Report of Monitoring and Assessment of Desert Locust in Africa And

Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Report of Monitoring and Assessment of

Desert Locust in Africa and Asia

2021 (No. 1-22)

Vegetation Remote Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Team

RResearch Team

No. 22 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia

(July) ………………………..…………….………………………………………………..1

No. 21 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Ethiopia (June) …………………………………….…….…………………………………………..6 No. 20 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia (June) …………………………………….……………………………………………..10 No. 19 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Ethiopia (May) …………………………………….……………………………………………..15 No. 18 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia (April) …………………………………….……………………………………………..20

No. 17 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Kenya

(March) ………………………………….……………………………………………....26

No. 16 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Ethiopia

(February) …………………………………….………………………………………..…32

No. 15 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Kenya

(January) …………………………………….……………………………………………38

No. 14 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia

(December) ………………………………………………………………………………44

No. 13 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Ethiopia

(November) ………………………………………………………………………………49

No. 12 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia and Yemen

(October) …………………………………………………………………………………54

No. 11 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Ethiopia and Kenya (September) ………………………………………………………………………………60 No. 10 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in three Southwest Asia countries (August) ………………………………………………………………………………..…66 No. 9 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in six Asian and African countries (July)………………………………………………………………………………………74

No. 8 Desert Locust monitoring in Asia and Africa and loss assessment in Yemen

(June)…...... ….88

No. 7 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Kenya and Ethiopia (Late May)….…...... 95

No. 6 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Pakistan and Somalia (Early

May)…...... 101

No. 5 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Yemen and Ethiopia (Mid

April)…...... 107

No. 4 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia and Pakistan (Early

April)...... 115

No. 3 Assessment of Desert Locust migration and loss in Kenya and Ethiopia (Late

March)...... 122

No. 2 Assessment of Desert Locust migration and loss in Asia and Africa (Early

March)...... 129

No. 1 Desert Locust invasion in Africa and Asia (February)...... 137

July 2021

No.8 Total: 22

GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series cropland, 31.4 thousand hectares of grassland in US, Sentinel series in EU), and and 574.2 thousand hectares of shrub. It is self-developed models and algorithms for expected that from July to September, affected

Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the by the summer rainfall, the locusts in Somalia research team constructed the ‘Vegetation will continue to mature and multiply. Until then, pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting the number of locusts in the territory will system’, which could regularly release increase significantly, and the locusts are thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. expected to spread to Ethiopia and Yemen. The

This report focuses on the updates of next three months will be important growing desert locust monitoring and loss assessment and harvesting seasons in Somalia. It is still in Somalia from April to June 2021. The results necessary to pay close attention to the showed that from April to June 2021, desert dynamics of desert locusts in Somalia to locusts in Somalia were mainly distributed in prevent agricultural and pasture production the north. Compared with March, the newly losses. The research results are as follows. damaged vegetation was 606.3 thousand hectares, including 0.7 thousand hectares of

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Desert Locust Monitoring year. The monitoring results showed that desert and Loss Assessment in locusts in Somalia harmed about 587.8

Somalia thousand hectares of vegetation area in June, In early and mid-April 2021, affected by with an increase of 185.7 thousand hectares ground control operations, the number of (including 0.1 thousand hectares of cropland, locusts in Somalia has decreased significantly; 6.1 thousand hectares of grassland, and 179.5 In late April 2021, affected by rainfall, locusts in thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 3). northern Somalia continued to lay eggs and The research results show that, compared reproduce. The monitoring results showed that, with March 2021, desert locusts in Somalia in April, desert locusts in Somalia harmed about newly harmed about a total of 606.3 thousand 414.6 thousand hectares of vegetation area, hectares of vegetation area from April to June, with an increase of 181.6 thousand hectares including 0.7 thousand hectares of cropland, compared to March (including 0.1 thousand 31.4 thousand hectares of grassland, and hectares of cropland, 8.6 thousand hectares of 574.2 thousand hectares of shrub, accounting grassland, and 172.9 thousand hectares of for 0.7%, 0.8% and 1.3% of the total cropland, shrub) (Figure 1). In early May 2021, due to the grassland, and shrub in Somalia, respectively. continuous impact of rainfall, the locusts in The affected areas were mainly located in Somalia gradually matured and laid eggs; in northern Somalia. The north and south of mid-to-late May 2021, affected by ground Togdheer was the worst affected area, with an control actions, the number of locusts affected area of 262.8 thousand hectares, decreased. The monitoring results showed that followed by the south of Woqooyi Galbeed, with desert locusts in Somalia harmed about 561.3 an affected area of 130.5 thousand hectares. thousand hectares in May, with an increase of The north of Sanaag had an affected area of 239.0 thousand hectares (including 0.5 83.9 thousand hectares, the northern part of thousand hectares of cropland, 16.7 thousand Sool had an affected area of 53.6 thousand hectares of grassland and 221.8 thousand hectares, and the south of Awdal had an hectares of shrub) (Figure 2). In June, thanks to affected area of 25.0 thousand hectares. The the progress of ground control operations, the affected areas of Mudug, Bari, Shabeellaha number of Somali locusts decreased Dhexe, Nugaal were relatively small, with significantly compared to the same period last affected areas of 18.4, 14.3, 12.2, and 0.56

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Comprehensive analysis shows that, as coincide with the critical growing and ground control operations continue, the size harvesting seasons for food crops in Somalia. and number of desert locust swarms in Somalia We still need to pay close attention to the in July have significantly decreased compared situation of desert locusts in Somalia. If not to the same period of last year. Forecasts show adequately controlled, locusts will bring a major that from July to September, affected by rainfall, threat to agricultural and pasture production. locusts in northern Somalia will continue to Ground surveys and control actions are mature, reproduce and lay eggs, which would required to safeguard agricultural and pasture lead to a further increase in the number of production.

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (April 2021)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (May 2021)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (June 2021)

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Aerospace Information Research Institute support program for high-level personnel Chinese Academy of Sciences recruitment (Wenjiang Huang), and Youth No.9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2017085). Beijing 100094, P.R.China. Contact us Email: [email protected] http://www.rscrop.com/ Corresponding author http://www.rscropmap.com Professor Wenjiang Huang Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-10-82178178 FAX: +86-10-82178177

Main contributors Chinese English This report was released by Professor Wenjiang The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s Forecasting system are available under: research team in Aerospace Information Research http://www.rscropmap.com/ Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Huifang Wang, Hong Chang, Yun Disclaimer Geng, Chao Ruan, Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Liu, Naichen Xing, Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Hansu Zhang, Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Chao Ding, Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xiangmei Qin, Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, analyses and conclusions in the report do not Zhuoqing Hao, Kang Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng report and indicate the source. However, any Wang, Wei Feng, Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Muyi Huang, Jing Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui the report do not represent the views of the Team. Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, The data published in this report are for reference Furan Song, Qingsong Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang only. The Team does not bear any legal Liu, Yunli Han, Yuzhen Zou, Lu Li. responsibility arising from the use of the report. Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Jingquan Zhu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing National Natural Science Foundation of China Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Technology (Z191100001119089), National special Jadu Dash.

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June 2021

No.7 Total: 21

Integrated with multi-source Earth Content Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Overview 1 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Desert Locust Monitoring in Africa and Asia in 2021 1 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series Contact us 4 in US, Sentinel series in EU), and coast of Sudan and Eritrea, west coast of Saudi self-developed models and algorithms for Arabia and Yemen), the central Arabian Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Peninsula, and the Horn of Africa (eastern research team constructed the ‘Vegetation Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and northern pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting Kenya). In addition, deserts locusts were system’, which could regularly release scattered in western Yemen, southwestern Iran, thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. southeastern Kenya and southeastern coast of This report focuses on the analysis of the Kenya. breeding areas of desert locusts in Asia and In January 2021, affected by the cyclone Africa and prediction of their potential migration GATI, desert locusts in northern Somalia route (Figure 1). The research results are as continued to lay eggs and mature, and desert follows. locust swarms in eastern Ethiopia and northern Desert Locust Monitoring Somalia invaded into southern Ethiopia, in Africa and Asia in 2021 southern Somalia, central and eastern and At the end of 2020, desert locusts in East northern Kenya. At the same time, swarms in Africa and southwest Asia were mainly southern Kenya moved southwards and distributed along the coast of the Red Sea (east

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invaded the northeast of Tanzania. In late spread to Jordan and Syria with southerly

January, swarms from northwestern Somalia winds, invaded southern and eastern Jordan on and central Ethiopia moved northward into the April 15, and reached the Euphrates River

Djibouti and Eritrea, and swarms from western valley near the Iraq and Syria border on the

Yemen spread northward along the coast of April 17. In late April, locusts in Jordan spread

Red Sea to the southwestern coast of Saudi further to the western and central regions with

Arabia. In early and middle February, locust the south winds and moved northward into swarms from northwestern Somalia continued western Syria. On April 22, some locust to invade Djibouti and Eritrea, swarms of swarms crossed the Anti-Lebanon Mountains central Ethiopia, southern Somalia and eastern and entered Lebanon. By the end of the month,

Kenya moved westward to the Lake Turkana in some locusts spread to the banks of the northwest Kenya, and swarms from the coast of Euphrates River valley in western Iraq. The

Red Sea in western Saudi Arabia moved locust swarms in all three countries were small eastward to the central desert area. In late because of control operations. In May, desert

February, swarms from southern Kenya moved locusts from the Horn of Africa kept laying eggs, southward into northern Tanzania, while hatching, and forming hopper bands. In the swarms from western and central Saudi Arabia spring breeding area of central Saudi Arabia, continued eastward to the border with Kuwait. locusts formed immature adults and migrated to

In March, impacted by ground control actions southern Yemen. At the same time, low and less rainfall, the numbers of desert locusts numbers of solitary adults persist along the Red in Ethiopia and Somalia decreased gradually. Sea coastal plains in Yemen.

Swarms in Eritrea moved northward along the At present, most of the desert locusts in

Red Sea to the east coast of Sudan; swarms in Africa and Asia are conducting spring breeding. central Saudi Arabia with strong east wind Due to the ground control operations, the invaded Kuwait and moved across the Persian number and size of desert locust swarms have

Gulf to the southwestern Iran. In April, as decreased significantly compared with the ground control operations continued, desert same period of last year. As the locusts in Iran locust populations continued to decline in the spawn, breed, and mature, it is expected that

Horn of Africa. In middle April, locusts from the the locusts may spread eastward to Pakistan in central and western coasts of Saudi Arabia June and July. Affected by the monsoon in July,

- 7 - Page 3 the locusts in Pakistan would continue to northern Somalia will continue to spawn and spread eastward to the Indo-Pakistan border, if mature. It is expected that locusts will spread to not effectively controlled. If the monsoon is northeast Ethiopia in August and September for strong enough, the locusts may invade central summer breeding. In the next four months

India. With the ongoing control operations and (June to September 2020), countries will usher dry weather conditions, the hopper bands in the in the important growing season or harvest northern interior of Saudi Arabia are expected season of food crops. If desert locusts continue to gradually decrease, and some locusts are to wreak havoc, agricultural and animal expected to migrate southward to Yemen in husbandry production and national livelihood of

June and July for summer breeding. At the Asian and African countries will be seriously same time, due to the impact of rainfall in the threatened.

Horn of Africa, locusts in eastern Ethiopia and

Figure 1 Current situation and prediction of desert locust breeding areas and main migration paths in Asia and

Africa in 2021 (June to September)

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June 2021

No.6 Total: 20

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Kenya 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 5 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series thousand hectares of cropland, 260.7 thousand in US, Sentinel series in EU), and hectares of grassland and 229.5 thousand self-developed models and algorithms for hectares of shrub. Due to the rain in the Horn of Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Africa at the end of May, the locusts in Ethiopia research team constructed the ‘Vegetation and Somalia continued to mature and pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting reproduce. They are expected to spread to system’, which could regularly release Kenya in June and July, and the number of thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. locusts in Kenya will increase significantly. The This report focuses on the updates of next two months will see the planting season in desert locust monitoring and loss assessment Kenya. It is still necessary to pay close in Kenya from March to May 2021. The results attention to the dynamics of desert locust in showed that from March to May 2021, desert Kenya to prevent losses to agricultural and locusts in Kenya were mainly distributed in the pasture production. The research results are as western and central regions. Compared with follows. February, the newly damaged vegetation was

564.3 thousand hectares, including 74.1

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Monitoring and with an increase of 80.8 thousand hectares assessment of Desert (including 15.1 thousand hectares of cropland,

Locust in Kenya 39.2 thousand hectares of grassland, and 26.5 In March 2021, due to the rainfall, locusts thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 3). in northern Kenya continue to spawn, The research results show that, compared reproduce, and mature. Due to ground control with February 2020, desert locusts in Kenya operations, the number of locusts in Kenya newly harmed about a total of 564.3 thousand decreased. The monitoring results showed that, hectares of vegetation area from March to May, in March, desert locusts in Kenya harmed including 74.1 thousand hectares of cropland, about 373.9 thousand hectares of vegetation 260.7 thousand hectares of grassland, and area, with an increase of 339.0 thousand 229.5 thousand hectares of shrub, accounting hectares (including 41.3 thousand hectares of for 1.4%, 1.3% and 0.7% of the total cropland, cropland, 141.7 thousand hectares of grassland, and shrub in Kenya, respectively. grassland, and 156.0 thousand hectares of The affected areas were mainly located in the shrub) (Figure 1). In early April, the number of central and western parts of Kenya. Among locusts in Kenya continued to decrease due to them, Rift Valley Province was the worst ground control operations. In mid and late April, affected area (with an affected area of 327.4 locusts in Kenya continued to mature and lay thousand hectares), followed by Eastern eggs due to the rains. The monitoring results Province (with an affected area of 198.3 showed that in April, desert locusts in Kenya thousand hectares), then Nyanza and Coast harmed about 276.4 thousand hectares, with provinces (with an area of 1.39 and 10.4 an increase of 144.5 thousand hectares thousand hectares). The affected areas of (including 17.7 thousand hectares of cropland, Central Province, Western Province, Nairobi 79.8 thousand hectares of grassland and 47.0 Special Administrative Region and thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 2). In May, Northeastern Province were relatively small the number of locusts in Kenya decreased (with the affected areas of 0.99, 0.38, 0.05, and significantly because of ground control 0.01 thousand hectares, respectively). operations. The monitoring results showed that Comprehensive analysis shows that in in May, desert locusts in Kenya harmed about June 2021, as ground control operations 185.1 thousand hectares of vegetation area, continue, the size and number of desert locust

- 11 - Page 3 swarms in Kenya have significantly decreased locusts in Kenya. The next two months will compared to the same period of last year. coincide with the planting season in Kenya and

Forecasts show that desert locusts of Ethiopia we still need to pay close attention to the and Somalia will continue to mature, breed and situation of desert locust in Kenya. If not lay eggs in June and July, due to rainfall in late properly controlled, locusts will bring a major

May. As the number of locusts increases, threat to agricultural and pasture production. locusts of southern Ethiopia and southern Ground surveys and control actions are

Somalia will spread southward into Kenya, required to safeguard the agricultural and leading to a further increase in the number of pasture production.

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (March 2021)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (April 2021)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (May 2021)

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Main contributors Chinese English This report was released by Professor Wenjiang The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s Forecasting system are available under: research team in Aerospace Information Research http://www.rscropmap.com/ Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Huifang Wang, Hong Chang, Yun Disclaimer Geng, Chao Ruan, Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Liu, Naichen Xing, Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Hansu Zhang, Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Chao Ding, Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xiangmei Qin, Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, analyses and conclusions in the report do not Zhuoqing Hao, Kang Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng report and indicate the source. However, any Wang, Wei Feng, Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Muyi Huang, Jing Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui the report do not represent the views of the Team. Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, The data published in this report are for reference Furan Song, Qingsong Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang only. The Team does not bear any legal Liu. responsibility arising from the use of the report. Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Jingquan Zhu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing National Natural Science Foundation of China Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Technology (Z191100001119089), National special Jadu Dash.

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May 2021

No.5 Total: 19

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Ethiopia 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 5 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series thousand hectares, including 244.4 thousand in US, Sentinel series in EU), and hectares of cropland, 295.3 thousand hectares self-developed models and algorithms for of grassland, and 846.2 thousand hectares of Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the shrub. From May to July, affected by rainfall, research team constructed the ‘Vegetation locusts in Ethiopia will continue to lay eggs, pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting hatch and mature. The locusts in the north will system’, which could regularly release spread northwestward to the coast of the Red thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. Sea, and the locusts in the south will spread This report focuses on the updates of southward to northern Kenya. The number of desert locust monitoring and loss assessment locusts in Ethiopia is expected to increase in Ethiopia from February to April 2021. The further. The next three months are important results showed that from February to April 2021, planting seasons for crops in Ethiopia. It is still desert locusts in Ethiopia were mainly necessary to pay continuous attention to the distributed in the central and southern regions. dynamics of the desert locusts in Ethiopia to Compared with January 2021, the newly prevent repeated losses to its agricultural and damaged vegetation area was 1385.9 pasture production. The specific research

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results are as follows. Monitoring and compared to the same period of last year. In assessment of Desert mid-to-late April, affected by the rainfall, Locust in Ethiopia Ethiopian locusts continued to lay eggs, hatch In early February 2021, due to ground and mature. The locust swarms were mainly control actions, the number of locusts in located in the central and northeastern Ethiopia decreased significantly; in mid-to-late Oromiya. The monitoring results show that in February 2021, locust swarms in northwestern April, desert locusts in Ethiopia harmed about Somalia spread to Somali, eastern Ethiopia. 547.5 thousand hectares of vegetation area, At the same time, affected by the rainfall, with an increase of 294.2 thousand hectares locust swarms in the south continued to lay (including 56.4 thousand hectares of cropland, eggs, hatch and mature, further increasing the 6.6 thousand hectares of grassland, and 231.2 number of locusts. The monitoring results thousand hectares of shrub) (Fig. 3). show that in February, desert locusts in The result of research shows that, Ethiopia harmed about 902.9 thousand compared with January 2021, from February hectares of vegetation area, with an increase to April 2021, desert locusts in Ethiopia newly of 503.3 thousand hectares (including 88.3 harmed about a total of 1385.9 thousand thousand hectares of cropland, 155.9 hectares of vegetation area, including 244.4 thousand hectares of grassland, and 259.1 thousand hectares of cropland, 295.3 thousand hectares of shrub) (Fig. 1). In March thousand hectares of grassland, and 846.2 2021, locust swarms in northwest Somalia thousand hectares of shrub, accounting for continued to spread to eastern Ethiopia, but 1.0%, 1.7% and 1.2% of the total cropland, due to good ground control operations, the grassland, and shrub in Ethiopia, respectively. number of locusts in Ethiopia decreased The affected areas were mainly located in the significantly. The monitoring results show that central and southern Ethiopia. Among them, in March, desert locusts in Ethiopia harmed Oromiya is worst affected with an area of about 744.2 thousand hectares of vegetation 1175.7 thousand hectares, then SNNPR with area, with an increase of 588.4 thousand an affected area of 205.1 thousand hectares, hectares (including 99.7 thousand hectares of Somali with an affected area of 5.1 thousand cropland, 132.8 thousand hectares of hectares. grassland, and 355.9 thousand hectares of Comprehensive analysis shows that, from May to July 2021, affected by rainfall, Ethiopian shrub) (Fig. 2). In early April 2021, due to locust swarms will continue to mature and lay continuous ground control actions, the number eggs. At the same time, the northern locust of locusts in Ethiopia decreased significantly swarms will continue to spread to the coast of

- 16 - Page 3 the Red Sea, the southern locust swarms will It is still necessary to pay continuous attention spread southward to Kenya, and the locust to the dynamics of the desert locusts and carry swarms in northwestern Somalia will continue out timely ground investigations and control to migrate to eastern Ethiopia. The number of actions to prevent the desert locusts from locust swarms in Ethiopia is expected to repeatedly causing damage to Ethiopia’s increase further. The next three months are agricultural production and food security. important planting seasons for crops in Ethiopia.

