s -3 3 -3 7 -37 -3 35 -3775 -3 7 - 3 -3917 - 9 i a co sum io e o IS s 1 99 1 1 17 13 171 i a co sum e o ge e a go e me 5 5 53 53 5 797 5 55 5 555 555 3 i a co sum e o ce a go e me 1 7 1 1 7 13 1 3 1 7 1 19 5 1 5 Ce a go e me ci i ia 153 1517 153 9 155 7 15991 15 9 1 1 1 1 3 7 Ce a go e me e e ce 57 5 7 5 97 5797 5 73 579 5 5 7 5 3 i a co sum e o oca go e me 3177 319 5 3 53 3 53 3 933 33139 33 33 1 3335
G oss i e ca i a o ma io 7 3115 11 3 35 3 53 91 7 9 7 9 3 3 9 e o eum ac i i ies 13 31 1 1 7 15 7 15 1 99 19 7 1 1733 Ocea a s o 3 39 77 197 3 1 5 3 1 3 Mai a o way 1 319 13 7 1 51 59 77 9 Mai a o way e o ge e a go e me 3 3 7 3 17 35 1 37 7 3 7 3 37 3 35 3 17 3 7 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 37 9 9 5 5 5 571 9 9 5753 51 o uc io o o e goo s 73 391 13 37 335 393 11 3 9 3751 we i gs 7131 7 7 7 1 7 71 7 77 751 7 7 7 5 O e se ices 1 7 1 3 3 193 73 1 3 1 7 9 31 197 Ge e a go e me 1 53 97 3 717 39 9 35 1 91 915 9 1 1 C a ges i s ocks a s a isc e a cies 11 7 57 7 3 19 57 7 7 75 G oss ca i a o ma io 3 55 9 31 7 715 7 73 7 5 77 5 71
i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices 179 51 7 31 5333 55 9 5977 175 15 75 i a ema om mai a o way 13 1 3 3 33 915 99 31 17 33191 3 1 3 i a ema om ge e a go e me 3 9 5 9 177 99 31 5117 1 5 7 5
o a e o s 1 531 11 7 11 13 11 5 3 11 7 1 9 51 1 1 9 1 9 1 a i io a goo s 3959 951 3 9 777 5 3599 3593 3 33 C u e oi a a u a gas 3 5 19 39 3 553 15 9 3 59 357 3 97 37713 S i s a a o ms 313 35 3 133 3519 33 1 5 3 11 Se ices 33 5 3 5 51 5 9 53 9 5 5 5 3
o a use o goo s a se ices 3 711 35717 3571 9 3 39 37 3 9 9 3 797 37355 3 997
o a im o s 7 1 9 533 91 1 9 139 1 79 979 9 977 1 33 9 a i io a goo s 575 53 59 53 3 59 5 175 59 9 99 71
C u e oi 37 39 53 315 37 3 5 57 9 S i s a oi a o ms 7 577 5 7 5 1 5 1 5 37 95 5 5 Se ices 5 7 5 5 59 39 7 13 775
G oss omes ic o uc 593 5 37 59 7 97 1 9 71 39 7 19 7 19 7311 Mai a o way (ma ke ices 131 15 1 3 1755 173 913 57 3 55 751
e o eum ac i i ies a ocea a s o 1 9 33 7 75 77 5 553 5 Mai a o way ( asic ices 1 5 73 1 1 1 971 191 3 19 1953 1 19 9 1 19 1 199119 Mai a o way e ge e a go e me 1 5 1 1 9 5 151 151995 15 77 153 3 15 71 15 31 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 7 9 95 9 9 9 5 3 1 3 3 997 3 3 o uc io o o e goo s 197 7 75 1 9 11 5 1 7 117 17 1 3 151 Se ice i us ies 97 9 9 1 3 1 1 7 1 31 1 175 1 33 1 131 Ge e a go e me 39 73 39795 11 595 73 117 1 7 1 9 Co ec io i ems 9 9 9117 9 9 7 959 3 7 391
8
Economic Survey 2/99 Eco omic e s
a io a accou s: i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . Seaso a y a us e . A i e 6 ices. e ce age o ume c a ge om e ious e io
97 1 97 97 3 97 9 1 9 9 3 9 99 1
i a co sum io e o ous a IS s 1 -0.0 1 1 - 1 1 - 7 ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e - 1 1 7 - 1 - 7 5 Goo s - 3 1 7 - 3 5 - 3 3 9 Se ices 3 1 - 1 3 3 9 1 1 1 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse o s 3 9 -1 7 3 -3 1 3 - i ec u c ases y o - esi e s 3 - 1 - 1 -1 -3 5 i a co sum io e o IS s 1 - 1 -1 - 1 - 5 i a co sum e o ge e a go e me 1 1 5 1 7 1 - 1 i a co sum e o ce a go e me 1 -1 7 1 5 5 - 7 Ce a go e me ci i ia 5 -1 9 1 3 - 5 1 Ce a go e me e e ce 3 9 -1 1 7 1 3 -1 - 7 i a co sum e o oca go e me 7 7 1 5 1 - 7
G oss i e ca i a o ma io 3 3 9 -3 3 9 9 - 7 3 7 -1 e o eum ac i i ies -15 -13 9 -3 1 9 3 1 3 - 1 9
Ocea a s o 39 5 - 1 - 119 - 5 77 -7 3 - 9 Mai a o way 7 - - - 1 -1 9 1 9 - 9 Mai a o way e o ge e a go e me 3 9 3 5 1 -1 -5 5 7 -1 1 - Ma u ac u i g a mi i g - 11 1 - 1 -13 1 7 17 -9 9 -17 o uc io o o e goo s 5 3 -3 5 5 - 9 15 -9 1 9 -7 9 1 5 we i gs 3 1 - 1 7 - 1 - 9 - O e se ices 5 -1 9 5 7 1 - 7 - 5 5 1 3 - 7 Ge e a go e me 19 1 -3 5 -1 1 5 11 -11 1 7 C a ges i s ocks a s a isc e a cies 73 -39 9 13 7 17 -7 5 37 9 - - 1 13 G oss ca i a o ma io 5 1 1 9 5 1 1 9 7 1 1 -
1.5 i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices 1 9 1 7 9 -1 3 i a ema om mai a o way 1 5 1 1 1 3 - i a ema om ge e a go e me 3 3 5 - -1 1 5 1 1 7 -1 1 1 3
o a e o s -1 5 -1 7 3 - -3 1 3 - a i io a goo s - 3 5 -1 3 - - 1 C u e oi a a u a gas - 3 9 - 5 3 5 -7 5 -7 5 -1 S i s a a o ms 9 -1 -1 7 -7 5 -5 - 5 11 3 3 3 Se ices 9 3 -1 1 - -1 -
o a use o goo s a se ices 9 - 1 9 1 7 - - 1 5 -1
o a im o s - 5 -1 3 7 1 - - 5 7 - 3 a i io a goo s - 5 - 3 5 7 3 5 1 1 - 1 5 3 C u e oi -1 9 - 1 1 3 - 5 - 7 -1 9 -9 S i s a oi a o ms -7 -7 -13 - 5 5 3 - 3 1 7 -73 Se ices 1 13 1 -1 1 3 1 1 1 - 5 1 3 1
1.1G oss omes ic o uc 1 5 1 5 - 1 7 - 5 1 1 Mai a o way (ma ke ices 1 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 - 5 1 3
e o eum ac i i ies a ocea a s o 3 7 - - 7 - 5 - 1 Mai a o way ( asic ices 1 1 7 1 1 1 5 1 3 - 1 5 Mai a o way e ge e a go e me 1 3 1 1 1 5 1 - 1 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g - 1 1 7 1 - 1 9 -1 1 1 o uc io o o e goo s 1 5 3 1 -1 1 - 5 5 7 -1 Se ice i us ies 1 7 - 1 9 1 1 1 1 -1 3 1 5 7 Ge e a go e me 5 - 1 7 - 1 7 - 9 Co ec io i ems 3 5 7 -3 5 3 -7 3 - 3
19
Eco omic e s Economic Survey 2/99
a io a accou s: i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . _ Seaso a y a us e . ice i ices. 6 = 00
97 1 97 97 3 97 9 1 9 9 3 9 99 1
101.7 i a co sum io e o ouse o s a IS s i 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 9 1 5 1 1 1 i a co sum io e o ge e a go e me 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 5 1 3 1 1 9 3 11 11 5 G oss i e ca i a o ma io 1 1 1 1 7 1 3 1 3 3 1 5 1 1 7 1 1 5 Mai a o way 99 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 3 1 1 5 1 1 1 5 7 i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices 1 1 9 1 7 1 3 1 1 1 5 7 1 1 7 1 7 i a ema om mai a o way 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 3 1 3 1 5 1 1 7 1 7 o a e o s 1 3 3 9 3 1 1 3 3 95 9 95 9 9 9 9 a i io a goo s 99 97 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 9 7 o a use o goo s a se ices 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 9 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 o a im o s 99 1 5 1 3 9 1 1 9 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 5 1 a i io a goo s 97 5 9 1 1 1 99 1 7 1 1 1 9 9 97 5 G oss omes ic o uc 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 9 1 1 Mai a o way (ma ke ices 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 5 1 7 9 1 9 3 1
a io a accou s: i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . Seaso a y a us e . ice i ices. e ce age c a ge om e ious e io
97 1 97 97 3 97 9 1 9 9 3 9 99 1
i a co sum io e o ouse o s a IS s 1 0.6 3 1 1 5 5 i a co sum io e o ge e a go e me - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 3 G oss i e ca i a o ma io - 1 1 7 - 1 9 1 3 - - 1 Mai a o way -1 1 1 5 1 1 3 1 7 - i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices - 1 - 1 1 1 1 i a ema om mai a o way 0.1 7 1 5 1 7 1 o a e o s -1 - -1 -7 - 7 - - - a i io a goo s - 3 -1 9 5 -1 3 - 7 - 7 - o a use o goo s a se ices - 9 - 1 1 9 - -1 7 5 - - 1 o a im o s -1 7 1 5 3 3 -1 1 3 - 1 -1 - 7 a i io a goo s - 7 7 3 1 -1 9 1 - 3 - -1 G oss omes ic o uc - - 1 - 1 7 - Mai a o way (ma ke ices -1 1 5 1 3 1 1 1 -
ec ica comme s o e qua e y igu es
oo o es i 1S s o - o i i is i u io s se i g ouse o s e i e as o a i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io i mai a o way 3 e i e as ge e a go e me i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io 4 G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices
Q rt rl l l t n : e ca cu a io s a e ma e o a ess e ai e e e a e ca cu a io s o e a ua a io a accou s a a e ase o mo e sim i ie oce u es
r nd h n l n n f th d t : I e qua e y a io a accou s (Q A a o ume measu es a e cu e y ca cu a e a co s a 199 ices usi g weig s om a yea e c oice o ase yea i ue ces e co s a - ice igu es a us e a ua a es o c a ge i o ume (g ow a es o e sake o com a iso a a es ese g ow a es wi 199 as e ase yea (commo yea o eca cu a io e eca cu a io o ices is ca ie ou a e sec o a e e o e qua e y a io a accou s Seaso a a us me egi i g wi is u ica io seaso a a us me o Q A igu es is ase o 1 A IMA I em eme i g e me o e sum o a seaso a y a us e se ies o e e ou qua e s o a yea is o co s ai e o equa e co es o i g (u a us e a ua igu e
20 Economic Survey 2/99 Regional value added and household income
a ue a e a ouse o i come: a egio a e s ec i e
M r Edv rd n
h rt l t x n th r n l d tr b t n f r v l dd d (G A , nd th r n l d tr b t n f h h ld n (pr r nd d p bl n . A n t n h th r v l dd d nd h h ld n f ll th p tt rn h n t t th r n l d tr b t n. W ll th t th r n l d tr b t n f v l dd d d p nd , n th r f t r , p n th r n p t n f nd tr nd r r pr d t v t . h p r d th th r n l d tr b t n f th n f h h ld . W f nd th t r n th r l t v l h h h r f t t l G A l h v r l t v l h h h r f t t l h h ld n .
I o uc io Value added --, Output - Intermediate consumption The basis for this article is an earlier published document Compensation of employees on the Norwegian regional accounts for 1993, Edvardsen + Consumption of fixed capital (1998), and an article published in Statistics Norway's' + Operating surplus Weekly Bulletin, Sorensen (1998), on the regional distribu- + net other taxes on production tion of household income. The calculations of income are based on the figures of the national accounts for 1993- Gross domestic product (GDP) emerges when the amount 1996. With the help of tax return accounts, data from the of total net product taxes (VAT, taxes on tobacco, etc.) is National Insurance Administration, and population figures, added to the value added of the different industries. A the income of households was regionalised. This regional correction item is the FISIM, i.e. Financial Intermediate distribution will be compared with the regional distribution Services Indirectly Measured. FISIM is the interest margin of value added, as given in the regional accounts. The re- of the financial institutions. It is not allocated to various gional level is Statistics Norway's' REGIN 2. For certain uses, but is recorded as intermediate consumption, a con- purposes this classification is accepted when reporting vention that might be changed if international agreement is figures to Eurostat, and it is comparable to the NUTS2 reached. classification. Gross domestic product is measured at purchasers' prices, The national accounts figures are not yet regionalised for and similarly for regional gross domestic product (RGDP). any of the years after 1993. The analyses will therefore be In the Norwegian regional accounts of 1993, net taxes on limited to this particular accounting year. Even though the production and FISIM are allocated to the regions accord- figures are not up-to-date, they may still be of interest, ing to the region's total GVA. This implies that the re- since they may provide important information on the gional distribution of value added and of gross domestic allocation of certain measures of welfare. product is the same.
a ue a e EGI 2: In the national accounts the value added of an industry egio 1 - Os o a Ake s us Os o a Ake s us emerges as the difference between output and intermediate egio - Sou Eas e o way Øs o uske u consumption. Value added is measured at basic prices, es o a e ema k which is the amount the producer is left with after taxes are egio 3- e ema k a O a e ema k a O a withdrawn and subsidies received. In other words: Value egio - Ag e a oga a Aus -Ag e es -Ag e added may be viewed as the total result of the production a oga a process. egio 5- Wes e o way o a a Mo e og oms a a Sog og o a e egio - ø e ag Sø - ø e ag a o - ø e ag
M r Edv rd n, E ecu i e O ice i isio o a io a egio 7 o e o way o a oms a Accou s E-mai me ss o i ma k
2
Regional value added and household income Economic Survey 2/99
a e . Mai esu s om e o wegia egio a Accou s . O i a y egio s
I a i a s Em oyme egio a egio G oss omes ic o uc ( G
(1 e so s (mi k
e w o e cou y 311 991 5 7 5 7
Os o a Ake s us 9 3 5 5 1 Sou Eas e o way 3 1 9 33 11 7 e ma k a O a 37 3 3 15 7 Ag e a oga a 595 3 71 1 9 5 es a e 7 5 19 35 115 7 3 ø e ag 3 1 5 17 5 1 o - o ge 5 9 1 7 1 9
G e i a i a G e em oyee
Nkr e I e e I e
i a i a e w o e em oyee e w o e cou y =1 cou y=1
e w o e cou y 1 7 5 1 35 5 1
Os o a Ake s us 5 953 15 15 11
Sou Eas e o way 1 5 13 1 9 99 e ma k a O a 1 7 1 7 3 1 Ag e a oga a 17 979 1 3 1 755 1
es a e 151 3 1 1 9 9 ø e ag 136 558 1 95 1
o - o ge 13 1 79 113 3
igu e .G A e i a i a a e em oyee. e com osi io o i us ies o wegia egio s . I e , e w o e cou y, e c u i g e e a egio = 00 An employee's contribution to GVA depends, among other factors, on the degree of capital intensity in the industry,
1 and the employee's own productivity. The contribution to 1 ▪ G A e i a i a GVA will be higher, the more capital the industry applies ▪ G A e em oyee 1 in its production. The extreme example is oil-related indus- 1 tries l . In general, regions with a high concentration of capital-intensive industries have a high GVA per employee. On average, a person employed in agricultural industries contributes Nkr 199 1000 to GVA, whereas a person employed in manufacturing industries contributes
Oslo and Agder and South Wes e e ma k ø e ag o e Nkr 346 600 to total GVA. A person employed in services Akershus Rogaland Eas e o way a o way
o way O a contributes Nkr 319 900, on average. Such differences in structure can explain much of the variations in the regions' GVA per employee, since the industry mix differs between The figures for RGDP are shown in table 1. the regions.
In the regional accounts, employment is registered by place Still, if we take such structural differences into account, of work. Commuting will therefore result in a difference some differences in the regions' GVA per employee between GVA per capita and GVA per employee. This is remain. Such differences may roughly be viewed as why the index of GVA per employee is lower than the regional differences in employees' productivity. Figure 2 index per capita for Oslo and Akershus. For all the other shows indices per employee in the main economic activi- regions the opposite is true. In spite of this, the capital ties. The whole country is set 100. region of Oslo and Akershus is 16 per cent above the country average in the index of GVA per employee.
1 The main activities connected to oil and gas extraction on the Norwegian Continental Shelf are allocated to a constructed extra-region. The extra-region also cover the activity on Svalbard, Jan Mayen, and other activity abroad.
