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Investment Daily Investment Daily 31 March 2021 Major Market Indicators Market Overview 30 Mar 29 Mar 26 Mar Mkt. Turn.(mn) 169,300 190,300 183,900 Resistance at 20 Day SMA; Upcoming Focus will switch to macro Stock Advances 1,014 930 1,141 factor Stock Declines 719 824 628 Dow Jones Index hit new record. And China stock market rose. Hang Seng Index rose 239 HSI 28,578 28,338 28,336 points to 28,577 on Tuesday. H-share Index rose 77 points to 11,020. Tech Index rose 199 Change +239 +2 +437 points to 8,180. Market turnover was HK$169.3 billion. Health care sector performed well. HSI Turn.($bn) 66.52 78.36 76.55 Innovent Bio(1801) jumped 6.0% while JD Health(6618) surged 7.6%. Hong Kong HSCEI 11,021 10,943 10,966 property sector rose. SHK Property(16) gained 5.0% while New World Development(17) Change +78 -23 +222 advanced 5.2%. HSCEI Turn.($bn) 66.46 82.42 74.42 Consumer Confidence Index soared obviously in March and is much higher than expectation. President Biden will announce a sizable infrastructure investment plan on HSI Technical Indicators Wednesday. Together with progress on vaccination, it boosted the outlook for a broad economic recovery and rising inflation. 10-days MA 28,588 50-days MA 29,321 US stocks consolidated on Tuesday, with the three major US stock index fell 0.1-0.3% 250-days MA 25,901 respectively. On the other hand, 10 Year US treasury yield once rose to 1.77% but finally 14-days RSI 46.46 closed flat at 1.73%. Besides, US dollar index maintained current strength, rose 0.4% to Primary resistance 28,815 93.3, gold price fell 1.7% to US$1,684 per ounce. Primary support 28,200 Asian stock market remained firm on early trading session on Wednesday. Together with HS CEI Technical Indicators anticipated quarter end window dressing activities, HK stock is likely to range trade today, 10-days MA 11,105 Hang Seng Index resistance is at 20 Day SMA(28,815). Hong Kong stock’s result 50-days MA 11,483 announcement period near the end. Investor focus will switch to macro factor. Of which, 250-days MA 10,374 US treasury yield and US exchange rate continued to move upward, which is not favorable 14-days RSI 44.58 to emerging stock markets including HK stock. It will limit HK stock short term upside. Primary resistance 11,483 Primary support 10,800 Hong Kong stock connect recorded net inflow of HK$3.3bn on Tuesday. Of which, buying concentrated on new economy stocks, Tencent(0700) recorded most net buy, while HSI Futures Innovent Bio(1801) and Xiaomi (1810) also recorded fund net inflow. However, with the rate hike concern, as well as valuation of the sector remain high, it would limit the short 30 Mar 29 Mar 26 Mar term upside. On the other hand, BOCHK(2388) result is inline with market expectation. Apr 28,525 28,385 28,920 Since it will benefit from rate hike and further integration between HK/China financial Volume 116,744 122,499 162,188 markets, investors could accumulate during weakness. Open interests 112,252 37,624 83,225 May 28,395 28,338 28,252 HSI Chart Volume - 97,924 62,097 Open interests - 106,411 82,124 HSCEI Futures 30 Mar 29 Mar 26 Mar Apr 10,999 10,946 10,957 Volume 71,930 130,351 169,175 Open interests 157,408 70,342 146,728 May 10,957 10,930 10,943 Sources ：Google Volume - 117,723 104,783 Open interests - 154,983 124,656 Investment Daily Daily Focus BOCHK(2388): Result Comment BOCHK(2388) FY20 net profit fell 17.7% yoy to HK$26,487mn. Final BOCHK(2388) Info DPS fell 19.8% yoy to HK$0.795. Total DPS dropped 19.1% yoy to Closed price 28.4 HK$1.242 while dividend payout ratio is 49.6%. The Group said that its future dividend payout ratio will maintain at 40-60%. Expected P/B (X) 0.96 Expected Dividend Owing to major Central bank adopt very low interest rate policy, BOCHK 4.7 yield (%) adjusted net interest margin fell 36 basis points yoy to 1.33% in 2020. 