Figure 1 Monitoring of desert locust damage in Ethiopia (February 2021)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of desert locust damage in Ethiopia (March 2021)

Figure 3 Monitoring of desert locust damage in Ethiopia (April 2021)

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April 2021

No.4 Total: 18

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Somalia 1 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 6 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series thousand hectares, including 16.3 thousand in US, Sentinel series in EU), and hectares of cropland, 307.8 thousand hectares self-developed models and algorithms for of grassland, and 1007.2 thousand hectares of Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the shrub. Affected by ground control operations research team constructed the ‘Vegetation and poor rainfall in spring, the number of pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting locusts in Somalia is expected to decrease system’, which could regularly release significantly in April. From April to May, it is an thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. important planting season for crops in Somalia. This report focuses on the updates of It is still necessary to pay constant attention to Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment the dynamics of the Desert Locust disaster in in Somalia from December 2020 to March 2021. Somalia to prevent greater losses to its The results showed that from December 2020 agricultural and pasture production. The to March 2021, Desert Locusts in Somalia were specific research results are as follows. mainly distributed in the north and south. Monitoring and Compared with November 2020, the newly assessment of Desert damaged vegetation area was 1331.3 Locust in Somalia In early December 2020, with the heavy

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rainfall brought by tropical cyclone Gati, local in late February 2021, the northern locust locusts in Somalia continued to multiply and lay swarms continued to spread westward, while eggs in the northern coastal areas, resulting in some locusts spread to central Somalia. The increasing number of locusts; in mid-to-late monitoring results show that in February, December 2020, locusts in northern Somalia Desert Locusts in Somalia harmed about 547.3 continued to multiply and spread south along thousand hectares of vegetation area, with an the Dava River on the Ethiopian border to increase of 293.4 thousand hectares (including northeastern Kenya. Locusts were distributed 1.5 thousand hectares of cropland, 31.5 in northern, central, and southern Somalia. The thousand hectares of grassland, and 260.4 monitoring results show that in last December, thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 3). In Desert Locusts in Somalia harmed about 628.4 March 2021, thanks to sound ground control thousand hectares of vegetation area, with an operations, the number of locusts in central and increase of 552.8 thousand hectares (including southern Somalia further decreased. The 10.9 thousand hectares of cropland, 196.3 northern locusts continued to lay eggs and thousand hectares of grassland, and 345.6 reproduce and mature. At the same time, they thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 1). In continued to spread along the northern plateau January 2021, local locusts in Somalia to the eastern Somali of Ethiopia. The continued to reproduce and lay eggs, leading to monitoring results show that in March, Desert a further increase in the number of locusts. At Locusts in Somalia harmed about 506.0 the same time, the central locust swarms thousand hectares of vegetation area, with an spread along the Shabelle River to northern increase of 157.4 thousand hectares (including Kenya. Subsequently, with large-scale ground 0.1 thousand hectares of cropland, 33.8 control operations, the number of locusts thousand hectares of grassland, and 123.5 gradually decreased. The monitoring results thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 4). show that in January, Desert Locusts in The research result shows that, compared with Somalia harmed about 643.8 thousand November 2020, from December 2020 to hectares of vegetation area, with an increase of March 2021, Desert Locusts in Somalia newly 327.7 thousand hectares (including 3.8 harmed about a total of 1331.3 thousand thousand hectares of cropland, 46.2 thousand hectares of vegetation area, including 16.3 hectares of grassland, and 277.7 thousand thousand hectares of cropland, 307.8 thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 2). In early and hectares of grassland, and 1007.2 thousand mid-February 2021, locusts in northeastern hectares of shrub, accounting for 16.8%, 7.9% Somalia spread westward, and locust swarms and 2.3% of the total cropland, grassland, and on the northwest coast spread to eastern shrub in Somalia, respectively. The affected Ethiopia, and continued to lay eggs and areas were mainly located in the north and reproduce. Due to ground control operations, south of Somalia. Among them, Gedo suffered the number of locusts decreased significantly; most, with affected area of 265.4 thousand

- 21 - Page 3 hectares, followed by Shabeellaha dhexe, operations, the scale and number of Desert 238.5 thousand hectares, Togdheer, Woqooyi Locust swarms in Somalia have been galbeed in the northwest, Jubbada dhexe and significantly reduced compared to the same Bay in the south with affected areas of 152.4, period last year. Forecasts show that the spring 135.5, 130.4, 109.9 thousand hectares rainfall in Somalia will decrease in April, the respectively. The affected areas of Shabeellaha environment will be drier, the reproduction of hoose in the south were 68.9 thousand locusts will be further restricted, and the hectares, Sool in the north were 49.2 thousand number of locusts will continue to decrease. hectares, Awdal in the northwest 44.3 thousand From April to May, it is the important planting hectares, Bakool in the south 32.1 thousand season of food crops in Somalia. It is still hectares, Sanaag in the north 29.5 thousand necessary to pay constant attention to the hectares, and Hiiraan in the central 21.9 dynamics of the Desert Locust disasters and thousand hectares. The affected areas in carry out timely ground investigations and Mudug, Jubbada hoose, Galguduud, Nugaal, control actions to prevent the Desert Locusts and Bari were 18.0, 14.7, 12.2, 4.8, 3.6 from causing damage to agricultural production thousand hectares respectively. and food security in Somalia repeatedly. Comprehensive analysis shows that in early In early and mid-January 2021, locust swarms April 2021, with continuous ground control in

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (December 2020)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (January 2021)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (February 2021)

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Figure 4 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (March 2021)

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Aerospace Information Research Institute Technology (Z191100001119089), National special Chinese Academy of Sciences support program for high-level personnel No.9 Dengzhuang South Road, Haidian District, recruitment (Wenjiang Huang), and Youth Beijing 100094, P.R.China. Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2017085). http://www.rscrop.com/ Contact us Email: [email protected] http://www.rscropmap.com Corresponding author Professor Wenjiang Huang Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-10-82178178

FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Jingquan Zhu, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong National Natural Science Foundation of China Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Jadu Dash.

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March 2021

No.3 Total: 17

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Kenya 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 6 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series thousand hectares, including 95.4 thousand in US, Sentinel series in EU), and hectares of cropland, 312.9 thousand hectares self-developed models and algorithms for of grassland, and 390.3 thousand hectares of Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the shrub. According with the rain at the end of research team constructed the ‘Vegetation February, the local locusts continued to mature pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting and about to start spring breeding in March. system’, which could regularly release However, due to ground control operations, the thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. number of locusts is expected to decrease This report focuses on the dynamic significantly. The next three months will updates of desert locust monitoring and loss coincide with the important crop planting assessment in Kenya from January to February season in Kenya. It is still necessary to pay 2021. The results showed that from January to attention to the dynamics of the desert locust February 2021, desert locusts in Kenya were disaster in Kenya to prevent losses to mainly distributed in the northern and central agricultural and pasture production. The regions. Compared with December 2020, the specific research results are as follows. newly damaged vegetation area was 798.6

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Monitoring and thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 2). assessment of Desert The result of research shows that,

Locust in Kenya compared with December 2020, desert locusts In early and mid-January 2021, locust in Kenya newly harmed about a total of 798.6 swarms in Ethiopia and Somalia continued to thousand hectares of vegetation are a in migrate to northern, central, and eastern Kenya, January and February 2021, including 95.4 resulting in an increase in the number of thousand hectares of cropland, 312.9 thousand locusts. In late January, locusts in Somalia hectares of grassland, and 390.3 thousand spread to Kenya along the Shabelle River. As hectares of shrub, accounting for 1.8%, 1.6% the local locusts continued to mature and lay and 1.1% of the total cropland, grassland, and eggs, the number of locust swarms in the north, shrub in Kenya, respectively. The affected central and east of Kenya had further increased, areas were mainly located in the central and and the locusts had begun to spread to the northern parts of Kenya. Among them, North west. The monitoring results show that, in Eastern Province was the largest affected area January, desert locusts in Kenya harmed about (with an affected area of 342.1 thousand 604.2 thousand hectares of vegetation area, hectares), followed by Eastern Province (with with an increase of 472.1 thousand hectares an affected area of 251.0 thousand hectares), (including 49.5 thousand hectares of cropland, again were Rift Valley Province and Coast 199.7 thousand hectares of grassland, and Province (with affected area of 136.3 and 67.7 222.9 thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 1). thousand hectares). The affected area in In early February, local locusts continued to Central Province was small (with an affected spread to the west and northwest, but due to area of 1.5 thousand hectares). ground control operations, the number of This study also used Sentinel-2 satellite locusts in Kenya decreased significantly. The remote sensing data to monitor the desert monitoring results show that, in February, locust damage in the severely affected desert locusts in Kenya harmed about 518.5 vegetation areas in central Kenya (Figure 3). thousand hectares of vegetation area, with an The data acquisition time is February 2021, and increase of 326.5 thousand hectares (including the spatial resolution is 10m. The study area is 45.9 thousand hectares of cropland, 113.2 located at the junction of Rift Valley Province thousand hectares of grassland, and 167.4 and Eastern Province, about 24 kilometers

- 27 - Page 3 northeast of Isiolo, and about 46 kilometers monitoring of the locust situation is needed to southwest of Nanyuki. The vegetation types ensure Kenya’s agricultural production and include grassland, shrub, and cropland, with a food security. total area of 222.2 thousand hectares, including Comprehensive analysis shows that in

37.2 thousand hectares of cropland, 100.4 March 2021, local locusts will continue to thousand hectares of grassland, and 84.6 mature and begin spring breeding. However, as thousand hectares of shrub. The monitoring ground control operations continue, the size results showed that the damaged area of and number of desert locust swarms in Kenya vegetation in the study area was 27.5 thousand have significantly decreased compared to the hectares, accounting for 12.4% of the study same period of last year. Forecasts show that area’s total area. Among them, grassland was the rainfall in Kenya will decrease in March and the largest damage area with 14.9 thousand April, the environment will be drier, and the hectares, followed by shrub with 11.1 thousand reproduction of locusts will be further restricted. hectares, and farmland was the smallest The next three months will coincide with the affected area with 1.5 thousand hectares, important crop planting season in Kenya. If not accounting for 14.8%, 13.1%, and 4.0% of the properly controlled, locusts will bring a major total area of grassland, shrub, and cropland in threat to agricultural and pasture production. the study area, respectively. The results of the Ground surveys and control actions are study show that the desert locust disaster in required to ensure the safety of agricultural and

Kenya is still severe, and continuous pasture production.

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Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (January 2021)

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (February 2021)

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Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of Kenya based on Sentinel-2 images (February 2021)

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February 2021

No.2 Total: 16

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Ethiopia 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 6 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series thousand hectares, including 449.7 thousand in US, Sentinel series in EU), and hectares of cropland, 608.0 thousand hectares self-developed models and algorithms for of grassland, and 1315.9 thousand hectares of Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the shrub. From February and March 2021, locusts research team constructed the ‘Vegetation in southern Ethiopia will continue to lay eggs, pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting hatch, and mature, and locusts in the north will system’, which could regularly release spread northward to the Red Sea coast. Locust thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. swarms in northwest Somalia will continue to This report focuses on the updates of migrate to eastern Ethiopia. It is expected that desert locust monitoring and loss assessment the number of locust swarms in Ethiopia will in Ethiopia from November 2020 to January further increase. The following two months 2021. The results showed that from November coincide with the important crop planting 2020 to January 2021, desert locusts in season in Ethiopia. If not properly controlled, Ethiopia were mainly distributed in the east and locusts will bring a major threat to agricultural south. Compared with October, the newly and pasture production. It is necessary to damaged vegetation area was 2373.6 continue the monitoring and early warning of

- 32 - Page 2 the intercontinental desert locust plague and thousand hectares (including 246.5 thousand organize joint prevention and control in multiple hectares of cropland, 215.2 thousand hectares countries, ensuring the safety of agricultural of grassland, and 349.1 thousand hectares of and pasture production and regional stability. shrub) (Figure 2). In early January 2021, locust Monitoring and swarms in eastern Ethiopia continued to spread assessment of Desert to the south; in mid-to-late January, locust

Locust in Ethiopia swarms in northwestern Somalia migrated to In November 2020, due to ground control northwestern Ethiopia to Afar and Amhara and actions, the number of locusts in northwestern gradually spread to Tigray. The monitoring Ethiopia significantly decreased. However, as results showed that, in January 2021, desert the locusts in the east continued to mature, the locusts in Ethiopia harmed about 931.7 number of locusts in the east increased. The thousand hectares of vegetation area, with an locust swarms were mainly located in the east increase of 698.9 thousand hectares (including and north of Somali. The results showed that in 167.1 thousand hectares of cropland, 182.7 November 2020, desert locusts in Ethiopia thousand hectares of grassland, and 349.1 harmed about 976.0 thousand hectares of thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 3). vegetation area, with an increase of 863.9 The results showed that, compared with thousand hectares (including 36.1 thousand October, from November 2020 to January 2021, hectares of cropland, 210.1 thousand hectares desert locusts in Ethiopia newly harmed about of grassland, and 617.7 thousand hectares of a total of 2373.6 thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 1). In early and mid-December, vegetation area, including 449.7 thousand the eastern locust swarms continued to breed hectares of cropland, 608.0 thousand hectares locally, and the number of locusts further of grassland, and 1315.9 thousand hectares of increased. In late December, the locust swarms shrub, accounting for 1.9%, 3.5% and 1.8% of in the east spread southwest to the southwest the total cropland, grassland, and shrub in along the Shebel River to Oromiya and SNNPR. Ethiopia, respectively. The affected areas were The monitoring results showed that, in mainly located in the east and south of Ethiopia. December 2020, desert locusts in Ethiopia Eastern Somali region was the largest affected harmed about 1051.7 thousand hectares of area (with an affected area of 1239.7 thousand vegetation area, with an increase of 810.8 hectares), followed by the southern Oromia

- 33 - Page 3 region (with an affected area of 786.1 thousand grassland was 9.6 thousand hectares, and the hectares), and again SNNPR (with an affected damaged area of farmland was 0.5 thousand area of 320.6 thousand hectares). Tigray, Alpha, hectares, accounting for 12.3%, 13.2%, and and Amhara states in the northwest have 29.4% of the total area of shrub, grassland and relatively small damage area, with 21.4, 5.6, cropland in the study area. The results show

0.2 thousand hectares, respectively. that desert locusts still threaten the vegetation

This study also used Sentinel-2 satellite in Ethiopia, and continuous monitoring of the remote sensing data to monitor the desert locust situation is needed to ensure agricultural locust disaster in the severely affected production and food security in Ethiopia. vegetation areas on Ethiopia’s southern border Comprehensive analysis shows that, in

(Figure 4). The data acquisition time is January February and March 2021, affected by rainfall,

2021, and the spatial resolution is 10m. The locust swarms in southern Ethiopia will study area is located in the southern region of continue to mature and reproduce and lay eggs.

Oromia State, about 70 kilometers southeast Simultaneously, locust swarms in the north will from Mega and 140 kilometers northeast from continue to spread to the Red Sea coast, and

Finchawa. The vegetation types include locust swarms in northwestern Somalia will grassland, shrub, and cropland, with 173.9 continue to migrate to eastern Ethiopia. It is thousand hectares, including 1.7 thousand expected that the number of locust swarms in hectares of cropland, 73.0 thousand hectares Ethiopia will further increase. The following two of grassland, and 99.2 thousand hectares of months coincide with the vital crop planting shrub. The monitoring results showed that the season in Ethiopia. If not properly controlled, damaged area of vegetation in the study area locusts will bring a major threat to agricultural was 22.3 thousand hectares, accounting for and pasture production. Ground surveys and

12.8% of the study area’s total area. Among control actions are required to ensure the them, the damaged area of shrubs was 12.2 safety of agricultural and pasture production. thousand hectares, the damaged area of

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Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (November 2020)

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (December 2020)

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Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (January 2021)

Figure 4 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of Ethiopia based on Sentinel-2 images

(January 2021)

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January 2021

No.1 Total: 15

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Kenya 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 6 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series hectares, including 77.3 thousand hectares of in US, Sentinel series in EU), and cropland, 416.1 thousand hectares of self-developed models and algorithms for grassland, and 626.4 thousand hectares of Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the shrub. From January to February 2021, locust research team constructed the ‘Vegetation swarms in eastern Ethiopia and central pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting Somalia will continue to migrate to northern system’, which could regularly release Kenya. The locusts will continue to lay eggs, thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. hatch, mature, and spread throughout the north. This report focuses on the updates of It is expected that the number of locust swarms desert locust monitoring and loss assessment in Kenya will further increase. The next two in Kenya from September to December 2020. months coincides with the important crop The results showed that from September to growing season in Kenya. If not properly December 2020, desert locusts in Kenya were controlled, locusts will bring a major threat to mainly distributed in the northwest, northeast agricultural and pasture production. It is and south. Compared with August, the newly necessary to continue the monitoring and early damaged vegetation area was 1119.8 thousand warning of the intercontinental desert locust

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plague, and organize joint prevention and 2.7 thousand hectares of grassland, and 12.3 control in multiple countries, ensuring the thousand hectares of shrub (Figure 2). In early safety of agricultural and pasture production, as and mid-November, the locust swarms in well as regional stability. central Somalia migrated to the Mandera in Monitoring and northeastern Kenya and laid eggs. The locust assessment of Desert swarms in the Samburu in northwest Kenya

Locust in Kenya continued to breed locally; in late November, In September 2020, affected by ground affected by the north wind, locust swarms of control actions, the number of locusts in Kenya central and southern Somalia continued to continued to decrease. The locust swarms migrate to eastern and northeastern Kenya, were mainly located in the north-central Rift and spread south to the southern border of Valley Province, i.e., the western and southern Kenya. At the same time, affected by rainfall, regions of Lake Turkana. The results showed locust swarms in the northwest and northeast that in September, desert locust in Kenya continued to lay eggs, and the number of harmed about 371.8 thousand hectares of locusts continued to increase. The monitoring vegetation area, with an increase of 291.7 results showed that, in November, desert locust thousand hectares (including 21.2 thousand in Kenya newly harmed about 366.0 thousand hectares of cropland, 110.4 thousand hectares hectares of vegetation area, including 26.9 of grassland, and 160.1 thousand hectares of thousand hectares of cropland, 128.7 thousand shrub) (Figure 1). In October, along with rainfall, hectares of grassland, and 210.4 thousand the locust swarms in the northwest continued to hectares of shrub (Figure 3). In December, reproduce locally, but ground control operations locust swarms in southeastern Ethiopia and continued, and the number of locusts southern Somalia continued to migrate to decreased significantly. Only a small part of the northeast and east of Kenya. For the first time, locust swarms was distributed in the central Rift large-scale locust swarms appeared on the Valley Province (south of Lake Turkana). The eastern coast of Coast Province. The locusts monitoring results showed that, in October, continued to breed, and their population further desert locust in Kenya newly harmed about increased. The monitoring results showed that, 17.5 thousand hectares of vegetation area, in December, desert locust in Kenya newly including 2.5 thousand hectares of cropland, harmed about 444.6 thousand hectares of - 39 - Page 3 vegetation area, including 26.7 thousand (with affected area of 0.6 thousand hectares), hectares of cropland, 174.3 thousand hectares and Nairobi Area (with affected area of 0.4 of grassland, and 243.6 thousand hectares of thousand hectares). The results of the study shrub (Figure 4). showed that desert locusts still threaten the

The results showed that, compared with vegetation in Kenya, and continuous monitoring

August, from September to December 2020, is needed to ensure the agricultural production desert locust in Kenya newly harmed about a and food security in Kenya. total of 1119.8 thousand hectares of vegetation Comprehensive analysis shows that, from area, including 77.3 thousand hectares of January to February 2021, the locust swarms in cropland, 416.1 thousand hectares of eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia will grassland, and 626.4 thousand hectares of continue to migrate to Kenya. The locusts in shrub, accounting for 1.5%, 2.1% and 1.8% of Kenya will continue to multiply, mature and the total cropland, grassland, and shrub in spread to the surrounding areas. It is estimated

Kenya, respectively. The affected areas were that the number of locust swarms in Kenya will mainly located in the northwest, northeast and further increase. If the environment is suitable, south of Kenya. Eastern Province in the central locusts in Kenya may migrate westward to part was the largest affected area (with affected Uganda and southward to Tanzania in February. area of 379.3 thousand hectares); followed by The next two months coincides with the the Rift Valley Province in the west (with important crop growing season in Kenya. If not affected area of 341.3 thousand hectares), and properly controlled, locusts will bring a major again North Eastern Province (with affected threat to agricultural and pasture production. area of 325.3 thousand hectares), Coast Ground surveys and control actions are

Province in the south (with affected area of required to ensure the safety of agricultural and

72.9 thousand hectares), Central Province pasture production.

