UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Intra-Ethnic Electoral Violence in War-Torn, Divided Societies: The Case of Sri Lanka A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Seema Kiran Shah 2012 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Intra-Ethnic Electoral Violence in War-Torn, Divided Societies: The Case of Sri Lanka by Seema Kiran Shah Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2012 Professor Edmond Keller, Chair What form does electoral violence take in war-torn divided societies, and what explains the variation in this type of violence? Using statistical and historical analyses, this study examines patterns of election-related violence in the war-torn, ethnically divided context of Sri Lanka. This study shows that electoral violence in Sri Lanka is more often the result of inter- party and intra-ethnic competition than it is the result of inter-ethnic rivalries. Since most Sri Lankan districts are ethnically homogeneous and because the Sinhalese constitute the vast majority of the population, most electoral competition occurs between rival Sinhalese parties. Specifically, this dissertation demonstrates the significance of inter-party competition within one ethnic group by showing that there was generally more violence in areas where the vote differences between the top two contenders were smallest, even when both were from the same ethnic group. This holds when comparing violence with the vote difference from the previous ii election cycle as well. When vote differences were small in the previous election, there was more violence in the following election in that district. In order to illustrate the intra-ethnic nature of much of the violence, I describe the planned, systematic and organized nature of the violence, which indicates that violence was not a spontaneous outburst of inter-ethnic animosity. Instead, it was planned – sometimes by politicians themselves – in order to harm rivals’ chances of victory. In addition, this analysis shows that there was more violence in heavily Sinhalese and heavily Tamil districts than in more mixed ones. This pattern indicates that most electoral competition at the district level was likely occurring within ethnic communities, between parties representing the same ethnic groups. In addition, most violence took place between supporters of the two main Sinhalese parties, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the United National Party (UNP). In terms of accusations, both Sinhalese and Tamil parties accused their co-ethnic parties of much more violence than they did parties of the other ethnicities, suggesting that much more violence took place within rather than between these groups. iii The dissertation of Seema Kiran Shah is approved. Barbara Geddes Raymond Rocco Akhil Gupta Edmond Keller, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2012 iv To my Sadruddin, for showing me, time and again, that even the most incredible dreams can and do come true. & To my Nani, whose model of hard work, courage and faith has always shown me the way forward. I pray for her spirit to walk beside me ever more. v Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. viii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ ix Vita ................................................................................................................................................ xi Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1 References .......................................................................................................18 Chapter 2: Sri Lankan Political History ....................................................................................21 Chapter 2 References .......................................................................................................45 Chapter 3: The Centralization of Power, Deteriorating Political Institutions and the Normality of Political Violence in Sri Lanka ...........................................................................47 Chapter 3 References .......................................................................................................76 Chapter 4: Results from the Field: Inter-Party Competition and Intra-Ethnic Election Violence in Sri Lanka .................................................................................................................78 Chapter 4 References .....................................................................................................111 Chapter 5: Election Violence in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka .................................................112 Chapter 5 References .....................................................................................................141 Chapter 6: Conclusion and Implications for Further Research ............................................143 Chapter 6 References .....................................................................................................161 vi List of Tables Table 1.1: The Effects of the Control Variables on Average Violence ...................................10 Table 2.1: Sri Lanka’s Ethnic Population .................................................................................22 Table 4.1: Ethnic Composition of Districts, 2001......................................................................82 Table 4.2: Murders and Attempted Murders in the Pre-Election Period .............................87 Table 4.3: Violence and Vote Differences (in the same year) Coefficients .............................90 Table 4.4: Violence and Vote Differences (in different years) Coefficients ............................90 Table 4.5: Violence and Change in Vote Differences Coefficients ..........................................90 Table 4.6: Violence and Party Turnover Coefficients ..............................................................92 Table 4.7: Effect of Percent Sinhaelese on Violence Per District ............................................98 Table 4.8: The Effect of Percent Tamil on Violence Per District ..........................................100 Table 4.9: The Effect of Percent Muslim on Violence Per District .......................................102 Table 4.10: Rates of Accusations in the Districts with Highest Sinhalese and Tamil Concentrations ...........................................................................................................................107 Table 4.11: Comparative Effects of Ethnicity on Violence ....................................................109 Table 5.1: Eastern Ethnic Distribution and Parliamentary Seat Allocation ........................136 Table 5.2: Number of Ethnic Parties Per Eastern District ....................................................136 vii List of Figures Figure 4.1: Percent of Largest Ethnic Group in Sri Lanka’s Electoral Districts ..................81 Figure 4.2: Incumbents and Opposition Share of Violence .....................................................95 Figure 4.3: Violence 2004 Vs. Percent Sinhalese Per District ..................................................98 Figure 4.4: Parties Accused of Violence ...................................................................................104 Figure 4.5: Parties’ Accusations of Violence in the Pre-Election Period ..............................105 viii Acknowledgments I would like to express my deepest thanks to my doctoral committee, Professors Edmond Keller, Barbara Geddes, Raymond Rocco and Akhil Gupta, for their guidance, encouragement and support. My heartfelt gratitude goes to Dr. Keller, my academic advisor and committee chair, who has pushed me to strive high from the very beginning. Dr. Keller has patiently guided me through many brainstorms, serving as my mentor and offering me invaluable support through the many difficulties in a doctoral program. For all his efforts and dedication to my project, I will be forever grateful. I would also like to express special appreciation to Dr. Geddes, whose class on research design revolutionized my academic trajectory at UCLA. Dr. Geddes’s thorough commentary on multiple drafts of each dissertation chapter has been helpful beyond measure, allowing me in many cases to see things in an entirely new light. I also thank her for her personal guidance, warmth and encouragement over the years. I thank the American Philosophical Society and the UCLA Graduate Division for their generous assistance with my fieldwork and dissertation. Several people offered me invaluable assistance with research in Sri Lanka. For this, I thank Tissa Jayatilake, Iromi Perera, and Rohan Edrisinha. I could not have made it through the doctoral program without the support of several cherished friends. I thank Saba and John for literally changing my life in Los Angeles. Saba’s ever ready smile, enduring support and love over these past four years will be forever remembered, and John’s patience, wisdom and position as my comrade-in-arms made the path less lonely. I must also thank Rahel for her love and friendship and for acting as my guide as I