22 Economic Survey 2/99 egio a a ue a e a ouse o i come
igu e 2.G A e em oyee i mai ac i i ies. igu e . e com osi io o G A. o wegia egio s o wegia egio s . I e , e w o e cou y = 00 • Ce a go e me o oca go e me E2 Ma ke o uc io 1 1 • ima y i us ies 9 — 3 Ma u ac u i g i us ies 1 — ea Se ices 1 7 — — 5 — — 3 — — 1 — o Os o a Sou e ma k Ag e a Wes e ø e ag o e e Os o a Sou e ma k Ag e Wes e ø e ag o e Ake s us Eas e a Rogaland o way o way w o e Ake s us Eas e a a o way o way o way O a cou y o way O a oga a
Altogether we see that it is only Trøndelag and Northern bute 30 per cent of total GVA in Northern Norway. For Norway that do not exceed the country average for at least Oslo and Akershus is the corresponding share 16 per cent, one of the main industries. as for Agder and Rogaland. This is in contrast to the fact that central government is highly centralised in the capital area, and in the oil districts of Agder and Rogaland. u ic o uc io o mos im o a ce i o e o way Not only the composition of industries varies from region ig es i come i Os o a Ake s us to region. Also the share of total production and GVA that Earlier calculations of household income revealed that are produced by the government varies. Each region's total Oslo and Akershus in the period 1993-1996 had a rela- GVA may be divided by category. We then distinguish tively large share of household disposable income corn- between production for own final use, market production pared with the share of total population. For 1993, which is and non-market production of non-profit institutions the year of primary interest here, Oslo/Akershus was the serving households, non-market production of local govern- only region above the country average for disposable in- ment, and non-market production of central government. come. Measured per inhabitant we find South-Eastern Norway, Agder and Rogaland and Western Norway just Water supply and public sewage and refuse disposal below the country average. The lowest levels for household services are considered market production. Production for disposable income were found for Trøndelag, Hedmark own final use is mainly the production of housing services, and Oppland and for Northern Norway. The variations in but also the value of own production such as hunting and disposable income are primarily due to the regional fishing for own use, etc., are included. variations in primary income. Earned income accounts for approximately 80-85 per cent of households' total income, The production of housing services for owner-occupiers is and measured per employee, earned income varies between imputed in the national accounts. The imputed services are the different industries. This implies that the primary in- estimated from market rents paid by tenants for com- come of households reflects one side of the regions' econ- parable dwellings. The non-market production of local and omic base. central government is valued by the product costs: the sum of employment costs, intermediate production, capital con- The primary income of households also covers property in- sumption and net taxes. The operating surplus is assumed come received minus property income payable by resident to be zero (non-profit). Figure 3 illustrates the importance households. For the year 1996, Oslo and Akershus and of the government sector for the regions' total GVA. As a Western Norway were the only regions with positive net simplification, "market production" refers to the sum of the property income. In the period 1993- 1996, interest rates categories market production and non-market production declined in Norway, and this has reduced interest costs of non-profit institutions serving households and produc- payable for households in all regions. For Oslo and Akers- tion for own final use. hus, the decline in interest rates had a larger effect in this region because households had relatively more debt than Measured this way, the central government contributes 6 households had in other regions. None of the regions had per cent to total GVA, excluding the extra-region. Local positive net property income for households in 1993. government has 14 per cent of total GVA; while the remaining 80 per cent is classified as "market production". The change in the method for calculating the operating surplus from housing services (see separate box) had some, The various regions deviate from this average, particularly albeit small impact on the figures. The mid-region of the northern region. Central and local government contri- Hedmark and Oppland and Trøndelag are still found on the
23 egio a a ue a e a ouse o i come Economic Survey 2/99
a e 2. e i come o ouse o s , e i a i a a e e so o e e age o . I e , e w o e cou y = 00
e i a i a
ima y i come is osa e i come o e y i come
e w o e cou y 1 1 1
Os o a Ake s us 1 3 11 1 7
Sou Eas e o way 9 9 9 e ma k a O a 9 9 Ag e a oga a 1 9 97
es a e 9 9 9
ø e ag 91 9 9
o - o ge 9 9 5
e e so o e e age o 17
ima y i come is osa e i come
e w o e cou y 1 1
Os o a Ake s us 1 1 11
Sou Eas e o way 91 9
e ma k a O a 9
Ag e a oga a 1 5 1
es a e 99 9
ø e ag 9 95
o - o ge 9 9
igu e 4.I come o ouse o s. o wegia egio s The primary income of households may illustrate house- . k e i a i a holds' own ability to produce income, while the regional k e allocation of disposable income gives the result after taxes i a i a • ima y I come are paid and transfers received. The regional distribution of 1 CI is osa e i come may, in other words, be viewed as a 1 disposable income 1 policy output. When comparing the indices in table 2, we see that the ranking between the different regions may vary some, with the exception of the regions of Oslo and Roga- land where we find the highest indices. Looking at the dis- tribution of household income per person over the age of 17, we find that these regions are the only ones above the Os o a Sou e ma k Ag e a Wes e ø e ag o e Ake s us Eas e a oga a o way o way country average. o way O a In general we find the gap between the highest and the lowest index score smallest for disposable income. The maximum gap between highest and lowest score is found bottom list of well-off regions, measured by income. for property income. In other words, property income is Whereas Trøndelag in the earlier calculations was found to more centralised than other types of household income. have the lowest disposable income by person, it is now Hedmark and Oppland. The highest figures are still found for the capital region of Oslo and Akershus. The oil-related- Co c usio s region of Agder and Rogaland comes next. Regions' contribution to total gross value added depends, among other factors, on the economic base of a region, and Table 2 shows indices for the household income with the the region's comparative advantages: The productivity of whole country set at 100. There are indices per person, and its employees, and the stock of capital. In general, indus- per person over the age of 17; regional differences in the tries that are capital-intensive in production contribute age structure are the main explanation for differences in more to the total value added of the country than industries these groups. Regions with relatively many young people, that require less capital in their production. Differences in under the age of 17 have a higher index for household in- the indices for value added per employee may roughly come per person over the age of 17, than the index per illustrate differences in the workers' productivity. By this person. measure industries in agriculture are most efficient in
24
Economic Survey 2/99 egio a a ue a e a ouse o i come
egio a accou s
egio a accou s a e a egio a s eci ica io o e a oca e acco i g o e egis e e cou y o e esse s co es o i g a io a accou s e i s egio a isa io o I is way e esi e ce i ci e as s a e a o e is e a io a accou s was o e accou i g yea 19 5 o owe e o em is o ess im o a ce o e egio a a i was ca ie ou i 0. Si ce e egio a accou s e e i w ic we a e o e a i g wi e 19 o i a y a e ee aw u o e accou i g yea s 1973 197 cou ies a i g u o 7 egio s 19 19 3 19 199 199 a 1993 I 1995 e mai e isio o e o wegia a io a accou s was i is e Co s uc io a e me o s ecomme e i ESA 1995 a o e e ue o e em o a y a u e o e co s uc io si es e egio a accou s o 2 a 1993 we e com i e o e egis a io i S a is ics o way s ce a egis e o es a is - asis o e e ise igu es me s may e i su icie o a oca e e o uc io e c acco i g o e esi e ce i ci e a wo-s e me o is e egio a accou s a e com i e wi e e o a a ie o uc io is i e i s s e a oca e i sys em o is i u io keys w ic a oca e e ows o e acco a ce wi e i o ma io i e ce a egis e o o a eco omy o e egio s As a asis o suc is i u io es a is me s G oss i e ca i a i es me s a e i e keys i us y- e a e s a is ics a e use as a as ossi e I same s e ca cu a e o a i us ies I s e wo we suc s a is ics we e o a ai a e ce ai sim i ica io s im u e a s ecia commo i y w ic e is i u es e o uc- we e ma e e g e use o i ica o s as c ose y e a e o io acco i g o w e e i ac ua y was use as gi e y e e esi e a ia e as ossi e o is i u e o uc io e c G C igu es o e egio s I e e a e o a a o i e me ia e co - sum io i is a oca e o o io a e y wi o uc io a s o e oca io o e o uc io may e co si e e a e e ge e a i ci e o oca io " e esi e ce i ci e" i icu o a s o i us ies o ai - a ic a ai way is a a o uc io a i e me ia e co sum io s ou a s o e G A is a oca e o e egio s wi e e e a oca e o e egio w e e e o uce is esi e I o a ic i ica o s a wage s a es We co si e is o e a i m as oca ki s o ac i i y u i s ( KAUs i i e e i acco a ce wi e ESA i ci es o ocea a s o egio s e a ue a e s ou e a oca e o e egio e ESA i ci es s a e a e G A s ou e a oca e o w e e e KAU is esi e e same i ci e is a ie o e egio s w e e e mai a ou is oca e W e suc a e a oca io o g oss i e ca i a o ma io (G C A oca- mai a ou is o ou wi i a y o e i a egio s io o e egio w e e e i es me akes ace e G A s ou e a oca e acco i g o wage s a es is a e as ee o owe i e o wegia egio a o mos i us ies e a ica io o e esi e ce i ci e accou s o 1993 As a esu e ca i a cou y Os o as a gi es a u am iguous egio a is i u io e e a e some a ge s a e o e o a o uc io i e me ia e o uc io e ce io s owe e w e e e ac ica im eme a io o a em oyme i ese i us ies e i ci e may e iscusse We wi e ow ie y iscuss ow e esi e ce i ci e is ake i o accou o some y o owe o ese e ce io s o mo e i o ma io o e o wegia I e mai e isio o e a io a accou s e y o- egio a accou s o 1993 see E a se (199 owe i us y was i i e i wo o uc io a is i u- io o e ec ici y o e egio a accou s o 199 a is i g 1993 e a oca io as o owe e same a e o uc- egio a isa io o e o uc io ac i i y is o o ious io o e ec ici y as ee a oca e o e egio s acco - w e i comes o is i g si ce e ac i i y akes ace o i g o e o uc io si es w i e e is i u io was e co i e a s e ou si e e o i a y cou ies A a oca e acco i g o wage s a es cou y- e e e ace o a i g e is may o e i e om e esi e oca io o e is i g esse We a e
Sou Eas e o way Agder and Rogaland have the The disposable income of households was highest for Oslo highest indices for value added per employee in manufac- and Akershus, and lowest for Hedmark and Oppland and turing, while Oslo and Akershus have the highest score in for Trøndelag. Still, the regional distribution of household services. income is quite homogeneous, varying between 112 and 95, with the whole country set at 100. The indices for gross Government production (local and central government) and value added per employee had variations from 116-84. In its contribution to total GVA are measured by the total other words: the regional distribution of household dis- costs. Its importance varies between the regions: In posable income varies much less than the regional distribu- Northern Norway government production accounts for tion of GVA per employee. approximately 30 per cent of the total GVA of the region. For Oslo and Akershus the corresponding share is 16 per The regional distribution of net property income showed a cent. more centralised tendency and a larger gap for the index per inhabitant: 127-85, with the country average set at 100.
2 Regional value added and household income Economic Survey 2/99
ouse o accou s, a o e iew o e ca cu a io s
e igu es i is a ic e a e a esu o a i o o ec o e i c u es g ou s o i i i ua s suc as e so s i i g e ma- egio a isa io o e ouse o i come esu s om e e y i i s i u io s; o g- e m a ie s i os i a s o ec we e ea ie u is e i Week y u e i /9 om iso e s se i g o g se e ces a e e y e so s i i g S a is ics o way a i os a sa (199 A o - ow e ma e y i e i eme omes e o uc io o goo s me o was a ie w e egio a isi g e igu es o a se ices y u i co o a e e e ises is a so i c u e i e su e co sis e cy wi e a io a accou s a e u e ouse o sec o Suc e e ises a e ow e y ouse- accou s a e ee me ge wi a a o o u a io a o s a a e o asse s o au o omy o ecisio -maki g a a om e a io a I su a ce A mi is a io i o e o se a a e om ose o ei ow e o - o i i s i u io s is i u e e a io a accou s igu es amo g e egio s se i g ouse o s a e o i c u e i ou ca cu a io s a - oug ey a e co si e e a a o e ouse o sec o e is i u io o e o e a i g su us om ousi g se i- ces ( o uce o ow co sum io y ow e -occu ie s ima y i come i e s om ea ie accou s a e u accou s we e use " ima y i come is e com e sa io o em oyees o egio a ise is com o e o e i come I e ew ca - ecei e us mi e i come (o e o e a i g su us om cu a io s we a e use e egio a is i u io om e ei ow -accou o uc io o ousi g se ices o esi- egio a accou s i ec y o aci i a e com a iso e wee e ouse o s us o e y i come ecei e mi us o- e egio a is i u io o ouse o i come a e e y i come aya e y esi e ouse o s "(Eu os a egio a is i u io o o uc io i e me ia e o uc io 1995 e e m "mi e i come" is use w e e a a ue a e o e ime ei g e as egio a o e a i g su us a so i c u es a e eme o com e sa io accou s a e o e accou i g yea 1993 is me o as o e so e-ow e e o e a i g su us is e i e as i o e e o e o ee a ie o e is i u io o ouse o 1 i come o e yea s 199 - 199
ima y i come = O e a i g su us/Mi e i come e i s i u io a sec o ouse o s + Com e sa io o em oyees A ouse o is a i s i u io a u i I is we e i e i e + e o e y i come ESA (1995 a i Eu os a (199 e ESA s a es a a esi- e u i is ega e as co s i u i g a i s i u io a u i i i is osa e i come e oys au o omy i ecisio -maki g a a is as-o ca is osa e i come is e a a ci g i em o e seco a y com i e i equi e -a com e e se o accou s I a so a is i u io o i come e s a i g oi is e a a ci g s a es a a ouse o a ways e oys au o omy o i s i em o e ima y is i u io o i come ima y i come ecisio -maki g i es ec o co sum io a oug i may o e ima y i come a e a e socia e e i s i ki a o a ways kee a com e e se o accou s o e cu e a s e s a es o i come a o e cu e a es a e e uc e O e cu e a s e s suc as e o - ouse o s as co sume s a e e i e as a "sma g ou o i e i su a ce emiums a e a so e uc e e so s w o s a e e same i i g accommo a io w o oo some o a o ei i come a wea a w o co - is osa e i come = ima y i come + e a s e s sume ce ai y es o goo s a se ices co ec i e y mai y + e e e i s ousi g a oo e c i e ia o e e is e ce o ami y a - e a es a socia co i u io s emo io a ies may e a e " e ouse o sec o a so
e e e ces Eurostat (1996): European System of Accounts ESA 1995. Edvardsen, Hege Marie; Torgrim Lien; Jan Monnesland og Luxembourg 1996. Knut O. Sorensen (1997): Verdiskaping i fylkene. Regio- nale BNP-anslag som mål for fylkesvis verdiskaping. Rostasand, Jon Ivar (1998): Husholdningssektoren i nasjo- Samarbeidsrapport NIBR\SSB. Oslo 1997. (In Norwegian nalregnskapet, notat nr. 98/69, Statistisk sentralbyrå (In only) Norwegian only)
Edvardsen, Hege Marie and Monnesland, Jan (1997): S a is ics o way (1994): Standard Industrial Classifi- Regional distribution of Value Added. Paper at the Euro- cation (SN94), NOS C 182. pean Science Association 37 Th Congress, Rome August 1997. Statistics Norway (1996): National Accounts Statistics by County 1992. NOS C 3 3 Eurostat (1995): Regional accounts methods - Gross value added and gross fixed capital formation by activity. Statis- Statistics Norway (1997): National Accounts 1978-1996. tical document theme 1 (General statistics) Series E: Production, Uses and Employment. NOS C 432. Methods. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg 1995. System of National accounts (1993). World Bank, United Nations, OECD, IMF, Eurostat, 1993.
26 Economic Survey 2/99 Interregional labour force mobility in Norway
I e egio a a ou o ce mo i i y i o way G oss s eam a a ysis a su y si e a us me s
S bjørn St bøl
h rt l pr nt r n r lt fr rd r r h pr j t nv t t n th r l t n h p b t n r p h l b l t th n h ntr nd t t n th l b r r t. h n l h n d r bl h h r r t n fr n n n pl d p r d th pl d n n rl ll p p l t n r p nd r n . h r lt h th t th r h b n h h r tr n t n fr n pl nt t pl nt n n pl d r nt th n n th r n n r nt nt rp rt , p ll f r n pl d th h h r d t n. On th th r h nd, pl d r nt h d h h r tr n t n fr pl nt t n pl nt nd t f th l b r f r p r d th pl d n n r nt . h r lt l r v l th d ff r nt p t n f th nt n t r f ttr t v n f r r nt . A n r l n l n th t ntr l nt r n f ntl r ttr t v th n th r nt , b th f r n pl d nd pl d. h f nd b th n p r d f n xp n n nd n r n. h r t n pr h th ntr b t d t rt n d pl nt f b th pl d nd n pl d b t n th n t . E p ll n th b p r d th nd t d d r f b l n b t n r n l l b r r t .
I o uc io . ses have taken place at a more detailed regional level. Two This article presents Norwegian results from a Nordic re- periods of investigation have been chosen to cover the search project investigating regional migration patterns migration processes during cyclical upturns and downturns. within Nordic countries. The main purpose is to compare regional migration processes with emphasis on the rela- In the next section these analyses are broadly set into a hy- tionship between regional migration and changes in regio- pothetical and historical framework. This includes a brief nal labour markets. The first stage has been to make com- discussion of approaches that will also be important to ana- parative analyses of regional migration by using gross- lyse in the further development of the project. Section three stream-data, analysing the migration patterns broken down presents a short description of the various definitions and by the migrants' and the non-migrants' status in the labour the use of data and methods in this study. The fourth sec- market. The current stage is concentrated on supply-side tion presents some Norwegian results from the first stage adjustments in the regional labour markets. One main task of this main project, primarily based on the above-mention- has been to answer the question whether unemployed ed issues. migrants do achieve a better labour market position, parti- cularly compared with their non-migrant counterparts. Fur- ther, it has been important to measure the geographical Labour market imbalances mobility among employed persons, to investigate regional Long-distance migration of labour is often considered a imbalances through employment turnover, and to deter- 'necessary evil' in all the Nordic countries. Labour market mine to what extent employed migrants maintain their sta- policies have for several years encouraged unemployed to tus in the labour market. Investigations measuring the rela- search for jobs outside their local labour markets. Labour tive migration frequencies among unemployed compared market policies have also to some extent emphasised the with employed have also been carried out. The results are importance of intersectoral mobility, hence indirectly en- mainly presented at a general regional level, aggregating couraging geographical mobility. Higher geographical mo- all regional figures to represent national averages. The ana- bility of the labour force is expected to increase the general lysis includes, however, results showing how these proces- level of employment. On the other hand, regional policies have given incentives to private firms to locate in regions with a shortage of jobs, as well as establishing mechanisms S bjørn St b l, research fellow in the Division for public economics. E-mail: [email protected] for regional equalisation of living standards through the taxation systems. The concepts of "regional balance" and
1 This article is an excerpt from a research co-operation project between Finland, Norway and Sweden, represented by researchers from the University of Oulu, The Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, The Swedish Institute for Regional Research in Østersund, and Statistics Norway in Oslo (see e.g. Stamb01, ed. 1996, 1997, Johansson et al., 1997, Stambøl, 1998a,b).
