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HOLD (Maintained) True Corporation Regional Morning Notes Wednesday , 16 May 2018 COMPANY RESULTS HOLD True Corporation (TRUE TB) (Maintained) 1Q18: Results Improved But Will Be Under Pressure Again In 2H18 Share Price Bt7.70 TRUE’s core operating loss narrowed to Bt152m compared with a core loss of Target Price Bt7.40 Bt1.14b in 4Q17 and Bt1.15b in 1Q17 due to continue improvement in service Upside -3.9% revenue and good cost control. We see further upside from huge asset divestment gains of Bt28b in 2Q18. However, the company will need to pay more rental expense COMPANY DESCRIPTION to DIF. Hence, we fore see TRUE’s core operation remaining negative for the next Integrated holding company with businesses couple of quarters. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt7.40. Entry price: Bt6.30. in mobile, fixed lines, Internet, and pay-TV. 1Q18 RESULTS STOCK DATA Year to 31 Dec yoy qoq GICS sector Telecommunication (Btm) 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 % chg % chg Services Revenue 32,457 40,752 33,286 2.6 -18.3 Bloomberg ticker: TRUE TB COGS 24,925 26,133 24,324 -2.4 -6.9 Shares issued (m): 33,368.2 SG&A 8,167 9,080 8,673 6.2 -4.5 Market cap (Btm): 256,935.1 EBITDA 7,326 14,933 9,008 23.0 -39.7 Interest expenses -2,039 -1,890 -1,846 -9.5 -2.3 Market cap (US$m): 8,044.8 Net income -1,151 5,411 -387 -66.4 n.a. 3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): 42.4 EPS (Bt) -0.03 0.14 -0.01 -66.4 n.a. Forex gain/(loss) -384 -62 -141 -63.3 127.4 Price Performance (%) Other income/expenses 528 2,493 25 -95.3 127.4 52-week high/low Bt7.95/Bt5.00 Recurring income -1,152 -1,142 -152 -86.8 -86.7 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr YTD SG&A/Sales (%) 25.2 22.3 26.1 6.2 20.3 33.9 23.2 24.2 EBITDA margin (%) 22.6 36.6 27.1 Net profit margin (%) -3.5 13.3 -1.2 Major Shareholders % Source: True Corporation, UOB Kay Hian CP Group 64.7 RESULTS Uniq Network 9.6 Wide Broadcast 7.6 True Corp (TRUE) posted a net loss of Bt387m in 1Q18, vs a net profit of Bt5.4b in 4Q18. The results are in line with consensus estimate. The weak results qoq were mainly due to FY18 NAV/Share (Bt) 3.87 an absence of a huge Bt6.5b asset sale gain in 4Q17. On a yoy basis, the results FY18 Net Debt/Share (Bt) 1.07 improved, with net loss narrowing to Bt387m compared with a loss of Bt1.15b in 1Q17. This was mainly due to on-going growth of the cellular and fixed broadband businesses PRICE CHART with revenues sustaining double-digit growths while selling and administrative expenses (lcy) TRUE CORP PCL TRUE CORP PCL/SET INDEX (%) declined 4.3% yoy. 9.00 140 130 8.00 120 7.00 110 100 6.00 90 KEY FINANCIALS 80 Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 5.00 70 Net turnover 124,719 141,290 167,895 145,573 150,332 4.00 60 800 EBITDA 25,071 39,361 63,684 35,942 34,509 600 Volume (m) 400 Operating profit (492) 5,889 30,411 840 2,409 200 Net profit (rep./act.) (2,814) 2,323 26,623 (1,979) (247) 0 Net profit (adj.) (5,490) (4,210) (1,677) (1,979) (247) May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 EPS (Bt) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Bloomberg PE (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. P/B (x) 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 ANALYST(S) EV/EBITDA (x) 12.0 7.6 4.7 8.3 8.7 Chaiwat Arsirawichai Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +662 659 8301 Net margin (%) (2.3) 1.6 15.9 (1.4) (0.2) [email protected] Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) 51.9 81.7 26.4 29.0 29.8 Interest cover (x) 4.1 4.7 9.0 5.9 5.7 ROE (%) n.a. 1.8 18.1 n.a. n.a. Consensus net profit - - (385) 2,211 3,363 UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 4.35 n.m. n.m. Source: True Corporation, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian n.m. : not meaningful; negative P/E, EV/EBITDA reflected as "n.m." Refer to last page for important disclosures. Draft – for internal use only 1 Regional Morning Notes Wednesday , 16 May 2018 STOCK IMPACT EBITDA PER TONNE – MOBILE OPERATORS Service revenue continued to see qoq and yoy increases in 1Q18. True Group’s consolidated service revenue increased 5.7% yoy and 0.8% qoq to Bt25b, driven by continued growth of the cellular and broadband internet revenues which were supported by an expanding subscriber base, as well as higher data and streaming usage. The fixed- line voice concession ended in Oct 17 lowered both its associated revenue and costs. Excluding the contribution from fixed-line voice concession, 1Q18 consolidated service revenue grew approximately 10% yoy and 2% qoq. TrueMove H’s (mobile business) service revenue increased by 10% yoy and 2% qoq to Bt18.0b in 1Q18 (ADVANC’s service