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BYD Electronic | 285.HK BYD Electronic | 285.HK Rating Neutral Maintain Assembly service dragged on margin Target Price HKD 10.15 Current price HKD 11.40 Upside -10.9% % 1H19 result missed on metal casing margin deterioration and 26 August 2019 increased assembly service BYDE 1H19 net profit with revenue and net profit attributable to Hayman Chiu shareholders +19.3%/-49.3% to RMB23,280mn and RMB575mn [email protected] respectively. Though sales was ~9% ahead of market consensus, (852) 2235 7677 EPS was 50% of market consensus due to the GM shortfall which came in at 6.7% (vs. 1H19 consensus at ~9.3%), and GM deteriorated to 5.5% in 2Q19. The increase in sales was driven by Trading data both glass casing and plastic casings, while IoT (new intelligent 52-Week Range (HK$) 14.92/7.88 product) and assembly service grew 30%/38% Yoy respectively. 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 10.24 However, the plunge in metal casing GM more than offset the No of Shares (m) 2,253.2 positives, the blended GM miss was driven by i) weak demand Market Cap (HK$m) 25,686.5 for metal casing from Chinese OEMS, especially in May and Major Shareholders (%) BYD (65.6%) June when US government placed Huawei on its restricted Auditors Ernst & Young entity list and led to order disruption, ii) Increased sales Result Due FY19: Mar 2020 contribution from low margin assembly business (1H19: 51% of sales vs. 44% in 1H18), as FLEX has been eliminated from Huawei’s supplly chain and BYDE would gain market share as a Company description result. Established in 2002, BYDE is a leading manufacturer of handset components and Well exposed to increasing glass covers adoption by Chinese modules, such as plastic casing, metal casings, flaghsip smartphones; Entering US client supply chain and keypads. It also provides assembly services for handsets. Its parent company, BYD (1211.HK) With increasing adoption in full-screen OLED and wireless charging technology, as well as less signal interference (vs. metal casing), we keeps some of handset components and are seeing increasing penetration in glass covers by smartphone modules, such as LCD displays, FPCs, and players. The glass cover market was originally dominated by Biel camera modules. Its customers include Samsung Crystal and Lens Tech (300433 CH) (a duopoly with >90% market (005930 KS), Nokia (NOK.US), Huawei, BBK, share) and after years of effort made by BYDE, they managed to OPPO, Toshiba (6502.JP), Asus (2357.TT), HTC gradually break into Android camp’s supply chain and become the 3rd (2498.TT) and HP (HPQ.US). glass cover supplier (based on common industry practice, we believe their order allocation would be low-mid teens at the initial stage). Price chart According to Counterpoint Research, glass covers penetration rate HK$ would increase from 7% to 60% in 2020E, BYDE would be 30.0 well-exposed to this blue ocean as they have already penetrated into 25.0 core clients in Android camp and became their major casing supplier. 20.0 Recent projects that BYDE took part include Samsung Galaxy S10, 15.0 Huawei P30, Vivo X27, OPPO Reno and Xiaomi Mi 9. Meanwhile BYDE is also entering a renowned US consumer electronics OEM 10.0 supply chain, and act as a first step to further explore other business 5.0 0.0 17 18 19 18 19 16 17 - - - - - - opportunities with this US client in the long run. - Feb Feb Feb Aug Aug Aug Aug BYDE began construction of the 3D glass projects in Shantou and Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL Huizhou in May and in July 2017, with total designed capacity ~200mn pc when fully ramped up. As glass casing product yield expected to further improve, together with higher GM than metal casing (currently GM at ~high-teens vs. metal casing GM at low-mid teens in 1H19, based on our estimation), we expect glass casings GM to gradually improve to mid-20s. We expect BYDE’s glass cover shipment would grow ~38.4% CAGR from ~80mn pieces in FY19E to 153mn pieces in FY21E. We expect ASP would be lowered at ~4% CAGR in FY18-FY21E as we see mid-high end smartphones would also adopt glass covers, hence implying a shift of product mix and lower ASP for BYDE. Page 1 of 6 Upcoming growth engines: IoT and automotive intelligent segment ; Diversifying product mix favours re-rating story in the long run We recognized BYDE’s investment in new business segments (IoT and automotive intelligent segment) began to bear fruit in FY18. Total revenue grew >80% to ~RMB5.6bn in FY18 and accounted for 13.6% of total revenue (vs ~8% in FY17). In 1Q19, IoT segment revenue came in at RMB2.6bn and accounted for ~11% of revenue in 1H19. BYDE has established in-depth collaboration with