Early Warning Bulletin Covers the period August 16-31, 2012 EWRThe 6th round Directorate, of PSNP has been DRMFSS, 88% completed MoA and was dispatched in Somalia www.alone. Thedppc.gov.et 7th round of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR KIREMT 2012 The seasonal rain is expected to start within the normal onset periods over most parts of the country, although some parts of the northeastern regions will have slightly late onset. Close to normal cessation of Kiremt rain is expected over much of the Kiremt rain benefiting areas, while early withdrawal is anticipated in some places. Near normal rainfall is anticipated over north-eastern Kiremt rain benefiting areas with slightly below normal rainfall expected in some parts of the country. Normal to above normal rainfall is anticipated over western, central and southwestern sectors of the nation. In general, normal Kiremt rainfall is likely to prevail over the major portions of Kiremt rain benefiting areas of the country. Heavy rains are less likely to occur over flood prone areas, where they do occur, it may result in flash floods, particularly along the river banks and low lying areas of the country. WEATHER OUTLOOK: AUGUST 16-31, 2012 Under normal circumstances at this time of the year due to well established weather systems, wide spread rainfall amount and distribution is supposed to cover most parts of Kiremt rain benefiting areas. Therefore, as per NMA weather analysis, weather systems will strengthen for the remainder of the month in most parts of Kiremt rain benefiting areas. Furthermore, heavy falls together with hailstorms is likely over some parts of Meher producing areas. Therefore, attention should be given, particularly in low-lying areas and near riverbanks, including in areas where the soil has low percolation capacity in order to reduce the effect of the expected flood hazard. In general, during the second half of August 2011, widespread rainfall is anticipated over most parts of Meher growing areas of the country. Thus normal to above normal rainfall is expected over Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, and Gambella, western and central Oromiya, including SNNPR. Near normal rainfall is anticipated over Afar, eastern Oromiya, Dire Dawa, Harari and northern parts of Somali. Consequently, Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoARD Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected] [2] this condition would have a positive impact on the normal growth and development of Meher crops and the availability of pasture and drinking water in pastoral areas. The rest of the country, like southern Oromiya and southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia will be sunny with partly cloudy condition during the period under review. RELIEF DISPATCH INFORMATION AS OF 15TH, AUGUST 2012 As can be seen from the table below, as of the 15th August 2012, the total relief food dispatch status stood at 49%. The regional dispatch was complete for SNNPR. 5th Round 2012 Relief food dispatch status made by DRMFSS, JEOP and WFP (H&Spokes), as of 15 Aug 2012 Region Benef Allocated amount (MT) Dispatched amount (MT) Dispatch status (%) DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total Afar 145,189 2,264 426 0 2,690 0 426 426 0 100 0 16 Amhara 331,617 2,955 3,188 0 6,143 1,561 3,188 4,749 53 100 0 77 B.Gumuz 33,432 620 0 620 300 300 0 0 0 0 Gambella 48,100 890 0 890 400 400 45 0 0 45 Oromia 1,093,427 14,642 4,589 0 19,231 6,000 1,868 7,868 41 41 0 41 SNNPR 139,573 1,886 503 0 2,389 1,881 503 2,384 100 100 0 100 Somali 1,115,806 0 1,143 19,527 20,670 1,143 10,935 12,078 0 100 56 58 Tigray 346,202 4,115 2,426 0 6,541 300 419 719 7 17 0 11 Dire- 28,972 0 537 0 537 342 342 0 64 0 64 Dawa Harari 4,000 74 0 0 74 74 74 0 0 0 0 Total 3,286,318 27,446 12,812 19,527 59,785 10,516 7,889 10,935 29,340 38 62 56 49 As can be seen from the table below, as of the 15th August 2012, the PSNP June allocation stood 93% completed. The remainder to be dispatched is to the Somali region-currently at 82%. PSNP Allocation and dispatched food as of 15 Aug 2012 April allocation May allocation June allocation Allocated Dispatched Dispatch Allocated Dispatched Dispatch Allocated Dispatched Dispatch Region (mt) (mt) status (%) (mt) (mt) status (%) (mt) (mt) status (%) Oromia 13,147 12,798 97 13,041 12,991 100 0 0 0 SNNP 15,612 15,612 100 15,611 15,608 100 0 0 0 Tigray 10,121 10,121 100 11,050 11,050 100 3,262 3,262 100 Afar 7,083 7,083 100 7,083 7,083 100 7,083 7,002 99 Amhara 14,110 14,109 100 16,001 16,000 100 5,633 5,633 100 Somali 9,445 9,422 100 