Guangxi Poverty Reduction Program for Results (P163138)
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Public Disclosure Authorized CHINA GUANGXI POVERTY REDUCTION PROGRAM FOR RESULTS (P163138) Public Disclosure Authorized TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT Public Disclosure Authorized May 17, 2018 World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Acronyms AFUP Annual Fund Use Plan 5YP Five-Year Plan CPRF Consolidated Poverty Reduction Funds CPRP Consolidated Poverty Reduction Program DLI Disbursement Linked Indicators GoC Government of China GRPRP Guangxi Rural Poverty Reduction Program IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development RDOA Regional Department of Agriculture (Guangxi) RDOF Regional Department of Finance (Guangxi) PAP Program Action Plan PCO Program Cooperation Office PDHEs Poverty Reduction Dragonhead Enterprises PforR Program-for-Results PRO Poverty Reduction Office PROSC Poverty Reduction Office of the State Council MOF Ministry of Finance NDRC National Development and Reform Commission NPRS National Poverty Registration System RA Results Areas RDRC Regional Development and Reform Commission (Guangxi) RCDC Regional Center for Disease Control WB World Bank Contents I. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION .............................................................................................................. 1 A. National Rural Poverty Reduction Program ..................................................................................... 1 B. Guangxi Rural Poverty Reduction Program (GRPRP) .................................................................... 3 C. Guangxi Consolidated Poverty Reduction Program and the “PforR” ............................................ 4 II. DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT OF PROGRAM STRATEGIC RELEVANCE AND SOUNDNESS ...................................................................................................................................... 10 A. Strategic Relevance ............................................................................................................................ 10 B. Technical Soundness .......................................................................................................................... 19 C. Institutional Arrangements for the PforR........................................................................................ 39 D. Disbursement Arrangements ............................................................................................................. 42 III. DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT OF PROGRAM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK ...... 42 A. Expenditure Scope .............................................................................................................................. 43 B. Program Financing ............................................................................................................................. 45 C. Expenditure Performance.................................................................................................................. 47 D. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 50 IV. DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT OF PROGRAM RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND M&E .............................................................................................................................................................. 50 Results Area 1 Improved Income Generation of the Poor .................................................................... 51 Results Area 2 Improved Infrastructure for Rural Poor ...................................................................... 58 Results Area 3 Cross-cutting Issues for Enhanced Program Implementation .................................... 61 V. PROGRAM ECONOMIC EVALUATION ..................................................................................... 81 VI. IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT PLAN ........................................................................................ 85 VII. PROGRAM ACTIONAL PLAN ................................................................................................. 87 Index of Tables Table 1: Program Financing, 2018-2021 ...................................................................................................... 5 Table 2: 28 selected poverty-stricken counties, Guangxi 2016 .................................................................... 6 Table 3: Official estimates of Poverty in China, 1980-2017 ...................................................................... 11 Table 4: Top five provinces by number of poor in 2016 ............................................................................ 11 Table 5: Multiple regression of policy variables upon changes in poverty, selected counties, Guangxi 2013-2016 ................................................................................................................................................... 17 Table 6: Profile of Regional and National Level Poverty Reduction Leading Enterprises: 2010 .............. 23 Table 7: Selected Indicators of Agricultural Leading Enterprises in Targeted Poverty Counties and at the Regional Level: 2016 .................................................................................................................................. 24 Table 8: The Program Expenditure Framework by Results Areas, 2018-2020 (US$ million) ................... 43 Table 9: Outlay of the Program Expenditure Framework, by programs ..................................................... 44 Table 10: Funding Sources of Consolidated Poverty Reduction Program in 2017 .................................... 45 Table 11: Budget Execution Rate of 28 Targeted Counties by Major Sub-Programs in 2017 ................... 49 Table 12: Results Framework Matrix ......................................................................................................... 66 Table 13: Indicator Description .................................................................................................................. 68 Table 14: Disbursement Linked Indicators Matrix ..................................................................................... 74 Table 15: DLI Verification Protocol Table ................................................................................................. 77 Index of Figures Figure 1: Government Program and PforR ................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Demographic characteristics of the poor in selected counties, Guangxi 2016 .... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 3: Dynamics and drivers of poverty reduction in selected counties, Guangxi 2013-2016 .............. 15 Figure 4: Distribution of main cause of poverty, 54 poverty stricken counties, Guangxi 2016 ................. 18 Figure 5: Institutional Arrangement Framework, Guangxi ......................................................................... 41 Figure 6: Budget Predictability versus Execution Rate of 28 Targeted Counties in 2017 .......................... 47 Figure 7: Results Chain for improved income generation .......................................................................... 52 Figure 8: Results Chain for improved infrastructure .................................................................................. 58 Figure 9: Cross-cutting Issues for Enhanced Program Implementation ..................................................... 62 I. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION A. National Rural Poverty Reduction Program 1. Poverty Eradication Program under China’s Thirteenth Five Year Plan (13th 5YP). The 13th 5YP sets a national-level goal of eliminating extreme rural poverty by 2020. Among its major objectives - as delineated in Chapter 3 of the Plan- it includes “Improve standards of living and quality of life” and, in particular, it sets an explicit poverty eradication objective as follows: “All rural residents falling below China’s current poverty line will be able to lift themselves out of poverty, all poor counties will be able to rid themselves of poverty, and poverty alleviation will be achieved in all regions.” The plan allocates a full section to the directives on the “Fight Against Poverty”, where it underlines the importance of focusing poverty efforts both on the poor and on poor areas: “We will identify and register those living in poverty throughout the country …(and) will strengthen dynamic statistical monitoring of these populations….” The plan also includes a list of poverty alleviation programs in eight fields: locally viable industries, labor services, relocation from inhospitable areas, transportation, ecological conservation, education, health care and social security, and finance. 2. The 13th 5YP Poverty Reduction Plan also introduces national and provincial assessment mechanism of the implementation progress of poverty reduction programs. The focus of this new assessment mechanism includes: (i) number of poor, income growth rates, and other poverty reduction results; (ii) confirmation of households, villages, and counties’ exit from poverty; (iii) poor’s satisfaction rate with the work of village poverty reduction work teams and the poverty reduction assistance received from the responsible individuals listed in their NPRS records; and (iv) financial performance of the special poverty reduction funds. The 5YP also underlines the importance of responsibility and performance evaluation for poverty alleviation programs and staff: “We will strengthen poverty-alleviation performance evaluation for officials, (…) We will establish a system for overseeing poverty reduction efforts, and strengthen corresponding accountability.”