27
Interregional labour force mobility in Norway Economic Survey 2/99
"consolidation of the settlement pattern" have been widely kets have their own supply and - demand situations, their accepted statements by politicians. Full interregional balan- own wage structures and their own surpluses or shortages ce in terms of migrant flows has, however, never been fully of labour. Mobility between segments is low, while it is achieved. Population growth in a few metropolitan regions high within individual segments. Segmentation of the labo- and a number of regional centres and a corresponding decli- ur force with respect to the supply side corresponds to its ne in peripheral regions have dominated for a long time. segmentation with respect to the demand side. The compo- sition of the labour market differs in the various regions. In theory, most long-distance migration is considered to be The result of these processes has been a further regional associated with regional differences in labour supply and segmentation of the labour force, a development which has demand. Through rational decisions, labour is supposed to hampered migration from rural and old industrial areas to move from regions with a limited number of jobs, high more expansive and dynamic ones (e.g. Massey, 1995, unemployment and an overrepresentation of declining indu- Johansson, 1996, Johansson et al., 1997). stries, to expansive regions with a surplus of jobs. There is no doubt that, in a historical perspective, the mobility pat- terns have largely reflected the course of structural change a a a e i i io s of the regional labour markets. However, it seems that ad- In this analysis Norway is basically divided into 19 re- justment through mobility due to different growth rates gions, which correspond to the 19 counties. The results pre- between regional labour markets was distorted by institutio- sented in this article are, however, aggregated to seven nal features, especially in the 1970s and 1980s. For instan- broader regions and to the national level. Earlier investiga- ce, unlike many other countries, the expansion of the ser- tions of geographical mobility have shown that the labour vice sector in Norway did not add to the increase of the market and education have a tendency to become increas- rate of migration to larger cities. The main reason was the ingly important factors in explaining migration at a higher relatively strong influence of the public sector in service geographical level (see e.g. Stambøl, 1991,1994, Stambøl production, especially in health care and social services, et al. 1998). An important aspect in our migration analysis but also the primary aim to improve accessibility to higher is the classification of individuals according to their labour education in all regions might have limited long-distance market status; e.g. employed, unemployed and outside the migration. The equalisation of living standards through the labour force. In earlier migration analyses this division was taxation system and the welfare state led to an equalisation used on cross-sectional data (see Stambøl 1995), but in this also between regions in terms of disposable income. Rela- analysis we also take into consideration the change in the ted to the expansion of public services, labour market par- labour market status of each individual by using gross-flow ticipation among women increased to among the highest in data. The aim is primarily to analyse the change of labour Europe. Hence, for many families, migration leads to a market status connected to the migrants and the migration necessary search for two jobs in the region of destination processes. In many cases, however, it has been important (e.g. Wheelock, 1994, Green, 1997). In addition, there has to compare changes in labour market statuses among mi- also been a tradition of strong labour unions demanding the grants and non-migrants. Necessary data for all individuals same wage for the same job in each region. In spite of earli- of working age are therefore established. The data, which er findings in Norway, showing positive relationships cover the whole population, are collected from register- between regional labour market change and gross and net based data sources at Statistics Norway. in-migration (e.g. Stamb951, 1991,1994 and Stambøl et al., 1998), it is likely that institutional features led to some The end of the 1980s and the first years of the 1990s repre- reduction of the importance of the geographical distribu- sent a clear cyclical downturn in the Norwegian economy, tion of jobs to migration. while the nation experienced a recovery during 1993 followed by significant economic growth in 1994 and In earlier times problems of accommodation were charac- 1995. The comparison of the migration analyses are based terised by structural change in the economy at the industry on changes during two two-year periods, where 1988-89 is or sector level. Some industries declined while others ex- chosen to represent a recession period while 1994-95 repre- panded, and this was seen as no great problem as it was a sents a period with growth in the national economy. natural result of structural change. This process was usual- ly associated with transfers of resources between different Migrants are defined as individuals living in different coun- companies, industries, and sectors. The problem was mere- ties in the first and second year of each period. Definitions ly to channel the newly unemployed to those industries and of changes of labour market statuses follow similar pat- sectors that needed workers. Today's matching problem is terns, where the Norwegian data show the labour market of a different kind, with the existence of both shortages and status of each individual in the first and second year of surpluses of labour within the same companies, industries, each period. A definition of socio-economic and socio-de- and commuting regions. The reason for this is that the labo- mographic groups includes the variables gender, age and ur market has become more and more segmented in terms education, and in some cases also the marital status. Indivi- of competence levels. A segmented labour market consists duals of working age are defined as persons 16-74 years. of a number of sub-markets that are more or less separated Education is divided into three categories: low, intermedia- from one another by various obstacles, resulting in a hetero- te and higher education. .aeneous and unsubstitutable labour force. These sub-mar-
28
Economic Survey 2/99 Interregional labour force mobility in Norway
igu . e so a g ou s y i e e s a us i e a ou ma ke
e a ou o ce
U em oye Ou si e e U em oye w o a e ee em oye a o e yea Em oye a ou o ce
U em oyme i su a ce co s i u io o u em oyme i su a ce co i u io
U em oye U em oye mo e U em oye U em oye mo e 1- mo s a mo s 1- mo s a mo s
u e i isio y socio-eco omic a socio- emog a ic g ou s i e i i ia yea o eac e io G nd r: Ma e ema e A : 1 - yea s 5- yea s a 5-7 yea s Ed t n: U s eci ie e uca io owe e uca io ( ima y sc oo i e me ia e e uca io (seco a y sc oo a ig e e uca io (u i e si y a ig sc oo (1 Oc o e i 19 7 a 1993 M r t l t t : Si g e ma ie o co a i a
e io s o i es iga io 1 9 -1 9 9 ecessio 1 99 -1 995 Cyc ica u u o wegia egio s 19 cou ies — u e agg ega e o 7 egio s
■
The labour market status groups include, in addition to the higher migration frequencies compared with unemployed three categories mentioned above, a fourth status group men. Higher migration propensity by increasing educatio- comprising both employed and unemployed. This is due to nal level has been observed, and migration frequencies the definition of employed and unemployed, where the among unemployed with higher education were almost data cover employed and unemployed during the whole twice as high compared with unemployed with inter- year, thus including individuals who were partly unemploy- mediate education and almost three times higher than ed and partly employed during the same year. One conse- among unemployed with lower education. Further, there quence is that the data capture a large share of the unem- was much higher geographical mobility among short-term ployed, because the number of unemployed during a year unemployed compared with long-term unemployed, among is higher than the stock of unemployed at a certain point of unemployed living alone compared with married unem- time. In parts of the analysis, unemployed are further divi- ployed or unemployed cohabitants and finally among ded by length of their unemployment and by their unem- unemployed not receiving any unemployment insurance ployment insurance contribution status. contribution compared with unemployed who received an insurance contribution. The geographical mobility among The variables used in the analysis are shown in figure 1. employed in these periods followed approximately the same patterns for gender and educational level.
Em i ica esu s The hypothesis entails the expectation of higher geographi- Migration propensity among unemployed and cal mobility among unemployed and employed during an employed economic upswing than during a recession. During periods with employment growth, there are more jobs to move to, There are reasons to expect differences in migration rates and the employed take a higher risk to change job. In this between unemployed and employed. Unemployed are not process the turnover in the labour market is expected to in- tied up by employment and might be more motivated and crease. The general optimism that spreads during economic flexible to search for a job outside their local labour mar- upswings and, correspondingly, pessimism during reces- ket. There can, however, be factors that prevent the unem- sions are expected to support the hypothesis of increased ployed from moving, such as different types of social arran- geographical mobility during a boom. A counter hypo- gements. On the other hand, there are also many types of thesis has, however, been presented, i.e. that during a boom reasons why employed move, as for example, better posi- there is also an increase of jobs in each individual's local tion (career migration), better wages or insecurity in the labour market, which might reduce the need to migrate in local labour market. order to obtain a job.
Analyses have been made showing migration rates among In Norway the migration propensity has been somewhat unemployed and employed. It has further been essential to higher during the recession 1988-89 compared with the study the differences in migration rates between different boom 1994-95. There are no clear reasons that explain the population groups. The results show a relatively high mobi- generally higher geographical mobility during the years of lity between regions among unemployed in both periods of economic recession at the end of the 1980s. Lower out- investigation. Total female unemployed showed somewhat migration of unemployed from the capital region in the
29 I e egio a a ou o ce mo i i y i o way Economic Survey 2/99
a e . Mig a io a es o u em oye i 88 8 higher compared with female émployed. Considering the ( ecessio a 4 ( oom com a e wi investigation periods, there were relatively small differen- mig a io a es o em oye . y ge e , age a e uca io . A cou ies. I e o em oye ces in the total unemployed/employed migration indexes. mig a s = 00 Breaking down the results by age group, there were relati- vely higher migration frequencies among young unemploy- Me Wome ed during the boom period, while unemployed in the inter- mediate age group showed relatively higher migration rates Age a e uca io 19 - 199 - 19 - 199 - 19 9 1995 19 9 1995 during the economic recession.
A age g ou s
U s eci ie e uca io 3 1 11 To what extent do unemployed migrants find em-
owe e uca io 379 3 3 5 5 5 ployment? I e me ia e e uca io 9 5 3 5
ig e e uca io 77 59 319 3 1 The hypothesis has been that unemployed searching for a
A e age 59 7 7 79 job outside their local labour market increase their possibili- ty of obtaining a job. This hypothesis is logically due to an 6 24 yea s increase in the number of jobs available. Considering the U s eci ie e uca io 9 33 1 9 7 migration process, the unemployed might either have owe e uca io 1 3 19 313
I e me ia e e uca io 1 1 159 13 1 received a job offer and then make the necessary move or
ig e e uca io 11 1 7 17 they might migrate to another region and then search for a
A e age 13 1 3 1 1 7 job. In the latter case the job possibility does not necessari- ly increase, but is dependent on the number of jobs avail- 2 44 yea s able in the region of origin and destination. In both cases, U s eci ie e uca io 31 1 1 9 1 1
owe e ucà io 3 1 3 3 375 however, unemployed show a will to migrate in order to
I e me ia e e uca io 73 79 77 7 obtain a job. In addition, there are several conditions con-
ig e e uca io 3 3 5 cerning the type of demand and supply of labour that might A e age 75 5 3 17 affect the job possibility, hence expecting the characteristic of the unemployed to be of immense importance. In this 4 4 yea s
U s eci ie e uca io 9 13 175 7 analysis we have, however, examined and compared the
owe e uca io 3 3 35 99 unemployed broken down by broader population groups
I e me ia e e uca io 3 9 3 3 55 (see the section on data and definitions). ig e e uca io 3 9
A e age 7 53 31 3 One of the main aims of this analysis has thus been to ex- amine what status the unemployed obtain in the labour mar- mid-1990s has, however, contributed substantially to the ket after moving between regions. An important objective general lower migration rates in 1994-95. Another factor is of geographically mobile unemployed is to obtain a job. To that the chosen recession period follows just after a strong what extent they have succeeded in achieving this goal boom, and the boom period 1994-95 follows shortly after a during periods of recession and economic upswing can be recession. The pessimism which often follows from reces- seen in table 2. sion and optimism which follows from boom periods might have had too short a time to take root in these periods. Still The figures show that approximately one fourth of the another factor is that the level of unemployment in Nor- unemployed migrants in Norway did obtain a status as em- way, although decreasing, was in fact higher during the ployed during the year after migration. The unemployed boom 1994-95 compared with the recession years at the migrants had slightly higher transition to employment end of the 1980s, while the level of employment in the during the boom in 1994-95 compared with the economic boom was just on its way to recovering to the corres- recession in the late 1980s, which was due to somewhat ponding 1988-89 level. higher transition to employment among unemployed men. Unemployed migrants with higher education reached the Geographical mobility has been remarkably higher among highest transition to employment, where both the male and unemployed compared with employed. Table 1 shows that female transition rates exceeded 40 per cent in both unemployed migrants had higher migration frequencies in periods. Breaking down the figures by age group, unem- all population groups, with the exception of men with high- ployed migrants in the age group 25-44 generally showed er education in the youngest age group during the mid- the highest transition to employment. As in the other Nor- 1990s period. Among unemployed men the average migra- dic countries, the transition rate to employment increased tion frequency is approximately two and a half times high- by the educational level of the unemployed. If we include er compared with employed men, while the migration pro- the status group employed/unemployed, the total employ- pensity among female unemployed was almost three times ment transition rate among unemployed migrants increased higher than among employed women. Most pronounced to approximately 40 per cent. were the relatively higher migration frequencies among in- dividuals with lower education, where the migration rates Further investigations showed higher transition to employ- among female unemployed were more than five times ment among short-term unemployed migrants compared
0
Economic Survey 2/99 Interregional labour force mobility in Norway
a e 2. U em oye mig a s i 88 ( ecessio a 4 ( oom acco i g o ei s a us i e a ou ma ke 8 a es ec i e y. y ge e a age o ge e a e uca io . A cou ies. e ce
Ge e ecame ecame em oye / S i Ou o e
employed u em oye u em oye a ou o ce Age g ou s a e uca io a e e 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95
Me : 22.5A age- a e uca io a g ou s 3 15 1 1 3 1 1 3 1
1 - yea s 3 7 15 1 39 1 7 1 1 1 1 5- yea s 9 1 1 9 39 19 1 5 5-7 yea s 1 1 1 1 3 1 53 1 19
U s eci ie e uca io 15 9 11 11 5 13 5 5 3 1 7 owe e uca io 1 1 9 1 17 5 51 1 9 1 1 I e me ia e e uca io 5 5 5 17 1 1 1 3 1 15 3 ig e e uca io 1 7 7 1 3 1 31 5 9 1 1 15
Wome : A age- a e uca io a g ou s 5 5 13 7 1 3 35 9 37 3 9 1 7
1 - yea s 5 3 1 1 9 3 7 35 9 9 3 5- yea s 7 1 13 1 3 37 3 5-7 yea s 5 9 1 7 51 51 1 1 1 9
U s eci ie e uca io 17 9 13 9 9 7 9 7 35 37 owe e uca io 1 1 3 1 3 1 5 5 1 7 5 I e me ia e e uca io 5 3 15 15 5 3 5 37 1 9 1 5 ig e e uca io 1 1 1 7 1 5 1 1 17
with long-term unemployed migrants, among unemployed show over- and under-representation of unemployed mig- migrants living alone compared with married unemployed rants in each status group. All indexes above 100 entail or unemployed cohabitants, and finally among unemployed over-representation of unemployed migrants, while indexes migrants not receiving any unemployment insurance contri- below 100 indicate under-representation of unemployed bution compared with unemployed migrants who received migrants. an insurance contribution. The table shows that in general there has been higher tran- Unemployed migrants who remained unemployed, also in sition to employment among unemployed who migrated. the region of destination, represented more than 40 per cent During the years of economic recession at the end of the of total male unemployed migrants, and a little less of the 1980s there was 52 per cent higher transition to employ- female unemployed migrants. On the other hand, female ment among unemployed men who migrated compared unemployed had a somewhat stronger tendency than unem- with their non-migrant counterparts, while female unem- ployed men to withdraw from the labour force after migra- ployed migrants showed 42 per cent higher transition to tion. Not surprisingly, unemployed with lower or unspeci- employment. These figures decreased to 33 per cent for fied education (the latter include many immigrants) and unemployed men in the period of economic expansion in unemployed in the oldest age group showed the highest the mid-1990s, while the situation for female unemployed tendency to remain unemployed or to withdraw from the migrants remained almost unchanged. The relatively lower labour force after migration. transition to employment through migration for unem- ployed men in the latter period was due to disadvantageous results achieved by unemployed migrants with lower, inter- Is it profitable for unemployed to migrate? mediate and unspecified education. The most beneficial Does geographical mobility help the unemployed to get a effects from migration were observed among unemployed job? To examine this further, we have analysed the transi- with higher education, where unemployed men nearly tion to employment among unemployed migrants compa- doubled their likelihood of obtaining a job through migra- red with their unemployed non-migrant counterparts. We tion during the boom period in the mid-1990s. have here assumed that migrants and non-migrants are mainly comparable within broader population groups. The The transition from unemployment to the status group em- results of this analysis can be seen from table 3. The table ployed/unemployed also represents a certain improvement is in index form and shows the proportion of unemployed in the labour market status of the unemployed, obtaining a migrants in each status group after migration compared job at least in some periods of the year. As table 3 shows, with corresponding calculations for the unemployed who most of the indexes are above 100, indicating a higher tran- have not moved. The distribution of unemployed non- sition rate for unemployed migrants compared with unem- migrants in each status group is set at 100, so the indexes ployed non-migrants.
31
I e egio a a ou o ce mo i i y i o way Economic Survey 2/99
a e . e e a io s i e wee u em oye mig a s a u em oye o mig a s i 88 ( ecessio a 4 ( oom acco i g o ei s a us i e a ou ma ke 8 a es ec i e y. y ge e a age o ge e a e uca io . A cou ies. I e : U em oye o mig a s = 00
Ge e ecame o em oye / S i Ou o e
em oye u em oye u em oye a ou o ce Age g ou s a e uca io a e e 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95
Me :
A age- a e uca io a g ou s 15 133 1 3 1 3 9 93 7
1 - yea s 15 11 1 1 9 9 1 7 71
5- yea s 13 133 7 9 9 9 1 7 91
5-7 yea s 1 1 5 155 9 3 9 7 111
U s eci ie e uca io 1 1 95 11 1 1 1 97 99 owe e uca io 1 5 9 1 5 11 1 1 1 1 7 9 I e me ia e e uca io 1 117 1 5 1 9 9 ig e e uca io 17 195 1 9 7 5
Wome : A age- a e uca io a g ou s 1 1 3 11 1 7 5 5 9
1 - yea s 137 131 1 1 1 91 91 3 5- yea s 139 1 1 1 1 5 95 93 5-7 yea s 15 1 93 1 9 9 1
U s eci ie e uca io 1 1 3 119 1 9 9 93 99 owe e uca io 119 1 3 9 93 99 1 3 9 95 I e me ia e e uca io 135 13 117 1 9 5 7 7 9 ig e e uca io 1 5 1 1 11 3 9 73
Logically, most indexes in the status groups "still unem- obtain a job immediately after migration. The other decom- ployed" and "out of the labour fotce" are mostly below posed figures show that the capital region also received a 100, indicating that unemployed non-migrants are clearly surplus of more permanent unemployed through the migra- over-represented among unemployed who have not tion process, as well as unemployed who withdrew from succeeded in finding a job. the labour force.
In this period it was only South Eastern Norway, besides Net effects of migration among unemployed Oslo/Akershus, that experienced net in-migration of unem- In this section gross-stream analyses of migration among ployed. As the table shows, the net in-migration contribu- unemployed are combined and presented as net results be- ted to a rise in the number of unemployed who were still tween an aggregation to seven regions. In table 4 net migra- unemployed or withdrew from the labour force. tion of unemployed in 1994 is broken down by their labour market status achieved during 1995. The total net migra- Northern Norway and Western Norway were the regions tion shows a surplus or deficit of unemployed migrants in with highest net out-migration of unemployed, but also each region from 1994 to 1995, while all decomposed figur- Hedmark/Oppland and Trøndelag showed considerable net es show net effects for each region of which labour market out-migration. Except for Northern Norway, the major part status the unemployed migrants achieved during 1995. of the net out-migration comprised unemployed migrants who obtained a job the year after migration. The capital region of Oslo/Akershus differed from other regions with a relatively high net in-migration of unem- ployed, which was a result of positive net in-migration To what extent do employed migrants maintain from all other regions. The total net effect was about three their status as employed? times higher than observed during the economic recession The results have shown that the migration rates of employ- at the end of the 1980s. Considering the unemployment ed have been remarkably lower compared with unemploy- situation in the capital region, the migration effect became ed. On the other hand, the employed represent a clear majo- somewhat reduced, because the transition rate from unem- rity of the labour force, so although their migration rate is ployment to employment was nearly 50 per cent for the low their actual number of migrants is higher than the cor- total surplus of unemployed "net in-migrants". The total ef- responding number of unemployed migrants. The migra- fect of net in-migration of unemployed must, however, not tion of this group is thus important in order to illuminate be underestimated, because it is likely that not every unem- the changes both in employment and unemployment in the ployed who change their labour market status to employed regional labour markets.
