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Climate Change and Locust Outbreak in East Africa

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Climate Change and Locust Outbreak in East Africa correspondence Climate change and locust outbreak in East Africa To the Editor – From the end of 2019 to a b early 2020, a desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) outbreak across several East African countries posed a serious risk to food security and livelihoods. A second wave is currently active and threatening the region’s agropastoral areas. Although desert locusts have been here since biblical times, recent intense outbreaks can be linked to anthropogenic climate change and the increased frequency of extreme weather events1–3. Current locust plagues are further exasperated by local economic and political limitations, which facilitate locust spread and place particular pressure on already vulnerable communities. In May 2018, an unusually powerful tropical cyclone (Mekunu) made landfall over the Arabian Peninsula. Tropical 5 km cyclones usually weaken upon reaching N land, but Mekunu crossed over Oman, causing heavy rainfall that created desert Fig. 1 | Desert lakes in the ‘Empty Quarter’. Pools of water form in Rub’ al-Khali desert, also known as lakes over the ‘Empty Quarter’ in Saudi the ‘Empty Quarter’, due to intense rainfall under tropical cyclone Mekunu. a, Photograph taken on Arabia (Fig. 1). The warm, sandy and wet 13 May 2018 shows normal dry conditions. b, Photograph taken on 29 May 2018 shows the ‘desert lakes’ soil was the perfect environment for desert that facilitate locust breeding and survival. NASA Earth Observatory images by L. Dauphin using US locusts to hatch from eggs, develop and Geological Survey data. breed4. The dry conditions in this region would normally kill these breeds, but another tropical cyclone (Luban) followed in October 2018, providing a lifeline for were not made available in time to allow a record-breaking eight tropical cyclones the continuation of the first outbreak2. effective control at the local level. developed over the Indian Ocean and The outbreak spread to Yemen, where it Attribution of a single event to climate made landfall over different locations continued uncontrolled due to political change is difficult. However, climatic in Asia and East Africa. In March to instability and lack of coherent government changes such as increases in temperature April 2019, Mozambique was impacted by response2,5. By the end of 2019, the winds and rainfall over desert areas, and the strong cyclones Kenneth and Idai, the strongest of yet another tropical cyclone, Pawan, winds associated with tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones on record, surpassing facilitated the migration of desert locusts to provide a new environment for pest the severity of the season of February to East Africa. A lack of preparedness, chronic breeding, development and migration. March 2000 in which the country was political instability and limited capacity This suggests that global warming played a also devastated by two cyclones (Eline made the invasion the worst in a quarter role in creating the conditions required for and Hudah). of a century for most countries, and the the development, outbreak and survival of Moreover, from October to December worst in 70 years for Kenya. the locusts5. 2019, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Controlling such outbreaks requires a About 90% of anthropogenic heat experienced one of its strongest positive swift and coordinated response. However, is absorbed by the oceans6,7, and the phases, causing one of the wettest rainy the Desert Locust Control Organization for western part of the Indian Ocean is the seasons in East Africa. Djibouti City Eastern Africa — the regional organization fastest-warming in the tropical Ocean received 336 mm of rainfall in four days, responsible — has been neglected and system, with a summer average increase of equivalent to two normal years’ worth. under-resourced by member countries1. 1.2 °C (ref. 8). This warming has increased Such events are likely to increase in the The limited financial capacity of some of the frequency and intensity of extreme future; in a 1.5 °C warmer climate, extreme the affected countries and the lockdown due climate events in neighbouring regions9–11. positive IODs are expected to occur to the coronavirus pandemic have further The strongest cyclones on record to affect twice as often12. The increased cyclone hampered control efforts. Additionally, the Arabian Peninsula occurred in the frequency and more extreme climate armed conflict in Somalia rendered some past 15 years (Gonu, 2007; Phet, 2010; and variability could increase the likelihood of the locust breeding areas inaccessible. Mekunu, 2018). The strongest recorded of pest outbreaks and spread. This In many cases, the required pesticides, cyclone to hit Somalia, Sagar, occurred adds compromised food security to the protective gear and locust control experts just a few weeks before Mekunu. In 2019, consequences of the storms themselves. 