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Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (September 2020)

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (October 2020)

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Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (November 2020)

Figure 4 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (December 2020)

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December 2020

No.14 Total: 14

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Somalia 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Contact us 5 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series hectares of grassland, and 845.4 thousand in US, Sentinel series in EU), and hectares of the shrub. In December, the desert self-developed models and algorithms for locust in Somalia will continue to reproduce and

Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the migrate southward. It is expected to reach northeastern Kenya in mid-December and research team constructed the ‘Vegetation spread westward and southward. The next three pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting months coincides with the important crop system’, which could regularly release growing season in Somalia. If not properly thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. controlled, locusts will bring a major threat to This report focuses on the dynamic updates agricultural and pasture production. It is of desert locust monitoring and loss assessment necessary to continue the monitoring and early in Somalia from October to November, 2020. warning of the intercontinental desert locust The results showed that from October to plague, and organize joint prevention and November 2020, desert locusts in Somalia were control in multiple countries, ensuring the safety mainly distributed in the northwest and the of agricultural and pasture production, as well as middle of the border with Ethiopia. Compared regional stability. with September, the newly damaged vegetation area was 975.5 thousand hectares, including 0.6 thousand hectares of cropland, 129.5 thousand

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Monitoring and migrate eastward to northeast Somalia. The assessment of Desert monitoring results showed that, by the end of Locust in Somalia November 2020, desert locust in Somalia In early October, Yemeni locust swarms harmed about 663.8 thousand hectares of continued to move across the Gulf of Aden to vegetation area, an increase of 559.2thousand northern Somalia. Somali locust swarms were hectares compared with September 2020 mainly located in the Garowe region in the (including 0.5 thousand hectares of cropland, northwest and northeast. In mid-to-late October, 81.8 thousand hectares of grassland, and 476.9 the northeast locust swarms continued to thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 2). multiply. Along with the north wind, the northern The results showed that, from October to locust swarms gradually spread to the center November 2020, desert locust in Somalia newly and laid eggs, and the number of locust swarms harmed about a total of 975.5 thousand hectares in central Somalia continued to increase. The of vegetation area, including 0.6 thousand results showed that, by the end of October 2020, hectares of cropland, 129.5 thousand hectares desert locust in Somalia harmed about 591.8 of grassland, and 845.4 thousand hectares of thousand hectares of vegetation area, an shrub, accounting for 0.6%, 3.3% and 1.9% of increase of 416.3 thousand hectares compared the total cropland, grassland, and shrub in with September 2020 (including 0.1 thousand Somalia, respectively. The affected areas were hectares of cropland, 47.7 thousand hectares of mainly located in the northwest, central and grassland, and 368.5 thousand hectares of southern parts of Somalia. Gedo in the south shrub) (Figure 1). In early and mid-November, was the largest affected area (with affected area locusts in central Somalia continued to hatch, of 210.2 thousand hectares); followed by Hiiraan and the number of locusts continued to increase. in the central (with affected area of 190.2 Some locust swarms migrated south to thousand hectares), and again Galguduud in the northeastern and southern Kenya; in the middle middle, Mudug in the middle, Bakool in the south, and late November, with the heavy rainfall Woqooyi galbeed in the northwest, and Awdal in brought by tropical cyclone Gati, the locusts in the northwest, and the affected areas were the Garowe area continued to multiply and 141.4, 110.2, 69.8, 69.5, 59.4 thousand hectares mature, leading to a further increase of the respectively. Togdheer in the northwest had number of locusts. Coupled with the influence of affected area of 38.8 thousand hectares, Sool in the northerly winds, the locusts in central the north had affected area of 34 thousand Somalia continued to spread to the south and hectares, Sanaag in the north had affected area eastern Kenya; during the same period, the of 22 thousand hectares, and Bay in the south locusts in eastern Ethiopia also continued to had affected area of 15.5 thousand hectares;

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Bari in the north, Shabeellaha dhexe in the south, the total area of the study area. Among them, Nugaal in the middle and Jubbada dhexe in the the shrub was affected most severely with 20.1 south had less affected areas, with damaged thousand hectares, while the affected areas of area of 6.8, 4.6, 1.8, 0.8 thousand hectares, cropland and grassland are 0.4 thousand respectively. hectares and 0.1 thousand hectares, accounting This study used EU Sentinel-2 remote for 11.1%, 23.5%, and 33.3% of the total area of sensing images to monitor desert locust shrub, cropland and grassland, respectively. The disasters in the more severely affected areas at results of the study show that desert locusts still the junction of Somalia and Ethiopia (Figure 3). threaten the vegetation in Somalia, and The data acquisition time is October 2020, and continuous monitoring of the locust situation is the spatial resolution is 10m. The study area is needed to ensure the agricultural production and located in the southern region of Odal, about 25 food security in Somalia. kilometers southeast of Boorama and 20 Comprehensive analysis shows that in kilometers northeast of Weeraar. The vegetation December 2020, the locusts on the border types include grassland, shrubs and cropland, between central Somalia and Ethiopia will including 1.7 thousand hectares of cropland, 0.3 continue to multiply and spread. It is expected thousand hectares of grassland, and 180.3 that in mid-December, a large number of thousand hectares of shrubland. The monitoring immature locusts will continue to migrate south, results showed that, in October 2020, the reach southern Somalia and invade affected area of vegetation in the study area was northeastern Kenya, and spreading to the north 20.6 thousand hectares, accounting for 11.3% of and central counties.

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (October 2020)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (November 2020)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of Somalia based on Sentinel-2 images (October 2020)

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Binyuan Ren, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong National Natural Science Foundation of China Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Jadu Dash.

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November 2020

No.13 Total: 13

Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the breeding and will migrate north to the east, then is expected to reach northeastern Kenya in research team constructed the ‘Vegetation December. The period from November to pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting December coincides with the important crop system’, which could regularly release harvest season and planting season in countries thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. of the Horn of Africa. If not properly controlled, This report focuses on the dynamic update locusts will bring a major threat to agricultural of desert locust monitoring and loss assessment and pasture production. It is necessary to in Ethiopia from September to October. The continue the monitoring and early warning of the results showed that from September to October desert locust plague, and organize joint 2020, desert locusts in Ethiopia were mainly prevention and control in multiple countries, distributed along the western and eastern edges ensuring the safety of agricultural and pasture of the northern Rift Valley, and harmed about production, as well as regional stability. 1544.0 thousand hectares of vegetation area, including 488.2 thousand hectares of cropland,

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Monitoring and hectares of grassland, and 645.5 thousand assessment of Desert hectares of shrub, accounting for 2.0%, 2.3% Locust in Ethiopia and 0.9% of the total cropland, grassland, and In September 2020, the desert locusts in shrub, respectively. The affected areas are Ethiopia were mainly located along the western mainly located in the northern part of Oromiya and eastern edges of the northern Rift Valley. (with affected area of 618.5 thousand hectares), The locusts continued to reproduce, lay eggs, western and southern Afar (with affected area of hatch and mature, and the number of locusts 356.2 thousand hectares), and northern Somali continued to increase. The results showed that, (with affected area of 265.8 thousand hectares), by the end of September 2020, desert locust in the eastern part of Amhara (with affected area of Ethiopia harmed about 1107.1 thousand 205.2 thousand hectares), the southern part of hectares of vegetation area, an increase of Tigray (with affected area of 96.7 thousand 776.7 thousand hectares compared with August hectares). While the Southern Nation, Tribe and 2020 (including 214.7 thousand hectares of People State (SNNPR) had less affected areas cropland, 282.1 thousand hectares of grassland, as 1.6 thousand hectares. and 279.9 thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure We also used Sentinel-2 remote sensing 1). In October, the locust swarms in northern images to monitor desert locust disasters in the Ethiopia gradually dispersed to the eastern more severely affected areas at northern Somali State, and continued to reproduce and Ethiopia. The data acquisition time is October lay eggs. As the locust swarms matured and the 2020, and the spatial resolution is 10m. The population continued to increase, some locust study area is located at the junction of the swarms began to migrate to central Somalia. western part of Afar State and the southeastern The results showed that, by the end of October part of Tigray State, about 66 kilometers 2020, desert locust in Ethiopia newly harmed northwest of Ethiopia’s second largest city, the about 767.3 thousand hectares of vegetation capital of Tigray State, Mek'ele, and about 46 area, including 273.5 thousand hectares of kilometers southeast of Gaibu. The total area of cropland, 128.2 thousand hectares of grassland, the study area is 624.3 thousand hectares. The and 365.6 thousand hectares of the shrub vegetation types in the study area include (Figure 2). cropland, grassland and shrub, with the areas as The results showed that, from September to 208.7 thousand hectares, 52.1 thousand October 2020, desert locust in Ethiopia newly hectares, and 363.5 thousand hectares, harmed about a total of 1544.0 thousand respectively. The monitoring results showed that, hectares of vegetation area, including 488.2 in October 2020, the affected area of vegetation thousand hectares of cropland, 410.3 thousand in the study area was 78.9 thousand hectares,

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accounting for 12.6% of the total area of the Eritrea, south to the southern Rift Valley, and east

study area. Among them, the shrub was affected and southeast to eastern Somali and central most severely with 43.1 thousand hectares, Somalia. As the locust swarms in Somali continue while the affected areas of cropland and to mature, the epicentre of locust populations in grassland are 29.6 thousand hectares and 6.2 Ethiopia will shift from the north to the east, and thousand hectares, accounting for 11.9%, 14.2%, and 11.9% of the total area of shrub, cropland the population will further increase. At the same and grassland, respectively (Figure 3). The time, some locust swarms in eastern Somalia will

results of the study show that desert locusts also migrate south to eastern Ethiopia. It is have caused huge damage to Ethiopia’s expected that the locust swarms will migrate vegetation, and continuous monitoring of the south to northeastern Kenya in December. locust situation is needed to ensure Ethiopia’s November to December is the important harvest agricultural production and food security. season of crops in Ethiopia. If the locusts couldn’t The comprehensive analysis showed that, in be controlled effectively, the locust plague will November 2020, Ethiopia’s desert locusts will continue, which may bring a heavy blow to the continue to reproduce. The locust swarms in the agricultural and pasture production in Ethiopia. north will migrate north to the eastern coast of

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (September 2020)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (October 2020)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of

India based on Sentinel-2 images (October 2020)

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Binyuan Ren, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong National Natural Science Foundation of China Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Jadu Dash.

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October 2020

No.12 Total: 12

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Somalia 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Monitoring and assessment of Desert GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series Locust in Yemen 4 Contact us 6 in US, Sentinel series in EU), and self-developed models and algorithms for of grassland, and 1074.1 thousand hectares of

Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the shrub. Desert Locust in Yemen harmed about research team constructed the ‘Vegetation 1157.1 thousand hectares of vegetation area, pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting including 270.7 thousand hectares of cropland, system’, which could regularly release 123.2 thousand hectares of grassland, and thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. 763.2 thousand hectares of shrub. From

This report focuses on the updates of October to November, the Desert Locusts in

Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment Yemen will continue summer breeding and in Somalia and Yemen from July to September. migrate northward to the western coast of

The results showed that, from July to the end of Saudi Arabia, and southward to northern

September 2020, Desert Locust in Somalia Somalia cross the Gulf of Aden. Moreover, the harmed about 1266.1 thousand hectares of locust swarms of northern Somalia will move vegetation area, including 2.9 thousand southward to eastern Ethiopia and southern hectares of cropland, 189.1 thousand hectares Somalia. The period from October to November coincides with the important crops growing

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season or harvesting season in Somalia and The results showed that, by the end of August

Yemen. If not properly controlled, locusts will 2020, Desert Locust in Somalia added about bring a major threat to agricultural production. It 356.8 thousand hectares of damaged area, is necessary to continue the monitoring and including 0.4 thousand hectares of cropland, early warning of the intercontinental Desert 21.0 thousand hectares of grassland, and

Locust plague, and organize joint prevention 335.4 thousand hectares of shrub. In and control in multiple countries to ensure the September 2020, due to local ground and aerial safety of agricultural and pastoral production, control operations in northern Somalia, the as well as regional stability. locust population continued to decrease. The Monitoring and results showed that, by the end of September assessment of Desert 2020, Desert Locust in Somalia newly harmed

Locust in Somalia about 304.7 thousand hectares of vegetation In July 2020, locusts in central and area, including 0.7 thousand hectares of northern Somalia carried out cropland, 20.7 thousand hectares of grassland, second-generation spring breeding. Northern and 283.3 thousand hectares of shrub (Figure locust swarms migrated to summer breeding 1). areas in Indo-Pakistan border, and some of The results showed that, from July to the locust swarms in Yemen migrated to northern end of September 2020, Desert Locust in Somalia, further increasing the number of Somalia harmed about 1266.1 thousand locust swarms in northern Somalia. The results hectares of vegetation area, including 2.9 showed that, by the end of July 2020, Desert thousand hectares of cropland, 189.1 thousand Locust in Somalia harmed about 604.6 hectares of grassland, and 1074.1 thousand thousand hectares of vegetation area, including hectares of shrub, accounting for 3.0%, 4.9% 1.8 thousand hectares of cropland, 147.4 and 2.4% of the total cropland, grassland, and thousand hectares of grassland, and 455.4 shrub in Somalia, respectively. The affected thousand hectares of shrub. In August 2020, areas are mainly located in the central and with rainfall, locust swarms continued to mature, northern parts of Somalia. Among them, lay eggs, and reproduce in northern Somalia. Galguduud has the largest damaged area of The northern locust swarms continued to 362.9 thousand hectares; followed by Mudug, migrate eastward, with a population decline. with damaged area as 348.3 thousand - 55 - Page 3 hectares; and then followed by Woqooyi wind, the locust swarms in northern Somalia

Galbeed, Sanaag, Awdal, with damaged area will migrate to the southern Somalia and as 278.7, 115.7, 68.8 thousand hectares eastern Ethiopia, and are expected to reach respectively. The affected area of Bari in the Kenya in November; meanwhile, locust swarms north was 20.6 thousand hectares, and the in Yemen will also migrate across the Gulf of affected area of Nugaal was 18.2 thousand Aden to northern Somalia. October to hectares, in Togdheer was 18.2 thousand November is an important planting season or hectares and in Hiiraan was 17.9 thousand growing season of crops in Somalia. Without hectares. Sool has less affected areas of 16.8 effective control, the locust plague will continue thousand hectares. to converge and migrate, which may bring a

The comprehensive analysis showed that, heavy blow to the agricultural production in in October 2020, affected by the northward Somalia.

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (July to September 2020)

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Monitoring and to increase, and some locust swarms spread to assessment of Desert the coast of the Gulf of Aden and the northern

Locust in Yemen part of the Red Sea coast. Results showed that, In July 2020, along with rainfall, desert by the end of September 2020, Desert Locust locusts continued to reproduce in the interior in Yemen newly harmed about 166.9 thousand and coastal areas of Yemen, and some locust hectares of vegetation area, including 26.4 swarms migrated to northern Somalia and thousand hectares of cropland, 14.7 thousand northeastern Ethiopia. The results showed that, hectares of grassland, and 125.8 thousand by the end of July 2020, Desert Locust in hectares of shrub (Figure 2). Yemen harmed about 660.6 thousand hectares The results showed that, from July to the of vegetation area, including 180.5 thousand end of September 2020, Desert Locust in hectares of cropland, 78.5 thousand hectares Yemen harmed about 1157.1 thousand of grassland, and 401.6 thousand hectares of hectares of vegetation area, including 270.7 shrub. In August 2020, with heavy rains, locust thousand hectares of cropland, 123.2 thousand reproduction accelerated. The locust breeding hectares of grassland, and 763.2 thousand area spread to the southern Gulf of Aden coast hectares of shrub, accounting for 26.8%, 24.1% and the western Red Sea coast, which further and 13.5% of the total cropland, grassland, and increased the number of locust populations in shrub in Yemen, respectively. The affected Yemen. Some of the locust swarms reached areas are mainly located in the central part of the northern coast of the Red Sea. Because the Al-Hudaydah province (with affected area of vegetation on the southern coast and the Red 414.7 thousand hectares), the central part of Sea coast is less distributed, the vegetation Hajjah province (with affected area of 196.8 damage area is relatively small. The results thousand hectares), the eastern Ibb province showed that, by the end of August 2020, Desert (with affected area of 102.9 thousand hectares), Locust in Yemen newly harmed about 329.6 the eastern part of Ta’izz province (with thousand hectares of vegetation area, including affected area of 88.1 thousand hectares), the 63.8 thousand hectares of cropland, 30.0 western part of Lahij province (with affected thousand hectares of grassland, and 235.8 area of 83.6 thousand hectares), the thousand hectares of shrub. In September southwestern part of Ad-Dāli province (with 2020, the number of locust swarms continued affected area of 55.8 thousand hectares), the - 57 - Page 5 southern part of Hadramawt Province (with 0.4 thousand hectares, respectively. affected area of 40.7 thousand hectares), the The comprehensive analysis showed that, southern part of Al-Mahrah Province (with in October 2020, Desert Locusts in Yemen will affected area of 35.8 thousand hectares), the continue to reproduce, and the number of

Sa'dah Province (with affected area of 35.5 locust swarms will continue to increase. The thousand hectares), the northern Al-Mahwīt locust swarms along the Red Sea coast in province (with affected area of 23.9 thousand western Yemen are expected to migrate hectares), the central San'ā province (with northward to the western coast of Saudi Arabia affected area of 19.3 thousand hectares),the from October to November; meanwhile, the western part of Abyān province (with affected locust swarms along the southern coast will area of 16.9 thousand hectares). In addition, migrate across the Gulf of Aden to northern eastern Al-Baydā, southeastern Amrān, central Somalia. October to November is the important

Dhamār, western Raimah, western Al-Jawf, the harvest season of sorghum and other crops in central part of Ma'rib province, the southern Yemen. If the locusts could not be controlled part of Shabwah province and the eastern part effectively, the locust plague will continue, of Aden province have less affected areas, with which may bring a heavy blow to the damaged area as 8.8, 8.7, 6.7, 5.6, 5.2, 4.3, 3.4, agricultural and pastoral production in Yemen.

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Yemen (July to September 2020)

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Binyuan Ren, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong National Natural Science Foundation of China Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Jadu Dash.

