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General Government Fiscal Plan 2022-2025

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General Government Fiscal Plan 2022-2025 MINISTRY OF FINANCE VN/24238/2020 12 May 2021 Distribution as listed GENERAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL PLAN 2022–2025 The General Government Fiscal Plan also includes Finland’s Stability Programme, and it meets the EU’s requirement for a medium-term fiscal plan. In accordance with Article 4 of Regulation 473/2013, the General Government Fiscal Plan is based on independent macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts produced by the Economics Department of the Ministry of Finance. Specific information related to the Stability Programme is presented in Appendix 6. The Government has today, following preparatory consideration of the matter in the Ministerial Finance Committee and pursuant to section 2 of the Decree on the General Government Fiscal Plan (120/2014), section 1 of the Budget Decree (1243/1992) and the Government’s decision issued on 24 April 2003 on the principles of formulating central government spending limits proposals, budget proposals and operating and financial plans, issued the following General Government Fiscal Plan and the Decision on Central Government Spending Limits included within it: 1. Economic challenges and the economic policy line The aim of the economic policy of Prime Minister Marin’s Government Programme is to increase wellbeing and prosperity. This means ecologically and socially sustainable economic growth, high employment and sustainable public finances. In the Government Programme, the Government set as its key economic policy objectives: — given normal global and related domestic economic circumstances, the employment rate will be raised to 75% and the number of people in employment will increase by a minimum of 60,000 by the end of 2023 — given normal global economic circumstances, Finland’s general government finances will be in balance in 2023 — the Government’s decisions will decrease inequality and narrow the income gaps — the Government’s decisions will put Finland on a path towards achieving carbonneutrality by 2035. The coronavirus crisis has created a need to specify further the objectives of the Government Programme related to general government finances and employment development. In its economic sustainability roadmap, the Government set as objectives: 1 — to achieve a reversal in the upward trend of the public debt ratio in the mid-2020s — to raise the employment rate to 75% in the middle of decade and through the Government’s employment measures to increase the number of people in employment by 80,000 by the end of the decade. General government finances have been weakened over the last decade by population ageing and a slowdown in economic growth. Without measures to strengthen general government finances, the debt burden will continue to grow even after the coronavirus crisis. General government expenditure will be increased by growth in the number of older people, which will increase long-term care expenditure in particular, but also spending on pensions and health. At the same time, the contraction of the working age population will adversely impact economic growth potential and the funding base of general government finances. For these reasons, there is a long-term sustainability gap in general government finances, which the Ministry of Finance estimates to be approximately 3% in ratio to GDP, i.e. approximately EUR 8 billion at the 2025 level. Economic sustainability roadmap In its economic sustainability roadmap, the Government has decided on measures to strengthen the sustainability of general government finances. In the roadmap, the Government also further specified further objectives set in the Government Programme. The Government aims to achieve a reversal in the upward trend in the debt ratio in the middle of the decade. The debt ratio will turn to downward thend if the general government finances strengthens by approximately EUR 2–2.5 billion in net terms. The Government is also committed to a long-term approach in its work to raise the employment rate through decisions that will bring an estimated 80,000 new jobs by the end of the decade. The objective is that the employment rate will be 75% in the middle of the decade and at a good Nordic level by the end of the decade. The roadmap identifies the following sets of measures to strengthen the sustainability of general government finances: — increasing employment and reducing unemployment — reinforcing the conditions for economic growth — increasing public sector productivity, and measures to support cost-effectiveness — reform of health and social services In the economic sustainability roadmap, the Government has assessed the potential to strengthen general government finances with regard to each set of measures and will make decisions on the measures separately. If the structural reforms and growth-boosting reforms being prepared are not sufficient to strengthen general government finances as intended, the Government is committed to taking new measures or also resorting to measures that have a rapid impact on general government revenue and expenditure. Employment The Government’s fiscal and growth policies aim for a situation in which insufficient demand for labour does not restrict growth in employment. Therefore, not only an active fiscal policy correctly scaled to the macroeconomic situation is required, but also reforms that strengthen the supply of labour. 2 To achieve the employment target, the Government decided in its mid-term policy review on measures aimed at achieving 40,000–44,500 new jobs. The most significant measures include the transfer of employment and business services to the municipalities as well as a funding model created in connection with the transfer, which will incentivise municipalities to develop their activities to promote employment, the extension of the work ability programme, the reform of the wage subsidy and the reform of lifelong learning. According to a preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance, the measures will strengthen general government finances by approximately EUR 150 million. In addition, decisions on employment measures that will strengthen general government finances by EUR 110 million will be made before the end of the parliamentary term. The Government has already made decisions on structural measures to boost employment, which the Ministry of Finance estimates will have a combined impact of approximately 31,000–33,000 new jobs by 2029. The most significant single measures are the extension of compulsory education, abolishing additional days in unemployment security, the Nordic employment service model, lowering early childhood education fees, local government pilots on employment, the wage subsidy reform and measures to boost the employment of people with partial work ability. Estimated at the level of 2029, the Ministry of Finance estimates that the employment measures would strengthen general government finances by approximately EUR 300 million, also taking into account the costs of the measures. Conditions for economic growth The Government has decided to strengthen the conditions for economic growth through permanent and temporary economic, fiscal, business and growth policy measures outlined in the Government Programme (permanent additional expenditure and one-off future-oriented investments). In addition, temporary measures have been decided on to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus situation. By supporting aggregate demand in the economy, increased public spending has prevented output from contracting, businesses from going bankrupt, employment from declining, skills and competence from being lost, and production capacity from being destroyed. In this way, the Government has sought to prevent a blow to the economy that would undermine long-term economic growth potential. According to a macroeconomic assessment, the Government’s economic policy for 2020–2021 will maintain employment for several tens of thousands of people. The impact of temporary measures on economic output and employment will decline as the measures mature. Part of the impact will be very long-term. Sustained strengthening of general government finances through measures supporting economic growth will require a better economic performance that at present. The Government has prepared a package of measures to support growth. The measures will secure long-term R&D funding, strengthen Finland as an investment environment, increase the investment capacity of companies and strengthen domestic ownership, and ensure the supply of skilled labour by accelerating work-based immigration. The Government’s objective is to raise Finland’s R&D expenditure to 4% in ratio to GDP by 2030 and to increase work-based immigration cumulatively by at least 50,000 people by 2030. Increasing public R&D expenditure to meet the R&D expenditure target would increase public debt and increase the need to strengthen general government finances to around EUR 4 billion, as required by the target to achieve a reversal in the upward trend in the debt ratio. A foundation for growth measures is created by the EU’s one-off recovery package (Next Generation EU) and particularly its Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), funding from which will be used to implement the Sustainable Growth Programme for Finland. Through the Sustainable Growth Programme for Finland, the Government will support growth that is ecologically, socially and economically sustainable in line with the aims of the Government Programme. Finland’s final RRF plan will be submitted to the European Commission in May 2021. The goal is to boost competitiveness, 3
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