2
Economic Survey 2/99 I e egio a a ou o ce mo i i y i o way
a e 4. e mig a io o u em oye e so s i 4 acco i g o e s a us o ai e i e a ou ma ke i . y egio o o igi a es i a io
egio o o igi
Sou
egio o Os o/ Eas e e ma k/ Ag e / Wes e o e- o e o a
es i a io Ake s us o way O a oga a o way ag o way
Os o Ake s us ecame em oye 1 3 1 1 11 7 3 Em oye /u em oye 1 1 1 51 19 S i u em oye - 7 9 55 15 Ou o e a ou o ce - 7 9 55 15 o a 1 9 19 1 7 51 95 1 5
Sou Eas e o way ecame em oye -1 3 -1 1 1 - Em oye /u em oye -1 -11 1 7 - -19 S i u em oye 5 -1 9 5 3 71 Ou o e a ou o ce 5 -1 9 5 3 71 o a -1 9 -3 37 31 7 39
e ma k O a ecame em oye -1 1 - -7 -1 - -177 Em oye /u em oye - 1 - 3 -3 S i u em oye -7 -5 -1 -1 7 -1 -3 Ou o e a ou o ce -7 -5 -1 -1 7 -1 -3 o a -19 - -5 -17 17 -3 - 73
Ag e oga a ecame em oye - 1 7 31 5 3 -19 Em oye /u em oye - 11 - 11 7 -1 S i u em oye - 9 1 1 3 -1 1 -7 Ou o e a ou o ce - 9 1 1 3 -1 1 -7 o a -1 3 5 1 3 - 9
Wes e o way ecame em oye -11 -1 -31 19 -15 -157 Em oye /u em oye - -1 -3 -11 -3 9 -57 S i u em oye -55 -9 1 -3 - 5 -7 Ou o e a ou o ce -55 -9 1 -3 - 5 -7 o a - 7 -37 17 - - -35
ø e ag ecame em oye -7 -1 1 - 5 -19 -35 -1 Em oye /u em oye - 1 -7 - -7 3 - S i u em oye - -5 -7 1 - Ou o e a ou o ce - -5 -7 1 - o a - 51 -31 -17 -1 -19 -3
o e o way ecame em oye - - -3 15 35 -33 Em oye /u em oye -51 1 -9 - - 3 S i u em oye - -3 1 -1 -5 - -131 Ou o e a ou o ce - -3 1 -1 -5 - -131 o a - 95 -7 3 -3 - 19 -35
1 e egio i c u es e cou ies o Øs o uske u es o a e ema k
There are several reasons why individuals who already order to obtain a better position within the same company. have a job choose to move. A common hypothesis is that Other reasons for migration can be to accompany a family employed choose to migrate to improve their position in member, where married partners or cohabitants already the labour market. The reasons might be expectations of a have a job, or the background for moving can be a mania- better salary or a better return on own know-how. The ae or divorce. Some reasons can be related to the regional change of both work and employer has been dominating in push factors; uncertainty in the local labour market can in- the geographical mobility of employed. Nowadays geograp- duce employed to move to regions where they obtain more hical mobility is increasingly connected to advancement in secure employment. In all those examples we might assu- different enterprises. When enterprises grow and become me that employed intend to be employed also after migra- more and more interregional and even international in their tion. locations, many career orientated employed will migrate in
I e egio a a ou o ce mo i i y i o way Economic Survey 2/99
a e . Em oye mig a s i 88 ( ecessio a 4 ( oom acco i g o ei s a us i e a ou ma ke i 8 a es ec i e y. y ge e a age o ge e a e uca io . A cou ies. e ce
Ge e S i o em oye / ecame Ou o e em oye u em oye u em oye a ou o ce Age g ou s a e uca io a e e 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95
Me : A age- a e uca io a g ou s 7 5 5 7 3 3 11 5
1 - yea s 73 7 7 5 5 1 1 13 1
5- yea s 5 5 3 9 3 7 5 9 7 1
5-7 yea s 77 5 1 3 5 1 17 3 1
U s eci ie e uca io 7 1 7 7 9 9 19 1
owe e uca io 7 7 1 9 3 7 5 7 13 7 1
I e me ia e e uca io 7 1 1 7 5 5 1 3 11 9 9
ig e e uca io 7 9 9 3 1 3 1 5 7 7
Wome :
A age- a e uca io a g ou s 71 5 75 5 3 5 3 5 3 5 17 1 5
1 - yea s 7 9 7 1 1
5- yea s 7 77 3 5 9 1 13
5-7 yea s 7 5 77 1 7 3 3 3 1 1
U s eci ie e uca io 5 5 5 5 9 3 19 3
owe e uca io 5 3 7 9 3 3 19 9
I e me ia e e uca io 9 5 71 3 7 3 9 17 7 1
ig e e uca io 9 5 1 1 7 13 5
a e 6. e e a io s i e wee em oye mig a s a em oye o mig a s i 88 ( ecessio a 4 ( oom acco i g o ei s a us i e a ou ma ke i 8 a es ec i e y. y ge e a age o ge e a e uca io . A cou ies. I e : Em oye o mig a s = 00
Ge e S i o em oye / ecame Ou o e em oye u em oye u em oye a ou o ce Age g ou s a e uca io a e e 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95 19 - 9 199 -95
Me : A age- a e uca io a g ou s 91 93 11 15 1 7 1 1 1
1 - yea s 1 99 7 1 1 1 1 93 5- yea s 9 93 1 137 5 7 7 5-7 yea s 9 9 93 9 373 197 11
U s eci ie e uca io 5 9 115 1 3 1 7 117 owe e uca io 3 1 19 3 3 5 157 157 I e me ia e e uca io 9 9 117 1 7 9 17 1 7 ig e e uca io 9 9 1 7 193 7 1 19 1 7
Wome : A age- a e uca io a g ou s 157 3 17
1 - yea s 95 9 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 7 1
5- yea s 1 9 171 95 379 17
5-7 yea s 1 3 57 35
U s eci ie e uca io 15 1 1 1 159 39 3 1 owe e uca io 17 19 7 7 199 331 555 3 I e me ia e e uca io 3 1 7 75 1 1 1 ig e e uca io 9 1 3 33 1 1 1
4
Economic Survey 2/99 Interregional labour force mobility in Norway
a e . e mig a io o em oye e so s i 4 acco i g o ei s a us i e a ou ma ke i . y egio o o igi a es i a io
egio o o igi
Sou egio o Os o/ Eas e e ma k/ Ag e / Wes e o e- o e o a es i a io Ake s us o way O a oga a o way ag o way
Os o Ake s us S i em oye - 3 7 3 1 357 1 5 Em oye /u em oye -31 1 1 -15 ecame u em oye -5 -1 -9 -1 -17 -1 -111 Ou o e a ou o ce - -3 - 1 -3 -7 -11 o a - 7 5 33 357 3 9 1
Sou Eas e o way S i em oye 15 - 5 3 5 1 Em oye /u em oye 31 -3 - -3 31 ecame u em oye 5 -1 - 9 7 91 Ou o e a ou o ce 1 - 3 1 31 9 o a 7 1 -53 1 15 59
e ma k O a S i em oye -3 -15 -1 - 15 -33 Em oye /u em oye - 3 - 3 - 9 -5 ecame u em oye 1 1 - 3 -5 19 Ou o e a ou o ce 3 -1 -3 -9 -1 7 o a - 5 -1 -11 -3 -15 -3
Ag e oga a S i em oye - 7 5 1 113 1 5 7 Em oye /u em oye -1 1 5 9 39 ecame u em oye 9 - -1 -7 7 -13 Ou o e a ou o ce 3 - -5 1 o a -33 53 11 9 1 179 3
Wes e o way S i em oye -3 1 -3 -113 3 -39 Em oye /u em oye -1 3 -3 -1 - -13 ecame u em oye 1 - 1 - 1 Ou o e a ou o ce -1 -3 9 - 3 o a -357 - 3 - 9 3 -35
ø e ag S i em oye - - 5 - - 33 -3 Em oye /u em oye - -5 - -3 ecame u em oye 17 -9 -3 7 9 5 Ou o e a ou o ce 3 -1 1 5 1 o a - - 1 15 - 1 -3 - 79
o e o way S i em oye -357 - -15 -1 5 -3 -33 - Em oye /u em oye - - -9 -9 - -3 ecame u em oye 1 - 7 5 -7 - -9 -3 Ou o e a ou o ce 7 -31 -7 -1 - - -97 o a -3 -15 - -179 - - - 31
e egio i c u es e cou ies o Øs o uske u es o a e ema k
Other reasons for withdrawing from employment and vo- An essential question to answer is thus which status em- luntarily changing labour market status for a shorter or a ployed maintain in the labour market after migration. To longer period may also exist. This might happen, for exam- what extent they have managed to keep their status as ple, when individuals already employed decide to continue employed during the boom and recession periods is seen in their education. There can be changes in the status when table 5. employed women bear children and when this is closely connected to migration. On the other hand, the change of No population groups succeeded in full in maintaining status can be involuntary when the employed do not find a their status as employed after migration. During the period job in another region after moving. It might also be possi- of economic recession at the end of the 1980s, only 79 per ble that employed choose to move, although there is unem- cent of employed men and 72 per cent of employed women ployment ahead or they withdraw from the labour force. kept their status as employed after migration. The cone-
35 Interregional labour force mobility in Norway Economic Survey 2/99 sponding figures during the boom period in the mid-1990s employed in 1994 is broken down by their labour market increased to 84 and 75 per cent for employed men and status maintained during 1995. The total net migration women respectively. Breaking down the results by educa- shows a surplus or deficit of employed migrants in each tion, higher educational level increases the chance of keep- region from 1994 to 1995, while all decomposed figures ing the status as employed after migration. Employed with show net effects for each region of the labour market status lower education showed a relatively strong tendency to the employed migrants maintained during 1995. change their status after moving. Employed migrants in the age group 25-44 years showed in general a higher tendency The capital region of Oslo/Akershus differed from other re- to keep their position as employed compared with younger gions with a relatively high net in-migration of employed, and older employed migrants. which was a result of positive net in-migration from all other regions except for South Eastern Norway. The total Considering the transition to the status group unemploy- net effect was, however, lower than observed during the ed/employed, there were small differences between em- economic recession at the end of the 1980s, when the capi- ployed males and females and between the periods. Em- tal region had a considerable net in-migration of employed ployed female migrants showed, however, in both periods in spite of a general employment decrease. The migration a stronger tendency than employed men to change their sta- effect on employment in the capital region in the mid- tus to unemployment or to withdraw from the labour force. 1990s was somewhat higher than the total net in-migration In this respect, the figures both for men and women were of employed suggested. This was due to positive net in- somewhat higher during the economic recession compared migration of employed who remained employed after with the boom period. The latter was especially due to high- migration and negative net in-migration of employed who er transition rates among employed with unspecified, lower became unemployed or withdrew from the labour force af- and intermediate education, while there were small differ- ter migration. South Eastern Norway and Agder/Rogaland ences in the transition rates between the periods among em- also experienced net in-migration of employed during this ployed migrants with higher education. period, especially among those who remained employed after migration. All other regions experienced net out- Another question which has been posed, is to what extent migration of employed, mostly comprising those who employed migrants maintain their status as employed com- stayed employed after moving. pared with employed who choose to stay in their own region. In table 6, the results show the relative transition in each group. The interpretation of the indexes is the same as Summary in table 3. The results show considerably higher migration frequenci- es among unemployed compared with employed in nearly The indexes show clearly that there has been a lower pro- all population groups and regions. The results show that portion of employed migrants who have managed to main- transition from unemployment to employment among tain their labour market status after moving compared with unemployed migrants has been higher than among their employed non-migrants. This was most pronounced among non-migrant counterparts, especially for unemployed with female employed migrants in both investigation periods. higher education. On the other hand, it has, at least partial- Broken down by age, it was generally employed migrants ly, been less profitable for employed to move than not to in the oldest age group who had highest transition from move. It might, however, be unwise to draw hasty conclu- employment compared with their non-migrant counter- sions, because there are both voluntary and involuntary parts. The greatest similarity between employed migrants changes from the status employed. Detailed figures from and employed non-migrants has in this respect been found the analyses show, however, that the transition to unem- among men in the youngest age group and among men ployment has been higher among employed migrants than with higher education. among employed non-migrants.
On the other hand, there has been a clear over-represen- The results also reveal the different positions of the regions tation of employed migrants among those who changed (i.e. counties) in terms of attractiveness for migrants- A ae- their status to unemployed or withdrew from the labour neral conclusion is that major regional centres and city re- force. This was most pronounced among female employed gions are significantly more attractive than other regions, migrants in the oldest age group, and among employed mi- both for unemployed and employed. This is found both in a grants with lower education. In Norway there were, how- period of economic boom and in a recession. ever, small differences between boom and recession with regard to employed migrants' and non-migrants' relative The migration process has thus contributed to a certain dis- ability to keep their status in the labour market. placement of both employed and unemployed between the regions. The highest contribution to imbalances was obser- ved among unemployed migrants who obtained a job, and Net effects of migration among employed among employed migrants who remained employed, thus Finally, gross-stream analyses of migration among em- either occupying vacancies in the regions of destination or ployed are combined and presented as net results between establishing vacancies in the regions of origin. Reduced an aggregation of seven regions. In table 7 net migration of pressure in the local labour market might be the consequen-
36 Economic Survey 2/99 Interregional labour force mobility in Norway ce in regions experiencing a surplus through the migration Stambøl, L.S. (1998b): Régional mobilitet i arbeidsstyrken - process, depending on to what extent the labour market is Bruttostromsanalyser og tilbudssidetilpasninger i de regio- able to absorb the increased labour force. Regions with net nale arbeidsmarkedene, Økonomiske analyser, 8/98, out-migration might experience higher pressure in the local Statistics Norway. labour market either through decreased unemployment or increased vacancies through geographical employment Stambøl L.S., N.M.Stolen and T.Åvitsland (1998): Regio- turnover. nal analyses of labour markets and demography - a model based Norwegian example. In Papers in Regional Science - The Journal of the RSAI, vol 77, no. 1, 37-62, 1998, Regio- e e e ces nal Science Association International, Illinois, USA. Green, A.E. (1997): A Question of compromise? Case Study Evidence on the Location and Mobility Strategies of Wheelock, J. (1994): Is Andy Capp dead? The household Dual Career Households. Regional Studies 31, 7. enterprise culture and household responses to economic change. In Garrahan, P. and P. Stewart (eds.): Urban Chan- Johansson, M. (1996): "Flexibility, Rigidity and Innovation ge and Renewal: The Paradox of Place. Avebury. Diffusion — the Case of Northern Sweden." In Johansson, M. and L.O. Persson (eds.): Extending the Reach. Essays on Differing Mobility Patterns in Sweden. Fritzes.
Johansson, M., L.O.Persson, E.Rissanen and L.S.Stambøl (1997): Interregional labour market mobility patterns in rapidly changing Nordic welfare states - a comparative ana- lysis. Paper presented at "the 37th European Congress of the Regional Science Association" in Rome, Italy, 25-29 August 1997.
Massey, D. (1995): Spatial Division of Labour. Social Structures and the Geography of Production. MacMillan.
Stambøl L.S. (1991): "Migration Projection in Norway: A Regional Demographic-Economic Model". In Stilwell, J. and P.Congdon (Eds.) Migration Models, Macro and Micro.. Belhaven Press. London and New York.
Stambøl L.S.(1994): Flytting, utdanning og arbeidsmarked 1986-1990. En interaktiv analyse av sammenhengen mellom endringer i flyttetilbOyelighet og arbeidsmarked. Reports 94/17, Statistics Norway.
Stambøl L.S. (1995): Flytting og arbeidsstyrken - Flyttetil- bOyelighet og flyttemOnster hos arbeidsledige og syssel- satte 1988-1993. Reports 95/28, Statistics Norway.
Stambøl L.S. (ed.) (1996): Flytting og arbeidsmarked i Nordiske land - Et forprosjekt. Temallord 1996:576, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen.
Small* L.S. (ed.), M.Johannsson, L.O.Persson and E. Rissanen (1997): Flytting og sysselsetting i nordiske land - BruttostrOmsanalyser og tilbudsidetilpasninger i de regio- nale arbeidsmarkedene. Temallord 1997:599, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen.
Stambøl, L.S. (1998a): Interregional labour market mobili- ty patterns in Norway - Gross-stream analysis and supply- side adjustments. Paper presented at the Nordic seminar "Structures and Prospects of Nordic Regional Economics", Savonlinna, Finland, 4-7 June, 1998.
37 Economic Survey 2/99
esea c u ica io s i E g is
ew i es
iscussio a e s strated that the goal of locational neutrality Taran Reim and Erling Holm0Y: is far from being fulfilled. Moreover, it is Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalisation Bente Halvorsen and Bodil M. Larsen: shown that differences in local priorities in Distorted Economies. A Dynamic Changes in the Pattern of Household only give a minor contribution to the ob- General Equilibrium Assessment for Electricity Demand over Time served differences in service levels. Norway DP no. 255, 1999. 29 pages. DP no. 251, 1999. 43 pages. A disaggregated intertemporal CGE model Empirical estimates of long run effects on Ingvild Svendsen: is used to simulate the welfare effects in residential electricity demand from Female labour participation rates in Norway of the recently implemented trade changes in the electricity price are usually Norway — trends and cycles reforms including the WTO agreement, estimated by cross-sectional variation in DP no. 253, 1999. 34 pages. the current stock of electric household the EEA treaty, the EFTA fishery agree- appliances across households at a certain Norwegian female labour participation ment and an anticipated EEA resolution on point in time. Here, we use a discrete-con- rates have increased steadily since the shipbuilding. These reforms affect the tinuous approach modeling the long run beginning of the seventies. This paper Norwegian economy through changes in effects by investments in new appliances. address several issues concerning female tariffs, Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs), We apply the annual Norwegian Survey of labour participation series for the period government procurement and subsidy Consumer Expenditure for the period 1975 1972-1997. The main purpose is to iden- policy as well as shifts in world prices and to 1994 to estimate the short and long run tify factors that explain the trend-like in- demand. Reduction of such import barriers own price elasticities in the two approach- crease during the last 25 years and a pos- that represent real costs for the country is es. We find the estimated long run elas- sible cyclical component that is due to identified as the most important source of ticity only slightly more price elastic than labour market conditions. The resulting welfare gains, through improved terms of the short run. We also find that the long relations for women in the age-groups 25- trade. Due to initial distortions caused by run elasticity does not differ significantly 39 years and 40-59 years include long-run taxes and imperfect competition, changes between the two approaches. The reason effects from wages, education and a signi- in the resource allocation have first order for both results is that, since there is no al- ficant cyclical component. The wage elas- effects on welfare. In particular, this ex- ternative source of energy for these ap- ticity is the same for the two groups by re- plains why the simulated reduction of em- pliances, there are no substitution effects. striction. For the older women (60-66 ployment has a significant negative impact years) we find a higher wage elasticity. on the total welfare gain. Children have a negative impact on the Audun LangOrgen and Rolf Aaberge: labour supply for female 25-39 years. We A Structural Approach for Measuring get no significant effects from the exten- Kjell Ame Brekke and Nils Chr. Stenseth: Fiscal Disparities sion of the parental leave and day-care A Bio-Economic Approach to the study DP no. 254, 1999. 28 pages. coverage. of Pastoralism, Famine and Cycles. Changes in ecological dynamics resul- Fiscal disparities arise from differences in ting from changes in socio-political costs and capacity to produce a standard Rolf Aaberge: factors package of public services. This paper Samling Errors and Cross-Country DP no. 250, 1999. 22 pages. proposes to use a structural modelling ap- Comparisons of Income Inequality Cycles in abundance of non-human proach as basis for measuring fiscal dis- DP no. 252, 1999. 12 pages. parities across municipalities. This ap- species are well-known to occur in autono- proach differs from the widely used re- The growing interest in cross-national mous, ecological systems. The study of duced-form approach, in the sense that comparisons of income inequality is pri- such cycles play a major role in ecological identification of minimum required costs marily a result of the establishment of the theory. It is less studied whether such or expenditure need is made by reference Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) database cycles may occur in systems in which to a structural model of the fiscal and and the wide range of studies on income human take part. The study of such sys- spending behavior of local governments. inequality based on LIS data. These tems requires an integration of economic The empirical analysis, which is based on studies suffer, however, from a major resource management theory and ecologi- data for Norwegian municipalities, relies weakness since sampling errors neither are cal theories. on various alternative measures of fiscal reported nor taken into account when na- capacity. One of these measures is defined tions are ranked according to estimates of In this paper we present a model of the by the local tax-bases, whilst another also the Gini coefficient or some alternative ecological dynamic of a pastoral society includes grants-in-aid from the central measure of inequality. This paper dis- with private animals grazing on public government. This facilitates identification cusses the impact of accounting for samp- land. It is demonstrated that the competi- of the equalizing effect from grants. By ling error when making comparisons of in- tive equilibrium may exhibit cycles. On comparing the effects of the current grant come inequality across nations. the other hand, the social optimum is system with the effects of a policy design- stable and consumption paths dominates ed to reduce fiscal disparities it is demon- even the peaks of that of the competitive equilibrium.