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September 2020

No.11 Total: 11

Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Ethiopia will continue with summer breeding. research team constructed the ‘Vegetation Due to the impact of rainfall, the number of pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting locusts will continue to grow; locusts in system’, which could regularly release northwestern Kenya will stop migrating north thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. due to changes in wind direction and the

This report focuses on the latest possibility of locusts moving south from development of Desert Locust monitoring and Ethiopia and Somalia to Kenya. At the same loss assessment in Ethiopia and Kenya from time, with the impact of short-term rainfall,

July to August. The results show that, from July locust swarms in Kenya is expected to increase to the end of August 2020, the Desert Locust from September to October. The period from harmed about another 1668.5 thousand September to October coincides with the hectares of vegetation area in Ethiopian, and important crop growing or harvesting season in about 907.1 thousand hectares in Kenya. From Ethiopia and Kenya. If not properly controlled, the Desert Locust will continue raging, posing a

- 60 - Page 2 major threat to agricultural and pasture to increase. By the end of August, the Desert production of these two countries. It is Locust harmed about another 724.7 thousand necessary to continue the dynamic monitoring hectares of vegetation area in Ethiopia and early warning of the intercontinental Desert (including 162.3 thousand hectares of farmland,

Locust plague, and organize joint prevention 357.5 thousand hectares of grassland, and and control in multiple countries to ensure the 204.9 thousand hectares of shrubs) (Figure 1). safety of agricultural and pasture production as The results show that from July to August well as regional stability. The detailed research 2020, the Desert Locust harmed another results are shown below. 1668.5 thousand hectares of vegetation area in Monitoring and total in Ethiopia, including 379.4 thousand assessment of Desert hectares of farmland, 634.0 thousand hectares

Locust in Ethiopia of grassland, and 655.1 thousand hectares of In July 2020, locusts in eastern Ethiopia shrub, accounting for 1.6%, 3.6% and 0.9% of experienced second-generation spring the total area of the country’s farmland, breeding. Some locust swarms in northwestern grassland and shrub respectively. The harmed Kenya migrated to southern Ethiopia. The areas mainly located in the northern and locusts in the northern and eastern parts eastern parts of Ethiopia, among which the Afar continued to mature, lay eggs and reproduce, region in the northern Ethiopia has the largest expanding the number of locust swarms in damaged area of 685.3 thousand hectares, Ethiopia. Monitoring results show that until the followed by Somali in the east, with damaged end of July, the Desert Locust harmed about area of 324.3 thousand hectares, Tigray in the another 943.8 thousand hectares of vegetation northwest, and the Southern Nations area in Ethiopia (including 217.1 thousand Nationalities and People Region (SNNPR) in hectares of farmland, 276.5 thousand hectares the south, with newly-harmed areas of 177.6 of grassland, and 450.2 thousand hectares of thousand hectares and 177.2 thousand shrubs). In August, some locust swarms in hectares respectively; the damaged areas of Ethiopia migrated to southern Ethiopia. Some Oromiya in the center increased by 154.1 locust swarms in Yemen migrated to the thousand hectares, the newly-harmed area of northeastern part of Ethiopia. Combined with Amhara in the northwest was 148.5 thousand rainfall, the number of locust swarms continued hectares, and the newly-harmed area of - 61 - Page 3

Gambela in the west was the smallest, 1.5 period from September to October coincides thousand hectares. with the important crop growing or harvesting

Comprehensive analysis shows that the season in Ethiopia. If not properly controlled, locust swarms in northern Ethiopia will continue the Desert Locust Plague will continue, posing summer breeding from September to October major threat to agricultural and pasture

2020. With the impact of rainfall, the Desert production of the two countries.

Locust swarms will continue to grow. The

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (July to August 2020)

Monitoring and southern Ethiopia. Combined with the local ground assessment of Desert and aerial control efforts, the number of Desert

Locust in Kenya Locust in Kenya has significantly decreased. The In July 2020, the second-generation spring results show that, in July 2020, the Desert Locust breeding of Desert Locusts in northwestern Kenya harmed another 506.4 thousand hectares of gradually stopped. Part of the local locust swarms vegetation areas in Kenya (including 16.8 thousand migrated northwest to the summer breeding areas in hectares of farmland, 248.4 thousand hectares of central Sudan, and part of them migrated north to grassland, and 241.2 thousand hectares of shrub). In - 62 - Page 4

August, locust swarms in the northwest continued hectares, and Western Province in the southwest, moving northward. The number of locust swarms 7.2 thousand hectares. The newly harmed area was continued to decrease. Although there were still a smaller in other provinces. The harmed areas were small number of locust swarms in some areas, the 400.0 hectares in Coast Province, 300.0 hectares in damaged area significantly reduced. In August 2020, Central Province, and 200.0 hectares in North the Desert Locust harmed another 400.7 thousand Eastern Province. hectares in Kenya (including 28.8 thousand hectares Comprehensive analysis shows that in of farmland, 165.9 thousand hectares of grassland, September 2020, the locust swarms in northwestern and 206.0 thousand hectares of shrub) (Figure 2). Kenya begin to mature, and the locust swarms

The results show that from July to August begin to lay eggs. As the temperature is suitable for

2020, the Desert Locust harmed another 907.1 the development of locusts and accompanied by thousand hectares of vegetation areas in total in rainfall, it is expected that from September to

Kenya, including 45.6 thousand hectares of October, the number of locust swarms in farmland, 414.3 thousand hectares of grassland, and northwestern Kenya will increase. At the same time,

447.2 thousand hectares of shrub, accounting for locust swarms in Ethiopia and Somalia may migrate

0.9%, 2.1% and 1.3% of the total area of the to Kenya with the southerly wind. The period from country’s farmland, grassland and shrub, September to October coincides with important respectively. The harmed areas mainly located in crop growing or harvesting season in Kenya. If the the northwest. Among them, Rift Valley Province in locusts couldn’t be controlled effectively, the locust the west has the largest newly harmed area of 662.0 plague will continue, which may bring a heavy thousand hectares, followed by the Eastern blow to the agricultural and pasture production in

Province in the central part, 237.0 thousand Kenya.

- 63 - Page 5

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (July to August 2020)

- 64 - Page 6

FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Yuying Jiang, Binyuan Ren, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Dongmei Yan, Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Yubin Lan, Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Zhanhong Ma, Yilin Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Wu, Feng Zhang, Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong National Natural Science Foundation of China Liang, Yanbo Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Ruiliang Pu, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Jadu Dash.

- 65 -

August 2020

No.10 Total: 10

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Pakistan 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Monitoring and assessment of Desert GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series Locust in India 3 Monitoring and assessment of Desert in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Locust in Nepal 5 self-developed models and algorithms for Contact us 8

Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Desert Locust invaded Nepal on June 26, 2020, research team constructed the ‘Vegetation it has harmed about 70.1 thousand hectares of pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting vegetation in the territory. At present, locusts in system’, which could regularly release the summer breeding area on the thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. Indo-Pakistan border continue multi-generation

This report focuses on the dynamic update breeding. It is expected that the first generation of Desert Locust monitoring and loss of summer locust swarms will be formed in assessment in Pakistan, India, and Nepal. The mid-August and the second generation of results showed that, in July 2020, Desert locust swarms will be formed in September.

Locust in Pakistan newly harmed about 628.3 The density of locusts in Nepal is relatively low thousand hectares of vegetation area, Desert and is not expected to cause major damage.

Locust in India newly harmed about 957.7 The period from August to September thousand hectares of vegetation area. Since coincides with the important crops growing

- 66 - Page 2 season or harvesting season in Pakistan and area, including 340.5 thousand hectares of

India. If not properly controlled, locusts will cropland, 287.8 thousand hectares of bring a major threat to agricultural and pasture grassland, accounting for 1.3% and 3.0% of the production. It is necessary to continue the total cropland, grassland in Pakistan, monitoring and early warning of the respectively. Among them, Sindh Province has intercontinental Desert Locust plague, and the largest damaged area of 442.4 thousand organize joint prevention and control in multiple hectares; followed by Punjab, with damaged countries, ensuring the safety of agricultural area of 143.1 thousand hectares; while and pasture production, as well as regional Baluchistan Province has the least affected stability. areas, with damaged area of 42.8 thousand Monitoring and hectares (Figure 1). assessment of Desert The comprehensive analysis showed that,

Locust in Pakistan in August 2020, the number of locusts in In July 2020, Desert Locusts in southwestern Pakistan will decrease, and southwestern Pakistan continued to migrate to locust swarms in Nepal and northern India the summer breeding area on the returning to the Indo-Pakistan border will Indo-Pakistan border. There were still a small continue hatching and breeding. The number of number of locust swarms in the southwest locusts on the Indo-Pakistan border will Pakistan, and the Desert Locusts on the increase. It is expected that the first generation Indo-Pakistan border hatched and reproduced of summer locust swarms will form in in large numbers. Meanwhile, locusts in mid-August, and the second generation of Somalia moved to the Indo-Pakistan border for summer locust swarms will form in September. summer breeding. The number of locusts August to September is the important growing continues to increase, and the size of locust season or harvesting season of crops in swarms continues to grow. Pakistan. If the locusts couldn’t be controlled The results showed that, by the end of July effectively, the locust plague will continue, 2020, Desert Locust in Pakistan newly harmed which may bring a heavy blow to the about 628.3 thousand hectares of vegetation agricultural production in Pakistan.

- 67 - Page 3

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Pakistan (July 2020)

Monitoring and area, including 510.7 thousand hectares of assessment of Desert cropland, 246.5 thousand hectares of

Locust in India grassland, and 200.5 thousand hectares of In July 2020, the Desert locusts that shrubland, accounting for 0.3%, 0.5%, and migrated from southwestern Pakistan to 1.1% of the total cropland, grassland, and western India continued to hatch and their shrubland in India, respectively. Among them, populations continued to increase. The locusts Rajasthan has the largest damaged area of continued summer breeding and continued to 643.9 thousand hectares; followed by Haryana, extend eastward to the northern states of India. with damaged area of 120.6 thousand hectares; A small number of locust swarms migrated to while Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and southern Nepal. In mid-to-late July, locust Gujarat have less affected areas, with swarms in Nepal and northern India returned to damaged area of 92.0, 75.1, 26.1 thousand western India. hectares, respectively (Figure 2). The results showed that, by the end of July In this study, Planet data with a spatial 2020, Desert Locust in India newly harmed resolution of 3 m in July 2019 and July 2020 about 957.7 thousand hectares of vegetation were also used to monitor the Desert Locusts

- 68 - Page 4 damage in heavily affected vegetation areas in 11.7%, and 31.3% of the total area of grassland, central Rajasthan, India (Figure 3). The study cropland and shrubland in the study area, area is located in the central region of respectively. The results show that Desert

Rajasthan, about 73 km to the west of Jodhpur locusts can cause great loss to vegetation, and and about 59 km to the southeast of Bealva. its outbreaks will seriously affect the agricultural

The vegetation types include grassland, production and food security in India. shrubland, and cropland, with a total area of The comprehensive analysis showed that,

29.0 thousand hectares, including cropland in August 2020, locust swarms in western India

12.8 thousand hectares, 14.6 thousand will continue hatching and breeding, and the hectares of grassland, and 1.6 thousand number of locusts will increase. It is expected hectares of shrubland. The monitoring results that the first and second generations of showed that, the affected area of vegetation in summer locust swarms will be formed in the study area was 3.6 thousand hectares, mid-August and t September, respectively. accounting for 12.4% of the total area of the August to September is the important planting study area. Among them, the grassland was season, growing season, or harvesting season affected the most severely with 1.6 thousand of crops in India. If the locusts couldn’t be hectares, while the affected cropland is 1.5 controlled effectively, the locust plague will thousand hectares and shrubland is 0.5 continue, which may bring a heavy blow to the thousand hectares, accounting for 11.0%, agricultural production in India.

- 69 - Page 5

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in India (July 2020)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of India based on Planet images

Monitoring and the Indo-Pakistan border migrated to northern assessment of Desert India with strong southerly winds and reached

Locust in Nepal the territory of Bhairahawa in southern Nepal In late June 2020, Desert locusts around on the border with Uttar Pradesh in India on the

- 70 - Page 6

26th, and spread in the central lowlands of Nepal, respectively. Among them, Lumbini

Nepal. Some locust swarms reached Butwal District has the largest damaged area of 23.3 and Kathmandu at the foot of the Himalayas on thousand hectares; followed by Narayani the 27th and 30th respectively. In early July, District, with damaged area of 19.4 thousand affected by the southerly wind, locusts on the hectares; the third is Rabuti District with border between India and Pakistan continued damaged area of 13.8 thousand hectares; to migrate to Nepal and reached the central while Janakpur, Bagmati and Perry have less plains of Nepal. In mid-to-late July, the locust affected areas, with damaged area of 10.9, 1.4, swarms in Nepal returned to the Indo-Pakistan 1.3 thousand hectares, respectively (Figure 4). border. The comprehensive analysis showed that,

Monitoring results showed that, by the end in August 2020, due to the increasing of July 2020, Desert Locust in Nepal harmed population in the summer breeding area on the about 70.1 thousand hectares of vegetation Indo-Pakistan border, a small number of locust area, including 59.0 thousand hectares of swarms will migrate to southern Nepal, which is cropland, 7.1 thousand hectares of grassland, not expected to cause major damage. However, and 4.0 thousand hectares of shrubland, continuous monitoring is still needed to prevent accounting for 1.5%, 0.5%, and 0.3% of the Desert Locusts from invading Tibet and other total cropland, grassland, and shrubland in regions of China with the south wind.

- 71 - Page 7

Figure 4 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Nepal (July 2020)

- 72 - Page 8

FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

- 73 -

July 2020

No.9 Total: 9

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Migration path and prediction of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, locust in India 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Monitoring and assessment of Desert GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series Locust in Pakistan 5 in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Monitoring and assessment of Desert Locust in Ethiopia 6 self-developed models and algorithms for Monitoring and assessment of Desert Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Locust in Kenya 8 research team constructed the ‘Vegetation Monitoring and assessment of Desert pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting Locust in Somalia 10 Monitoring and assessment of Desert system’, which could regularly release Locust in Yemen 12 thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. Contact us 14 This report updates the assessment of endangering the agriculture and animal

Desert Locust plague in six key Asian and husbandry of these countries. By the end of

African countries, and forecasts the possible June 2020, Desert Locusts caused great losses breeding areas and migration paths from July of the vegetation areas, with harmed areas to August 2020 in India, Ethiopia, and Kenya. about 1058.3 thousand hectares in India, 792.9

The results showed that the Desert Locusts are thousand hectares in Pakistan, 1137.5 mainly distributed in India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, thousand hectares in Ethiopia, 936.8 thousand

Kenya, Yemen, and Somalia, severely hectares in Kenya, 780.0 thousand hectares in

- 74 - Page 2

Somalia, and about 763.5 thousand hectares of Rajasthan locusts continued to develop and vegetation area in Yemen. reproduce, gradually spreading to the

At present, locusts in Asia and Africa are surrounding area, and the number of locusts experiencing multi-generation breeding. The further increased; In September, the second period from July to August coincides with the generation of Desert Locusts began to breed, important crops sowing season, growing and India implemented ground control of season, or harvesting season in Asian and locusts in Rajasthan; In October, as climatic

African countries. If not properly controlled, conditions became drier than before, some locusts will bring a major threat to agricultural locusts began to move from India to spring and pasture production. It is necessary to breeding areas in southwestern Pakistan and continue the monitoring and early warning of southeastern Iran; From November to the intercontinental Desert Locust plague, and December, the third generation of locusts on organize joint prevention and control in multiple the Indo-Pakistan border began to multiply, and countries, ensuring the safety of agricultural the number of locusts gradually increased. and pasture production and protecting regional Some locust groups moved across the Arabian stability. Sea to the south of Oman. Migration path and In January 2020, although there were still prediction of Desert locust groups in the territory, the number of

locust in India locust groups had gradually declined due to In July-September 2018, rainfall on the control operations and migration to southern Indo-Pakistan border created a suitable Iran, eastern Oman, and southern Yemen. ecological environment for the breeding of From February to April, the number of locusts Desert Locusts. Scattered Desert Locusts decreased due to the impact of control began to appear in the west of Rajasthan, India. operations and migration; In May, the spring In June 2019, local locusts in western breeding locusts in western Pakistan began to Rajasthan began summer breeding, spawning, move towards the Indo-Pakistan border. The hatching, and forming early locust swarms. At locust swarms in western Rajasthan continued the same time, locusts in Pakistan and to gather and expand, and continued to move southern Iran continued to move towards the to the central regions such as Madhya Pradesh Indo-Pakistan border; From July to August, and Maharashtra with the westerly wind

- 75 - Page 3 brought by the cyclone Amphan in the Bay of affected area), central Madhya Pradesh (with

Bengal; In June, the locusts on the 176.6 thousand hectares of affected area),

Iran/Pakistan border continued to migrate to Punjab (with 23.6 thousand hectares of the Indo-Pakistan border for summer breeding, affected area), as well as northern Maharashtra while the locusts in the middle began to migrate (with 10.1 thousand hectares of affected area), to northern India with strong south winds and while Uttar Pradesh and Haryana have small arrived on the 26th in Bhairahawa, southern affected areas (Figure2).

Nepal, bordering Uttar Pradesh, then spread in The comprehensive analysis showed that, the central lowlands of Nepal. Some locust In July 2020, locusts in India will continue to swarms reached Butwal and Kathmandu at the hatch. Due to the southerly wind, they may foot of the Himalayas on the 27th and 30th continue to move northward to Nepal and pose respectively (Figure1). a potential threat to Tibet, China. In mid-to-late

The results showed that, by the end of July, locusts in northern India are expected to

June 2020, Desert Locust in India harmed return to western India before the onset of the about 1058.3 thousand hectares of vegetation summer monsoon; From July to August, locusts area, including 450.9 thousand hectares of in southern Iran will continue to migrate to cropland, 320.6 thousand hectares of western India for summer breeding. July to grassland and 286.8 thousand hectares of August is the important growing season of corn, shrub, accounting for 0.2%, 0.7% and 1.6% of rice, and other crops in India. If the locusts the total cropland, grassland, and shrub in India, couldn’t be controlled effectively, the locust respectively. The harmed areas are mainly plague will continue, which may bring a heavy located in southern Rajasthan (with 630.7 blow to the agricultural and pasture production thousand hectares of affected area), northern in India.

Gujarat (with 207.6 thousand hectares of

- 76 - Page 4

Figure 1 The breeding area, migration path of Desert Locust in India (June 2019-August 2020)

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in India (June 2020)

- 77 - Page 5

Monitoring and area of 238.6 thousand hectares; while assessment of Desert Baluchistan Province (32.3 thousand hectares),

Locust in Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (31.7 In May 2020, the Desert Locusts in thousand hectares), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa western Pakistan continued their spring Province (56.9 thousand hectares) have less breeding and began to move eastward to the affected areas (Figure3). summer breeding area on the Indo-Pakistan The comprehensive analysis showed that, border. At the same time, locusts in northern In July 2020, the locust swarms breeding in Pakistan continued to multiply and colonize. In spring in southern Iran, southwestern Pakistan, June, the spring breeding locust swarms in and northern Somalia will continue to migrate to Pakistan continued to move towards the the summer breeding area along the Indo-Pakistan border and gradually spread into Indo-Pakistan border. In August, due to the end India. of the spring breeding, the number of locusts in The results showed that, by the end of southwestern Pakistan will decrease. Desert June 2020, Desert Locust in Pakistan harmed locusts along the Indo-Pakistan border will about 792.9 thousand hectares of vegetation hatch and breed in July. It is expected that the area, including 455.2 thousand hectares of first generation of summer locust swarms will cropland and 337.7 thousand hectares of form in August. July to August is the important grassland, accounting for 1.8% and 3.5% of the growing season of crops in Pakistan. If the total cropland and grassland in Pakistan locusts couldn’t be controlled effectively, the respectively. Among them, Sindh Province has locust plague will continue, which may bring a the largest damaged area of 433.4 thousand heavy blow to the agricultural and pasture hectares; followed by Punjab, with damaged production in Pakistan.