revenue grew by 6.5% yoy and 2.5% qoq and Source: Respective companies, UOB Kay Hian DTAC’s service revenue contracted by 1.1% yoy and 1.2 qoq in 1Q18). TrueMove acquired 412k net adds in 1Q18, increasing its total subscriber base to 27.63m with SOTP VALUATION blended ARPU of Bt207 (vs Bt208 in 4Q17). Bt m Bt/sh Com m ent Mobile business 208,582 6.3 Target EV/EBITDA of 7.0x (+) True Online 56,381 1.7 W ACC of 7.8% TrueOnline’s (internet broadband business) revenue increased 15.2% yoy and 2.6% (+) True Vision 9,000 0.3 Target EV/EBITDA of 9.0x qoq to Bt6.3b, largely driven by solid growth of consumer broadband segment including (+) value of fund retained 23,836 0.7 M arket value EV 297,799 8.9 Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and bundled offerings continued to gain traction. TrueOnline (-) Net debts (52,248) (1.6) expanded its broadband subscriber base to 3.3m, gaining 115,000 subscribers with Equity value 245,552 7.40 ARPU improving to Bt618/month/subscriber in 1Q18, compared with Bt600 in 1Q17 and Source: Respective companies, UOB Kay Hian Bt615 in 4Q17. TrueVisions’ (pay-TV business) service revenue picked up by 4.0% qoq to Bt3.1b, driven mainly by its music entertainment business. Its service revenue was flat yoy as higher music entertainment revenue was offset by lower subscription revenue. Live broadcasting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup during June-July should support TrueVisions’ revenue growth in coming quarters. Regulatory costs dropped 37.2% yoy to Bt664m due to fixed-line phone concession ending as well as positive impact from the new progressive rates of USO and license fee announced in May and December 2017 respectively. However, regulatory cost increased qoq as the full-year positive impact from the new progressive rate of license fee was booked in 4Q17. Core operating expenses declined 0.9% qoq and 1.8% yoy to Bt18.7b due to a 4.3% yoy reduction of selling and administrative expenses despite the full-quarter impact of additional rental payable (trace I) to DIF in 1Q18. Better financial position, but core profit still under pressure. TRUE’s net debt to equity is expected to be lower in 2018 from debt restructuring, and we see further upside from huge asset divestment gains of Bt28b which we expect to be booked in 2Q18. However, the company will need to pay more rental expense to DIF starting from end- 2Q18. Hence, we see TRUE’s core operation remaining negative for the next couple of quarters. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK None. Although 1Q18 core operating loss accounted for only 9% of our full-year forecasts, we keep our projection unchanged as we expect 2H18 earnings to be pressured by higher tower and fiber optic rental fees that will be paid to DIF fund. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION Maintain HOLD with a SOTP target price of Bt7.40. We foresee TRUE facing negative core earnings for the next couple of quarters since 3Q18 onwards on the higher in rental expense related to DIF. Entry price is Bt6.30. Refer to last page for important disclosures. Draft – for internal use only 2 Regional Morning Notes Wednesday , 16 May 2018 PROFIT & LOSS BALANCE SHEET Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Net turnover 141,290 167,895 145,573 150,332 Fixed assets 175,462 157,916 159,495 161,090 EBITDA 39,361 63,684 35,942 34,509 Other LT assets 172,037 160,758 160,182 159,608 Deprec. & amort. 33,472 33,273 35,103 32,100 Cash/ST investment 18,299 15,689 23,727 32,172 EBIT 5,889 30,411 840 2,409 Other current assets 99,513 100,676 104,311 107,277 Total other non-operating income 2,883 500 450 405 Total assets 465,311 435,038 447,716 460,148 Associate contributions 3,154 3,185 3,217 3,249 ST debt 46,752 10,009 21,269 30,364 Net interest income/(expense) (8,294) (7,073) (6,073) (6,073) Other current liabilities 120,383 121,587 122,803 124,031 Pre-tax profit 3,632 27,023 (1,566) (9) LT debt 80,702 47,927 48,407 48,891 Tax (1,316) (400) (413) (237) Other LT liabilities 83,271 94,682 96,377 98,241 Minorities 6 0 0 0 Shareholders' equity 133,533 160,156 158,177 157,931 Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 Minority interest 670 676 683 690 Net profit 2,323 26,623 (1,979) (247) Total liabilities & equity 465,311 435,038 447,716 460,148 Net profit (adj.) (4,210) (1,677) (1,979) (247) CASH FLOW KEY METRICS Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Year to 31 Dec (%) 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Operating 22,846 61,550 28,266 27,646 Profitability Pre-tax profit 478 23,838 (4,783) (3,259) EBITDA margin 27.9 37.9 24.7 23.0 Tax (1,316) (400) (413) (237) Pre-tax margin 2.6 16.1 (1.1) 0.0 Deprec.
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