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3 Gorges Report 26-5B Thurs 8.50.Indd Translation of A study on the relationship between water levels and seismic activity in the Three Gorges reservoir By Dai Miao, Yao Yunsheng, Chen Junhua, Qin Xiaojun, Wang Qiuliang Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration¹, Wuhan Originally Published in Chinese² in Renmin Changjiang³ Journal of the Changjiang Water Resources Commission Volume 41, No. 17 September 2010 June 2011 TRANSLATION BY PROBE INTERNATIONAL, ENGLISH EDITOR: PATRICIA ADAMS Abstract This paper reviews the seismic activity in the Three Gorges reservoir area since inundation began in June 2003, it describes features about the permeability structure of major faults, and it discusses in detail the relationship between changes in water levels and seismic activity. The statistical results of seismic activity in the Three Gorges reservoir area show: earthquakes were more likely to be triggered as the water level changed sharply; as the water level rose, the epicenters of earthquakes concentrated along the reservoir shore of the Yangtze River and its major tributaries; seismic activity in the reservoir area was mainly affected by the rise and fall of the reservoir rather than by changes in the geological structure of the area. In addition, because of differences in the perme- ability structures of different segments of the reservoir area, with the rise of the water level, there were more earthquakes greater than M2.0 in the Gaoqiao Fault (on the western end of the dam site area) in the early stage of filling, and more seismic activity in the Xiannushan and Jiu- The M4.1 earthquake wanxi faults (on the eastern side of the dam site area) in the later stage of which occurred in Zigui filling. along the Xiannushan Key words: reservoir earthquakes; permeability structure; dam water Fault on November 22, level; the Three Gorges reservoir area 2008 was a reservoir- induced earthquake, 1 Introduction and the result of the combined effect of the Water plays an integral role in seismic activity in reservoirs. As early as reservoir water load- the 1970s, Howells and Bell discussed how reservoir water affects rocks in a reservoir area and, by using a one-dimensional homogeneous diffu- ing and reservoir water sion model and a two-dimensional non-homogeneous diffusion model penetration. respectively, how it plays an important role in earthquake preparation and occurrence through penetration. In 1983, as a result of their study of features of the process of seismic activity in combination with charac- teristics of the reservoir fault permeability structure in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir in China, Zang Shaoxian et al proposed that the infiltration of reservoir water is the main cause of earthquakes in a reservoir area. In 2006, through statistical studies of cases of reservoir earthquakes at home and abroad, Wang Rushu and others suggested that the tim- ing of the main shock is closely related to the filling of the reservoir, that there is a good correlation between seismic activity and changes in water levels in the early stage of filling, and that most relatively strong earthquakes occur in periods when water levels are high, when they are falling, or when they are low in the first and second stages of the filling of the reservoir. In 2009, based on seismic and geological data, and a site investigation in the Three Gorges reservoir area, Che Yongtai et al con- cluded that the M4.1 earthquake which occurred in Zigui along the Xian- nushan Fault on November 22, 2008 was a reservoir-induced earthquake, and the result of the combined effect of the reservoir water loading and reservoir water penetration. 2 This paper deals with the relationship between water levels in the Three Gorges reservoir and seismic activity. It is based on recent data provided by seismic monitors around the reservoir and in Hubei Province. The purpose is to determine the cause of seismic activity for different sections of the river during the different stages of reservoir impoundment. 