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Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Pakistan (June 2020)

Monitoring and Desert Locust in Ethiopia harmed about 1137.5 assessment of Desert thousand hectares of vegetation area (including

Locust in Ethiopia 304.8 thousand hectares of cropland, 364.5 From late May to early June 2020, the thousand hectares of grassland, and 468.2 Desert Locusts in Ethiopia mainly distributed in thousand hectares of shrub), accounting for Somali, eastern Oromiya, Southern Afar, and 1.3%, 2.1% and 0.6% of the total cropland, northeastern Amhara. In middle June, the grassland, and shrub, respectively. The harmed locusts swarm in northern Ethiopia migrated to areas are mainly located in eastern Oromiya Amhara, Tigray, Afar and Somali in eastern with an area of 250.7 thousand hectares, Ethiopia; meanwhile, locust swarm in southern southern nations, southern tribes and southern Yemen spread to Afar. In late June, the number with an area of 243.8 thousand hectares, of locusts in Ethiopia continued to increase due northwestern Somali with an area of 277.1 to local breeding and locust supply from Yemen, thousand hectares, eastern and northern Tigray the locust population continued to grow in size with an area of 195.6 thousand hectares, (Figure4). eastern Afar with an area of 132.0 thousand The results showed that by the end of June, hectares. The affected areas in Amhara and

- 79 - Page 7

Gambela are relatively small (Figure5). halfway. The period from July to August is an

The comprehensive analysis showed that, important growing season for Ethiopian crops. in July 2020, the Desert Locusts in Ethiopia will If the Desert Locusts are not effectively continue to breed and spread. It is estimated controlled, the locust plague will continue, that the locust swarm will move westward to which may cause a heavy blow to the central Sudan and northeastward to the agricultural and animal husbandry production in

Indo-Pakistan border for summer breeding in Ethiopia.

July-August, and may spread to Somalia

Figure 4 The breeding area, migration path of Desert Locust in Ethiopia (June-Aug 2020)

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Figure 5 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (June 2020)

Monitoring and swarms, and kept to migrate to the Northwest assessment of Desert (Figure6).

Locust in Kenya The monitoring results showed that by the In late May 2020, Desert Locusts in Kenya end of June 2020, the vegetation area harmed continued the spring breeding; in early June, by locust in Kenya had reached 936.8 thousand the locusts were mainly distributed in the Rift hectares, including 86.7 thousand hectares of Valley Province and northern of the Eastern cropland, 492.8 thousand hectares of Province of Kenya, mostly mature locusts; in grassland and 357.3 thousand hectares of mid-June, some locusts migrated shrubs, accounting for 1.7%, 2.5%, and 1.0% of northwestward to the summer breeding area in the total cropland, grassland, and shrub in southern Sudan through South Sudan and Kenya, respectively. The damaged areas were northeast Uganda, and some locust swarms mainly located in the central and northern part migrated northward and northeastward to the of Rift Valley Province (with 504.1 thousand northeast and northwest Ethiopia; in late June, hectares of affected area), the central part of locusts continued to breed and formed more northeast province (with 262.0 thousand

- 81 - Page 9 hectares of affected area), and the northwest August. It coincides with the important growing and east part of eastern province (with 170.8 season of crops in Kenya, which makes the thousand hectares of affected area) (Figure7). control of Desert Locust in urgency. It is

The comprehensive analysis shows that necessary to carry out continuous monitoring

Desert Locusts in Kenya will continue to breed and joint prevention and control among in July 2020. It is expected that locusts will countries to ensure local agricultural and continue to migrate to the northwest to central animal husbandry production and food security.

Sudan for summer breeding from July to

Figure 6 The breeding area, migration path of Desert Locust in Kenya (June-August 2020)

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Figure 7 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (June 2020)

Monitoring and for 1.6%, 4.0% and 1.4% of the total cropland, assessment of Desert grassland, and shrub in Somalia, respectively.

Locust in Somalia The harmed area are mainly distributed in west From May to June 2020, the Desert Mudug with an area of 218.3 thousand Locusts in Somalia continued their spring hectares, east Togdheer with an area of 143.9 breeding locally. The locusts continued to thousand hectares, northwest Woqooyi incubate to form new locust colonies, which are galbeed with an area of 140.9 thousand mainly located in the northwestern, northern hectares, south Sool with an area of 113.6 coastal and central Somalia and the border with thousand hectares, south Awdal with an area of Ethiopia. The result shows that Desert Locust 79.6 thousand hectares, north Galguduud with in Somalia harmed about 780 thousand an area of 45.2 thousand hectares, north Bari hectares of vegetation area by the end of June with an area of 20.8 thousand hectares, and (including 1.6 thousand hectares of cropland, south Nugaal with an area of 11.4 thousand 154.7 thousand hectares of grassland and hectares. In addition, part of Sanaag and 623.7 thousand hectares of shrub), accounting Hiiraan was slightly harmed by Desert Locust

- 83 - Page 11 for 5.6 and 0.7 thousand hectares, respectively. along with the southwest monsoon towards the

The comprehensive analysis showed that, summer breeding district located on the in July 2020, the Desert Locusts in Somalia will Indo-Pakistan border. The period from July to continue to breed. It is estimated that from July August coincides with the important growing or to August, the Desert Locusts in southwestern harvesting season in Somalia. If not effectively

Yemen will move across the Gulf of Aden to controlled, the locust plague will continue to northwestern Somalia, and the locusts in erupt, which may cause a heavy blow to eastern Ethiopia will spread to central Somalia. agricultural and animal husbandry production in

Meanwhile, the locusts in Somalia will migrate Somalia.

Figure 8 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (June 2020)

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Monitoring and Dhamār with an area of 74.2 thousand hectares, assessment of Desert middle and western Ibb with an area of 62.5

Locust in Yemen thousand hectares, most of Ad-Dāli with an In early May 2020, the Desert Locusts of area of 59.0 thousand hectares, eastern Yemen were scattered on the southern coast Al-Mahwīt with an area of 30.3 thousand and the central region. Subsequently, the hectares, eastern Hajjah with an area of 26.3 locusts continued to multiply and spread, and thousand hectares, southern Hadramawt with formed multiple mature locust colonies by the an area of 24.3 thousand hectares, southern end of May. There were also locust colonies on Al-Baydāwith an area of 23.3 thousand the west coast of Yemen. The locusts continued hectares, western San'āwith an area of 23.0 spring breeding locally in June, continuing to thousand hectares, western Abyān with an area incubate to form new locust groups. The locust of 17.5 thousand hectares, and southern groups on the west and southwest coasts Al-Mahrah with an area of 10.3 thousand continue to expand. Some locust groups move hectares. The affected areas in middle Ma'rib, southward to northeastern Ethiopia. At the end western Al-Jawf, southern Shabwah, southern of June, locusts along the Red Sea continued Raimah, eastern Adan, and Al-Hudaydah are to breed and form new locust swarms. relatively small, with affected area of 4.5, 3.6, The results showed that by the end of June, 2.6, 2.5, 0.4, and 0.3 thousand hectares, Desert Locust in Yemen harmed about 763.5 respectively (Figure9). thousand hectares of vegetation area (including The comprehensive analysis showed that, 143.8 thousand hectares of cropland, 47.9 in July 2020, locusts in Yemen will continue to thousand hectares of grassland, and 571.8 breed. The locust swarms in southwest Yemen thousand hectares of shrub), accounting for will move across the Gulf of Aden to 14.3%, 8.3% and 10.1% of the total cropland, northwestern Somalia and northeastern grassland, and shrub, respectively. The harmed Ethiopia. The period from July to August is the areas are mainly located in eastern Ta'izz with important growing or harvesting season of an area of 215.5 thousand hectares, western crops in Yemen. If not effectively controlled, the Amran with an area of 101.7 thousand hectares, locust plague will continue to erupt, which may northwestern Lahij with an area of 81.7 cause a heavy blow to agricultural and animal thousand hectares, middle and southern husbandry production in Yemen.

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Figure 9 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Yemen (June 2020)

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Main contributors Chinese English This report was released by Professor Wenjiang The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s Forecasting system are available under: research team in Aerospace Information Research http://www.rscropmap.com/ Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Legal Notice Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Neither the Aerospace Information Research Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, institute is responsible for the use which might be Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, made of the publication. Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, Disclaimer Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, analyses and conclusions in the report do not Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing report and indicate the source. However, any Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong the report do not represent the views of the Team. Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. The data published in this report are for reference Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, only. The Team does not bear any legal Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo responsibility arising from the use of the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo National Natural Science Foundation of China Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash. 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Technology (Z191100001119089), National special

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June 2020 No.8 Total: 8

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Migration path and prediction of field data, and remote sensing data (such as Desert locust in Africa and Asia 2 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat Monitoring and assessment of Desert Locust in Yemen 3 series in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Contact us 7 self-developed models and algorithms for West Africa to start Summer breeding. From Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the April to May 2020, Desert Locust in Yemen research team constructed the ‘Vegetation harmed about 529.3 thousand hectares of pests and diseases monitoring and vegetation area (including 85.4 thousand forecasting system’, which could regularly hectares of cropland, 27.8 thousand hectares release thematical maps and reports on of grassland, and 416.1 thousand hectares of Desert Locust. shrub), accounting for 8.5%, 4.8% and 7.4% This report focuses on forecast of of the total cropland, grassland, and shrub, possible breeding areas and migration paths respectively. from June to July 2020 and the locust plagues At present, locusts in Asia and Africa are in Yemen. The results showed that, the Desert multi-generation breeding. The period from Locusts are mainly distributed in the spring June to July coincides with the important crops breeding areas of Indo-Pakistan border, the sowing season, growing season or harvesting west of Pakistan, the coastal and inland areas season in Asian and African countries. If not of the Arabian Peninsula, southern Ethiopia properly controlled, locusts will bring a major and most of Kenya at the moment, and has threat to agricultural and pasture production. It begun to move to central Sudan, is necessary to continue the monitoring and Indo-Pakistan border and the countries of early warning of the intercontinental Desert

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Locust plague, and organize joint prevention locust in the northern Arabian Peninsula and control in multiple countries, ensuring the spread to central Iraq, and the density of safety of agricultural and pasture production, locusts along Iran/Pakistan border continued as well as regional stability. to increase. In May, locust eggs continued to Migration path and incubate and breed. In the middle and late of prediction of Desert that month, locust swarms began to migrate locust in Africa and Asia from spring breeding areas such as Kenya, In February 2020, the Desert Locusts in Ethiopia and western Pakistan to summer east Africa and southwest Asia were mainly breeding areas such as central Sudan, distributed on the Indo-Pakistan border, in the southwestern Saudi Arabia and Indo-Pakistan west of Pakistan, coastal and inland areas of border. At the end of the month, locust swarms the Arabian Peninsula (coastal and inland moved eastward from the Indo-Pakistan areas of eastern and western Saudi Arabia, border to northern India (Figure 1). southeastern Kuwait, eastern Oman, western At present, locust breeding is underway in and southern Yemen), southern Ethiopia and most areas. It is expected that in early June, most of Kenya. In addition, there were small locust swarms in eastern and northern Saudi groups of locusts in northeastern Afghanistan, Arabia will move to summer breeding areas, southern Iran, northeastern Sudan, eastern such as southern Yemen and central Sudan, Eritrea, northwestern Somalia, southern South and locust swarms in eastern Oman will Sudan, northeastern Uganda and northern continue to migrate to eastern Yemen. From Tanzania. mid-late June to July, locusts in spring In early March 2020, locust swarms in breeding areas such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Kuwait continued to spread to southeastern Somalia will move to central Sudan and Iraq, while locust swarms along eastern coast Indo-Pakistan border for summer breeding. of Saudi Arabia moved to the western coast of Meanwhile, locusts in southern Iran will move the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, to western Pakistan, and locusts in northern locust swarms in southern Ethiopian began to India will continue to breed and spread move northward. In mid-March, immature eastwards. The period from June to July locusts were found along Red Sea coast in coincides with the important harvesting southeastern Egypt. At the end of March, season in Pakistan and India, the sowing immature locusts appeared on the east coast season, growing season and the harvesting of Djibouti. In April, large amounts of season in the Horn of Africa countries. If the precipitation occurred in East Africa, and locust plague continues, agricultural and locusts continued to breed in spring and pasture production, national economy and mature into groups. The locust in Ethiopia and people's livelihood will be seriously Somalia continued moving north, while the threatened.

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Figure 1 Migration path of Desert Locust in Asia and Africa (March-July 2020).

Monitoring and southern coast, the edge of Ramlat Sabatyn assessment of Desert and the plateau area north of Wadi

Locust in Yemen Hadhramaut continued to mature and lay eggs. In April 2020, in the western of Hajjah In mid-May, locusts in Saudi Arabia and Oman province, most of Al-Hudaydah province, the moved to Yemen from the north and east eastern of Ta'izz province, the southern of respectively. In late May, the number of Ad-Dāli province, the western of Lahij province locusts in southern Yemen continued to and Abyān, central Hadramawt and central increase, and the damaged area further Al-Mahrah, locusts continued their spring expanded. By the end of May, locusts in breeding. In late April, inland rainstorms and Yemen harmed about 242.0 thousand flooding promoted locust breeding. The results hectares of vegetation area, including 46.4 showed that by the end of April, locust in thousand hectares of cropland, 13.9 thousand Yemen harmed about 287.3 thousand hectares of grassland, and 181.7 thousand hectares of vegetation area, including 39.0 hectares of shrub (Fig 2). thousand hectares of cropland, 13.9 thousand The results showed that from April to May hectares of grassland, and 234.4 thousand 2020, Desert Locust in Yemen harmed about hectares of shrub. In early May, locusts in the 529.3 thousand hectares of vegetation area

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(including 85.4 thousand hectares of cropland, thousand hectares, 0.3 thousand hectares and

27.8 thousand hectares of grassland, and 0.2 thousand hectares, respectively. Yemen is

416.1 thousand hectares of shrub), a typical agro-pastoral country where 75% of

accounting for 8.5%, 4.8% and 7.4% of the its population are engaged in agriculture. The

total cropland, grassland, and shrub, locust plague has caused a huge impact on

respectively. The harmed areas are mainly local agricultural and pastoral production,

located in western and southern coastal areas which seriously threatened the local

of Yemen. Among them, the southwestern agricultural and pastoral safety and national

province of Ta'izz has the largest damage area livelihood. The domestic disaster situation is

of 106.9 thousand hectares, followed by the severe.

Al-Hudaydah province along the west coast of In this study, Planet data with a spatial

Red Sea with an area of 97.3 thousand resolution of 3m in August 2018 and August

hectares. The affected areas were 78.2 2019 were also used to monitor the Desert

thousand hectares and 74.7 thousand Locusts damage in heavily affected vegetation

hectares in Ad-Dāli and Lahij. The affected areas in central Al-Hudaydah Province of

areas of Ibb in the Midwest and Abyān in the Yemen (Figure3). The study area is located in

southern coast are 45.7 and 44.9 thousand the junction of Raimah and Al-Hudaydah,

hectares. The affected area of Dhamar is 37.6 about 15 km to the northwest of Al Mansuriyah,

thousand hectares. The affected area of and about 13 km to the southeast of Nafhan.

Al-Baydā is 20.4 thousand hectares. In middle The vegetation types are mainly grassland,

east of Hadramawt province, the affected area shrub and cropland, with a total area of 12.5

is 10.2 thousand hectares. The affected areas thousand hectares (6.2 thousand hectares of

in other provinces are relatively small. The grassland, 2.4 thousand hectares of shrub and

affected area of Al-Mahrah is 4.5 thousand 3.9 thousand hectares of cropland.) The

hectares. The affected area of Shabwah is 2.4 monitoring results showed that, the affected

thousand hectares. The affected area of area of vegetation in the study area was 1.6

Hajjah is 2.3 thousand hectares. The affected thousand hectares, accounting for 12.8% of

area of Ma’rib is 2.2 thousand hectares. The the total area of the study area. Among them,

affected areas of Al-Mahwīt, San’a, Aden and the grassland were affected the most severely

Raimah are 1.0 thousand hectares, 0.5 with 0.8 thousand hectares, while the affected

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cropland is 0.4 thousand hectares and shrub Yemen, while the locust swarms in southwest

0.4 thousand hectares, accounting for 12.9%, Yemen will migrate to the southwest cross the

10.3%, and 16.7% of the total area of Gulf of Aden to Djibouti, northwestern Somalia grassland, cropland and shrub in the study and northeastern Ethiopia. It is estimated that area, respectively. The results show that from late June to July, the locust swarms will

Desert Locusts can cause great loss to move northeast to Indo-Pakistan border for vegetation, and its outbreaks will seriously summer breeding. At present, the Desert affect the agricultural and pastoral production Locusts in Yemen continue to breed, mature and food security in Yemen. and begin to lay eggs. June is the important

The comprehensive analysis showed that, growing season of crops in Yemen. If the in June 2020, locusts in Yemen will continue locusts couldn’t be controlled effectively, the their spring breeding. The locust swarms in locust plague will continue, which may bring a eastern Saudi Arabia and northeastern Oman heavy blow to the agricultural and pasture will continue to migrate north and east of production in Yemen.

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Yemen (April to May 2020)

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Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of Yemen based on Planet images

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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May 2020 No.7 Total: 7

Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences Key laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Big Earth Data Science Engineering Project (CASEarth) Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory Key Lab of Aviation Plant Protection, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, P.R. China National Engineering Research Center for Agro-Ecological Big Data Analysis & Application Report of Monitoring and Assessment of Desert Locust in Africa and Asia Late May 2020 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Kenya and Ethiopia Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Monitoring and assessment of field data, and remote sensing data (such as Desert Locust in Kenya 2 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat Monitoring and assessment of series in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Desert Locust in Ethiopia 4 Contact us 6 self-developed models and algorithms for Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Nyanza Provinces were less affected. Desert research team constructed the ‘Vegetation Locust in Ethiopia harmed about 1654.1 pests and diseases monitoring and thousand hectares of vegetation area from forecasting system’, which could regularly April to mid-May (including 497.0 thousand release thematical maps and reports on hectares of cropland, 453.9 thousand hectares Desert Locust. of grassland and 703.2 thousand hectares of This report focuses on the damage shrub), mainly distributed in central Afar, monitoring of the Desert Locust in Kenya and western and southern Somalian, eastern Ethiopia. The result showed that from March Oromia, southern Interracial and eastern to mid-May 2020, Desert Locust in Kenya Amhara. At present, locusts in Kenya and harmed about 3359.2 thousand hectares of Ethiopia are constantly breeding and vegetation area (including 864.6 thousand spreading. The period from May to July hectares of cropland, 1393.8 thousand coincides with the important growing season hectares of grassland and 1100.8 thousand or harvesting season of wheat, corn, barley, hectares of shrub), mainly distributed in Rift millet, sorghum in these two countries. If not Valley Province and Eastern Province, while properly controlled, locusts will bring major Central, Coastal, Northeastern, Western and threats to agricultural and pasture production,

