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Estrategia Nacional De Glaciares Fundamentos REPÚBLICA DE CHILE MINISTERIO DE OBRAS PÚBLICAS DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE AGUAS ESTRATEGIA NACIONAL DE GLACIARES FUNDAMENTOS REALIZADO POR: CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS CIENTÍFICOS - CECS S.I.T. N° 205 Santiago, Diciembre 2009 MINISTERIO DE OBRAS PÚBLICAS Ministro de Obras Públicas Ingeniero Civil Industrial Sr. Sergio Bitar Ch. Director General de Aguas Abogado Sr. Rodrigo Weisner L. Jefe Unidad de Glaciología y Nieves Geógrafo Sr. Gonzalo Barcaza S. Inspectores Fiscales Ingeniero Civil Sr. Fernando Escobar C. Ingeniero Civil Sr. Cristóbal Cox O. CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS CIENTÍFICOS Jefe de Proyecto Dr. Andrés Rivera (Glaciólogo) Profesionales MSc Francisca Bown (Glacióloga) Claudio Bravo (Geógrafo) Daniela Carrión (Licenciada en Geografía) Dr. Gino Casassa (Glaciólogo) Claudia Flores (Secretaria) Dra. Paulina López (Hidroglacióloga) MSc Camilo Rada (Geofísico) Sebastián Vivero (Licenciado en Geografía) Pablo Zenteno (Geógrafo) Índice 1. INTRODUCCIÓN ..................................................................................................................6 1.1. ORIGEN DEL PROYECTO Y TRATAMIENTO GENERAL DEL TEMA .............................................6 1.2. HIPÓTESIS DE TRABAJO .........................................................................................................6 1.3. OBJETIVOS ............................................................................................................................7 1.4. ¿P OR QUÉ UNA ESTRATEGIA NACIONAL DE GLACIARES ? .....................................................8 2. GLACIARES Y CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO.............................................................................11 2.1. DEFINICIÓN DE GLACIAR .....................................................................................................11 2.1.1. DEFINICIÓN OPERATIVA ...................................................................................................12 2.2. CLASIFICACIÓN DE GLACIARES Y LAS FORMAS PRESENTES EN CHILE .................................12 2.2.1. MORFOLÓGICA PRIMARIA ................................................................................................12 2.2.2. TIPOS DE ZONAS DE ACUMULACIÓN .................................................................................17 2.2.3. TIPOS DE FRENTES ...........................................................................................................18 2.2.4. CLASIFICACIÓN TÉRMICA ................................................................................................18 2.2.5. CLASIFICACIÓN DINÁMICA ..............................................................................................19 2.3. CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN CHILE ............................................................................................20 2.3.1. CAMBIOS DE LARGO PLAZO (PRE -INSTRUMENTAL ) ..........................................................20 2.3.2. VARIABILIDAD Y CAMBIOS RECIENTES ............................................................................21 2.3.2.1. CAMBIOS EN TEMPERATURAS .................................................................................22 2.3.2.2. CAMBIOS EN PRECIPITACIONES ...............................................................................23 2.3.2.3. CAMBIOS EN ESCORRENTÍA ....................................................................................27 2.3.2.4. LÍNEAS DE NIEVE /EQUILIBRIO .................................................................................29 2.3.3. PROYECCIONES DE CAMBIOS CLIMÁTICOS FUTUROS ........................................................31 2.4. RESPUESTA DE LA CRIÓSFERA AL CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL Y SUS POTENCIALES EFECTOS SOBRE ACTIVIDADES HUMANAS Y SOBRE EL MEDIO AMBIENTE..................................................36 2.4.1. EFECTOS POTENCIALES GLOBALES ...................................................................................36 2.4.1.1. ESTADO DE LA CRIÓSFERA .....................................................................................38 2.4.1.2. IMPACTOS DE LOS CAMBIOS CRIOSFÉRICOS ............................................................42 2.4.2. EFECTOS POTENCIALES EN CHILE ....................................................................................44 2.4.2.1. ESTADO DE LA CRIÓSFERA EN CHILE CONTINENTAL ..............................................44 2.4.2.2. IMPACTOS DE LOS CAMBIOS CRIOSFÉRICOS EN CHILE .............................................47 3. INSTITUCIONALIDAD, LEGISLACIÓN Y POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS SOBRE GLACIARES............................................................................................................................51 3.1. INSTITUCIONALIDAD Y SUS LÍNEAS GENERALES DE