9,445 9,067 96 9,459 7,802 82 Harari 0 0 0 0 0 726 726 100 Total 69,518 69,145 99 72,231 71,799 99 26,163 24,425 93 Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoARD Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia email: [email protected] [3] FLOOD ALERT The western half of the country will continue to receive normal to above normal rains during August and September 2012, posing increased risk of flooding. Areas facing the highest risk constitute western Amhara (areas surrounding Lake Tana and Rib, Gumera, Gilgel Abay, Dirma and Megech rivers); Gambella (Baro, Gilo and Akobo rivers) and western SNNPR (South Omo and Woito rivers). Middle and lower Awash catchments are also likely to face short-lived flood risks. Localized flooding has been reported from many areas subsequent to normal to above-normal rainfall through July 2012. During July some 22 woredas in Oromia, Amhara, Afar and SNNP regions reported incidences of flooding including some localized areas in Wadla and Lasta woredas (North Wollo); Dembia, Lay Armacho, Tach Armacho, Gonder Zuria, Alefa, Beyeda, and West Belessa woredas (North Gondar); Shebele Bernta and Goncha woredas (East Gojam); and Mecha woredas (West Gojam zone) of Amhara Region; Ziway Dugda, Dodota, Hitosa, Jeju, Chole, Merti, Tiyo, and Sude woredas (Arsi Zone) of Oromia, and Berhale, Abaala and Dalol woredas ( Zone 2) of Afar Regions. The floods have reportedly displaced 1,731 people and damaged farmlands and some public facilities. Regional authorities, DRMFSS and partners have been providing assistance to the affected community including provision of relief food and non food items (NFIs). The forecasted normal to above normal rains in the western parts of the country (western and central Tigray; western and central Amhara; Benishangul-Gumuz; Gambela; western and central Oromia and western parts of SNNPR) compounded with the already saturated soil from normal to above normal rains in the first two months of kiremt 2012 and the increasing levels of rivers and dams poses a risk of floods in the remainder of August and September. Flooding in the eastern half of the country is less likely as normal rainfall is expected in these areas in the period August through September 2012. Expansion and increase in surface water levels in Lake Tana and an anticipated subsequent overflow of the Rib and Gumera rivers in South Gondor, Gilgel Abay river in Western Gojjam, and Dirma and Megech rivers in North Gondar will likely cause flooding in western and northern Amhara particularly in Fogera, Libo Kemekem and Dera woredas of south Gonder; Dembia and Quara of north Gonder. In Gambella, the level of major rivers including Baro, Gilo and Akobo, is rising posing increasing threats of flooding in flood prone woredas of Akobo, Lare, Itang, Gambella Zuria, Gambella Town, Jor, Gog, Jikawo, Wanthoa, and Abobo. Flood prone areas in SNNPR at risk of flooding during the current season include Dasenech and Nyangatom woredas in the lower streams of the Omo River, and areas surrounding the Woito River in South Omo zone. In Oromia Region, flood prone woredas in East Shewa are at risk of flooding. Most vulnerable woredas include Welenchiti, Becho, Sebeta Awas, Illu, Ejere, Dugda Bora and Bosset. In order to minimize the likely adverse impacts of flooding, appropriate mitigation and preparedness measures should be undertaken. These activities should include dissemination of early warning information to populations at risk, enhancing communication linkages between woreda officials in highland areas that receive heavy rainfall and those downstream that are at risk of flooding, dam management, strengthening flood protection structures, reactivation of regional flood taskforces in areas that are likely to be affected, Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoARD Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia email: [email protected] [4] and preparation of evacuation plans. Efforts should be placed to strengthen regular monitoring in flood prone areas and also to facilitate multi-agency assessment to ensure that comprehensive humanitarian needs are identified and addressed. The flood taskforce also recommends the preparation of Flood Contingency Plan for high risk areas – areas surrounding Western Amhara (areas surrounding Lake Tana, and Rib, Gumera, Gilgel Abay, Dirma and Megech rivers); Gambella (Baro, Gilo and Akobo rivers), South Omo (Omo and Woito rivers) and parts of the Awash River catchments. Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoARD Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O.