584 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 10 | JULY 2020 | 584–585 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange correspondence Desert locusts feed on a range of green vulnerability of the socio-economic References 1. Nature 579, 330 (2020). vegetation (for example, crops, grass, activities to these factors, it is crucial for 2. Kennedy, M. Why are swarms of locusts wreaking havoc in East shrubs and trees), threatening human each government in the region to put Africa? NPR https://n.pr/2zkJciW and animal food security. The first-wave in place a multi-hazard early warning 3. Nat. Food 1, 143 (2020). 4. Weather and Desert Locusts Report No. 1175 (World of infestations at the end of 2019 destroyed system. Such a system should include Meteorological Organization and Food and Agriculture 70,000 ha of farmland in Somalia and robust surveillance and forecasting Organization of the United Nations, 2016); https://bit.ly/30IEpTN 2 Ethiopia, and 2,400 km (ref. ) of pasture methods, dissemination channels and 5. Meynard, C. N., Lecoq, M., Chapuis, P.-M. & Piou, C. Glob. land in Kenya1. A recent assessment response mechanisms to avert the potential Change Biol. (in the press). 6. Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison, J. & Heimbach, P. in Ethiopia estimated that between impacts of extreme events. Understandably, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1126–1131 (2019). December 2019 and March 2020, these countries have limited financial 7. Barnett, T. P. et al. Science 309, 284–287 (2005). locusts damaged 114,000, 41,000 and resources, but spending on an efficient 8. Roxy, M. K., Ritika, K., Terray, P. & Masson, S. J. Clim. 27, 8501–8509 (2014). 36,000 ha of Sorghum, maize and early warning system is an investment 9. Roxy, M. K. et al. Nat. Commun. 8, 708 (2017). 13 wheat, respectively . of guaranteed returns. As part of climate 10. Murakami, H., Vecchi, G. A. & Underwood, S. Nat. Clim. Change The recent locust outbreaks and the justice, the developed countries have 7, 885–889 (2017). role of Indian Ocean warming show a moral obligation to support those 11. Vitart, F., Anderson, D. & Stockdale, T. J. Clim. 16, 3932–3945 (2003). that the impact of climate change is not countries that do not have the resources 12. Cai, W. et al. Nat. Commun. 9, 1419 (2018). merely the consequences of changes in for such investment. ❐ 13. Impact of Desert Locust Infestation on Household Livelihoods and mean temperature, but also of increases Food Security in Ethiopia (FAO, 2020); https://bit.ly/2MKVp3z in extreme and unprecedented events. Abubakr A. M. Salih ✉ , Marta Baraibar, Such extremes are exacerbated further Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi and Acknowledgements Guleid Artan A.A.M.S. is supported by the Climate and Development in a butterfly effect by non-climate Africa Special Fund of the African Development Bank factors such as political instability, armed Te Intergovernmental Authority on Development through the Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster conflicts, poor governance, weak early Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Risk Reduction in Africa (SAWIDREA) project. K.K.M. warning systems and limited financial Nairobi, Kenya. is funded by the European Union through GMES and resources, hurting the most vulnerable ✉e-mail: [email protected] Africa project. M.B. is supported by NORCAP, a global provider of expertize to the humanitarian, development and communities. peace-building sectors operated by the Norwegian Refugee In this context of a changing climate, Published online: 30 June 2020 Council (NRC). G. A. is supported by the Intergovernmental increased climate variability and the https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0835-8 Authority on Development (IGAD). nature communications Publishing high-quality Submit your research and beneft from a fast decision process, full open access, CC BY open access research from licensing as standard, the #3 most-cited* multidisciplinary open access journal in the across all areas of the world and 3 million monthly page views on journal site. natural sciences. *Clarivate Analytics, 2019 nature.com/ncomms @NatureComms @NatureCommunications A81661 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 10 | JULY 2020 | 584–585 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 585.
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