38 Economic Survey 2/99
e i s
Erling Holmøy and Torbjørn Hægeland: Effective Rates of Assistance for Norwe- gian Industries Reprints no. 139, 1999. 20 pages. Reprint from The Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 45, No. 1, 1999.
Anne Sofie Jore, Terje Skjerpen and Anders Rygh Swensen: Testing for Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parities on Norwegian Data Reprints no. 138, 1999. 25 pages. Reprint from LINK Proceedings 1991- 1992 (Studies in Applied International Economics), Vol. 1, 1998.
Solveig Glomsrød, Maria Dolores Monge and Haakon Vennemo: Structural Adjustment and Deforesta- tion in Nicaragua Reprints no. 136, 1999. 27 pages. Reprint from Environment and Develop- ment Economics, Vol. 4, 1998.
Rolf Aaberge and Ingrid Melby: The Sensitivity of Income Inequality to Choice of Equivalence Scales Reprints no. 135, 1999. 5 pages. Reprint from The Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 44, No. 4, 1998.
Annegrete Bruvoll and Karin Ibenholt: Green Throughput Taxation. Environ- mental and Economic Consequences Reprints no. 134, 1998. 15 pages. Reprint from Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 12, 1998.
Olav Bjerkholt: Interaction between Model Builders and Policy Makers in the Norwegian Tradi- tion Reprints no. 132, 1998. 23 pages. Reprint from Economic Modelling, Vol. 15, 1998.
39 Economic Survey 2/99
e ious y issue
S a is ica A a ysis Bjorn E. Naug: Runa Nesbakken: Modelling the Demand for Imports and Residential Energy Consumption for Natural Resources and the Environment Domestic Output. DP no. 243, 1999. Space Heating in Norwegian Households. 1998. SA 26, 1998. A Discrete-Continuous Choice Approach. Brita Bye: DP no. 231, 1998. Labour Market Rigidities and Environ- Socia a Eco omic mental Tax Reforms: Welfare Effects of Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino and Different Regimes. DP no. 242, 1998. Steinar Strom: S u ies Social Evaluation of Individual Welfare Hege Medin, Kanine Nyborg and Effects from Income Taxation. Empirical Dennis Fredriksen: Ian Bateman: Evidence Based on Italian Data for Projections of Population, Education, The Assumption of Equal Marginal Utility Married Couples. DP no. 230, 1998. Labour Supply and Public Pension Bene- of Income: How Much Does it Matter? fits. Analyses with the Dynamic Microsi- DP no. 241, 1998. John K. Dagsvik, Yu Zhu and mulation Model MOSART. Rolf Aaberge: SES 101, 1998. Richard B. Howarth and Kjell Arne A Framework for Empirical Modelling of Brekke: Consumer Demand with Latent Quality Knut Einar Rosendahl (ed.): Status Preferences and Economic Growth. Attributes. DP no. 229, 1998. Social Costs of Air Pollution and Fossil DP no. 240, 1998. Fuel Use — A Macroeconomic Approach. Kjell Ame Brekke and Erling Moxnes: SES 99, 1998. Kjell Ame Brekke, Richard B. Howarth Do Models Improve Fishery Manage- and Kanne Nyborg: ment? Empirical Evidence from a Are there Social Limits to Growth? Experimental Study. DP no. 228, 1998. e o s DP no. 239, 1998. Kjell Ame Brekke and Richard B. Annegrete Bruvoll: John K. Dagsvik, Ane S. Flaatten and Howarth: The Costs of Alternative Policies for Paper Helge Brunborg: The Social Contingency of Wants: Implica- and Plastic Waste. Reports 98/2, 1998. A Behavioral Two-Sex Marriage Model. tions for Growth and the Environment. DP no. 238, 1998. DP no. 227, 1998.
iscussio a e s Kjersti-Gro Lindquist: Ingvild Svendsen: The Response by the Norwegian Rational Expectations in Price Setting — Aluminium Industry to Changing Market Tests Based on Norwegian Export Prices. Sverre Grepperud, Henrik Wiig and Finn Structure. DP no. 237, 1998. DP no. 226, 1998. Roar Aune: Maize Trade Liberalization vs. Fertilizer Karin Ibenholt: Bjorn H. Vatne and John K. Dagsvik: Subsidies in Tanzania: A CGE Model Ana- Material Accounting in a Macroeconomic Estimation of Generalized Extreme Value lysis with Endogenous Soil Fertility. Framework Forecast of waste generated in Models by a Max-spectral Representation. DP no. 249, 1999. manufacturing industries in Norway. DP no. 225, 1998. DP no. 236, 1998. Morten Soberg: Erling Holm0y: Asymmetric Information and International Erik Mom, Kjersti-Gro Lindquist and A General Equilibrium Evaluation of Ag- Tradable Quota Treaties. An experimental Terje Skjeipen: gregate Welfare Effects from Improved evaluation. DP no. 248, 1999. Random Coefficients and Unbalanced Sectoral Efficiency. Empirical Evidence Panels: An Application on Data from for Norway. DP no. 224, 1998. Rune Johansen and John K. Dagsvik: Norwegian Chemical Plants. The Dynamics of a Behavioral Two-Sex DP no. 235, 1998. Leif Brubakk and John K. Dagsvik: Demographic Model. DP no. 247, 1999. Consumer Demand and Unobservable Pro- John K. Dagsvik and Leif Brubakk: duct Attributes. DP no. 223, 1998. John K. Dagsvik and Bjorn H. Vatne: Price Indexes for Elementary Aggregates Is the Distribution of Income Compatible Derived from Behavioral Assumptions. John K. Dagsvik: with a Stable Distribution? DP no. 234, 1998. Nonparametric Identification of Discrete DP no. 246, 1999. Choice Models. DP no. 222, 1998. Morten Soberg: Elin Berg, Snorre Kvemdokk and Knut Uncertainty and International Negotiations John K. Dagsvik: Einar Rosendahl: on Tradable Quota Treaties. Choice among Lotteries when Preferences Optimal Oil Exploration under Climate DP no. 233, 1998. are Stochastic. DP no. 221, 1998. Treaties. DP no. 245, 1999. Runa Nesbakken: Tor Jakob Klette and Jarle Moen: Joe Sexton and Anders Rygh Swensen: Price Sensitivity of Residential Energy From Growth Theory to Technology ECM-algorithms that converge at the rate Consumption in Norway. Policy - Coordination Problems in Theory of EM. DP no. 244, 1999. DP no. 232, 1998. and Practice. DP no. 219, 1998.
40 Economic Survey 2/99
Rolf Aaberge and Yu Zhu: Bente Halvorsen and Kjartan KjellAme Brekke and Jon Gjerde: The Pattern of Household Savings during Scelensminde: Optimal Environmental Preservation with a Hyperinflation. The Case of Urban Differences between Willingness-to-Pay Stochastic Environmental Benefits and China in the Late 1980s. DP no. 217, 1998. Estimates from Open-Ended and Discrete- Irreversible Extraction. Choice Contingent Valuation Methods. Documents 98/21.. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland: The Effects of Heteroscedasticity. Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Reprints no. 125, 1998. Kjell Arne Brekke (Coauthor on appendix: Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks. Jon Gjerde): DP no. 215, 1998. Asbjørn Aaheim and Kanne Nyborg: Hicksian Income from Stochastic On the Interpretation and Applicability of Resource Rents. Documents 98/20. Kanne Nyborg: a "Green National Product". Non-Verifiable Emissions, Voluntary Reprints no. 122, 1998. Solveig Glomsrød: Agreements, and Emission Taxes. Integrated Environmental-Economic DP no. 214, 1998. Rolf Golombek, Eystein Gjelsvik and Model of China. A paper for initial discus- Knut Einar Rosendahl: sion. Documents 98/17. Morten G. Soberg: Increased Competition on the Supply Side "EPA's New Emissions Trading Mecha- of the Western European Natural Gas John K. Dagsvik: nism: A Laboratory Evaluation" — A Com- Market. Reprints no. 121, 1998. Probabilistic Models for Qualitative ment. DP no. 213, 1998. Choice Behavior: An Introduction. Knut Einar Rosendahl: Documents 98/15. Rolf Aaberge: Health Effects and Social Costs of Particu- UMP Unbiased Tests for Multiparameter late Pollution - A Case Study for Oslo. Adne Cappelen, Robin Choudhury, Testing Problems with Restricted Alterna- Reprints no. 120, 1998. Per Richard Johansen and Knut A. tives. DP no. 212, 1998. Magnussen: Kanne Nyborg: The Selection Model of Saudi Arabia. Karl Ove Aarbu and Jeffrey K. MacKie- Some Norwegian Politicians' Use of Cost- Revised Version 1998. Mason: Benefit Analysis. Reprints no. 118, 1998. Documents 98/6. Why some Corporations Pay More Tax than Necessary. DP no. 211, 1998. Rolf Aaberge: Interpretations of changes in rankdepen- Torbjørn Eika and Knut A. Magnussen: dent measures of inequality. Did Norway Gain from the 1979-85 Oil Reprints no. 116, 1998. Price Shock? DP no. 210, 1998. Einar Bowitz: Jon Gjerde, Sverre Grepperud and Snorre Disability benefits, replacement ratios and Kvemdokk: the labour market. A time series approach. Optimal Climate Policy under the Possibi- Reprints no. 115, 1998. lity of a Catastrophe. DP no. 209, 1998. Knut H. Alfsen, Torstein A. Bye, Solveig Glomsrød and Henrik Wiig: e i s Theory and Applications. Soil degradation and economic development in Ghana. Reprints no. 112, 1998. Hilde Christiane Bjørrzland: The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on Elin Berg, Snorre Kverndokk and the Manufacturing Sector. Knut Einar Rosendahl: Reprints no. 131, 1999. Market Power, International CO2, Taxation and Oil Wealth. Annegrete Bruvoll: Reprints no. 110, 1998. Taxing Virgin materials. An Approach to Waste Problems. Reprints no. 129, 1998.
Annegrete Bruvoll and Karin Ibenholt: ocume s Future Waste Generation. Forecasts on the Basis of a Macroeconomic Model. Morten Soberg: Reprints no. 128, 1998. Experimental Economics and the US Tradable SO2 Permit Scheme: A Discus- Lasse S. Stambol, Nils Martin Stølen and sion of Parallelism. Documents 99/5. Turid Avitsland: Regional Analysis of Labor Markets and Erling Holmoy, Birger Strom and Demography. A Model Based Norwegian Turid Avitsland: Example. Reprints no. 127, 1998. Empirical characteristics of a static version of the MSG-6 model. Documents 99/1. Kjell Arne Brekke: Hicksian Income from Resource Extrac- tion in an Open Economy. Reprint no. 126, 1998.
41
Economic Survey 2/99
A e i
is o a es age
a io a accou s o o way
a e A i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc A cu e ices Mi io k o e 1 a e A i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc A co s a 199 - ices Mi io k o e a e A3 i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea 3 a e A i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc e ce age c a ge i ices om e same e io i e e ious yea a e A5 G oss omes ic o uc a a ue a e y i us y A cu e ices Mi io k o e 5 a e A G oss omes ic o uc a a ue a e y i us y e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea a e A7 ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e A cu e ices Mi io k o e 7 a e A ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea 7 a e A9 G oss i e ca i a o ma io y y e o ca i a goo s a y i us y A cu e ices Mi io k o e a e A1 G oss i e ca i a o ma io y y e o ca i a goo s a y i us y e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea 9 a e A11 E o s o goo s a se ices A cu e ices Mi io k o e 1 a e A E o s o goo s a se ices e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea 11 a e A13 Im o s o goo s a se ices A cu e ices Mi io k o e 1 a e A1 Im o s o goo s a se ices e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea 13 a e A15 a a ce o ayme s Summa y A cu e ices Mi io k o e 1 a e A1 Em oye e so s y i us y Em oyees a se -em oye 1 15 a e A17 Em oye e so s y i us y Em oyees a se -em oye e ce age c a ge om e same e io i e e ious yea 1
42 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
i a co sum io e . o ouse . a IS s 4 0 20 8 0 0 826 26 2 64 42 26 24 4 66 4 8 48 02 ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e . . 46 6 4 2 6 20 6 8 26 6 8 6 2 28 0 4 0 4 62 Goo s 26 4 282 6 0 2 8 4 6 60 6 82 8 6 66 8 2 2 0 264 8 8 Se ices 8 206 82 2 8 862 62 4 422 2 0 4 2 4 46 486 82 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse . 4 2 6 2 48 4 48 4 4 2 8 4 8 i ec u c ases y o esi e s 468 66 6 4 02 26 • 2 8 6 22 4 0 2 6 80 062 i a co sum io e . o S s 4 24 6 8 2 6 26 88 6 6 486 6 6 6 6 608 6 8 0 6 4 i a co sum io e . o ge e a go e me . 206 6 2 8 22 2 644 4 06 0 8 8 020 8 2 6 60 6 6 i a co sum io e . o ce a go e me 82 60 86 4 6 2 2 22 04 22 4 22 2 6 2 24 0 Ce a go e me , ci i ia 60 2 62 8 68 4 6 842 6 0 8 6 664 6 8 40 6 Ce a go e me , e e ce 2 88 2 466 24 8 8 2 2 6 6 0 0 6 8 6 28 6 8 i a co sum io e . o oca go e me . 24 40 864 44 228 2 6 2 0 0 4 286 28 6 0 4
G oss i e ca i a o ma io 2 6 2 2 4 0 286 46 6 6 0 8 64 28 68 446 2 808 80 2 e o eum ac i i ies 0 62 42 8 2 4 4 4 6 6 6 0 0 20 4 2 26 24 22 Ocea a s o 82 0 sn 4 2 46 2 2 4 80 2 686 2 408 Mai a o way 8 0 80 8 2 020 4 44 2 4 42 46 4 48 86 4 0 Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me 2 0 42 4 2 2 6 4 8 0 6 46 40 82 4 82 6 06 4 80 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 8 8 0 4 2 6 4 8 4 4 6 48 4 0 40 6 48 o uc io o o e goo s 4 6 0 4 6 680 4 4 64 2 4 8 4 6 4 0 0 we i g se ices 2 24 0 6 62 4 6 8 22 824 8 8 2 O e se ices 6 4 4 82 8 260 4 22 44 0 20 84 2 0 Ge e a go e me 604 4 40 44 08 8 84 0 4 8 44 0 0 4 2 4 4 C a ges i s ocks a s a . isc e a cies 82 8 6 0 2 664 8 4 248 2 22 4 8 6 62 620 G oss ca i a o ma io 2 2 0 8 2 2 860 6 6 8 6 24 4 8 4 6 0 04 0 84 2