52 week high 29.0 Despite a 7.3% loan advance increase, its net interest income still fell 52 week low 19.9 14.3% yoy to HK$34,738mn. On the other hnad, its net fee and 14RSI 64 commission revenue fell 0.7% yoy to HK$10,842mn. Owing to HIBOR further decline in 2H20, its NIM fell to 1.17% in 3Q20 and 1.16% in 4Q20. Given the ample market liquidity in Hong Kong, the rebound is likely to be limited for HIBOR, its NIM might still have pressure in 2021. However, with mid to high digit loan growth, its net interest income will stabilize in 2021. Its loan provision charges tose 34.4% yoy to HK$2,489mn, or a credit cost of 0.17% in 2020. Its NPL ratio increased 2 basis points to 0.27% in 4Q20. However, NPL coverage ratio rose to 230% in FY20. Together with vaccination roll out, HK economy is likely to be bottom in 2021, credit cost might not increase further in 2021. Overall speaking, BOCHK FY20 result is inline with expectation. Its earnings outlook in 2021 is likely to stay flat as the NIM remain at low level. However, its current valuation is 0.96x prospective P/B and over 4% dividend yield, valuation is not high. Since BOCHK will benefit from rate hike and further integration between HK/China financial markets, investors could accumulate during weakness. Analyst: Samuel Chua, CFA http://www.kgieworld.com 31 March 2021 2 Investment Daily BYD(1211) 1QFY21 Guidance Missed Expectation BYD(1211) announced annual result for the year ended 31 December BYD(1211) Info 2020. Net profit grew 1.6 times to RMB 4.23 billion which was close to Closed price 170.4 low end of expectation range. A large proportion of profit came from BYD Electronics(285). BYD 20Q4 net profit was RMB820 million, Expected P/E (X) 63 Expected Dividend which dropped 53% QoQ. 0.1 yield (%) Revenue was RMB153.5 billion, up 26% YoY, which was in line with 52 week high 278.4 expectation. Revenue from the automobiles and related products, and 52 week low 36.6 other products amounted to approximately RMB81,958 million, 14RSI 38 representing a year-on-year increase of 37.66%; the revenue from the mobile handset components, assembly service and other products amounted to approximately RMB59,354 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.01%; and the revenue from the rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic business amounted to approximately RMB11,705 million, representing a year-on year increase of 20.44%. These three business segments accounted for 53.40%, 38.68% and 7.63% of the Group’s total revenue, respectively. FY20 gross profit margin was 17.8%, up around 3 ppt. But 20Q4 gross profit margin dropped to 16.6% which disappointed market. FY20 government subsidy which was relevant to revenue declined 9.3% to RMB1.29 billion. BYD forecasts 21Q1 net profit amounts to RMB200 million to RMB300 million, which increases by 77.56% to 166.34% as compared with the corresponding period last year. It was below market expectation. Management said that 21Q1 automobile business would under pressure since the company would need to de-stock PV which currently equips NCM battery. Besides, even though DMI hybrid order was strong, ICE sales was negatively impacted at this moment. Management expects that after completion of de-stocking, profit will gradually improve. Forward looking, the company aims that FY21 sales volume reached 555,000 which will increase 29% compared to FY20 level. Overall speaking, we are still positive towards BYD continuous strength of Han sales, new product cycle, blade battery business development and potential semiconductor spin-off. However, chips shortage and raw material cost hike are common headwind of automobile sector. And decreasing EV subsidy pose further pressure to profit outlook. FY21 forecast P/E is 63x which is higher than last three year average 44x. Investors are suggested to wait and see. Analyst: Tracy Chan Lok Yee http://www.kgieworld.com 31 March 2021 3 Investment Daily China Resources Land (1109) Result Comment China Resources Land (1109) announced annual result ended December China Resources Land (1109) Info 2020. Revenue amounted to RMB179.6 billion, up by 21.2% YoY. Net Closed price 39.2 profit was RMB29.8 billion, up by 3.6&. Core net profit rose 11.6% to RMB24.14 billion. Revenue and profit were in line with market Expected P/E (X) 8.5 Expected Dividend expectation. A final dividend of HKD1.312 was declared, full year 3.8 yield (%) dividend was HKD1.48, up by 17% YoY. 52 week high 41.3 By segments, revenue from development properties was RMB157.1 52 week low 27.0 billion, up by 23.5%. Development property gross profit margin 14RSI 61 decreased to 29.1%, dragged consolidated gross profit margin by 7 ppt to 30.9%. Booking average selling price fell about 10% to RMB15,063 per square meter as Tier 1 city revenue contribution decreased. On the other hand, in 2020, contracted sales rose 17.5% to RMB285 billion with 7.1% increased contracted GFA of 14.187 million square meters. China Resources Land achieved the sales target of RMB262 billion in 2020.
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