The Price of Oil Risk Steven D. Baker,∗ Bryan R. Routledge,y [February 10, 2017] Abstract We solve a Pareto risk-sharing problem for two agents with heterogeneous re- cursive utility over two goods: oil, and a general consumption good. Using the optimal consumption allocation, we derive a pricing kernel and the price of oil and related futures contracts. This gives us insight into the dynamics of prices and risk premia. We compute portfolios that implement the optimal consumption policies, and demonstrate that large and variable open interest is a property of optimal risk-sharing. A numerical example of our model shows that rising open interest and falling oil risk premium are an outcome of the dynamic properties of the optimal risk sharing solution. ∗ McIntire School of Commerce, University of Virginia;
[email protected]. y Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University;
[email protected]. 1 Introduction The spot price of crude oil, and commodities in general, experienced a dramatic price increase in the summer of 2008. For oil, the spot price peaked in early July 2008 at $145.31 per barrel (see Figure 1). In real-terms, this price spike exceeded both of the OPEC price shocks of 1970's and has lasted much longer than the price spike at the time of the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990. The run-up to the July 2008 price of oil begins around 2004. Buyuksahin, Haigh, Harris, Overdahl, and Robe (2011) and Hamilton and Wu (2014) identify a structural change in the behavior of oil prices around 2004.