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national economy and people's livelihood. It is cropland, 497.4 thousand hectares of necessary to continue the monitoring and grassland and 539.6 thousand hectares of early warning of the intercontinental Desert shrub. In early May, mature and immature Locust plague, and organize joint prevention swarms in northern Kenya continued to and control in multiple countries, ensuring the mature, spawn and migrate to the north, and safety of agricultural and pasture production, reach the northern Marsabit. In mid-May, as well as regional stability. immature swarms appeared in the northwest Monitoring and of Kenya and some migrated to Kapoeta in the assessment of Desert southeast of South Sudan on the 14th and Locust in Kenya entered Moroto in the northeast of Uganda on In March 2020, the Desert Locusts, the 20th. 1162.3 thousand hectares (including mostly mature swarms in the south and 396.2 thousand hectares of cropland, 459.2 immature swarms in the north, were mainly thousand hectares of grassland and 306.9 located in northern and central Kenya, thousand hectares of shrub) were newly including Turkana, Samburu, Baringo, Laikipia, damaged this month (Fig 1). Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Nyeri and Nairobi in The result showed that from March to Rift Valley Province, Garissa in Eastern mid-May 2020, Desert Locust in Kenya Province. Our results showed that by the end harmed about 3359.2 thousand hectares of of March 2020, the Desert Locusts had vegetation area (including 864.6 thousand affected 1077.4 thousand hectares of hectares of cropland, 1393.8 thousand vegetation area in Kenya, including 385.9 hectares of grassland and 1100.8 thousand thousand hectares of cropland, 437.2 hectares of shrub) ， accounting for 16.4%, thousand hectares of grassland and 254.3 7.1% and 3.1% of the total cropland, thousand hectares of shrub. At the early April, grassland and shrub, respectively. Among the swarms are getting larger due to them, Rift Valley Province had the largest precipitation at the end of March, and spread affected area of 1787.5 thousand hectares westward migration. Immature swarms began And the Eastern province followed, with an to appear in West Pokot of western Kenya, damaged area of 1255.4 thousand hectares. while in Kericho, in the south, mature swarms The affected area in Central Province was developed and began to spawn. From Mid to 220.6 thousand hectares. The affected area in late March, swarms expand and hatch Coast Province was 53.2 thousand hectares. expanding swarms. And at the end of March, The Northeast Province, Nairobi Distract, swarms moved west into Uganda. By the end Western Province and Nyanza Province were of April 2020, the Desert Locusts had affected affected less seriously, at 15.0 thousand 1119.5 thousand hectares of vegetation area hectares, 12.7 thousand hectares, 9.4 in Kenya, including 82.5 thousand hectares of thousand hectares and 5.4 thousand hectares,

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Page 3 respectively. show that Desert Locusts can cause great In this study, Planet data with a spatial loss to vegetation, and its outbreaks will resolution of 3 m in March 2019 and March seriously affect the agricultural and pastoral 2020 were also used to monitor the Desert production and food security in Kenya. Locusts damage in the heavily affected The comprehensive analysis showed that, vegetation areas in the Western Province of from May to June 2020. Swarms in the Kenya. The study area is located in Shianda of north-west will continue to spread west to Kakamega, northeast side of Lake Victoria, northeastern Uganda, northwest to southern and to the west next to Mumias and Butele. South Sudan and northeast to Ethiopia. The vegetation types are mainly cropland, Between June and July, the swarms are grassland and forest, and the total area is 43.2 expected to migrate southwest to central thousand hectares. The monitoring results Sudan for summer breeding. At present, a showed that the affected area of vegetation in large number of locusts in Kenya have the study area was 5.4 thousand hectares, matured and begun lying eggs. May to July is accounting for 12.5% of the total area of the the growing season or harvesting season of study area. Among them, the cropland was barley, corn and sorghum in Kenya. It is also affected the most seriously at 3.9 thousand growing season for wheat and harvesting and hectares, the damaged grassland area was growing season for millet. If the locusts could 1.3 thousand hectares, and the affected area not be controlled effectively, the locust plague of forest was 0.2 thousand hectares, will continue, which may bring a heavy blow to accounting for 12.8%, 12.1% and 10.0% of the the agricultural and pasture production in total area of croplands, grasslands and forests Kenya. in the study area, respectively. The results

Figure 1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (March - Early-mid May 2020)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert locust damage in key areas of Kenya based on Planet images Monitoring and further expanded to 759.8 thousand hectares assessment of Desert (including 329.4 thousand hectares of Locust in Ethiopia cropland, 300.7 thousand hectares of In late March 2020, abundant rainfall grassland and 129.7 thousand hectares of provided suitable conditions for locusts shrub). breeding in Ethiopia. In early April, locusts in The result showed that from April to northern Kenya spread northward. Locusts mid-May 2020, Desert Locust in Ethiopia are increasing in SNNPR, Konso, Yabello, harmed about 1654.1 thousand hectares of Negele, Arero in southern Oromiya. In vegetation area (including 497.0 thousand mid-late April, new swarms appeared and hectares of cropland, 453.9 thousand hectares multiplied in central Oromia, Gode in southern of grassland and 703.2 thousand hectares of Somali and DireDawa and Jijjiga in the north shrub)，accounting for 2.1%, 2.6% and 1.0% of Somali. 894.3 thousand hectares (including the total cropland, grassland and shrub, 167.6 thousand hectares of cropland, 153.2 respectively. The harmed areas are mainly in thousand hectares of grassland and 573.5 the north and south of Ethiopia. Among them, thousand hectares of shrub) were newly Oromiya state had the largest harmed area of damaged this month. In early-mid May, locusts 842.2 thousand hectares. Southern states of in south spread to Afar in northwestern all ethnic groups (SNNPR) were the second Ethiopia, Somali and Ogaden in eastern most harmed, with 306.1 thousand hectares. Ethiopia. With the control operations, the Somalia ranked the third with 238.5 thousand number of swarms in south is decreasing. hectares of newly harmed areas. 214.8 Locusts in the border of DE Radhwa area and thousand hectares have been harmed in the Somali are maturing, and the affected is Afar state. The newly affected areas in Tigray

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Page 5 and Amhara were 29.8 thousand hectares and expected to migrate westward to central 22.7 thousand hectares, respectively Sudan and eastern Sahara, and migrate (Figure3). northeast to the Indo-Pakistan border for The comprehensive analysis showed that, summer breeding. At present, large numbers from late-May to June 2020, Swarms in of locusts are maturing in Ethiopia. May to July Ethiopia will continue to breed. Swarms in is the growing season for corn, millet and SNNRR and Oromiya will continue to migrate sorghum in Ethiopia. The situation of Desert to Amhara, Tigray and eastern Somali in Locust control and prevention is still imperious, Northwest Somalia. Swarms in western which requires continuous monitoring and Somalia will spread westward to Afar and multinational joint prevention and control to Tigray. Meanwhile, swarms in northern Kenya ensure local agricultural, animal husbandry will migrate to southern and southeastern production and food security. Ethiopia. From late-June to July, swarms are

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (April - Early-mid May 2020)

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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May 2020 No.6 Total: 6

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Monitoring and assessment of Desert field data, and remote sensing data (such as Locust in Pakistan 2 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat Monitoring and assessment of Desert Locust in Somalia 3 series in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Contact us 6 self-developed models and algorithms for Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Western Sind in Pakistan. Desert Locust in research team constructed the ‘Vegetation Somalia harmed about 392.1 thousand pests and diseases monitoring and hectares of vegetation area in April (including forecasting system’, which could regularly 1.4 thousand hectares cropland, 136.4 release thematical maps and reports on thousand hectares grassland and 254.3 Desert Locust. thousand hectares shrub), mainly distributed This report focuses on the damage in Jubbada Hoose, Gedo, Bakool and Bay monitoring of the Desert Locust in Pakistan states in southern Somalia, Awdal, Woqooyi and Somalia. The result showed that by the Galbeed and Gogdheer states in the end of April 2020, Desert Locust in Pakistan northwest and Mudug state in the Middle. At harmed about 431.9 thousand hectares of present, locusts in Somalia and Pakistan are vegetation area (including 233.0 thousand constantly breeding and spreading. The hectares cropland and 198.9 thousand period from May to July coincides with the hectares grassland), mainly distributed in important growing season or harvesting North-central Punjab, northern Baluchistan, season of wheat, corn and other crops in the southern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, central two countries. If not properly controlled, Federally Administered Tribal Areas and locusts will bring major threats to agricultural

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and pasture production and national economy in the northern and central Punjab (damaged and people's livelihood. It is necessary to area is about 252.9 thousand hectares), the continue the monitoring and early warning of northern Baluchistan (damaged area is about the intercontinental Desert Locust plague, and 77.6 thousand hectares), the northern organize joint prevention and control in Federally Administered Tribal Areas multiple countries, ensuring the safety of (damaged area is about 52.8 thousand agricultural and pasture production, as well as hectares) and the southern regional stability. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (damaged area is about Monitoring and 40.0 thousand hectares). In addition, Sind was assessment of Desert also damaged by a small area of locusts, Locust in Pakistan about 8.6 thousand hectares (Figure 1). In early April 2020, the Desert Locusts in The comprehensive analysis showed that, Pakistan, mostly immature swarms, were in May 2020, locusts in Pakistan will continue mainly located in the southwest of Baluchistan to breeding, and locusts in spring breeding province. In the early-mid April, the locust areas in southwestern Baluchistan, central hoppers appeared at the border of Sind and Punjab, southern Iran and northern Oman will Punjab, the central and northern Punjab and move to summer breeding areas in the southern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The Indo-Pakistan border and gradually spread locusts developed into mature swarms in the into western India. Swarms of summer southwest Baluchistan. In late April, Desert breeding areas in Somalia in the horn of Africa Locusts continued multiplying, with mature are expected to migrate towards the locusts appearing in Punjab, Federally Indo-Pakistan border across the Arabian Sea Administered Tribal Areas and central and during June and July. At present, a large southern Sind. Locusts began spreading number of locusts in Pakistan have matured across the Indo-Pakistan border into India. and begun lying eggs. May to July is the Our results showed that by the end of April growing season or harvesting season of wheat, 2020, the Desert Locusts had affected 431.9 corn and rice in Pakistan. If the locusts thousand hectares of vegetation area in couldn't not be controlled effectively, the locust Pakistan, including 233.0 thousand hectares plague will continue, which may bring a heavy cropland and 198.9 thousand hectares blow to the agricultural and pasture production grassland. Damaged areas are mainly located in Pakistan.

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Figure1 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Pakistan (April 2020) Monitoring and mainly located in the western Jubbada Hoose assessment of Desert (damaged area is about 140.1 thousand Locust in Somalia hectares), the northern Bay (damaged area is In late March 2020, abundant rainfall about 80.4 thousand hectares), the western provided suitable conditions for locusts and southern Bakool (damaged area is about breeding in Somalia. In early April, the number 66.0 thousand hectares), the northern Gedo of locusts in Somalia continued breeding and (damaged area is about 39.0 thousand forming swarms. Locusts mainly located in hectares), the southern Woqooyi Galbeed Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed in the northwest, (damaged area is about 29.2 thousand Nugaal, Galguduud, Musug in the middle and hectares), the western Mudug (damaged area Bay in the south of Somalia. In early-mid April, is about 12.9 thousand hectares), the western the locusts in Somalia continued laying eggs and southern Togdheer (damaged area is and hatching. The number of locusts and about 9.8 thousand hectares), the southern damage area kept increasing. At the end of Awdal (damaged area is about 4.7 thousand April, swarms of locusts started appearing in hectares), the central Hiiraan (damaged area Sanaag with a tendency of spreading to Bari. is about 3.3 thousand hectares), the central Our results showed that by the end of April and western Sool (damaged area is about 2.6 2020, the locusts had affected 392.1 thousand thousand hectares), the western Galguduud hectares of vegetation area in Somalia, (damaged area is about 2.1 thousand including 1.4 thousand hectares cropland, hectares) and the southern Nugaal (damaged 136.4 thousand hectares grassland and 254.3 area is about 1.2 thousand hectares). In thousand hectares shrub. Damaged areas are addition, the southern Sanaag and western Jubbada Dhexe were also damaged by a

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small area of locusts, about 0.8 thousand area, respectively. The results show that hectares (Figure 2). Desert Locusts can cause great loss to In this study, Planet data with a spatial vegetation, and its outbreaks will seriously resolution of 3 m in February 2019 and affect the agricultural and pastoral production February 2020 were also used to monitor the and food security in Somalia (Figure 3). Desert Locusts damage in the heavily affected The comprehensive analysis showed that, vegetation areas in the northern Somalia. The in May 2020, locusts in Somalia will continue study area is located in the northern Bay, to hatch. Locusts from eastern and southern about 17 km to the northwest of Goof Gaduud, Ethiopia and southern Yemen are expected to and about 16 km to the southeast of Baidoa. migrate to northern and central Somalia from The vegetation types are mainly shrub and May to June. As the locusts continue to grassland with a little area of cropland, and the mature and spawn, new swarms are expected total area is 17.2 thousand hectares. The to form in Somalia from late June to July and monitoring results showed that the affected migrate to the Indo-Pakistan border along with area of vegetation in the study area was 2.2 the southwest monsoon. May to July is the key thousand hectares, accounting for 12.5% of growing season and harvesting season of the total area of the study area. Among them, corn and other crops in Somalia. The situation the shrubs affected the most area at 1.3 of Desert Locust control and prevention is still thousand hectares, and the grassland severe, which requires continuous monitoring damaged area was 0.9 thousand hectares, and multinational joint prevention and control accounting for 9.8% and 20.8% of the total to ensure local agricultural and animal area of shrubs and grasslands in the study husbandry production and food security.

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (April 2020)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert locust damage in key areas of Somalia based on Planet images

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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April 2020 No.5 Total: 5

Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences Key laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Big Earth Data Science Engineering Project (CASEarth) Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory Key Lab of Aviation Plant Protection, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, P.R. China National Engineering Research Center for Agro-Ecological Big Data Analysis & Application Report of Monitoring and Assessment of Desert Locust in Africa and Asia Mid April 2020 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Yemen and Ethiopia Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Monitoring and assessment of Desert field data, and remote sensing data (such as Locust in Yemen 2 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat Monitoring and assessment of Desert Locust in Ethiopia 5 series in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Contact us 8 self-developed models and algorithms for shrub in Yemen, respectively. In March to Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the early-mid April 2020, Desert Locust in Ethiopia research team constructed the ‘Vegetation harmed about 1750.4 thousand hectares of pests and diseases monitoring and vegetation area (including 393.0 thousand forecasting system’, which could regularly hectares of cropland, 404.7 thousand hectares release thematical maps and reports on of grassland, and 952.7 thousand hectares of Desert Locust. shrub), mainly distributed in southern SNNPR, This report focuses on the locust plagues northern and central Somalia, and northern in Yemen and Ethiopia. The results showed and southern Oromiya. that, as of mid-April 2020, 20 provinces in At present, locust spring breeding is Yemen had been harmed since Desert Locust underway in Yemen and Ethiopia. April-June is invaded northeastern Yemen in January 2019. an important planting and growing season for The vegetation damaged area is 1535.9 crops in Yemen, and is also an important thousand hectares, including 437.3 thousand harvesting season for crops in Ethiopia. If not hectares of cropland, 264.5 thousand hectares controlled properly, locusts will bring a major of grassland and 834.1 thousand hectares of threat to agricultural and pasture production shrub, accounting for 34.4%, 46.0% and and the national economy and the people's 14.8% of the total cropland, grassland, and livelihood. It is necessary to carry out the

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monitoring and early warning of the Desert Locust moved westward to Marib and intercontinental Desert Locust plague Al Jawf, and continued westward to the continuously and dynamically, and organize northern highlands of Dhamer and Sana’a. joint prevention and control in multiple Mature locust swarms appeared in Ataq and countries, to ensure the safety of agricultural Shabwah in the south, some locusts began to and pasture production and regional stability. lay eggs. By the end of May 2019, 9 provinces The specific research results are as follows: in eastern and mid-western Yemen had been Monitoring and invaded by Desert Locust. The vegetation assessment of Desert damaged area is 131.6 thousand hectares, Locust in Yemen including 22.4 thousand hectares of cropland, In May 2018, the tropical cyclone Sagar 16.4 thousand hectares of grassland and 92.8 formed in the Gulf of Aden and the tropical thousand hectares of shrub. From June to July cyclone Mekunu formed in the southern 2019, Desert Locust started summer breeding, Arabian Peninsula brought lots of rainfall to Desert Locust in southern Marib continued to southern Yemen. In October 2018, the tropical lay eggs and hatch. Mature locust swarms cyclone Luban formed over the Arabian Sea appeared in the Suq Abs area in the north of and moved towards the Arabian Peninsula, the Red Sea coast, and the Gulf of Aden in the brought lots of rainfall to eastern Yemen, south continued to lay eggs and hatch. The southern Oman, and southern Saudi Arabia. precipitation in July caused Yemen’s locusts to The two precipitations increased green multiply for many generations and gradually vegetation in southwestern, southern and spread to the southwest of Saudi Arabia along eastern Yemen, and the border areas with the Red Sea. At the same time, some locust Oman and Saudi Arabia, providing suitable swarms crossed the Gulf of Aden invaded conditions for Desert Locust reproduction. northern Somalia, southern Eritrea, and In January 2019, Desert Locust appeared eastern Ethiopia. From August to September in the Rub' Al Khali Desert (Empty Quarter), at 2019, locust swarms reached the coast of the the border of southeastern Yemen, Oman, and Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Unusually Saudi Arabia. The second-generation heavy rainfall gave birth to a large number of reproduction was completed at the end of the locust swarms in Yemen, especially in the month. Part of the locusts invaded northern southern and eastern Marib. From October to Saudi Arabia, western Rub' Al Khali Desert, December 2019, locusts in the breeding area United Arab Emirates (UAE) and southern Iran. of the coastal plain of the Red Sea in northern From February to March 2019, the Desert Yemen and the neighboring areas of Saudi Locust in northeastern Yemen continued to Arabia continued to lay eggs, hatch, and start multiply and spread to the planting area of winter breeding. Besides, locusts in the Wadi Hadramawt. From April to May 2019, the southern coastal were also breeding and gradually clustered. By the end of December

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2019, the newly added vegetation damaged grassland and 533.5 thousand hectares of area was 499.4 thousand hectares, including shrub (Fig 1 and 2). 155.0 thousand hectares of cropland, 136.6 Research results showed that from thousand hectares of grassland and 207.8 January 2019 to early-mid April 2020, Desert thousand hectares of shrub. Locusts invaded 20 provinces in Yemen In January 2020, Desert Locust in the except Suqutra. Desert Locust has caused the coastal plains of the Red Sea continued to damage of 1535.9 thousand hectares in multiply, new locust swarms continued to form Yemen with 437.3 thousand hectares of and lay eggs, some locust swarms moved to cropland, 264.5 thousand hectares of the eastern highlands, some crossed the Red grassland, and 834.1 thousand hectares of Sea to Eritrea. At the same time, some locust shrub, account ting for 34.4%, 46% and 14.8% swarms along the border between India and of the total cropland, grassland, and shrub in Pakistan, and south of Oman moved south Yemen. Most of the vegetation in Yemen is along the coast, to the southern coast of distributed in the western region, so the Yemen. In February 2020, the locust swarms vegetation damage area in western Yemen is of the coastal plain started the next generation larger. Among them, Al-Hudaydah province on reproduction. Some locust swarms moved the west coast of the Red Sea has the largest northward to Saudi Arabia, and some locust damage area of 341.1 thousand hectares. The swarms moved to the eastern highlands and second is in the southwestern province of inside Yemen. On the 29th, mature locust Ta'izz with an area of 293.5 thousand hectares. swarms appeared in Sana’a, and newly Next, in the provinces of San'a and Ibb reproduced locusts appeared in Aden on the adjacent to the east, the affected areas were southern coast. In March 2020, the locusts in 138.9 thousand hectares and 134.4 thousand the Aden area of the southern coast continued hectares. The affected area of Ad-Dāli to multiply, mature, and form swarms. A large Province is 112.7 thousand hectares; the amount of precipitation occurred in central affected areas of Lahij Province in the Wadi Hadramawt, continuously forming new southwest and Dhamar in the Midwest are locust swarms in the inland and coastal areas 96.3 and 92.4 thousand hectares, respectively. at the border between Yemen and Oman. In The affected areas of Hajjah and Amrān in the early April 2020, mature locust swarms northwest are 62.7 thousand hectares and appeared along the border with Oman, and in 59.2 thousand hectares, respectively. The northern Aden. Desert Locust in the eastern affected areas of Al-Mahwīt, Sa'dah, and plateau were laying eggs. By the end of Al-Baydā are 46.2 thousand hectares, 45.8 early-mid April 2020, the newly added thousand hectares, and 38.8 thousand vegetation damaged area was 904.9 thousand hectares, respectively. Although the locusts hectares, including 259.9 thousand hectares appeared earlier and had higher density in the of cropland, 111.5 thousand hectares of central and eastern provinces, the vegetation

