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Asia Pacific to add 45 million pay TV subscribers

The Asia Pacific pay TV sector is the most vibrant in the world, with subscribers up by 45 million and revenues up by $1.40 billion over the next five years. Pay TV penetration will stay at around 69%.

Asia Pacific pay TV subscribers by country (mil) 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 2019 2020 2025 Others 70.5 72.3 80.9 Japan 17.4 17.6 17.7 Indonesia 11.2 13.5 18.5 S Korea 20.4 20.3 20.2 158.8 161.1 183.1 China 353.4 357.2 356.0

Source: Digital TV Research Ltd China and India together will account for 80% of the region’s 676 million pay TV subscribers by 2025. India will add 24 million pay TV subscribers over the next five years. However, China will peak in 2021 with a slow decline thereafter. OTT penetration and competition will remain much higher in China than in India.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Much of this subscriber growth is down to the number of TV households increasing by 65 million between 2019 and 2025 to 978 million as populations rise and disposable income climbs. The region’s population is 4 billion – more than half of the world’s total.”

For more information on the Asia Pacific OTT TV and Video Forecasts report, please contact: Simon Murray, [email protected], Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in March 2020, this 198-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report comes in three parts:

• Outlook: Forecasts for 22 countries in a 52-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2025 for 22 countries by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers, by pay TV revenues and by major operator. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in a 76-page PDF document.

For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]

Forecasts for the following 22 countries and 73 platforms:

Country No of ops Platform forecasts Australia 1 Bangladesh 1 Akash Cambodia 3 CDN; One TV; One China 4 China Radio & TV; China Telecom; BesTV; China Unicom 2 i-cable; Now TV India 12 ; GTPL; Siti; In Digital; DEN; Dish TV; ; Videocon; Airtel; Direct; Independent; MTNL Indonesia 7 Linknet; ; Indovision; Top TV; Okevision; Orange TV; Telkom Japan 3 SkyPerfecTV; J:Com; NTT Laos Malaysia 2 ; TM Mongolia 2 Univision; DDish Myanmar 2 SkyNet; 4TV/MRTV (Forever) Nepal 1 Dish Media New Zealand 2 Sky; Vodafone Pakistan 1 PTCL 2 /; 2 StarHub; TV S Korea 9 LG Hellovision; T Broad; D’Live; CMB; Hyundai HCN; KT Olleh; Skylife; B TV; LG U+ 2 Dialog; Peo Taiwan 4 Taiwan Broadband; TWM; CNS; CHT 3 Truevisions; TOT; AIS Vietnam 8 SCTV; VTVCab; HTV-CMS; VNPT; Viettel; FPT; K+; Viva TV

SAMPLE: Sri Lanka pay TV insight

• About 64% of the 4.91 million households have a TV set – or 3.14 million TV households by end-2019. There will be 3.61 million TV households by end- 2025, or 69% of all homes. Digital TV penetration reached 92% of TV households by end-2019, with 100% expected by 2025.

Main assumptions behind the forecasts • India’s Dish launched a lower-cost satellite TV platform. Prepaid satellite TV is taking off. • Revised analog terrestrial switch-off is set for 2020, although DTT operations started as late as 2018 due to a change in adopted. Source: Digital TV Research

• Pay TV penetration was at 90% by end-2019, and will fall slowly to 89% by 2025. Pay TV revenues will be $183 million by 2025; up from $162 million in 2019.

• Piracy is a major problem, with about 300,000 homes receiving illegal satellite TV signals from 500 operators according to the Ministry of Mass Media & Information. Charges from the pirate operators are only LKR100-300/month ($0.66-1.98).

Dialog TV subscriber growth (000) Total Of which Of which Prepaid % postpaid prepaid total 4Q13 332 306 26 7.8 4Q14 452 366 86 19.0 4Q15 650 428 222 34.2 4Q16 839 431 408 48.6 4Q17 979 433 546 55.7 4Q18 1,146 471 674 58.8 4Q19 1,433 530 903 63.0 Source: Dialog Telekom

• Pay TV leader Dialog Satellite TV had 1.43 million satellite TV subs by end- 2019. Much of its fast, recent growth is down to the rapid acceptance of its prepaid platform. Prepaid subscribers pay less than postpaid subs so ARPUs will fall. We forecast 1.81 million subs by 2025. operates the OTT platform, which includes access to several Indian platforms and (LKR449/month).

• Dialog also operates the FTA DTT platform. Majority owned by Malaysia’s Axiata Group (83.32%), plc is also a key broadband and mobile operator (14.89 million subscribers by end-2019, of which 56% had smartphones) in Sri Lanka. As well as , mobile subscribers can access India’s Zee 5 OTT platform (LKR350/month).

• India’s Dish TV launched a satellite TV operation in Sri Lanka in February 2014 – and won a license in November! The official launch was in May 2015. However, operations ceased in November 2019. Dish TV Lanka is 70% owned by the Indian company and 30% by Satnet (the local representative for TV).