renowned clients in the fields of intelligent home, gaming, commerce, IoT and emerging electronics products, which we believe BYDE will ride on this foundation and continue to ramp up IoT segment through taking part in clients’ projects. For automotive intelligent segment (incl. central control system , communication modules, multi-media modules etc.) , BYDE revenue doubled Yoy to RMB 400mn in 1Q19 and further grew 90% QoQ to RMB761mn (~3.2% of 1H19 revenue). As their in-house developed DiLink system would be adopted on all BYD 2018 new car models such as Qing Pro,Tang. This marks their fist step into automobile segment and would be another long term growth engine for BYDE. DiLink is a new connected car platform that features input from 341 sensors and has 66 control parameters. DiLink is the first large-scale opening of the sensor and executive systems of the car which allows developers to further improve the system. BYD will become the first automaker to open its car hardware system. In addition to DiLink, BYDE’s multi-media intelligent systems, we believe BYDE would be able to win new orders from both domestic and foreign automotive OEMs. In addition, BYDE began to see increasing business opportunities in IoV (Internet of Vehicles) related products, as they have built up relationships with players like Continental, Harman, Gemalto, and Nvidia . Exhibit 1: BYD’s DilLink System Source: BYD 2018 Annual Report, cleantechnica.com Page 2 of 6 Trading at 11.4x FY20E PE with 3% EPS CAGR in FY18-21E; Maintain Neutral on near term overhang persists With sales expected to grow 14.7% CAGR in FY18-21E, we expect EPS would only grow at 3.6% CAGR in FY18-21E, due to increased contribution from low margin assembly service, and metal casing remains weak upon the arrival of 5G. Neverthelss, we identify increasing glass cover adoption, which brings GM improvement, while the ramp up of IoT and auto intelligent segment would drive medium term sales and earnings growth. BYDE is diversifying away from smartphones related business, we believe this would be BYDE’s re-rating story in the long run. BYDE is trading at FY20E 11.4x PE (5% discount to HK, China and Taiwan listed peers’ average). Sino-US trade tensions continue to impose an overhang on near term stock price, we maintain BYDE’s rating at Neutral with new TP at HK$10.15, based on 10.3x FY20E PE (15% discount to HK, China and Taiwan listed peers’ average). Exhibit 2: Glass cover smartphones are expected to account for >40% of total shipment in FY19E 70% 60% 60% 50% 41% 40% 30% 26% 20% 13% 10% 7% 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Glass cover (% of smartphone shipment) Source: Counterpoint Research, CIRL Page 3 of 6 Exhibit 3: BYDE’s revenue (top) and GP mix (bottom, increasing glass cover and new business contribution would improve blended GM) 100% 90% 80% 42.6% 47.1% 47.7% 45.2% 70% Assembly service income 60% Intelligent product & Automotive intelligent system 50% 7.9% 13.6% 15.6% 18.7% 40% Metal casing 30% 12.6% 33.8% 31.9% 18.3% Glass cover 20% 16.3% 11.3% Plastics casing 10% 0.7% 3.8% 10.6% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 0% 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 100% 90% 80% Assembly service income 70% Intelligent product & Automotive 60% intelligent system 50% Metal casing 40% Glass cover 30% 20% Plastics casing 10% 0% 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Source: Company data, CIRL estimates Page 4 of 6 Exhibit 4: Financial statement Income statement Cash flow Year to Dec (RMB mn) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Year to Dec (RMB mn) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue 38,775 41,047 49,790 55,085 62,033 Pre-tax profit 2,992 2,536 1,686 2,313 2,836 Gross profit (reported) 4,264 4,172 3,593 4,487 5,385 Taxes paid (247) (433) (30) (231) (317) EBITDA 4,623 4,496 3,700 4,529 5,003 Depreciation 1,587 1,918 1,985 2,180 2,129 Depreciation (1,587) (1,918) (1,985) (2,180) (2,129) Associates 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 3,036 2,579 1,716 2,349 2,874 CFO bef. WC change 4,332 4,020 3,641 4,262 4,648 Net interest income (exp.) (44) (43) (29) (36) (38) Change in working cap (1,894) 588 1,245 (14) (35) Associates 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow from operation 2,437 4,608 4,886 4,249 4,614 Exceptionals/others 0 0 0 0 0 CAPEX (2,621) (2,120) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) Profit before tax 2,992 2,536 1,686 2,313 2,836 Free cash flow (184) 2,488 2,886 2,249 2,614 Tax expenses (407) (347) (231) (317) (388) Dividends 518 439 292 401 491 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 Balance sheet adj.
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