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coverage in these areas was low and the from April to June 2020, the Desert Locust affected area was relatively smaller. The along the Red Sea coast, the southwestern affected areas of Abyān, Hadramawt, Raimah, coast, and the junction with Oman in the east Al-Mahrah, Shabwah, Ma'rib, and Al-Jawf of Yemen will continue spring breeding and Province are 17.8 thousand hectares, 14.6 gradually spread inland. It is expected that the thousand hectares, 13.3 thousand hectares, swarms will move to central Saudi Arabia from 10.6 thousand hectares, 7.7 thousand April to May. As the locusts in the Arabian hectares, 5.6 thousand hectares, and 4.3 Peninsula breed in spring, it is expected that thousand hectares, respectively. In addition, the swarms will migrate to central Yemen in although there are locusts invaded in Aden, June for summer breeding. At present, a large the affected area is slightly smaller, totaling number of locusts in Yemen have laid eggs on 48.44 hectares. Yemen is a typical the ground and kept hatching. A new round of agro-pastoral country with an agricultural spring breeding has begun. April-June is an population of 75%. The locust plague severely important planting and growing season for damaged Yemen’s pastures and farmland, crops in Yemen. If the locusts couldn’t be reduced crop production, and caused huge controlled effectively, the plague will continue, losses to local agricultural and animal which may hit Yemen’s agriculture and husbandry production. livestock production hard. The comprehensive analysis showed that,

Figure 1 Migration path of Desert Locust in Yemen (2019-2020)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Yemen (February 2019 to Early-mid April 2020) Monitoring and thousand hectares of shrub. In the early-mid assessment of Desert April, the locusts in northern Kenya spread Locust in Ethiopia northward, the number of locusts in the In March 2020, locusts in southern SNNPR, and Yabello and Negele regions in Amhara and Afar, and rift valleys of northern southern Oromia increased. In mid-April, Oromiya and SNNPR, continued to reproduce locust swarms were reported to appear in the in spring. Locusts were maturing and Gode region of southern Somalia, and the swarming, air and ground control operations locust swarms in the north also continued to were continuing. In late March, Ethiopia multiply and expand, causing further damage experienced extensive precipitation, which to the area. The newly added vegetation promoted the reproduction of locusts. At the damaged area is 734.1 thousand hectares end of the month, new locust swarms (including 92.1 thousand hectares of cropland, appeared in Dire Dawa and Jijjiga in western 133.3 thousand hectares of grassland and Somali, and locusts continued to mature and 508.7 thousand hectares of shrub) (Fig 3). lay eggs. By the end of March 2020, the newly The result shows that from March to added vegetation damaged area in Ethiopia mid-April 2020, the newly added vegetation was 1016.3 thousand hectares, including damaged area in Ethiopia is 1750.4 thousand 300.9 thousand hectares of cropland, 271.4 hectares, including 393.0 thousand hectares thousand hectares of grassland and 444.0 of cropland, 404.7 thousand hectares of

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grassland and 952.7 thousand hectares of Desert Locust was 4.5 thousand hectares, shrub, accounted for 1.6%, 2.3%, and 1.3% of accounting for 12.1% of the total area of the Ethiopia’s crop land, grassland, and shrub, study area. Among them, shrub has the respectively. The affected areas are mainly largest area of damage, with a total of 3.6 located in central and southern Ethiopia. thousand hectares. Grassland is 0.7 thousand Among them, Oromiya has the largest area of hectares. Cropland is 0.2 thousand hectares, damage, with a total of 1151.1 thousand accounting for 12.6%, 10.8%, and 9.1% of the hectares. The Somali is the second most total area of shrub, grassland and cropland in affected, with a total of 289.7 thousand the study area, respectively. The results prove hectares. The SNNPR ranks third, with a total that, Desert Locusts can cause large losses to of 267.9 thousand hectares. The newly vegetation, and its outbreaks will seriously affected areas in Afar and Amhara in the affect Ethiopia’s agricultural production and northwest are 38.4 thousand hectares and 3.3 food security (Figure4). thousand hectares, respectively. 80% of the The comprehensive analysis showed that, population in Ethiopia is the agricultural and from April to May 2020, Desert Locust in pastoral population. The locust plague has central Ethiopia will continue spring breeding. caused a huge impact on the local agricultural At the same time, locust swarms in northern and pastoral production, which seriously Somalia are also at risk of crossing the border threatened the local agricultural and pastoral to eastern Somalia. The locust swarm is safety and national livelihood. The domestic expected to move to summer breeding areas disaster situation is severe. in northern Amhara, Afar, and Djibouti from This study used Planet images with a April to June. The locust swarm in Somalia is spatial resolution of 3 m to monitor the Desert expected to move towards the Indo-Pakistan Locusts damage in severely affected areas in border with the southwest monsoon of the the Rift Valley of eastern Ethiopian (Figure4). Indian Ocean. At present, the spring breeding Research data is Planet data for February is underway in Ethiopia. With the continuous 2019 and February 2020. The study area is hatching of locust eggs in May, it is expected located at the junction of Oromiya and Afar, that new locust swarms will form from late about 24 km southwest to Awash, and about June to July. April-June is an important 22 km northeast to Mieso. The vegetation harvesting season for crops in Ethiopia. The types include grassland, shrub and cropland, situation of Desert Locust control is still severe. with a total area of 37.3 thousand hectares, of Continuous monitoring and multi-country joint which grassland is 6.5 thousand hectares, prevention and control are needed to ensure shrub is 28.6 thousand hectares, and cropland local agricultural and animal husbandry is 2.2 thousand hectares. The monitoring production and food security. results showed that, the vegetation affected by

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Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (March to Early-mid April 2020)

Figure 4 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in the key damage area of Ethiopia based on Planet images

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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April 2020 No.4 Total: 4

Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences Key laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Big Earth Data Science Engineering Project (CASEarth) Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory Key Lab of Aviation Plant Protection, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, P.R. China National Engineering Research Center for Agro-Ecological Big Data Analysis & Application Report of Monitoring and Assessment of Desert Locust in Africa and Asia Early April 2020 Desert Locust monitoring and loss assessment in Somalia and Pakistan Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Monitoring and assessment of field data, and remote sensing data (such as Desert Locust in Somalia 2 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat Monitoring and assessment of Desert Locust in Somalia 5 series in US, Sentinel series in EU), and Contact us 7 self-developed models and algorithms for Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Somalia, respectively. In March 2020, Desert research team constructed the ‘Vegetation Locust in Pakistan harmed about 449.5 pests and diseases monitoring and thousand hectares of vegetation area forecasting system’, which could regularly (including 374.1 thousand hectares of release thematical maps and reports on cropland and 75.4 thousand hectares of Desert Locust. grassland), mainly distributed in Punjab, This report focuses on the locust plagues Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Federally Administered in Somalia and Pakistan. The results showed Tribal Areas in northern Pakistan and that, by the end of March 2020, 11 states in Baluchistan in the southwest. At present, Somalia had been harmed since Desert locust spring breeding is underway in Somalia Locusts invaded northern Somalia in June and Pakistan. Considering that April is the 2019. The vegetation damaged area is 2239.4 best period for Desert Locust control, it’s very thousand hectares, including 9.3 thousand important for Somalia and Pakistan to focus hectares of cropland, 596.7 thousand hectares on locust hatching and conduct monitoring, of grassland and 1633.4 thousand hectares of warning, prevention and control of locusts shrub, accounting for 9.6%, 15.3% and 3.7% during this month. April-June is an important of the total cropland, grassland and shrub in growing or harvesting season for wheat and

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corn in both countries. If not controlled severely affected, with a damage area of properly, locusts will bring major threat to 494.4 thousand hectares (2.7 thousand agricultural and pasture production national hectares of cropland, 38.5 thousand hectares economy and the people's livelihood. It is of grassland, and 453.2 thousand hectares of necessary to continue the monitoring and shrub). In mid to late October, swarms in early warning of intercontinental Desert Locust Ethiopia migrated southeast to Bohotley at the plague and organize joint prevention and border between Somalia and Ethiopia, as well control in multiple countries to ensure the as Laascaanood in northern Somalia. In safety of agricultural and pasture production November, swarms in eastern Ethiopia and regional stability. continued to multiply and spread to Gaalkacyo Monitoring and in central Somalia. In early December, locusts assessment of Desert spreaded to Dhuusa Mareeb and Beled Locust in Somalia Weyne. At the end of December, locusts in In May 2018, the tropical cyclone brought eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia migrated lots of rainfall to northern Somalia. The southward through Huddur to Garbaharey. increasing vegetation provided suitable The newly added damaged area was about conditions for locust breeding. In September, 940.8 thousand hectares (3.2 thousand Desert Locust began breeding locally in hectares of cropland, 307.7 thousand hectares Berbera (northwestern Somalia). of grassland, and 629.9 thousand hectares of From June to July 2019, mature locust shrub). swarms of Yemen moved southward across In January 2020, swarms in central and the Gulf of Aden to northern Somalia. Mature southern Somalia continued to migrate south locust swarms appeared along the coast of to the middle of Jubbada Dhexe at the border Bosaso in the northeast and Berbera in the of southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya; northwest. In early August, a group of swarms they continued to move to northeastern Kenya on the northwestern coast of Somalia and began to lay eggs. At the end of January, migrated to eastern Ethiopia. At the end of locusts appear in the Garowe of northeast August, swarms appeared on the plateau Somalia. In February, the locusts in Beledwin between Boroma and Burao in the northwest. and Galkayo of central Somalia continued to There were many adults on the east coast of multiply, and the immature locust population Berbera and swarms continue to breed on the was found in northeast Garowe. In March, plateau between Hadaaftimo and Iskushuban locusts continued to breed in northeastern, in the northeast. Till the end of September, central and southern Kenya. Till the end of locusts had invaded Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, March, damaged area in Somalia had Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari in northern increased by about 804.2 thousand hectares Somalia. Grassland and cropland were (3.4 thousand hectares of cropland, 250.5 thousand hectares of grassland and 550.3

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Page 3 thousand hectares of shrub), shown in Fig 1 87.7 thousand hectares, 25.7 thousand and Fig 2. hectares, 11.9 thousand hectares and 3.6 Our results showed that by the end of thousand hectares respectively. The locust March, the locusts had affected 2239.4 plague has devastated pastureland and thousand hectares of vegetation area in cropland in Somalia, causing huge losses to Somalia, including 9.3 thousand hectares of local farming and animal husbandry. It was the cropland, 596.7 thousand hectares of worst locust disaster in Somalia for the past 25 grassland and 1633.4 thousand hectares of years, exacerbating the food and nutrition shrub, accounting for 9.6%, 15.3% and 3.7% crisis of the local vulnerable groups. of the total cropland, grassland and shrub, Comprehensive analysis showed that, respectively. Gedo, a region in southern from April to June 2020, the Desert Locust in Somalia on its border with northeastern Kenya, northern, central and southern Somalia will suffered the largest area as 440.1 thousand continue its spring breeding. It is expected that hectares. There are about 304.2 and 299.2 the swarms will migrate to summer breeding thousand hectares of damaged area in areas in northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti and Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed respectively, the southern coast of Yemen from April to The damaged area in Mudug and Bakool are June. At the same time, the locusts in the about 211.6 thousand hectares and 177.2 spring breeding area of the central Somalia thousand hectares. The damaged areas in are expected to migrate towards the Sanaag and Sool are about 133.7 thousand Indo-Pakistan border with the southwest hectares and 132.9 thousand hectares. The monsoon of the Indian Ocean in June. At damaged areas in Bay and Galguduud are present, a large number of locusts in Somalia about 120.7 thousand hectares and 112.5 have laid eggs on the ground and the next thousand hectares. The damaged areas in generation of spring breeding has already Awdal and Bari are about 90.3 thousand begin. If not controlled effectively, the locust hectares and 88.1 thousand hectares. The plague will continue, which may bring a heavy damaged areas in Hiiraan, Shabeellaha blow to the agricultural and pasture production Dhexe, Jubbada Dhexe and Nugaal are about in Somalia.

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Figure 1 Migration path of Desert Locust in Somalia (2019-2020)

Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Somalia (June 2019-March 2020)

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Monitoring and spatial resolution of 3m to monitor the Desert assessment of Desert Locusts damage in the severely damaged Locust in Somalia cropland in northern Pakistan (Fig 4). The From late February to the end of March study areas are located in Punjab. Area 1 is in 2020, the Desert Locusts in Pakistan were Chawinda of northeast Punjab, about 80 km mainly distributed in central Punjab, southern south to Lahore and 40 km southwest to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, central Federally Gujranwala with the Degh Nala River flows Administered Tribal Areas, and southwestern through this area. The main vegetation type in and Central Balochistan. From February 25th Area 1 is cropland with a total area of 52.2 to March 5th, 2020, the China Locust Control thousand hectares. The monitoring results Working Group went to Pakistan to conduct a showed that the cropland was obviously field survey of the Desert Locust plague and damaged by Desert Locusts in February 2020, provided technical support for locust with an area of 4.3 thousand hectares, prevention. China provided 14 sets of locust accounting for 8.2% of the total area. Area 2 is control equipment and 250 barrels of in the north-central part of Punjab, about 10 insecticide to Pakistan on March 9th. The km northeast to Chiniot and 20 km southeast locust plague was under primary control. Our to Faisalabad, with the Genab River flows research results showed that in March 2020, through the northern edge of Area 2. The main the Desert Locusts in Pakistan endangered vegetation type is cropland, with a total area of the area of vegetation in the country by a total 52.4 thousand hectares. The monitoring of 449.5 thousand hectares, including 374.1 results showed that the cropland in Area 2 thousand hectares of cropland and 75.4 was obviously damaged by the Desert Locusts thousand hectares of grassland. Damaged in February 2020, with an area of 4.5 areas are mainly located in the north central thousand hectares, accounting for 8.6% of the part of Punjab (damaged area of about 354.6 total area. The results of our research indicate thousand hectares), the southern part of that Desert Locusts caused great damage to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (damaged area of about cropland and seriously threaten food security. 53.2 thousand hectares), the central part of At present, locust eggs in Pakistan are Federally Administered Tribal Areas gradually hatching, and the best period for (damaged area of about 19.7 thousand locust prevention and control is early to hectares) and the central and southwestern of mid-April. Pakistan could carry out targeted Balochistan (damaged area of about 18.4 Desert Locust egg removal and monitor adults’ thousand hectares). In addition, Sind also had migration. In Pakistan, 52% land is grassland, a damage area of 3.6 thousand hectares and desert grassland with water sources is the adjacent to Balochistan (Fig 3). key area for Desert Locusts eggs laying. We used Planet images with higher Therefore, it is necessary to focus on monitoring the hatching of Desert Locusts in

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desert grassland areas. April-May is the controlled, the locust plague will continue to harvest season of wheat and corn in Pakistan. erupt, which may cause a heavy blow to If the Desert Locusts are not effectively agricultural production in Pakistan.

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Pakistan (March 2020)

Figure 4 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in cropland of northern Pakistan based on Planet images

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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March 2020 No.3 Total: 3

Overview Content Integrated with multi-source Earth Overview 1 Monitoring and assessment of Desert Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Locust in Kenya 2 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Monitoring and assessment of Desert Locust in Ethiopia 4 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat Contact us 7 series in US, Sentinel series in EU), and 2020, 21 counties in Kenya had been harmed self-developed models and algorithms for since Desert Locusts invaded northeastern Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Kenya on December 28, 2019. The vegetation research team constructed the ‘Vegetation damaged area has reached 2745.3 thousand pests and diseases monitoring and hectares, including 934.1 thousand hectares forecasting system’, which could regularly of cropland, 985.2 thousand hectares of release thematical maps and reports on grassland, and 826 thousand hectares of Desert Locust. shrub. From February to mid-March 2020, the Researchers continued to conduct Desert Locusts in Ethiopia have harmed research on remote sensing dynamic 2062.3 thousand hectares of local pasture and monitoring of Desert Locust in Asian and cropland, including 1094.3 thousand hectares African countries. This report focuses on the cropland, 291.3 thousand hectares grassland locust plagues in Kenya and Ethiopia. The and 676.7 thousand hectares shrub. Desert results showed that, by early to mid-March Locust endangered areas are mainly in

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Oromiya and Southern Nations Nationalities locust swarms in Ogaden in eastern Ethiopia and People Region (SNNPR) in central and central Somalia invaded Mandera in

Ethiopia. At present, Ethiopia and Kenya have northeastern Kenya.

entered the spring breeding season. In January 2020, locust swarms in

Multi-generational breeding of locust will lead Ethiopia and Somalia were constantly

to a surge in populations over the next three migrating to the northeast of Kenya. The

months, which coincides with the planting swarms in Mandela spread south to Wajir and

season or growing season of crops, such as Garissa, west along the Ethiopian border

corn. If not properly controlled, Desert Locusts (Moyale and Marsabit) and southwest into

will pose a major threat to the food security of central areas north of Mt Kenya (Isiolo,

Ethiopia and Kenya. It is necessary to carry Samburu, Meru and most recently Laikipia).

out the monitoring and early warning of Desert And locust swarms moved north of Mt. Kenya

Locust plague continuously and dynamically, westwards to the southern Rift Valley near

and organize joint prevention and control in Kapedo on the border of Baringo and Turkana.

multiple countries, to ensure the safe of As of the 28th, Desert Locusts had spread to

agricultural and pasture production and 13 counties in northern, central, and

regional stability. southwestern Kenya. Pastures and cropland Monitoring and had been severely damaged, with an area of assessment of Desert approximately 934.1 thousand hectares

Locust in Kenya (220.4 thousand hectares of cropland, 279.9 From October to November 2019, east thousand hectares of grassland, and 433.8 African countries have experienced thousand hectares of shrub). In February, the exceptionally heavy rains attributed to the locust swarms in northern and central Kenya Indian ocean dipole – a climate phenomenon continued to mature and lay eggs, and the in which the western part of Indian ocean near number of locusts continued to increase. The the east African coast was warmer than the swarms kept moving south to Kajiado and eastern part. Suitable temperature and west to West Pocket in the Rift Valley sufficient rainfall continued to increase green Province, and reached the Tanzania border vegetation, which provided ideal conditions for and the Uganda border on the 7th and 9th, desert locust breeding. On December 28, respectively, and reached Kericho in

- 123 - Page 3 southwestern Kenya on the 17th. Meantime, 12.4%, 4.2% and 3.6% of the total cropland, the swarms appeared in the coast of Lake grassland and shrub in Kenya. Among them,

Turkana of northern Kenya. By the end of Rift Valley Province has the largest damage

February, 21 counties in Kenya had been area of 1325.2 thousand hectares, mainly affected by locust plagues, with an additional distributed in Turkana, West Pockett, area of approximately 985.2 thousand Samburu, Laikipia, Baringo, Kericho and hectares (233.3 thousand hectares of Cajado. Then is the Eastern Province, with an cropland, 287 thousand hectares of grassland, area of 1163.2 thousand hectares, mainly and 464.9 thousand hectares of shrub). Aerial distributed in Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Embu and and ground locust control operations are Kitui. The central province suffered an area of ongoing, and FAO estimated that Kenya has 141.5 thousand hectares, mainly distributed in treated at least 15 thousand hectares in Nyeri and Kirini. The affected area of Binhai

February. In early to mid-March, locust Province is 71.5 thousand hectares, mainly continued to breed, the number of locusts has distributed in Tana River County. The affected been increasing, and the first generation of area of Northeast Province is 14.7 thousand mature locust populations was forming. The hectares, distributed in Mandela, Wagir and swarms in Marsabit, Turkana, Mandela, Wajir, Garissa. The affected area of Nairobi Special

Isiolo, and Sambu are further concentrated, Zone is 14.3 thousand hectares. The affected with an increasing of damaged area about 826 area of Nyanza Province is 12.6 thousand thousand hectares (199.9 thousand hectares hectares, mainly distributed in Kisum. Part of of cropland, 252.3 thousand hectares of the western province is also affected, with an grassland, and 373.8 thousand hectares of area of 2.3 thousand hectares. Since 70% of shrub) this month (Figures 1 and 2). Kenya's population are agricultural and