TRABAJO ..............................................51 3.1.1. INSTITUCIONES DEL ESTADO VINCULADAS A LA ADMINISTRACIÓN , ESTUDIO Y RESGUARDO DE GLACIARES .......................................................................................................51 3.1.2. INSTITUCIONES DE INVESTIGACIÓN ..................................................................................53 3.1.3. EMPRESAS PRIVADAS .......................................................................................................55 3.1.4. PROYECTOS DE INVESTIGACIÓN RECIENTE .......................................................................57 3.1.5. PROGRAMAS DE ESTUDIO .................................................................................................57 3.2. MARCO NORMATIVO Y ESTRATÉGICO ACTUAL ...................................................................58 3.2.1. LOS GLACIARES EN LA LEGISLACIÓN ACTUAL ..................................................................58 3.2.2. POLÍTICA NACIONAL DE GLACIARES ...............................................................................62 3.3. PROPUESTAS LEGISLATIVAS................................................................................................64 4. ESTADO ACTUAL DE LA GLACIOLOGÍA EN CHILE...................................................66 4.1. ZONAS GLACIOLÓGICAS DE CHILE ......................................................................................66 4.1.1. ZONA NORTE ...................................................................................................................68 4.1.2. ZONA CENTRO .................................................................................................................75 4.1.3. ZONA SUR ........................................................................................................................76 4.1.4. ZONA AUSTRAL ...............................................................................................................79 4.2. INVENTARIOS DE GLACIARES .............................................................................................82 4.2.1. COBERTURA NACIONAL , REGIONAL Y POR CUENCA HIDROLÓGICA ..................................82 4.2.2. MÉTODOS UTILIZADOS E INFORMACIÓN DISPONIBLE .......................................................88 4.2.3. ESTIMACIONES DE ERRORES O INCERTIDUMBRES ASOCIADAS ..........................................91 3 4.3. ANÁLISIS DE INFORMACIÓN GLACIOLÓGICA .......................................................................92 4.3.1. VARIACIONES AREALES Y FRONTALES .............................................................................92 4.3.2. VARIACIONES VOLUMÉTRICAS .......................................................................................104 4.3.3. GLACIARES ROCOSOS ....................................................................................................106 4.3.4. BALANCE DE MASA ........................................................................................................107 4.3.5. BALANCE DE ENERGÍA ...................................................................................................111 4.3.6. MEDICIONES GEOFÍSICAS ...............................................................................................113 4.3.7. TESTIGOS DE HIELO .......................................................................................................117 4.3.8. HIDROLOGÍA GLACIAR ...................................................................................................119 4.3.9. ESTUDIOS INTEGRADOS O REVISIONES SISTEMÁTICAS ...................................................121 4.4. ANÁLISIS DE LAS REDES NACIONALES DE MONITOREO HIDROMETEOROLÓGICO EN CUENCAS CON APORTES GLACIARES........................................................................................................122 4.4.1. RED FLUVIOMÉTRICA DGA ...........................................................................................122 4.4.2. RED METEOROLÓGICA DGA..........................................................................................127 4.4.3. RED METEOROLÓGICA DMC .........................................................................................129 5. INTERRELACIÓN GLACIARES-ACTIVIDAD HUMANA ...........................................133 5.1. ANÁLISIS DE LA DEMANDA Y DISPONIBILIDAD ACTUAL Y FUTURA DE LOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS EN CUENCAS SELECCIONADAS CON APORTES GLACIARES ........................................133 5.1.1. DESCRIPCIÓN DE CUENCAS SELECCIONADAS .................................................................133 5.1.2. IMPORTANCIA HÍDRICA DE LOS GLACIARES ....................................................................135 5.1.3. DEMANDAS ACTUALES DE AGUA POR SECTOR PRODUCTIVO ..........................................141 5.1.4. COMPARACIÓN Y PROYECCIONES ..................................................................................145
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