Sri Lanka Telecom subscriber growth Peo TV Broadband Mobile 4Q13 87,693 423,522 4Q14 124,851 490,048 5,400,000 4Q15 174,278 531,437 5,900,000 4Q16 269,458 634,097 6,400,000 4Q17 352,360 809,917 6,800,000 4Q18 415,000 966,925 7,600,000 Source: SLT

• Sri Lanka Telecom launched the Peo TV IPTV service (also known as SLT Visioncom) in September 2008. After a slow start, IPTV subscriptions are taking off, with 471,000 recorded by end-2019. SLT wants 1 million Peo TV subscribers (including OTT) by 2021. We forecast 679,000 subs by 2025. An OTT platform followed in partnership with India’s Hungama.

• SLT also offers quad-play services. The company is constructing a next generation fiber network (up to 100Mbps. Branded as Smartline). SLT is 49.50% owned by the Treasury and 44.98% by Global Holdings.

• TRC estimated 1.65 million fixed broadband and 11.75 million mobile broadband subscribers by end-2019.

• DTT will start in 2021. The Ministry of Mass Media and Information wants national analog switch-off by end-2020 (delayed by three years on the original plan). Although originally adopted the DVB-T2 standard, ISDB-T was chosen in September 2014 after the Japanese government offered a loan to cover the transition costs.

Sri Lanka pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Total households (000) TV households (000) Digital cable subs (000) Analog cable subs (000) Pay IPTV subscribers (000) Pay satellite TV subscribers (000) Free-to-air satellite TV households (000) Analog terrestrial hholds (000) Primary FTA DTT hholds (000) Primary Pay DTT hholds (000)

Digital homes (000) Analog homes (000) Pay TV subscribers (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH Analog cable subs/TV HH Pay IPTV subs/TV HH Pay Satellite TV/TV HH Free-to-air satellite TV/TV HH Analog terrestrial/TVHH Primary FTA DTT/TV HH Primary pay DTT/TV HH

TVHH/Total HH Digital/TV HH Analog/TV HH Pay TV Subs/TV HH

Stand-alone digital cable subs (000) Dual-play digital cable subs (000) Triple-play digital cable subs (000)

Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000) Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000) Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Sri Lanka pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenues (US$ million) Stand-alone digital cable revs Dual-play digital cable TV revs Triple-play digital cable TV revs Digital cable TV subs revenues Digital cable TV on-demand revs Digital cable TV revenues Analog cable TV subs revs Cable TV revenues

Stand-alone IPTV revenues Dual-play IPTV revenues Triple-play IPTV revenues IPTV subscription revenues IPTV on-demand revenues IPTV revenues

Satellite TV subscription revs Satellite TV on-demand revs Satellite TV revenues

DTT subscription revs DTT on-demand revenues DTT revenues

Subscription revenues On-demand revenues Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Stand-alone digital cable subs Dual-play digital cable TV subs Triple-play digital cable TV subs Ave digital cable (subs & VOD) Analog cable TV subs Stand-alone IPTV subs Dual-play IPTV subs Triple-play IPTV subs Average IPTV (subs and VOD) Pay Satellite TV (subs) Pay Satellite TV (subs and PPV) Pay DTT (subs) Pay DTT (subs and PPV) Average monthly ARPU

Sri Lanka pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Pay TV subscribers by operator (000) Dialog (satellite) Peo (IPTV) Others

Share of pay TV subs by operator % Dialog (satellite) Peo (IPTV) Others

Subscription & VOD revenues ($ million) Dialog (satellite) Peo (IPTV) Others

Share of pay TV revenues by operator % Dialog (satellite) Peo (IPTV) Others

Sri Lanka pay TV outlook

Homes by platform (000) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 A terres 133 43 48 43 0 Pay DTT 0 0 0 0 0 Free DTT 0 0 0 20 123 Free satellite 275 267 258 258 282 Pay Satellite 1,240 1,433 1,516 1,590 1,806 IPTV 415 471 516 557 679 A Cable 397 220 113 33 0 D cable 596 707 774 812 723

Revenues by platform ($m) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Pay DTT 0 0 0 0 0 Pay Satellite 85 97 104 108 122 IPTV 19 21 24 25 30 A Cable 20 13 7 3 0 D cable 27 31 35 37 32

Sri Lanka pay TV outlook

Pay TV subs by operator (000) 3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Others 1,087 926 887 845 723 Peo 415 471 516 557 679 Dialog 1,146 1,433 1,516 1,590 1,806

Pay TV revenues by operator ($m) 200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Others 53 48 42 40 32 Peo 19 21 24 25 30 Dialog 79 93 104 108 122

Digital TV Research publication schedule Title Publication Price 2020 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 Latin America OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 North America OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £600/€660/$720 North America Pay TV Forecasts February £600/€660/$720 SVOD Platform Forecasts February £800/€880/$960 Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1320/$1440 Africa OTT TV and Video Forecasts January £1200/€1320/$1440 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1320/$1440 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV and January £1200/€1320/$1440 Video Forecasts

2019 Pay TV Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300 SVOD Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300 OTT TV and Video Databook September £750/€900/$975 SVOD Databook September £750/€900/$975 Pay TV Databook September £750/€900/$975 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340 Global SVOD Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global AVOD Forecasts June £750/€900/$975 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts June £1000/€1200/$1300 Western Europe OTT TV and Video June £1000/€1200/$1300 Forecasts Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 Eastern Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 Asia Pacific OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300

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