i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices . . 2 8 0 04 600 2 0 2 04 2 2 64 268 822 28 0 2 02 i a ema om Mai a o way 2 8 6 02 6 8 48 224 2 2 2 8 2 0 06 226 6 2 0 2 0 8 264 4 i a ema om ge e a go e me . 2 8 2 6 2 2 8 88 6 46 6 2 66 60 6 46 68 0 0 4 4 26
o a e o s 4 4 482 448 6 4 4 0 0 2 2 4 4 4 66 26 02 82 4 8 a i io a goo s 84 6 2 8 6 6 42 2 42 4 2 0 46 40 42 44 42 48 4 64 C u e oi a a u a gas 6 688 6 6 4 8 04 8 4 40 220 4 0 444 2 4 2 88 26 2 S i s a oi a o ms 4 0 6 0 2 2 482 2 6 2 4 88 Se ices 2 6 04 8 08 0 26 8 2 6 2 0 26 44 26 2 2 2 46
o a use o goo s a se ices 4 640 460 64 8 6 60 6 6 460 88 64 80 2 4 4
o a im o s 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 00 4 00 02 02 64 08 0 a i io a goo s 22 6 2 8 22 26 60 84 8 4 66 68 64 6 64 6 848 C u e oi 448 08 8 446 288 6 26 S i s a oi a o ms 68 26 04 2 6 4 6 466 0 0 4 62 4 446 Se ices 84 824 0 2 0 4 2 60 2 82 28 8 2 006 28 48
G oss omes ic o uc 0 6 8 08 0 2 0 082 266 8 2 2 2 288 8 2 0 4 2 4 2 8 8 286 62 Mai a o way (ma ke ices 8 2 8 08 6 8 2 8 22 2 8 4 0 228 2 2 4 6 244 4 2 620
e o eum ac i i ies a ocea a s o . . 8 S 6 24 4 4 4 04 4 6 0 8 42 0 6 8 40 00 Mai a o way ( asic ices 24 00 8 6 6 0 4 4 42 204 66 200 4 202 26 2 68 2 8 Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me . 6 4 60 604 6 6 6 4 2 2 2 0 62 2 6 8 8 808 6 4 2 2 6 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 66 20 2 4 8 0 8 28 2 2 608 2 8 2 66 666 4 4 2 o uc io o o e goo s 8 0 86 806 4 6 8 8 2 66 24 4 6 2 8 2 2 2 8 Se ice i us ies 4 6 400 8 42 00 2 00 800 0 26 0 44 06 0 8 2 2 8 Ge e a go e me 6 866 66 2 80 80 4 0 4 4 8 42 6 4 06 44 46 2 4 62 Co ec io i ems 08 44 24 64 2 442 6 464 2 80 8 0 8 4 042
G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices, w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices 2 e i e as o a i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io i Mai a o way e i e as i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io om ge e a go e me 4 IS : o o i i s i u io s se i g ouse o s 2 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A2. i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . A co s a 6 ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
i a co sum io e . o ouse . a IS s 4 0 08 24 8 24 006 2 4 8 4 2 4 28 8 4 2 40 40 ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e . . 46 6 48 6 4 86 84 2 6 2 2 8 2 0 2 62 4 24 Goo s 26 4 2 4 28 468 66 0 68 22 488 64 288 68 8 62 80 2 Se ices 8 202 06 20 0 4 0 24 4 682 4 0 24 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse . 4 2 4 8 22 286 4 6 2 4 0 2 666 0 i ec u c ases y o esi e s 468 88 680 8 2 04 802 6 0 6 2 8 2 i a co sum io e . o IS s 4 24 6 8 24 24 2 6 222 6 2 6 28 6 2 4 6 6 6 6 i a co sum io e . o ge e a go e me . 206 6 2 2 600 220 4 2 08 2 8 4 0 4 0 6 i a co sum io e . o ce a go e me 82 60 84 26 8 6 20 22 2 004 2 26 2 2 642 2 840 2 68 Ce a go e me , ci i ia 60 2 6 6 2 2 0 2 6 0 8 84 6 0 2 6 0 2 Ce a go e me , e e ce 2 88 22 24 2 6 68 6 8 2 828 8 6 i a co sum io e . o oca go e me . 24 40 28 8 0 6 86 6 2 2 2 8 2
G oss i e ca i a o ma io 2 6 2 248 804 268 6 62 6 2 6 2 68 6 2 64 0 6 8 8 2 e o eum ac i i ies 0 42 4 8 6 0 4 6 2 4 8 6 00 22 4 Ocea a s o 82 0 2 4 0 0 2 0 2 8 8 4 40 48 2 6 4 2 442 Mai a o way 8 0 228 8 48 4 44 82 0 6 2 42 44 6 46 2 0 Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me 2 0 4 8 0 44 86 4 6 2 40 80 4 40 26 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 8 8 0 20 44 4 8 4 00 6 266 6 4 8 6 6 2 8 o uc io o o e goo s 4 2 60 4 84 4 4 2 28 4 4 2 4 4 864 we i g se ices 2 24 2 48 2 2 0 06 8 460 2 6 0 4 0 O e se ices 6 4 8 062 8 24 22 0 6 8 0 4 2 6 0 Ge e a go e me 604 8 6 8 8 6 8 6 0 4 2 8 88 62 24 6 C a ges i s ocks a s a . isc e a cies 82 8 808 28 608 4 4 2 4 8 2 62 G oss ca i a o ma io 2 2 0 8 26 6 2 2 6 86 6 466 2 6 2 20 8 8
i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices . . . . 2 8 88 4 042 68 244 8 24 88 264 24 24 08 2 4 26 04 2 84 i a ema om Mai a o way 2 8 6 02 00 6 28 0 8 220 48 226 8 242 2 8 468 22 2 48 246 0 i a ema om ge e a go e me . . 2 8 24 2 0 6 864 6 6 4 64 26 6 0 64 424 64 2 4 6 2
o a e o s 4 4 482 4 440 22 0 084 0 48 08 04 0 60 0 4 a i io a goo s 84 68 60 4 04 4 00 4 4 44 0 4 620 4 604 4 6 6 4 8 C u e oi a a u a gas 6 688 0 8 28 8 426 4 2 4 8 82 0 8 S i s a oi a o ms 4 0 20 0 8 2 6 2 2 2 4 82 2 0 2 Se ices 2 6 446 0 66 24 8 2 4 0 2 0 24 82 2 2 066 24 4
o a use o goo s a se ices 4 640 426 460 482 8 4 86 40 6 26 64 2 62 8 68 664 86 2 6
o a im o s 2 0 66 4 8 4 2 400 044 8 066 062 8 20 06 044 a i io a goo s 22 6 24 2 6 264 2 6 8 2 66 00 64 8 4 6 6 6 86 6 4 C u e oi 60 8 4 4 48 6 4 422 4 0 4 S i s a oi a o ms 68 24 26 28 8 6 682 0 4 8 8 0 08 2 68 Se ices 84 824 26 0 6 24 4 28 0 0 2 60 24 0 2 00 2 28 26 0
G oss omes ic o uc 0 6 8 060 066 082 4 6 26 8 26 00 2 2 266 06 26 8 26 44 280 2 Mai a o way (ma ke ices 8 2 86 8 8 24 2 60 2 0 22 68 2 8 62 2 84 22 2 2
e o eum ac i i ies a ocea a s o . . 8 6 6 0 4 84 24 4 8 4 2 8 4 0 48 44 46 2 0 42 46 882 Mai a o way ( asic ices 24 00 42 80 28 8 482 0 4 0 482 0 4 6 0 8 202 0 Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me . 6 4 2 6 6 2 4 8 0 4 6 02 0 40 4 6 4 4 60 8 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 66 6 8 8 20 0 0 2 60 0 8 0 88 2 6 28 408 0 2 o uc io o o e goo s 8 0 82 8 6 8 26 2 02 22 804 2 08 66 2 66 2 0 Se ice i us ies 4 6 6 4 0 2 8 280 2 0 0 8 664 02 2 02 6 06 80 Ge e a go e me 6 866 60 64 68 88 40 062 40 60 40 42 40 820 4 4 4 Co ec io i ems 08 44 6 60 28 4 8 2 248 2 8 26 680 2 4 0
G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices, w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices 2 e i e as o a i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io i Mai a o way e i e as i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io om ge e a go e me 4 IS : o o i i s i u io s se i g ouse o s A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
i a co sum io e . o ouse . a IS s , , , ,2 4, 4, 4,2 ,4 ,6 ,4 ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e . . , ,8 , ,4 4, 4,4 4, ,6 , ,6 Goo s , ,6 ,8 6,2 4,8 4, , 4,4 , 0, Se ices 2, , 2,6 , ,2 , ,2 2,4 2,2 2,6 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse . 6, 8,6 4,0 , , 0,0 6, ,0 , ,0 i ec u c ases y o esi e s ,4 ,8 ,2 ,4 2,4 2, , ,2 ,6 2, i a co sum io e . o IS s 4 2,6 ,4 0, , ,6 ,8 0, 0,4 , 2, i a co sum io e . o ge e a go e me . 2,8 2,8 , 2, 2, ,0 , ,6 4, ,2 i a co sum io e . o ce a go e me , 2, , 2,2 ,6 2, 4, ,4 4,0 ,0 Ce a go e me , ci i ia , ,6 4, , ,2 , ,0 4,0 4,6 ,6 Ce a go e me , e e ce , 4, , 4, 2,8 4, 2, ,8 2, ,4 i a co sum io e . o oca go e me . 2,6 ,2 , ,4 2, ,2 , ,6 4,2 ,
G oss i e ca i a o ma io , , 8, 22,8 , , 8,4 2,2 0, ,0 e o eum ac i i ies 2,6 ,6 2 , 4,8 , 0,6 , 0,0 4, 42, Ocea a s o 2, , 6, 26,8 80,8 0,6 40,6 , ,2 2 , Mai a o way , 2,8 2,4 , , 0, , ,4 4,2 0,6 Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me . , , 2, ,0 , 2,6 8,2 0,2 , 2, Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 4, 6,8 ,6 , 0, 4, 6,2 0, 2 ,4 0, o uc io o o e goo s 8,6 8,2 0, 0, ,8 2, ,2 , 2, ,6 we i g se ices 0, 8,2 0,6 ,4 8,0 8,0 , , , , O e se ices 20, 4, 2,2 4,4 6, ,0 8, 0, , , Ge e a go e me ,8 8, ,4 2 ,2 , 4,8 , , ,4 , C a ges i s ocks a s a . isc e a cies . . . 4 , 8, 2, 4 ,8 24, 22,8 8, 4 , ,8 G oss ca i a o ma io ,0 , ,2 28, , 4, 8,0 4, 2, ,
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o a e o s , , 0, , 6,4 ,6 8,0 , ,6 0,8 a i io a goo s 0,0 8,0 ,4 , , , 4,2 , 0, 2,6 C u e oi a a u a gas , 2, ,8 , 2, ,6 2, ,4 8,8 6,0 S i s a oi a o ms 6,8 , ,0 2 , ,6 28,6 2,2 26,8 20,6 4, Se ices ,8 ,2 2, , 8,6 ,8 ,4 2, ,4 2,4
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o a im o s 8,0 2,0 , 22, ,8 6, ,6 ,8 6,8 , a i io a goo s ,8 8, ,6 4, 6,4 , 8,2 6, , ,2 C i e oi 0,4 ,0 2 , 46, 6 , 42,4 4 ,0 2, 2, 2 , S i s a oi a o ms 2 ,2 ,2 ,0 84,6 6,0 4 ,2 ,6 24,0 ,2 08,6 Se ices 0,6 ,0 6,0 2 ,8 6,8 6,2 , 4, ,8 ,
G oss omes ic o uc 4, 4, 2, 6,2 ,6 , 4, , , 0,4 Mai a o way (ma ke ices ,8 4,4 , 6, 4, , , 2,6 ,4 ,6
e o eum ac i i ies a ocea a s o . . ,0 , ,2 ,6 2, 4,2 0,4 2, ,6 , Mai a o way ( asic ices 2,6 4, ,6 6,0 4, , 6, 2, 2, 2, Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me . 2,6 4,6 , , ,4 ,8 , 2,8 ,0 2,6 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g , 2,8 2,8 , 2, 4,8 8, 0,2 2, 0, o uc io o o e goo s , ,6 ,2 , , 0,0 , 0,6 2,0 , Se ice i us ies 4,4 4, 4,4 6,2 , , 6,6 4,0 , ,6 Ge e a go e me 2, 2,2 2, 2, , 2, 2,8 2, 2,6 2,2 Co ec io i ems 2,6 6,8 ,4 8,4 6, 0, ,6 2, 6,4 4,2
G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices, w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices 2 e i e as o a i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io i Mai a o way e i e as i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io om ge e a go emme 4 S : o o i i s i u io s se i g ouse o s 4 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A4. i a e e i u e a g oss omes ic o uc . e ce age c a ge i ices om e same e io i e e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
i a co sum io e . o ouse . a IS s , 2, 2,6 2, 2, , , 2,6 2,8 2, ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e . . ,4 2,4 2,4 2, 2, , , 2, 2,6 2,6 Goo s 0, 2,8 , ,2 2,2 ,6 ,0 , 2,0 , Se ices 2, 2, ,2 2, 2, 2, 2,8 ,0 , ,4 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse . ,4 0, , 0, 0,6 0, ,4 ,0 4,6 8, i ec u c ases y o esi e s , ,2 , ,0 , ,2 ,8 , ,6 ,6 i a co sum io e . o IS s 4 ,4 2, , 2, 2, 2, , 4, 6, 8,4 i a co sum io e . o ge e a go e me . ,4 2,6 ,0 2,8 ,0 2, ,0 4,0 , , i a co sum io e . o ce a go e me ,0 2, 4, 2,6 ,0 2,0 ,0 , 4, , Ce a go e me , ci i ia 2,6 2, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4,0 ,0 , Ce a go e me , e e ce 4, 2,4 4,0 2,4 4,0 ,2 , , ,6 ,4 i a co sum io e . o oca go e me . , 2, , 2, ,0 2, ,0 4, 6,4 8,2
G oss i e ca i a o ma io 2,2 2,2 4, 2,2 , 2, , 4,8 ,8 , e o eum ac i i ies 4,4 ,2 4, 4, ,0 ,6 6,8 6, 4, , Ocea a s o ,2 6, , ,8 , ,2 0,6 0,4 0,0 8,2 Mai a o way ,4 0, 4,2 ,0 2,0 0, 4, 4, 4,2 4,4 Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me ,2 0, 4, 0,8 , 0,6 4,4 4,6 4, 4,4 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 0,2 0,0 , 0, 0,0 0,4 2, , , 2, o uc io o o e goo s 2,4 0, 4,0 ,4 ,6 0,2 4, 4, ,4 4,4 we i g se ices , 2, 4, 2, , ,8 ,8 4, , , O e se ices 0,6 0,2 4,6 0, 2,0 0,4 , 4, , 4,6 Ge e a go e me , ,6 ,8 ,8 2, 2,0 2,8 ,0 4,6 4, C a ges i s ocks a s a . isc e a cies 2, 0, 4, 8 ,2 , 84,8 8,6 0,2 ,4 ,6 G oss ca i a o ma io 2, 2,0 4,2 ,8 2,4 0, ,6 4,4 4, 2,
i a omes ic use o goo s a se ices . . • • 2,2 2,4 , ,0 2, , ,2 ,4 ,8 , i a ema om Mai a o way 2 , 2,2 , 2,4 2,4 ,6 2,6 , ,8 4,2 i a ema om ge e a go e me . . ,2 2, 4,8 2, 2, 2,0 ,0 , , 6,
o a e o s , 2,4 8,2 , 4,0 ,4 4, ,6 ,8 2,4 a i io a goo s ,2 0, ,0 ,8 , ,4 , , 0,6 , C u e oi a a u a gas 2 , 2,4 24, 2, 2, , ,2 20,4 2 , , S i s a oi a o ms , ,4 2, , , 8, ,0 0, 4,2 2,0 Se ices ,8 , 0,8 ,2 , 8,0 , 0, 0, 2,
o a use o goo s a se ices , 2,4 0, 2, ,0 0, 0,6 0,8 0,2 0,
o a im o s , ,4 , 0,8 4,8 , 4,0 2, 0, 0,2 a i io a goo s 0, ,0 , , 2, 0, ,0 2,2 0,2 0, C u e oi ,0 0,0 26,4 , 2,4 ,8 22, ,2 2 ,2 , S i s a oi a o ms ,6 , , , ,4 8,6 , ,4 8,4 ,6 Se ices 4,4 , ,8 ,6 8, , 6, 6,2 ,6 2,2
G oss omes ic o uc 4, 2, 0,4 , 2, 0, 0, 0,0 0,2 , Mai a o way (ma ke ices , 2, 4,2 ,2 2,2 , , 4, 4,8 4,
e o eum ac i i ies a ocea a s o . . , 2,8 2 ,2 2, , 6, 6, , 2 ,6 0,8 Mai a o way ( asic ices , 2, 4,4 2, ,6 2, 2, ,8 6, 4, Mai a o way e c . ge e a go e me . , 2, 4,0 2,4 ,2 2, 2, , 6, ,4 Ma u ac u i g a mi i g 0, 2,8 6, 2, 0,8 ,2 ,2 , 8,6 , o uc io o o e goo s 4,4 4, , ,2 ,0 2, 2,0 ,8 0,0 , Se ice i us ies , , 2, ,8 ,4 ,6 0,8 2,2 , 2, Ge e a go e me 4,4 ,6 6,2 ,6 , ,2 ,2 ,0 ,6 8, Co ec io i ems 0, 2,8 2,8 6, ,6 4, , , 8, 6,2
G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices, w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices 2 e i e as o a i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io i Mai a o way e i e as i a co sum io e e i u e us g oss i e ca i a o ma io om ge e a go e me 4 S : o o i i s i u io s se i g ouse o s A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . G oss omes ic o uc a a ue a e y i us y. A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
G oss omes ic o uc 0 6 8 08 0 2 0 082 266 8 2 2 2 288 8 2 0 4 2 4 2 8 8 286 62
