Accommodation Within Middle Eastern Strategic Rivalries: Iranian
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Accommodation Within Middle Eastern Strategic Rivalries: Iranian Policy towards Saudi Arabia 1988 to 2005 A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the Requirements of the degree of Doctorate in Political Science Thomas James Devine Department of Political Science McGill University, Montreal August 2009 Copyright © 2009 by James Devine Library and Archives Bibliothèque et Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de l’édition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-66436-0 Our file Notre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-66436-0 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non- L’auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant à la Bibliothèque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par télécommunication ou par l’Internet, prêter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des thèses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, à des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non- support microforme, papier, électronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L’auteur conserve la propriété du droit d’auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protège cette thèse. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la thèse ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent être imprimés ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author’s permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformément à la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privée, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont été enlevés de thesis. cette thèse. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n’y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. Table of Contents Abstract Acknowledgements Introduction 1 Part 1: Theory and Methodology 27 1. Literature Review 28 2. Framework of Analysis 67 Part 2: The Initiation of Iranian Accommodation towards Saudi Arabia 103 1. The Iranian-Saudi Rivalry: 1979 to 1988 105 2. The Emergence of the “Good Neighbor Policy” (1988) 125 3. Causal Analysis 127 A. Motivating Factors 127 B. Stimulus Factors 148 C. Permissive Factors 177 The Initiation of Accommodation: Summary and Discussion 199 Part 3: The Dynamics of Iran’s Policy of Accommodation 200 toward Saudi Arabia 1. The Changing Dynamics of Iranian Accommodation 215 2. Causal Analysis 249 A. Motivating Factors 250 B. Stimulus Factors 263 C. Permissive Factors 276 The Dynamics of Accommodation: Summary and Discussion 309 Part 4: Conclusions 318 1. The Iranian-Saudi Rivalry and Iranian Policies of Accommodation: 319 1988 to 2005 2. Theoretical Significance of the Present Findings 324 3. Iranian Accommodation in Comparative Perspective: Syrian Policies of 367 Accommodation toward Israel in the 1990s 4. Future Research 387 Bibliography ii Tables and Figures Table 1: The Dependent Variables 74 Table 2: Causal Variables 91 Figure 1: The Interaction of Causal Roles 94 Table 3: Variables and Causal Roles 95 Figure 2: The Initiation of Accommodation 98 Figure 3: The Dynamics of Accommodation 102 Table 4: Causal Factors and the Initiation of Accommodation 337 Table 5: Causal Factors and the Dynamics of Accommodation 354 iii Abstract This study will focus on Iran’s policies of accommodation within its strategic rivalry with Saudi Arabia between 1988 and 2005. Although the two states continue to be rivals in the Persian Gulf, the Islamic world and within OPEC, Tehran has pursued a policy that has been intended to minimize conflict and reduce tensions. This study will attempt to explain why this policy was initiated and why it has taken particular forms. This time period covers two Iranian presidencies, the Kuwait crisis, September 11th and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. This study is significant because of the states involved. The Persian Gulf is one of the most volatile areas in the world, and Iran is in the center of events. However, this study is also important for theoretical reasons. First, the term accommodation is rarely used in a systematic way. This analysis will adopt the definition Lijphart developed in the context of Dutch consociational politics. Lijphart referred to accommodation as the “settlement of divisive issues and conflicts where only a minimal consensus exists”. This is different from most of the international relations literature, which focuses on conflict resolution or rivalry termination. This study argues that Iran’s policies toward Saudi Arabia are better understood as rivalry management and therefore involve different dynamics and require a different approach to providing a causal explanation. Second, this research is significant because it recognizes that there may be important differences between the states in rivalry dyads. States like Iran, which will be referred to as regional challengers, are involved in rivalries with the US allies, and therefore face a different set of pressures/constraints than do their adversaries. Third, this study is important because it iv examines accommodation in the developing world rather than between great powers. Therefore, it considers the impact of political and economic development on rivalry behavior. Finally, this research is significant because of the methodology being employed. The framework of analysis being used not only takes into account different levels of analysis, but also different types of causal relationship. Therefore it provides for a holist explanation that integrates different arguments from the literature. v Résumé Cette mémoire a comme focus les politiques d’accommodation que l’Iran a poursuites vers l’Arabie saoudite entre 1988 et 2005. Tandis que les deux états ont continué leur rivalité dans le Golfe Persique, le monde islamique et l’OPEP, Téhéran a tenté de minimiser les conflits et réduire les tensions. On essaye d’expliquer l’initiation de cette politique et les formes qu’elle a prises. La durée examinée ici inclut deux présidences iraniennes, la crise du Kuwait, les attaques de l’onze septembre 2001, et les guerres de l’Afghanistan et l’Irak. Cette étude est de grande portée à conséquence de l’identité des deux états impliqués. Le Golfe Persique est l’un des lieux les plus volatils du monde, et l’Iran se trouve toujours au sein des relations internationales de cette région. De plus, cet œuvre est important dans le cadre de théorie. D’abord, le mot accommodation n’est utilisé que rarement dans une manière systématique. Par contre, cette mémoire emploie la définition introduite par Lijphart dans le contexte de la politique interne néerlandaise. Selon Lijphart, l’accommodation est « la résolution des problèmes controversées et des conflits dont il n’y existe qu’un consensus minime ». Cette proposition est distinct de la plupart de la littérature sur les relations internationales, qui porte attention plutôt sur la terminaison des rivalités. Par contre, cette étude soutient que les politiques de l’Iran par rapport à l’Arabie saoudite agissaient plutôt comme la gestion d’une rivalité. De ce fait, elles avaient des dynamiques différentes de celles entendues d’habitude, et ont besoin d’une analyse différente aussi. Deuxièmement, cet œuvre accepte qu’il y ait souvent d’importantes divergences entre les deux côtés d’une rivalité internationale. Les états vi comme l’Iran, nommés ici provocateurs internationaux, sont rivaux des alliées des États- Unis, et donc rencontrent pressions et contraintes différents de celles rencontrées par leurs adversaires. En troisième lieu, cette étude se distingue des autres analyses de la rivalité en examinant l’accommodation dans le tiers monde et non entre les grandes puissances. Alors, elle considère l’impacte du développement politique et économique sur les actions des états rivaux. Finalement, cette mémoire est importante à cause de la méthode qu’elle poursuit. En utilisant plusieurs niveaux d’analyse et différents types de relation causative, elle offert une explication holiste qui intègre plusieurs opinions de la littérature. vii Acknowledgements This project has been a long time in the making, and there are many people who need to be thanked. At the top of the list, of course, is Paul Noble, who has been more than a mere advisor. Many of the ideas expressed in this thesis developed out of our conversations and his help with my fieldwork was invaluable. Most importantly, without his moral support and patience, I would not have made it through graduate school and this thesis would never have been written. I also owe a debt of gratitude to Rex Brynen, whose energy and understanding of the Middle East has been an inspiration. I must also thank McGill’s Department of Political Science as well as the Inter-University Consortium for Arab and Middle East Studies (ICAMES). Over the years, and many changes in personnel, the department, and ICAMES have provided me with an academic home. In particular, Mark Brawley and T.V. Paul have been a great help, individually and through the Université de Montréal– McGill Joint Research Group in International Security Studies (REGIS), which has provided me with timely financial support. Other members of the faculty, such as Phil Oxhorn, Michael Brecher, Hudson Meadwell and Juliet Johnson have also been generous with their support and encouragement. Just as importantly, I must also thank the support staff in the department, Helen Wilicka in particular. Without their help, nothing would ever have gotten done. There are several people and institutions that must be acknowledged for their help with my research in Iran.