2 An overview of the process in which water levels were al- tered and seismic activity occurred in the reservoir area From June 1, 2003, when the Three Gorges reservoir began its first stage of impoundment up to the 135 metre mark above sea level, seismic activity in- creased significantly as the water level rose, much more than before inunda- tion began. The data shows that seismic activity was concentrated along the banks of the Xiangxi River in Zigui County (30 km upstream of the dam), the banks of the Shenlongxi River in Badong County (78 km upstream of the dam), and in a 5 km wide area on both the north and south banks of the Xietan section of the Yangtze River in Zigui County (about 43 km upstream of the dam). When the Three Gorges Then, beginning on September 20, 2006, during the initial period of the reservoir began its second stage of the reservoir’s impoundment to 156 metres, an upsurge of first stage of impound- microseismic activity occurred in Dongrangkou in Badong County, and in Xietan Town, Quyuan Town and Luoquanhuang Village in Zigui County. ment up to the 135 The cause was a rapidly rising water level brought about by heavy rainfall metre mark above sea upstream. Throughout the period of filling to 156 metres (including the level, seismic activity lowering of water levels in April 2007 and the reservoir’s re-impounding in increased significantly September 2007), the region affected by seismic activity was slightly larger than the area impacted by the 2003 filling of the reservoir to 135 metres. as the water level rose, But the region affected by this seismic activity, although slightly larger, was much more than before still concentrated within a 5 km wide area (on both banks) of the river in the inundation began. main channel and tributaries of the Yangtze. This slightly larger area made up 43.9% of the total area in which seismic activity was recorded, which included the area from the dam site to the middle section of the entire reser- voir (see Table 1). On September 28, 2008, a trial filling of the reservoir to 175 metres began. On November 10, 2008, the reservoir reached 172.80 metres, the highest water level for this trial. Water levels rose rapidly during this trial period: the daily average rose as high as 2.93 metres, followed by a relatively slower drop in the water level. The second trial filling of the reservoir to 175 metres began on September 15, 2009 and reached 171.43 metres on November 24, 2009. The process was similar to that of the first trial: the water level rose rapidly but the drawdown occurred relatively more slowly (see Figure 1). 3 Table 1 Distribution of earthquakes in different periods of filling the Three Gorges reservoir Period* Distance of Number of earthquakes, % of earthquake by magnitude Earth- epicenter quakes from the res- ervoir shore (km) 0.0-0.9 1.0-1.9 2.0-2.9 >3.0 1) Before im- 0-5 6 11 1 0 17.5 poundment 5-15 18 17 1 1 35.9 15-30 16 21 3 1 39.8 2) Impound- 0-5 239 26 3 0 27.1 ment to 135 5-15 351 45 9 0 40.9 During this period of metres 15-30 150 40 1 0 19.3 time - in which two at- tempts were made to 3) Impound- 0-5 578 97 10 0 43.9 raise the reservoir to ment to 156 5-15 514 98 6 0 39.6 metres 15-30 184 48 3 0 15.1 175 metres above sea level - the frequency 4) Trials to 0-5 428 63 12 1 48.2 of this seismic activity impound to 5-15 359 66 9 0 41.5 was significantly higher 175 metres 15-30 78 20 0 0 9.3 than before inundation began. The earthquakes * Dates of monitoring periods occurred mainly on 1) Before impoundment: January 1, 2000 - May 31, 2003 both sides of the middle 2) Impoundment to 135 metres: June 1, 2003 - September 20, 2006 3) Impoundment to 156 metres: September 20, 2006 - September 27, 2008 of the Badong Gaoqiao 4) Trials to impound to 175 metres: September 28, 2008 - December 31, Fault, the north sec- 2009 tion of the Xiannushan Fault, and the west side During this period of time - in which two attempts were made to raise the reservoir to 175 metres above sea level in 2008 and 2009 respectively of the Jiuwanxi Fault. - 22 earthquakes above M2.0 were recorded. The strongest was recorded as M4.1. The frequency of this seismic activity was significantly higher than before inundation began (i.e. in the January 1, 2000 to May 31, 2003 period), during the first stage of impoundment to 135 metres, and the sec- ond stage when the reservoir was filled to 156 metres above sea level. The earthquakes occurred mainly on both sides of the middle of the Badong- Gaoqiao Fault, the north section of the Xiannushan Fault, and the west side of the Jiuwanxi Fault. Meanwhile, both north and south sections of the Badong-Gaoqiao Fault, the south section of the Xiannushan Fault, and the Tianyangping Fault areas were relatively quiet, with no earthquakes regis- tering more than M2.0. 3 The study of the relationship between water levels and seis- mic activity 4 3.1 Fault permeability structure and RIS Based on the previous studies, different permeability structures in the faults would have different influences on reservoir-induced earthquakes after the reservoir is filled. The permeability structures of faults include four types: partially-impermeable, partially-conductive, compound, and diffuse-con- ductive. It’s unlikely that the first two will cause RIS while it is likely that the last two will cause RIS.
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