Ag icu u e a u i g 8 8 2 26 2 6 42 042 2 6 6 6 o es y a oggi g 2 64 2 0 2 82 2 6 486 4 4 408 is i g a is a mi g 0 6 2 020 6 8 4 2 2 020 2 80 2 0 2 2 2 Oi a gas e ac io i c . se ices 4 6 66 8 6 42 280 40 8 4 2 4 4 2 2 8 26 2 880 Oi a gas e ac io 0 0 6 08 86 4 8 8 6 4 6 2 4 2 4 24 0 24 4 Se ice ac . i ci e a o oi a gas e .. • • 4 260 224 8 826 02 2 0 8 82 2 2 4 2 2 4 Mi i g a qua yi g 2 60 2 226 2 8 84 4 606 8 2 Ma u ac u i g 6 8 0 4 2 0 4 2 6 2 024 2 0 28 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco . . . 08 4 0 4 4 4 44 4 2 4 2 4 8 4 68 4 64 e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e 2 28 2 0 6 4 2 6 4 2 0 Woo a woo o uc s 4 0 8 4 84 4 2 4 84 6 24 242 066 u , a e a a e o uc s 4 0 4 22 6 48 u is i g, i i g, e o uc io 2 604 2 4 22 22 4 0 4 2 6 e i e e o eum o uc s 66 2 4 6 624 8 60 2 86 0 6 20 asic c emica s 6 6 86 6 8 6 688 6 8 8 606 6 C emica a mi e a o uc s 0 0 202 0 4 2 626 2 2 2 2 6 2 68 2 8 asic me a s 8 4 6 8 288 2 2 88 2 8 2 6 2 66 2 4 2 2 08 Mac i e y a o e equi me e c 2 8 4 6 2 2 6 848 8 6 8 8 62 8 62 ui i g o s i s, oi a o ms a mo u s. . 0 64 86 604 2 6 2 8 260 2 2 0 8 umi u e a o e ma u ac u i g .e.c.. . . 8 4 4 44 4 466 086 2 8 084 0 E ec ici y a gas su y 22 06 2 2 2 6 4 4 0 4 20 4 0 Co s uc io 4 602 4 42 66 8 0 0 602 8 0 2 0 Se ice i us ies e c u e ge e a go emme 404 040 42 2 4 8 0 8 0 2 4 8 0 024 064 6 W o esa e a e ai a e 8 8 626 02 860 24 4 24 02 2 8 24 084 24 8 26 2 682 o e s a es au a s 2 80 6 2 6 24 6 02 800 4 6 4 0 8 a s o ia i e i es 2 0 8 86 4 2 8 2 42 64 0 6 6 Wa e a s o 8 6 8 2 2 262 4 6 4 2 8 4 4 4 286 4 Ocea a s o 6 0 2 22 2 4 62 4 002 66 4 2 6 4 2 I a wa e a cos a a s o 2 0 2 6 2 640 6 8 6 6 O e a s o i us ies 4 2 44 28 4 6 2 06 0 0 08 0 808 2 40 2 0 2 os a e ecommu ica io s 2 8 2 82 4 22 4 66 0 4 8 4 4 4 446 i a cia i e me ia io 8 446 6 8 2 6 000 42 28 2 8 we i g se ices 6 6 6 8 68 46 6 40 6 608 6 6 88 0 8 24 usi ess se ices e c 860 6 46 0 44 6 82 6 4 0 6 8 8 0 e so a se ices 0 2 2 4 668 60 2 4 6 8 4 4 4 6 4 8 6 4 Ge e a go e me 6 866 66 2 80 80 4 0 4 4 8 42 6 4 06 44 46 2 4 62 Ce a go e me 46 006 48 48 2 046 2 20 2 88 2 2 24 466 Ci i ia ce a go e me 4 422 6 86 8 22 000 4 20 40 00 0 0 08 e e ce 84 2 0 6 2 2 8 0 8 068 4 2 oca go e me 0 860 64 28 4 2 0 2 64 0 2 0 4 0 82 2 86 8 6
ISIM 2 0 4 28 466 8 6 2 8 2 0 6 88 46 4 8 a ue a e a a i es me e y 0 8 04 0 4 2 2 26 4 28 0 2 4 2 2 844 0 2 O e a es o o uc s, e 42 280 44 08 44 8 24 2 62 8 2 20 0 24 2 666 S a is ica isc e a cy 0 4 6 0 0 20 2 0 480 2
Mai a o way ( asic ices 24 00 8 6 6 0 4 4 42 204 66 200 4 202 26 2 68 2 8 Ma ke o uce s 6 0 6 22 4 6 200 6 2 2 6 422 4 2 0 8 0 o ma ke o uce s 2 4 62 246 26 2 6 0 62 4 6 2 6 6 2 64 8 6 8 68 8 E uca io 4 8 6 44 6 48 0 24 02 426 40 826 2 24 2 622 ea a socia wo k 6 42 82 4 2 20 268 20 0 2 2 8 2 8 22 2 6 24 0 2
G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices, w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices 2 i a cia i e me ia io se ices i i ec y measu e 6 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A6. G oss omes ic o uc a a ue a e y i us y. e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
G oss omes ic o uc 4, 4, 2, 6,2 ,6 , 4, , , 0,4
Ag icu u e a u i g , 4, ,8 , 2, 8, ,6 6,0 6, ,6 o es y a oggi g ,0 0, , , 2,8 , 20, , 6,4 6 , is i g a is a mi g 2,4 , , 2 ,2 , ,8 ,8 ,2 , ,6 Oi a gas e ac io i c . se ices , 4,2 4,0 , 2, ,4 0,0 2, 6, ,0 Oi a gas e ac io ,4 , , 4,8 2,4 ,2 0, 2, 6,6 , Se ice ac . i ci e a o oi a gas e .. 20, 0, 8,2 4 , 8,0 ,4 ,2 , ,8 4,8 Mi i g a qua yi g ,2 2, 0,8 6,2 0,0 0,4 6, 2, 0,6 ,0 Ma u ac u i g , 2,8 2,8 , 2,8 4, 8,4 0,2 ,0 0,4 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco . 0,2 0,6 ,4 , , , 2,4 2,6 2, 2, e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e 0, ,4 4, 4, 6, , 2, 2,6 4,2 0, Woo a woo o uc s 4,2 , 0,0 , 4,6 ,6 , , 2,0 8, u , a e a a e o uc s 0,4 4,4 0,0 , , 8,2 6,4 , 2, 6,6 u is i g, i i g, e o uc io ,8 , 0,8 2, 0, 0, ,4 , ,8 ,8 e i e e o eum o uc s , 2,8 , 6,6 ,4 , 0, 8, 0,2 6,4 asic c emica s 2,2 2, 4,6 , ,8 2, ,6 6, ,6 , C emica a mi e a o uc s 8,2 , 0,2 ,8 2, 0, ,6 0,0 6,8 2, asic me a s , ,2 ,2 6,6 0, 4, 4, 2, ,8 ,2 Mac i e y a o e equi me e c 4, , , 2, 4,8 ,4 2, 2,4 4, 2, ui i g o s i s, oi a o ms a mo u s. , ,2 8, 6,0 2,0 2, 4, ,0 ,6 0, u i u e a o e ma u ac u i g .e.c.. . , 8,2 6, 22, , 8,4 24,4 2, ,0 ,6 E ec ici y a gas su y , 6,6 4,8 ,4 8,0 2 ,4 ,8 0,6 , , Co s uc io 0,6 ,2 ,4 ,2 ,8 0, ,6 , , ,8 Se ice i us ies e c u e ge e a go e me 4, 4,6 4, 6, 4, 4,8 6, , ,0 ,6 W o esa e a e ai a e , , ,2 8, ,0 6,0 ,0 ,8 6, 2, o e s a es au a s , ,6 4, 6, 8,2 0,8 ,6 4, 2,8 ,0 a s o ia i e i es 2 ,6 ,2 ,4 0, 8,8 , , 0,8 ,0 2, Wa e a s o ,0 2, ,4 , , , 4,0 , 2,6 8, Ocea a s o 0, 2,4 , ,2 0, 2, , ,4 2, ,0 I a wa e a cos a a s o 2,0 ,0 4,2 , 6, 6, 0,0 0, , 2,8 O e a s o i us ies , 6, ,4 2,0 4,2 , , 2, 2, 2, os a e ecommu ica io s 8, ,4 , 6,4 , 6, ,8 8,0 8, 8, i a cia i e me ia io 0,0 ,4 4, 2, ,0 6, ,8 ,0 , , we i g se ices 0,4 ,0 ,2 ,0 ,0 , , , ,2 ,2 usi ess se ices e c ,4 ,2 8, 0, 0,2 ,0 ,2 ,2 ,8 , e so a se ices ,8 ,0 2,8 2, 4, ,8 , 4, ,4 0,4 Ge e a go e me 2, 2,2 2, 2, , 2, 2,8 2, 2,6 2,2 Ce a go e me , ,8 , ,8 ,6 , 2, , 2,2 , Ci i ia ce a go e me 2, 2, ,6 2, 2, 2,6 2, 0,6 2, , e e ce ,2 0, 2, 0,4 0, 0,0 ,4 2,6 2, , oca go e me 2,8 2,4 2, 2,4 2, 2,4 2, 2,8 2,8 2,4
ISIM 2 0,0 2,8 ,0 2, , , ,8 ,8 ,2 20, a ue a e a a i es me e y , , ,4 , 6, ,4 4, ,6 4, , O e a es o o uc s, e , 2, 0, , , 4, , ,8 ,0 2, S a is ica isc e a cy 00,0 . 0, , . ,8 2 , 2 , 86, 0 ,8
Mai a o way ( asic ices 2,6 4, ,6 6,0 4, , 6, 2, 2, 2, Ma ke o uce s 4, 4,6 2, , , ,8 6,0 ,6 , 0, o ma ke o uce s ,6 2,2 2,0 2, 2,0 2, 2,4 , 2,0 , E uca io 2, 2, , 2,0 , 2, ,6 ,2 ,4 , ea a socia wo k 4,4 , ,6 , 4, 4,0 4,6 4,6 , 2,
G oss omes ic o uc is measu e a ma ke ices, w i e a ue a e y i us y is measu e a asic ices 2 i a cia i e me ia io se ices i i ec y measu e A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e. A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e . . 46 6 4 2 6 20 6 8 26 6 8 6 2 28 0 4 0 4 62
oo , e e ages a o acco 00 864 06 4 24 88 26 84 2 8 22 2 26 4 2 482 2 0 C o i g a oo wea 28 2 2 8 6 4 0 6 6 6 24 604 808 80 ousi g, wa e , e ec ., gas a o e ue s . . 0 664 0 66 2 0 26 2 0 28 2 8 26 68 26 46 2 46 u is i gs, ouse o equi me e c 2 0 400 4 0 6 6 8 0 08 0 0 6 2 422 8 6 6 0 266 ea 2 2 6 68 46 48 0 2 8 4 02 a s o 64 82 84 8 8 2 48 22 80 0 22 2 42 626 eisu e, e e ai me a cu u e 44 0 8 4 06 84 0 2 2 284 4 2 6 2 06 8 E uca io 2 2 2 2 4 4 6 642 60 8 6 8 6 o e s, ca es a es au a s 26 8 0 2 826 2 4 8 86 8 0 406 6 2 8 46 84 8 0 6 Misce a eous goo s a se ices 466 4 02 44 288 0 22 0 6 2 8 0 2 0 0 2 0 2 i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse .. 4 2 6 2 48 4 48 4 4 2 8 4 8 i ec u c ases y o esi e s 468 66 6 4 02 26 2 8 6 22 4 0 2 6 80 062
Goo s 26 4 282 6 0 2 8 4 6 60 6 82 8 6 66 8 2 2 0 264 8 8 Se ices 8 206 82 2 8 862 62 4 422 2 0 4 2 4 46 486 82 Se ices, we i gs 84 6 8 6 2 0 2 84 22 0 0 22 2 22 4 22 6 22 2 04 O e se ices 2 8 2 2 2 2 88 2 2 2 2 2 0 4 2 2 40
a e A8. ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e. e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
ouse o i a co sum io e e i u e . . , ,8 , ,4 4, 4,4 4, ,6 , ,6
oo , e e ages a o acco , ,2 0,4 0,2 , 2, , ,6 2,0 , C o i g a oo wea 0,4 4, 8, ,2 4, , , , 4,6 6,0 ousi g, wa e , e ec ., gas a o e ue s . 2,2 0,8 2, ,2 0, 2,2 2, ,4 2,6 ,6 u is i gs, ouse o equi me e c 2, , , ,6 ,8 ,6 ,4 ,8 2, 0,4 ea ,0 6,2 6,0 6, 8, 8, , ,6 ,2 2,4 a s o ,6 ,0 0, 8, 2,4 0, 2,0 0,0 2, 2, eisu e, e e ai me a cu u e , 6,8 ,0 0,6 8,2 , 0,8 ,0 ,2 , E uca io ,8 ,0 , , , 4, 2, ,2 , ,6 o e s, ca es a es au a s 4, ,4 4,0 4, ,6 , 4, 6,4 2, 2,6 Misce a eous goo s a se ices , , , 6,0 , , ,8 , 4, 4, i ec u c ases a oa y esi e ouse 6, 8,6 4,0 , , 0,0 6, ,0 , ,0 i ec u c ases y o esi e s ,4 ,8 ,2 ,4 2,4 2, , ,2 ,6 2,
Goo s , ,6 ,8 6,2 4,8 4, , 4,4 , 0, Se ices 2, , 2,6 , ,2 , ,2 2,4 2,2 2,6 Se ices, we i gs ,8 0,8 , 0, 0, 0,6 , , ,6 , O e se ices ,8 4, , , ,0 ,4 4,8 , 2, ,4 8 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . G oss i e ca i a o ma io y y e o ca i a goo s a y i us y. A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
G oss i e ca i a o ma io 2 6 2 2 4 0 286 46 6 6 0 8 64 28 68 446 2 808 80 2
ui i gs a s uc u es 8 2 8 8 4 0 04 4 2 24 448 28 0 6 24 00 24 2 26 2 2 24 Oi e o a io , i i g, i e i es 20 226 28 046 2 82 0 8 00 8 6 8 686 8 Oi a o ms e c 28 2 0 4 4 8 0 08 2 6 2 0 426 0 8 4 8 S i s a oa s 04 8 6 28 2 8 2 04 2 8 O e a s o equi me 22 8 2 2 2 224 80 62 6 6 04 6 08 86 6 0 Mac i e y a equi me 2 006 6 68 0 4 06 4 2 6 6 26 8 00 20 2
Ag icu u e a u i g 6 448 6 48 6 0 4 4 068 8 2 o es y a oggi g 6 8 42 40 42 42 4 4 48 is i g a is a mi g 04 2 2 2 06 4 60 260 864 4 46 04 Oi a gas e ac io , i c . se ices 4 4 2 60 66 2 606 4 82 4 042 8 46 8 22 0 Oi a gas e ac io 4 8 0 2 2 842 4 26 4 48 8 6 8 684 0 Se ice ac . i ci e a o oi a gas e .. 4 44 4 28 22 2 6 06 2 0 2 4 Mi i g a qua yi g 64 2 6 0 4 44 0 8 Ma u ac u i g 4 8 82 20 8 4 0 4 42 6 2 6 4 26 862 6 6 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco 42 62 88 8 2 8 8 8 4 e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e 220 2 8 2 4 6 62 6 8 48 62 Woo a woo o uc s 2 62 4 42 4 0 0 4 u , a e a a e o uc s 60 2 42 40 2 80 826 44 u is i g, i i g, e o uc io 42 2 2 06 44 6 4 2 424 0 8 e i e e o eum o uc s 4 40 06 2 6 06 4 asic c emica s 2 08 800 2 6 4 0 6 8 262 2 66 86 C emica a mi e a o uc s 8 8 2 2 8 2 4 68 6 ns 08 0 4 4 6 4 asic me a s 2 080 2 4 4 46 0 46 4 6 4 4 Mac i e y a o e equi me e c 48 2 4 6 8 6 4 4 8 008 2 ui i g o s i s, oi a o ms a mo u s. 0 860 00 2 6 2 8 0 60 umi u e a o e ma u ac u i g .e.c.. 0 4 64 0 42 06 62 208 E ec ici y a gas su y 4 0 4 86 4 862 4 24 8 800 2 8 42 Co s uc io 2 6 2 4 2 666 6 6 6 6 68 6 4 6 2 Se ice i us ies e c .ge e a go e me 06 6 26 840 4 262 0 2 2 846 4 4 8 0 4 8 6 W o esa e a e ai a e 22 4 26 28 28 8 0 6 0 6 4 6 6 6 2 4 26 2 o e s a es au a s 2 00 2 4 2 42 0 6 2 68 66 0 a s o ia i e i es 8 68 8 8 2 28 2 88 2 4 2 008 2 2 48 8 Wa e a s o 6 6 2 44 2 4 4 2 68 2 8 2 6 Ocea a s o 82 0 8 4 2 46 2 2 4 80 2 686 2 408 I a wa e a cos a a s o 6 040 4 2 4 2 20 68 2 4 20 20 O e a s o i us ies 00 4 2 4 4 0 8 4 2 0 4 60 2 os a e ecommu ica io s 6 6 0 222 46 2 6 24 6 0 6 i a cia i e me ia io 2 6 6 4 2 2 804 28 6 60 we i g se ices 2 24 0 6 62 4 6 8 22 824 8 8 2 usi ess se ices e c 8 44 4 028 2 6 2 6 2 06 2 8 2 8 2 8 2 688 e so a se ices 6 48 0 2 6 4 2 84 2 026 4 8 8
Ge e a go e me 604 4 40 44 08 8 84 0 4 8 44 0 0 4 2 4 4 Ce a go e me 4 800 2 8 2 8 2 6 4 8 2 2 4 6 2 Ci i ia ce a go e me 0 42 2 424 2 8 44 2 08 2 886 4 0 e e ce 4 22 4 2 6 8 2 0 4 44 8 06 oca go e me 6 804 22 2 466 80 28 8 2 402 8 6
Mai a o way 8 0 80 8 2 020 4 44 2 4 42 46 4 48 86 4 0 E uca io 4 0 4 8 6 208 866 0 2 084 2 8 864 2 02 ea a socia wo k 62 8 2 0 64 86 2 0 4 2 0 2 4 0 2 2 62 2 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A 0. G oss i e ca i a o ma io y y e o ca i a goo s a y i us y. e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
G oss i e ca i a o ma io , , 8, 22,8 , , 8,4 2,2 0, ,0
ui i gs a s uc u es ,2 2, ,6 4, 0,6 2,6 , ,0 , ,2 Oi e o a io , i i g, i e i es 8,0 2 , 8,8 6, ,4 6,4 28,4 ,2 6,8 , Oi a o ms e c 4, , 28,4 46,6 , 2 , 0,8 0, 4 , 80, S i s a oa s 4,4 0, 2, 26, 8, 0,8 2 ,4 4, ,2 8,2 O e a s o equi me 2,0 , 8, ,4 ,4 6,0 2, , 2, ,0 Mac i e y a equi me 0, ,0 , 6, ,6 0,4 ,4 , 2 , ,
Ag icu u e a u i g 0, 0,2 , 0, 0, 0,4 ,4 ,8 4,4 2,6 o es y a oggi g 2,4 0,0 0, 0, 0,2 0, 0,4 0, 0,2 0,8 is i g a is a mi g , 6,6 ,8 ,8 84, ,0 2, ,4 8,8 2, Oi a gas e ac io , i c . se ices ,6 , 2 , , ,8 , 0,0 2,2 42, 4, Oi a gas e ac io , 2 , 24, 4, , 20,0 6,4 2,4 , 2, Se ice ac . i ci e a o oi a gas e .. • • 8 , 6 8, 2 0,0 6,8 ,4 Mi i g a qua yi g , 24,8 26, 2, 6,0 , 26,4 46, 0,2 2, Ma u ac u i g 4,6 , , 2, , 4,8 6,0 0,6 2 , 0,6 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco 0,4 ,8 0,2 , 4, 0, ,4 6,2 6,4 , e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e 0, , 2 ,4 0, 0,6 ,4 40,0 8,2 24,4 6,8 Woo a woo o uc s 4,4 2 ,0 26, 2 ,4 44,6 6, ,6 6,8 2 ,4 6,8 u , a e a a e o uc s , 2 ,2 48,0 2 , 42, 0 ,8 , 6,2 u is i g, i i g, e o uc io 2,8 2 , 22,4 4, 8, 8,6 ,8 ,6 00, 4, e i e e o eum o uc s 0,4 ,4 , 6 , ,6 4,6 ,4 ,6 62,6 62,4 asic c emica s , ,0 6,6 0, 4 ,6 2 ,4 , 26,6 6,4 6 ,2 C emica a mi e a o uc s 26,4 2 , , ,0 2 , , 40,4 4, ,0 6,8 asic me a s 84,4 6,6 ,0 4 ,2 , 0,4 2 , 4 ,2 2, , Mac i e y a o e equi me e c 2, 28,2 42,0 , 2 , 60, 2 , 46,2 6, , ui i g o s i s, oi a o ms a mo u s. ,8 2 , 2 , 6,4 , 2, 44,2 ,6 0, , u i u e a o e ma u ac u i g .e.c.. . 42, 2, 2 , ,2 4, ,8 4,6 26, ,2 2,4 E ec ici y a gas su y 2,0 ,0 6,6 ,8 0, ,0 28,2 4, 6,2 0,6 Co s uc io 4,8 4,4 , 2, ,4 , , 2, , ,6 Se ice i us ies e c .ge e a go e me . 4, ,2 , , 8, ,2 4, , 0, ,0 W o esa e a e ai a e 2 , , 4, 22,0 , 8,8 2, , ,8 ,4 o e s a es au a s 0, 26, 2,8 0, 4 ,2 68, ,4 26,2 , 4, a s o ia i e i es 4,6 , 0, ,4 , 4,0 , , 4, 2 ,4 Wa e a s o 4 ,6 68, , 2 , 8,4 0, 6, , ,8 22, Ocea a s o 2, , 6, 26,8 80,8 0,6 40,6 , ,2 2 , I a wa e a cos a a s o , 4 , ,2 8,2 4,4 8, 2,4 ,4 2,6 4,4 O e a s o i us ies 4 ,0 ,2 0,0 , ,4 2 , 6, 2, , ,6 os a e ecommu ica io s ,8 2, , , 2,0 , , ,8 , , i a cia i e me ia io 24, , ,0 , 0, 8, 6, 8,0 ,2 2, we i g se ices 0, 8,2 0,6 ,4 8,0 8,0 , , , , usi ess se ices e c ,8 0,6 ,0 2,6 , 0,4 6,6 , ,8 2, e so a se ices , 8, , ,0 8,2 ,4 0,0 6, ,6 4,4
Ge e a go e me ,8 8, ,4 2 ,2 , 4,8 , , ,4 , Ce a go e me 4,0 ,6 , 0, 2,0 , ,8 , 2, 8, Ci i ia ce a go e me ,4 , ,8 2, 2, 4, ,0 8,6 ,6 ,8 e e ce 0,8 2, ,6 ,8 0,6 0, ,4 4, 4, 2,4 oca go e me ,6 2, ,0 ,2 6,2 6,2 , 0,6 ,0 ,
Mai a o way , 2,8 2,4 , , 0, , ,4 4,2 0,6 E uca io 0, ,4 2 ,0 2, 28,2 , 4 , 4, 4, 2, ea a socia wo k 2,4 8,6 2 ,4 8, 8, , 24, 2 ,2 22,0 2 ,4 0 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A E o s o goo s a se ices. A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