Our results showed that from the end of pastoral, this locust plague has caused a huge

December 2019 to the early-mid March, impact on local agriculture and animal

Desert Locust has caused the damage of husbandry production. It is the worst locust

2745.3 thousand hectares in Kenya with 934.1 infestation in Kenya in 70 years, which thousand hectares of cropland, 985.2 seriously threatens national livelihood and thousand hectares of grassland, and 826 regional stability. thousand hectares of shrub, accounting for

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Comprehensive analysis showed that, Valley continued to increase, and the area of

from March to April 2020, Desert Locusts in damage was further expanded. An area of

northern and central Kenya will continue to 928.5 thousand hectares were increased

breed in spring. It is expected that the swarms (537.4 thousand hectares of cropland, 47.7

will continue to invade northeastern Uganda thousand hectares grassland, and 343.4

westward or migrate northwestward to South thousand hectares of shrub), mainly

Sudan. The swarms have a lower risk of distributed in the south region of Amhara and

invading Tanzania from Kenya due to the Afar, and rift valleys of Oromiya and SNNPR

south wind. From April to June, Desert locusts (Figure 3).

are expected to migrate to summer breeding The results showed that from February

areas in central Sudan and northern Ethiopia. to early-mid March 2020, the Desert Locusts

At present, a large number of locusts in Kenya in Ethiopia endangered the area of vegetation

have laid eggs on the ground and kept in the country by a total of 2062.3 thousand

hatching. A new round of spring breeding has hectares, of which 1094.3 thousand hectares

begun. If the locust couldn’t be controlled of cropland, 291.3 thousand hectares of

effectively, the plague will continue, which grassland, and 676.7 thousand hectares of

may hit Kenya’s agricultural and livestock shrub, respectively, accounted for 5.4%, 2.0%

production hard. and 1.1% of Ethiopia’s cropland, grassland Monitoring and and shrub. Among them, Oromiya has the assessment of Desert largest area of damage, with a total of 1506.3

Locust in Ethiopia thousand hectares, including 728.4 thousand In February 2020, locusts in Harar (East hectares of cropland, 212.7 thousand Harerghe) and Somali (Jijjiga, Warder, hectares of grassland, and 565.2 thousand Kebridehar, Gode) and southern Oromiya hectares of shrub. The southern ethnic states were migrating to the central Rift Valley from are the second most affected, with a total of south and north, coupled with the continuous 499.6 thousand hectares, including 360.3 breeding and hatching of local locusts, the thousand hectares of cropland, 67.8 thousand damage continued to increase. In early to hectares of grassland, and 71.5 thousand mid-March, with the new generation of locusts hectares of shrub. 44.6 thousand hectares of in spring, the locust population in the Rift land was affected in Afar, of which 1.5

- 125 - Page 5 thousand hectares of cropland, 9.1 thousand At the same time, the swarms in northern hectares of grassland, and 34 thousand Somalia will cross the border and reach hectares of shrub. Amhara's damaged area is Somali in eastern Ethiopia. It is expected that

11.8 thousand hectares, of which 4.1 the swarm will migrate to the summer thousand hectares of cropland, 1.7 thousand breeding areas of Amhara, Afar and Djibouti hectares of grassland, and 6 thousand between April and June, while the swarms in hectares of scrub. In Ethiopia, 80% population Somali are expected to migrate with the Indian are the agricultural and pastoral population. Ocean southwest monsoon to the

The locust plague has caused a huge impact Indo-Pakistan border in June. At present, on the local agricultural and pastoral locusts in Ethiopia have begun a new round of production, which seriously threatened the spring breeding. The situation of Desert local agricultural and pastoral safety and Locust control is still severe. Continuous national livelihood. The domestic disaster monitoring and multi-country joint prevention situation is severe. and control are needed to ensure local

Comprehensive analysis showed that the agricultural and animal husbandry production locusts located in central Ethiopia will continue and food security. its spring breeding from March to April in 2020.

Figure 1 Migration path of Desert Locust in Kenya in 2020

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Kenya (January to Early-mid March 2020)

Figure 3 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (February to Early-mid March 2020)

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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March 2020

No.2 Total: 2

Last week, researchers conducted At present, the Desert Locusts in Pakistan

following research on dynamic monitoring of have harmed 1035 thousand hectares of

Desert Locust migration and damage in Asian wheat planting area, accounting for 11% of the

and African countries based on the Digital total national wheat planting area. In Ethiopia,

Earth Science Platform, and forecasting of the which is mainly engaged in agriculture and

possible breeding areas and migration paths pasture, the vegetation damaged area has

from March to June 2020 (Figure1). The result reached 3753 thousand hectares, seriously

shows that currently the Desert Locusts are affecting the local livelihood. In addition,

mainly located in the winter breeding areas of Desert Locusts in Ethiopia, Kenya, southern

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Iran and Pakistan have entered the spring the Indo-Pakistan border moved to northeast breeding season. Multi-generational breeding Oman, while the locust swarms in northeast

of locust will lead to a surge in pest Oman also moved south to south Yemen and

populations over the next three months, which north Somalia. In February, the swarms in

coincides with the growth season or harvest Kenya moved northwest into southern South

season of crop. Desert Locusts will pose a Sudan, south into northeastern Tanzania, and

major threat to the food security of the west to northeastern Congo through northern

above-mentioned countries. It is necessary to Uganda. Locust swarms from Saudi Arabia

carry out the monitoring and early warning of and western Yemen moved North-East

the intercontinental Desert Locust plague through central Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, Qatar

continuously and dynamically, and organize and Kuwait and reached southeastern Iraq by

joint prevention and control in multiple the end of February; Parts of locust swarms in

countries, to ensure the safety of agricultural northern Pakistan migrated to the southwest,

and pasture production and regional stability. and parts crossed the border into Afghanistan. Migration path and At present, locusts spring breeding are prediction of Desert underway in most areas. New spring breeding

Locust in Africa and Asia areas are expected to form in central Saudi By the end of 2019, the core breeding Arabia, Iran-Pakistan border, and areas of Desert Locust in East Africa and India-Pakistan border from March to June. southwest Asia were mainly located along the Locust swarms in these areas are supposed Red Sea (eastern Sudan and Eritrea, western to move into the summer breeding areas in Saudi Arabia and Yemen), Indo-Pakistan May or June, such as central Sudan, southern border, central Sudan and eastern Ethiopia, Yemen, northern Ethiopia and Indo-Pakistan as well as eastern Oman, southeastern Iran border, and the locusts may even migrate and central Saudi Arabia. eastwards with the Southwest Monsoon, if the In January 2020, the locust swarms adults along Indo-Pakistan border are not invaded south and central rift valley of controlled effectively in May. In the next three Ethiopia and northeast Kenya, and then months (March-June 2020), countries will step continued to invade south and northwest into the key growing season or harvest season Kenya. Meanwhile, the locust swarms along of crop, and if the Desert Locusts continue to

- 130 - Page 3 invade, agricultural and pasture production calling for high alert for an ongoing locust and national livelihoods in Asian and African plague and raising funds globally to help countries will be seriously threatened. FAO inflicted countries to fight locusts plague and has issued a worldwide Desert Locust warning, troubleshoot the food crisis. Monitoring and swarms in southern Iran are expected to move assessment of Desert into southwestern Pakistan along with the

Locust in Pakistan summer monsoon, and locust swarms along In January 2020, the locust in Nara, the Indio-Pakistan border may migrate to Tharparkar, Cholistan areas along eastern India in May (Figure3). Indo-Pakistan border continued to breed and At present, most wheat areas of Pakistan migrate northwards to Bahawalpur in southern are within the booting stage of growth, Punjab. Desert Locust harmed about 256 effectively control of locust must be conducted thousand hectares of vegetation area to protect wheat yield security. Our results (including 234 thousand hectares cropland showed that by the end of February, the locust and 22 thousand hectares grassland), mainly had affected 1035 thousand hectares of wheat distributed in the border areas between Sind in Pakistan, accounting for 11% of Pakistan's and Punjab (Figure2). In February, locust seeded area, In which, Sind has the damaged swarms moved northwest to Okara in Punjab, area about 234 thousand hectares, Lucky Marwat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and accounting for 20% of the province's seeded Dera Ismail Khan, damaged 298 thousand area; Punjab has the damaged area of about hectares of vegetation (including 265 701 thousand hectares, accounting for 11% of thousand hectares cropland and 33 thousand the whole province's seeded area; Baluchistan hectares grassland). Till late February, part of has the damaged area of about 48 thousand locust swarms from northern Pakistan moved hectares, accounting for 9% of the whole into Khost, Afghanistan. Locusts along the province's seeded area; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Indio-Pakistan border and the southern coast has the damaged area of about 52 thousand of Baluchistan will start a second generation of hectares, accounting for 17% of the whole spring breeding from March to June. Part of province's seeded area. Combined with the the locusts are expected to migrate to the recent regional agrometeorological conditions Iran/Pakistan boundary in March; locust such as the precipitation, temperature, etc., it

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is estimated that the wheat yield in the Ethiopia and southern Somalia, reached

damaged areas of these four provinces will northeastern Kenya at the end of February.

decrease by about 28%, 14%, 24% and 11% Local pasture and cropland in Ethiopia had

respectively, which brings a significant impact been badly damaged with an increased area

on the food security of Pakistan. of about 978 thousand hectares (135 Monitoring and thousand hectares cropland, 81 thousand assessment of Desert hectares grassland, and 762 thousand

Locust in Ethiopia hectares shrub). In January 2020, locusts in In June 2019, mature locust swarms from Harar and Jijjiga of eastern Somali, Warder, Yemen invaded northwest Somali in Ethiopia, Kebridehar, Gode were constantly hatching and sufficient rainfall provided favorable and growing, and migrating westwards and conditions for the breeding of Desert Locusts southwards to Yabello of southern Oromiya (Figure4). From July to September, some and the edge of the Rift Valley in eastern locust swarms spread to the northeast of Southern Nations Nationalities and People Amhara and the central Afar for summer Region (SNNPR). An area of 1038 thousand reproduction, endangering about 638 hectares of plant were increased (69 thousand thousand hectares of vegetation in western hectares of cropland, 35 thousand hectares Somali, Amhara and southern Afar (including grassland, and 934 thousand hectares of 199 thousand hectares cropland, 108 shrub). In February, swarms moved into the thousand hectares grassland, and 331 Rift Valley from the north and the south, larger thousand hectares shrub). From October to swarms were formed combined with the local December, the swarms continued breeding, locust breeding. The hazard areas are mainly with some of the swarms moving north along distributed in Somali, Oromiya and SNNPR Amhara to Tigray, and some of local swarms with an increased area of about 1099 moving east into the area around Dire Dawa thousand hectares, (540 thousand hectares and towards Ogaden in eastern Somali. While cropland, 149 thousand hectares grassland, part of locust swarms in northern Somalia and 410 thousand hectares shrub) (Figure5). invaded into Ethiopia across the country The results showed that since June 2019, border, then migrated southward from the Desert Locust has caused the damage of northern Ogaden and invaded southeast 3753 thousand hectares of vegetation in

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Ethiopia with 943 thousand hectares cropland, summer breeding area in northern Amhara,

373 thousand hectares grassland and 2437 Afar and Jibouti between April and June. At thousand hectares shrub, accounting for 4.7%, the same time, the locust in eastern Somali

2.5% and 3.9% of the total cropland, will conduct spring breeding from March to grassland and shrub in Ethiopia, respectively. June and the swarms are expected to migrate

The Rift Valley, known as the Ethiopia’s to Indio-Pakistan border in June with the granary, has also been badly devastated. southwest monsoon. Currently, a large

Since 80% of Ethiopia's population are number of locusts in Ethiopia have laid eggs agricultural and pastoral, this locust plague on the ground and next generation of spring has seriously threatened national livelihood breeding is about to begin. If the locust and regional stability. couldn’t be controlled effectively, the plague

Comprehensive analysis showed that the will continue, which may bring a heavy blow to locust located in Rift Valley of Oromiya and the agricultural and pasture production in

SNNPR will continue its spring breeding from Ethiopia.

March to June in 2020 and may migrate to

Figure 1 Migration path of Desert Locust in Asia and Africa (January-June 2020)

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Figure 2 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Pakistan (October 2019-February 2020)

Figure 3 Migration path of Desert Locust in Pakistan (January-June2020)

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Figure 4 Migration path of Desert Locust in Ethiopia (2019-2020)

Figure 5 Monitoring of Desert Locust damage in Ethiopia (Year 2019-2020)

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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February 2020 No.1 Total: 1

Desert Locust invasion in Africa and Asia Overview Integrated with multi-source Earth Content Observation data, e.g. meteorological data, Overview 1 field data, and remote sensing data (such as Migration path and prediction of Desert Locust in Africa and Asia 1 GF series in China, MODIS and Landsat series Contact us 4 in US, Sentinel series in EU), and tracked. self-developed models and algorithms for Desert Locust monitoring and forecasting, the Migration path and research team constructed the ‘Vegetation prediction of Desert pests and diseases monitoring and forecasting Locust in Africa and Asia system’, which could regularly release Figure1 shows the migration path of the Desert thematical maps and reports on Desert Locust. Locust from Year 2018 to 2020. Due to the The Desert Locust has ravaged the Horn influence of Northeast Monsoon and the barrier of Africa and Southwest Asia, posing serious of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, it has a lower threats on agricultural production and food probability of the Desert Locust in the security of the inflicted regions. The Food and Indo-Pakistan border invading China at present. Agriculture Organization of the United nations However, if the locust in Pakistan and India cannot be controlled effectively, and even （FAO）has issued a worldwide Desert Locust disasters erupt, then when the Southwest warning, calling for joint efforts from multiple Monsoon is extremely strong, it may has a countries in prevention and control of the pest higher probability for the locust moving from to ensure food security and regional stability. India to Myanmar via Bangladesh, and higher The migration path of the Desert Locust and risk to invading China's Yunnan and Tibet in make a detailed analysis on the possibility of May to June 2020, according to the analysis. the Desert Locust invasion of China has been

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Figure 1 Migration path of Desert Locust (Year 2018 – 2020)

The time series remote sensing monitoring Region, Indo-Pakistan border—southwestern results are shown in Figure2. From October to Baluchistan, shown in Figure3. December 2019, the locust swarms at the At present, a large number of locusts on Indo-Pakistan border began to breed in three the Indo-Pakistan border have spawned on the generations and migrated to spring breeding ground and are about to enter the next round of areas of southern Iran and northern Oman via spring breeding. In addition, Desert Locusts on Baluchistan. From January to February 2020, the southeast coast of Iran continue to breed locust swarms existed in northwest Pakistan, and invade Pakistan. The scientists warn that, if Nara, Tharparkar, and Cholistan. Some of them the Desert Locusts in Pakistan are not moved north of Bahawalpur, and some had the effectively controlled in the adult stage in May trend of migration to southwest Pakistan and 2020, the locust plague will continue to southern Iran due to climate impact. outbreak, which may cause a severe blow to Before May 2020, affected by the Pakistan’s agricultural production. In addition, Northeast Monsoon, there are three potential although the Indian locust plague has been migration paths of locusts along the controlled to a certain extent, affected by the Indo-Pakistan border, which are Indo-Pakistan southwest monsoon from May to June, locusts border—Bahawalpur—Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on the Indo-Pakistan border may migrate from Indo-Pakistan border—Quetta and southern Pakistan to India, continue to invade Nepal,

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Bangladesh, Myanmar, and may a higher risk pests in China, it will bring serious threats to to invade Yunnan and Tibet of China. China’s food security. The scientists suggested Considering China's biodiversity, climate the government to carry out large-scale locust and other conditions are conducive to further disaster monitoring and early warning, while breeding and migration of locusts, coupled with boosting global cooperation on Desert Locust the local Migratory Locust, one of the main prevention to help ensure global food security.

(a) January to November 2019 (b) December 2019 to February 2020 Figure 2 Time series remote sensing monitoring of Desert Locust damaged area in Pakistan from Year 2019 – 2020

Figure 3 Migration path of Desert Locust in Pakistan from Year 2019 – 2020

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FAX: +86-10-82178177 Chinese English Main contributors The Vegetation Pests and Diseases Monitoring and This report was released by Professor Wenjiang Forecasting system are available under: Huang’s and Associate Professor Yingying Dong’s http://www.rscropmap.com/ research team in Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Legal Notice Chinese contributors: Wenjiang Huang, Yingying Neither the Aerospace Information Research Dong, Longlong Zhao, Huichun Ye, Mingquan Wu, Institute nor any person action on behalf of the Kun Wang, Xiaoping Du, Changyong Dou, Jun Yan, institute is responsible for the use which might be Jingcheng Zhang, Bei Cui, Linsheng Huang, made of the publication. Dailiang Peng, Hong Chang, Yun Geng, Chao Ruan, Disclaimer Huiqin Ma, Anting Guo, Linyi Liu, Naichen Xing, This report is a product of the Vegetation Remote Yue Shi, Qiong Zheng, Yu Ren, Hansu Zhang, Sensing & Pest and Disease Application Research Tingguang Hu, Yanru Huang, Yu Jin, Chao Ding, Team of the Aerospace Information Research Biyao Zhang, Zhongxiang Sun, Xiangmei Qin, Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Xueling Li, , Yingxin Xiao, Zhuoqing Hao, Kang analyses and conclusions in the report do not Wu, Yong Liu, Bo Wu, Weiping Kong, Juhua Luo, represent the views of the Chinese Academy of Jinling Zhao, Dongyan Zhang, Xiaodong Yang, Sciences or the Aerospace Information Research Yanhua Meng, Wenjie Fan, Yue Liu, Gang Sun, Bin Institute. Users can legally quote the data in this Wu, Qing Zhang, Dacheng Wang, Wei Feng, report and indicate the source. However, any Xianfeng Zhou, Qiaoyun Xie, Muyi Huang, Jing judgments, inferences or opinions made based on Jiang, Zhaochuan Wu, Cuicui Tang, Fang Xu, Jianli the report do not represent the views of the Team. Li, Wenjing Liu, Junjing Lu, Furan Song, Qingsong The data published in this report are for reference Guan, Qinying Yang, Chuang Liu. only. The Team does not bear any legal Foreign contributors: Belinda Luke, Bethan Perkins, responsibility arising from the use of the report. Bryony Taylor, Hongmei Li, Wenhua Chen, Pablo Official Chinese boundaries are used in the report. Gonzalez-Moreno, Sarah Thomas, Timothy Holmes, Stefano Pignatti, Giovanni Laneve, Raffaele Casa, Mission statements: As the science and knowledge Simone Pascucci, Martin Wooster, Jason Chapman. service, the Sino-UK Crop Pest and Disease Advisory Experts: Bing Zhang, Gensuo Jia, Jihua Forecasting & Management Joint Laboratory is to Wang, Qiming Qin, Puyun Yang, Guofei Fang, support independent evidence for crop monitoring. Shouquan Chai, Jingquan Zhu, Yuying Jiang, Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Zhonghua Zhao, Binyuan Ren, Dongmei Yan, Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Xiangtao Fan, Jianhui Li, Jie Liu, Yubin Lan, (XDA19080304), National Key R&D Program of Jingfeng Huang, Anhong Guo, Zhanhong Ma, Yilin China (2017YFE0122400, 2016YFB0501501), Zhou, Xiongbing Tu, Wenbing Wu, Feng Zhang, National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhiguo Wang, Lifang Wu, Dong Liang, Yanbo (61661136004, 41801338, 41801352, Huang, Chenghai Yang, Liangxiu Han, Ruiliang Pu, 41871339), Beijing Nova Program of Science and Hugh Mortimer, Jon Styles, Andy Shaw, Jadu Dash.

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