o a e o s 4 4 482 448 6 4 4 0 0 2 2 4 4 4 66 26 02 82 4 8
Goo s 2 686 4 6 06 044 84 0 4 8 0 8 4 6 8 48 88 0 22 4 448 C u e oi a a u a gas 6 688 6 6 4 8 04 8 4 40 220 4 0 444 2 4 2 88 26 2 S i s, ew 4 2 26 64 0 2 26 2 2 88 480 268 S i s, seco a 6 4 26 2 8 8 2 4 4 4 6 0 Oi a o ms a mo u es, ew 2 66 8 2 Oi a o ms, seco a 40 00 2 8 4 2 26 40 i ec e o s e a e o e o eum ac 28 2 2 4 2 6 4 28 O e goo s 84 6 2 8 6 6 42 2 42 4 2 0 46 40 42 44 42 48 4 64 Ag icu u e, o es y a is i g 0 8 8 0 888 ns 2 8 2 20 2 0 2 8 2 Mi i g a qua yi g 2 42 2 284 2 40 6 6 60 6 8 62 Ma u ac u i g o uc s 4 484 8 6 6 0 68 42 2 4 4 68 4 42 446 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco . 28 2 4 0 2 6 4 68 00 6 668 6 24 468 2 6 6 60 e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e 2 20 2 2 460 4 6 2 6 2 6 66 Woo o uc s 2 864 2 2 2 82 6 2 6 6 0 6 80 u , a e a a e o uc s 0 8 2 0 4 2 68 2 48 2 824 04 2 020 040 i i g a u is i g 4 62 6 4 4 24 46 2 2 e i e e o eum o uc s 4 20 6 8 8 4 884 8 4 884 4 82 048 4 2 82 asic c emica s 2 0 2 6 2 4 0 6 2 8 62 4 2 400 C emica a mi e a o uc s 0 62 24 2 0 2 8 2 2 6 2 86 2 8 2 8 0 asic me a s 0 6 2 4 8 626 8 808 8 6 6 6 8 6 8 8 00 Mac i e y a o e equi me .e.c.. . . 0 24 4 46 0 2 40 0 60 0 0 0 882 0 8 2 628 umi u e a o e ma u ac u i g o uc s 6 8 8 82 0 4 0 8 8 064 E ec ici y 88 6 2 42 0 2 2 222 4 62 8
Se ices 2 6 04 8 08 0 26 8 2 6 2 0 26 44 26 2 2 2 46 G oss ecei s, s i i g 46 8 2 2 2 066 8 4 0 0 2 204 2 6 0 e o eum ac i i ies, a ious se ices 468 2 6 88 8 2 84 0 0 Oi i i g e c 4 2 22 4 4 8 8 04 22 i e i e a s o 2 8 4 0 8 0 848 8 0 0 0 6 a e 468 66 6 4 02 26 2 8 6 22 4 0 2 6 80 062 O e se ices 2 0 02 8 80 8 6 2 02 8 0 8 8 2 8 06 622 a s o , os a e ecommu ica io . . 648 8 6 22 2 02 2 8 842 2 4 2 426 2 60 2 04 i a cia a usi ess se ices 4 0 6 46 8 02 4 0 4 4 6 4 660 4 80 4 4 40 4 4 Se ices e c 4 408 4 4 4 022 200 066 2 0 084 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A 2. E o s o goo s a se ices. e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
o a e o s , , 0, , 6,4 ,6 8,0 , ,6 0,8
Goo s 0, ,2 0, ,8 , ,6 8, 2,4 4,4 ,6 C u e oi a a u a gas , 2, ,8 , 2, ,6 2, ,4 8,8 6,0 S i s, ew 0,2 22,4 6,8 , 82,2 26,2 6, ,4 2 ,6 , S i s, seco a 8,2 ,2 20,6 , ,6 , 4, 2,8 44,6 2,4 Oi a o ms a mo u es, ew , 2 6,2 , , 64 , 20, 20,6 60 ,2 , 8,6 Oi a o ms, seco a 8 , 6, 48,0 2 0,2 04, , . 2,8 8 , ,2 i ec e o s e a e o e o eum ac 26,0 4, , , , 42,2 2 ,6 ,2 , ,0 O e goo s 0,0 8,0 ,4 , , , 4,2 , 0, 2,6 Ag icu u e, o es y a is i g 4, , ,0 , 4, 4,8 8,0 4,4 4,8 ,8 Mi i g a qua yi g 2, 2, 0,4 6,6 4, 2, ,8 ,0 , , Ma u ac u i g o uc s 0,4 8, , 6, 2,2 ,0 4,2 , 0,2 ,0 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco . . ,6 6, 2, 2,8 ,6 6,4 ,8 0, ,2 0,8 e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e , 0,6 6,8 ,2 2, ,8 ,6 8,0 4,0 4, Woo o uc s ,0 ,2 2,4 ,4 8, 0,8 0,4 , ,8 , u , a e a a e o uc s ,6 6,4 2, 0,6 , , , 0,2 0,8 2,0 i i g a u is i g 6,6 22,0 26,4 28, 8,4 ,0 2,6 4,4 20, 86, e i e e o eum o uc s ,8 2, 4,4 , ,2 4,2 8, 24,8 2 ,6 ,0 asic c emica s 6, 4,8 ,6 24, , , 22,8 0, ,4 ,2 C emica a mi e a o uc s 8,6 4, 4, 2 , 0,8 4,4 , 4,6 , 0, asic me a s ,2 ,8 ,4 ,6 ,2 ,0 2, 2,4 0, , Mac i e y a o e equi me .e.c.. . . , 8,0 , 6,0 2 , , 22,8 0,8 6,8 , u i u e a o e ma u ac u i g o uc s ,0 8, ,6 6,8 4,2 6, 2,2 , ,8 , E ec ici y 4 , 24,8 , 4 ,6 0,0 2 2, 2, 2, 46, ,
Se ices ,8 ,2 2, , 8,6 ,8 ,4 2, ,4 2,4 G oss ecei s, s i i g 0,8 2,4 , ,2 0, 2, , ,4 2, ,0 e o eum ac i i ies, a ious se ices 2 , , ,6 2,4 48,2 4 , 0, 6,2 , , Oi i i g e c 2,2 ,4 24, ,6 6,8 2,6 , 2, , 4 ,2 i e i e a s o 8 ,2 , , 24, 2,8 , 6, ,0 ,8 ,0 a e ,4 ,8 ,2 ,4 2,4 2, , ,2 ,6 2, O e se ices 2,6 ,0 0, 8,2 ,4 2, 2, , 0, 6,0 a s o , os a e ecommu ica io . . . , , ,6 6, 4 ,6 , 2, 6, ,4 6, i a cia a usi ess se ices 28, 2 , 0, , 2, 8, 4,8 0,0 0,4 ,6 Se ices e c 0, ,8 4,2 , 4, 6, 0,8 ,8 0, 2,0 2 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . Im o s o goo s a se ices. A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
o a im o s 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 00 4 00 02 02 64 08 0
Goo s 242 22 266 4 2 6 000 6 846 6 8 8 4 24 0 64 S i s 6 2 4 04 6 2 8 8 84 2 0 2 2 40 2 04 Oi a o ms a mo u es 648 2 24 02 846 0 4 0 6 2 802 i ec im o s e a e o e o eum ac i i ies. 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 2 62 2 2 42 40 O e goo s 224 40 240 0 266 484 60 6 2 2 66 0 6 22 6 88 6 26 0 Ag icu u e, o es y a is i g 8 088 8 2 04 2 2 828 2 2 2 8 2 2 00 4 C u e oi 448 08 8 446 288 6 26 Mi i g a qua yi g 2 06 66 88 2 86 84 06 80 8 6 Ma u ac u i g o uc s 208 826 22 882 2 6 4 6 60 6 042 60 8 62 248 62 084 66 6 8 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco 4 0 66 2 428 2 6 2 66 2 8 2 2 0 406 e i es, wea i g a a e , ea e 44 6 8 8 0 4 2 sn 4 8 0 82 48 4 2 Woo o uc s 4 04 4 86 260 286 22 0 2 2 8 0 u , a e a a e o uc s 6 0 6 48 6 6 6 4 88 6 6 6 6 4 26 i i g a u is i g 86 60 8 8 0 8 42 8 6 80 e i e e o eum o uc s 4 0 8 82 2 2 6 0 2 8 2 40 2 4 0 2 2 2 422 asic c emica s 0 0 62 2 6 2 42 2 4 4 2 480 2 4 2 42 2 C emica a mi e a o uc s 2 2 2 26 6 6 8 6 6 6 260 6 0 6 4 4 6 8 4 asic me a s 22 0 2 2 24 82 64 6 6 8 6 6 6 8 6 Mac i e y a o e equi me .e.c.. . . 8 4 68 06 4 2 4 22 0 26 448 2 244 26 6 2 62 2 0 2 u i u e a o e ma u ac u i g o uc s 04 8 6 6 64 2 4 2 2 8 2 0 2 20 2 86 o com e i i e im o s 6 2 82 8 0 4 6 6 6 4 20 86 2 4 44 22 E ec ici y 4 20 02 248 6 222 268 82 40
Se ices 84 824 0 2 0 4 2 60 2 82 28 8 2 006 28 48 O e a i g cos s s i i g, e c . u ke s . . 20 88 26 0 8 26 6 6 6 44 6 6 822 6 4 6 848 6 2 6 60 O e a i g cos s oi i i g, e c u ke s . 8 2 4 0 06 4 6 6 4 46 8 e o eum ac i i ies, a ious se ices 0 0 84 2 06 446 86 00 820 4 2 a e 2 2 4 6 4 4 42 2 0 6 6 24 2 2 042 8 8 O e se ices 0 08 40 82 4 26 0 4 86 62 2 6 48 6 a s o , os a e ecommu ica io . 4 4 2 8 04 80 6 i a cia a usi ess se ices 4 28 20 2 4 4 0 088 4 6 6 8 60 6 46 Se ices e c 2 0 6 66 20 2 44 4 428 4 26 4 8 8 0 4 80 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A 4. Im o s o goo s a se ices. e ce age c a ge i o ume om e same e io i e e ious yea
1996 1997 1998 97:2 97:3 97:4 98:1 98:2 98:3 98:4
Total imports 8,0 12,0 9:1 22,3 11,8 6,3 17,6 3,8 6,8 9,3
Goods 10,8 10,3 10,3 21,7 9,8 3,2 18,3 3,4 8,2 11,9 Ships -8,3 101,5 0,9 292,1 117,6 -25,2 -1,9 -5,2 -13,6 44,0 Oil platforms and modules 796,7 -43,5 146,5 38,9 -98,5 -93,5 -65,7 Direct imports related to petroleum activities. 19,0 22,6 10,5 46,0 12,2 36,2 25,0 5,2 3,5 10,6 Other goods 9,7 8,2 9,7 14,7 6,7 8,8 18,4 6,4 9,9 5,3 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3,3 -3,0 4,4 14,5 -8,1 -2,5 33,2 -9,0 10,5 -11,9 Crude oil -10,4 17,0 23,3 46,3 65,1 -42,4 41,0 12,9 12,1 25,5 Mining and quarrying 0,6 8,6 8,4 27,7 17,5 11,2 45,5 -2,1 -2,2 -2,1 Manufacturing products 9,0 9,4 9,9 15,6 9,2 11,3 19,0 6,7 9,9 5,6 Food products, beverages and tobacco . 4,5 9,1 6,3 12,5 9,5 7,9 8,5 1,9 5,9 9,3 Textiles, wearing apparel, leather -1,3 5,7 4,8 14,2 6,9 0,9 9,9 -0,1 4,0 5,0 Wood products 8,2 18,3 7,9 28,5 19,4 18,2 25,2 2,8 11,7 -3,7 Pulp, paper and paper products 1,5 9,5 0,4 14,0 12,1 9,9 9,9 -2,9 -0,9 -3,7 Printing and publishing 12,6 10,2 7,6 21,3 11,3 8,8 16,5 6,5 1,8 6,7 Refined petroleum products -2,7 9,4 7,5 19,9 -2,9 19,3 9,6 -3,7 18,6 7,0 Basic chemicals 2,5 6,6 2,2 9,1 8,5 18,7 16,9 -0,5 -5,5 0,1 Chemical and mineral products 9,6 7,2 7,7 11,9 11,2 8,1 16,4 3,3 8,7 3,6 Basic metals 13,9 3,3 7,1 1,6 -4,8 13,9 14,0 13,0 16,0 -9,9 Machinery and other equipment n.e.c.. . . 7,8 14,7 13,8 20,5 17,8 18,6 28,8 9,2 10,1 9,9 Furniture and other manufacturing products 3,4 15,5 10,8 25,8 16,0 14,6 19,9 5,1 9,6 9,5 Non-competitive imports 48,1 -6,2 13,1 10,7 -12,7 -20,2 2,1 13,7 24,4 12,3 Electricity -45,1 -12,8 -66,0 -95,1 -69,2 -59,7 84,0 117,7 48,5
Services 0,6 17,0 6,0 23,8 16,8 16,2 15,5 4,7 3,8 1,9 Operating costs shipping, excl. bunkers . 3,3 2,4 3,3 7,2 0,7 -2,1 3,3 -1,4 2,5 9,0 Operating costs oil drilling, excl bunkers . 69,5 36,6 80,7 44,6 75,1 88,3 159,6 66,8 41,3 98,2 Petroleum activities, various services -15,0 39,0 -34,9 122,9 40,4 -13,7 38,4 -62,0 -50,4 2,4 Travel 4,9 8,6 4,0 9,3 9,1 10,0 6,5 3,0 3,9 3,0 Other services -4,4 32,1 11,1 36,2 33,3 34,2 23,6 21,4 10,0 -6,1 Transport, post and telecommunication. -1,6 -4,8 24,5 -8,4 -16,2 -6,8 18,5 41,9 37,0 4,7 Financial and business services -9,0 43,9 6,8 49,8 44,8 40,5 18,0 9,3 4,8 -2,8 Services n.e.c. 0,8 28,8 13,9 33,5 36,0 38,5 33,2 33,1 10,9 -12,4 4 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . a a ce o ayme s. Summa y. A cu e ices. Mi io k o e
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4
o a e o s 4 4 482 448 6 4 4 0 0 2 2 4 4 4 66 26 02 82 4 8 Goo s 2 686 4 6 06 044 84 0 4 8 0 8 4 6 8 48 88 0 22 4 448 Se ices 2 6 04 8 08 0 26 8 2 6 2 0 26 44 26 2 2 2 46
o a im o s 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 00 4 00 02 02 64 08 0 Goo s 242 22 266 4 2 6 000 6 846 6 8 8 4 24 0 64 Se ices 84 824 0 2 0 4 2 60 2 82 28 8 2 006 28 48
a a ce o goo s a se ices 8 4 0 2 482 6 4 8 2 0 648 8 2 22 8 4
ima y i come a a s e s om a oa . . 4 0 4 88 8 4 8 2 8 2 2 4 4 8 4 4 4 4 4 2 Com e sa io o em oyees 00 00 00 I e es 2 28 8 8 0 8 004 6 80 00 462 0 2 0 2 202 i i e s e c 2 0 2 2 6 0 4 6 0 6 04 ei es e ea i gs 6 4 0 4 060 6 2 0 4 4 0 6 Cu e a s e s 8 42 8 08 20 2 222 2 2 0 2 4 2 26 2 86 2 4 0
ima y i come a a s e s o a oa 62 8 68 64 20 8 0 66 8 2 8 6 8 8 8 00 22 208 Com e sa io o em oyees 2 24 86 26 0 4 6 4 2 I e es 22 28 28 20 8 8 28 6 2 240 8 06 8 84 0 4 i i e s e c 06 660 64 8 2 4 4 84 6 0 8 ei es e ea i gs 6 22 4 4 0 0 2 2 0 2 60 22 Cu e a s e s om ge e a go e me . 200 28 8 88 6 6 2 806 0 2 22 402 4 O e cu e a s e s 08 426 2 22 2 2 82 2 24 2 84 48 46
ima y i come a a s e s om a oa , e . 2 4 20 6 8 4 4 008 2 66 6 6 6
Cu e e e a a a ce 6 8 6 2 6 26 00 4 222 6 20 8 6 20 6 0
Ca i a a s e s, e 820 28 4 284 2 288 68 2 2 0 484
e e i g 6 8 4 8 6 02 0 8 6 2 448 6 2 2 0 6 8 0 6 6 4
e a ua io s, e 0 82 648 6 6 4 2 8 0 2 4
I c ease i o way s e asse s 60 0 2 4 2 8 6 8 2 08 4 80 6 420 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A 6. Em oye e so s y i us y. Em oyees a se em oye . 000
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4 o a 2 0.0 2 2 2.8 2 26 . 2 2 .4 2 2 . 2 22 . 2 2 8. 2 266. 2 282.8 2 264.8
Ag icu u e a u i g . .4 6.2 . 8 .4 4. 4.4 8. . .0 o es y a oggi g . . . 6. .8 . . 6.2 . .2 is i g a is a mi g 8. 8.0 . 8. .4 8. . 8. 20. 6.2 Oi a gas e ac io i c . se ices 2 .6 22.4 2 . 22. 22.8 22.6 22. 22.6 2 . 2 .8 Oi a gas e ac io 6. 6.2 6. 6.0 6.4 6.2 6. 6.4 6. 6. Se ice ac i i ies i ci e a o oi a gas e . . . 6.2 6. 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.6 . Mi i g a qua yi g 4.4 4.2 4.2 4. 4. 4. 4.0 4.2 4. 4.2 Ma u ac u i g 04.4 4.8 6.8 . . .0 .0 .2 . .4 oo o uc s, e e ages a o acco 4.6 6.0 . 6.0 6.6 . . . 4.8 4. e i es,wea i g a a e , ea e .6 . 8. . .0 . 8. 8. .0 . Woo a woo o uc s 6.4 .2 .0 . .8 . . . . 6. u , a e a a e o uc s .0 .4 . . . . 2 . . 0.8 u is i g, i i g, e o uc io 40.6 42.2 42. 42.6 42.2 4 .6 42.2 4 .4 4 . 4 . e i e e o eum o uc s .4 .6 . .6 . .6 .4 . . . asic c emica s 8. 8.6 8. 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.6 8. 8.8 8. C emica a mi e a o uc s 22.4 22.8 22. 22. 2 . 22.6 2 . 2 . 22.8 22. asic me a s 6. . .6 .6 8. .2 .0 . .8 . Mac i e y a o e equi me e c 6.6 80. 80. 80. 8 . . 80. 80.8 8 . .6 ui i g o s i s, oi a o ms a mo u s . . 2.6 .8 . .6 4.4 . 4. .6 4.8 . u i u e a o e ma u ac u i g .e c. .8 4. .2 4. 4.8 4. . . .0 4.8 E ec ici y a gas su y .6 .6 8.8 . . . 8.8 8.8 8. 8. Co s uc io 06.0 .0 22. 4. . 8. .6 22.2 2 . 2 .0 Se ices ac i i ies e c u e ge e a go e me . 24. . 88. . 66. 6 . 0.6 0.6 002. 0. W o esa e a e ai a e 02.4 . 2 . . 4.6 . .4 26. 26. 22. o e s a es au a s . 62. 64. 62. 6 .2 6 .4 60.4 6 . 66. 6 . a s o ia i e i es 0.2 0. 0. 0.4 0. 0.4 0.2 0. 0. 0. Wa e a s o 4 .8 0. . 4 . .4 0. 0.8 .2 2.2 0. Ocea a s o 4 .0 4 . 42.4 40. 42.2 4 .4 42. 42. 42. 42.2 I a wa e a cos a a s o 8. 8. 8. 8. .2 8.6 8. 8. . 8. O e a s o ac i i ies 88. .0 .8 0. .6 2. .8 2.6 4.8 6.0 os a e ecommu ica io s . . 2. 2.4 . 4 . 2.0 2.0 .4 2.0 i a cia i e me ia io 0. 4 . 48. 4 . 0.0 4 . 4 .4 4 .2 4 .0 48.0 we i g se ices .2 .2 . . . .0 .2 . . . usi ess se ices e c. 0.4 4 . 4.2 4 .8 4 .0 4 .0 48. 4. 8.4 6.0 e so a se ices 8 . 2. 8.6 .0 . .0 . . . 8.0 Ge e a go e me 666. 680.0 68 . 6 6.8 6 8.8 68 . 688.6 686.2 68 .8 6 .0 Ce a go e me 2.2 2.8 2. 2.4 2.2 . . 0.4 .8 2. Ci i ia ce a go e me 06.8 0 . 0 . 08.8 08.6 0.0 0 . 0 .6 0 . 0 .6 e e ce 4 .4 4 . 4 . 4 .6 4 .6 4 . 4 .8 42.8 42. 4 .0 oca go e me 4. 2 . .8 24. 26.6 4.4 4.8 .8 8.0 42.
Mai a o way 2 08 .2 2 48.6 2 . 2 4 .8 2 68. 2 62. 2 .4 2 20 .0 2 2 6. 2 8.4 6 A IO A ACCOU S O O WAY
a e A . Em oye e so s y i us y. Em oyees a se em oye . e ce age c a ge om e same e io i e ious yea
6 8 :2 : :4 8: 8:2 8: 8:4 o a 2. 2. 2. .2 2. 2. 2.8 2. 2.2 .
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