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BYD Electronic International Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 February 2016 ▲ Overweight Previous: Neutral BYD Electronic International 0285.HK, 285 HK Resuming fast growth on strong orders and margin Price: HK$4.18 ▲ Price Target: HK$6.00 upticks; Upgrade to OW Previous: HK$4.30 We upgrade BYD-E to an OW rating with a new Dec-16 PT of HK$6.0 (9x China 2016 EPS, one notch higher). The debut of multiple flagship models at MWC Asian Technology 2016 adds to our conviction of metal casing adoption and we see volume upside AC Michael Fan from both Samsung and Chinese brands. We have raised our 2016 earnings (852) 2800-8541 forecasts by ~25% on stronger metal casing orders and margin upticks. We [email protected] expect the stock to further outperform in the next six to 12 months, driven by Bloomberg JPMA FAN <GO> near-term catalysts such as model launches at key customers, upward revisions J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited to Street estimates and strong 1H16 earnings (JPMe 60%+ YoY), along with Gokul Hariharan AC long-term re-rating opportunities in auto electronics. (852) 2800-8564 Stronger metal casing orders with more balanced customer mix: Our [email protected] research shows that BYD-E is seeing: 1) stable metal casing allocation from Bloomberg JPMA HARIHARAN <GO> Samsung S7 and volume upside from A-Series, 2) increased share allocation J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited from existing customers (such as Huawei), and 3) customer wins among JJ Park both foreign and domestic brands. We believe BYD-E could penetrate (82-2) 758-5717 [email protected] almost half of the flagship models launched by major Android brands and J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, we expect metal casing revenue to reach ~Rmb9.5bn in 2016E, backed by Seoul Branch an ~80% volume increase. Price Performance Margin upticks backed by increased UTR/automation: BYD-E’s metal 14 casing utilization has improved meaningfully since end-2015 and the CNC 10 fleet is likely to maintain a high UTR going forward. With a new CEO on HK$ board in mid-15, the three factories in Shenzhen are working smoothly for 6 key customers, with increased automation kicking in. We acknowledge 2 oversupply risks with non-Apple metal casing, but believe BYD-E should Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 be less impacted with sufficient orders from high-end smartphones, which 0285.HK share price (HK$) HSI (rebased) require more CNC processing. We expect margins on metal casing to YTD 1m 3m 12m improve by 2%/1% sequentially in 2016/17 (post D&A haircut). Abs 0.5% 25.1% -12.7% -49.8% Rel 12.1% 22.4% 1.2% -27.6% Auto electronics are another structural opportunity: BYD-E has started supplying auto electronics products, including multimedia systems and V2V communication modules, to global auto OEMs and Tier-1 vendors. With technology know-how from the parent company and strong R&D capability (~7,000 electronic engineers), BYD-E’s auto electronics should benefit from the structural trend of auto electrification (driven by xEV adoption N-T) and telematics (driven by automated driving L-T). We expect this business to record a 30%+ revenue CAGR over the next three to five years. Bloomberg 285 HK, Reuters 0285.HK (Year-end Dec, Rmb mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Price Target 6.00 Sales 16,062 19,832 20,004 25,484 28,146 P/E (x) 12.2 8.8 9.2 6.3 5.5 Price Target End Date 31-Dec-16 Gross Profit 1,679 2,105 1,844 2,632 2,976 P/BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 Market Cap HK9,418MM Operating Profit 825 1,063 876 1,388 1,607 Div. Yield (%) 0.8 0.0 1.1 1.6 1.8 Market Cap US$1,211MM EBITDA 1,456 1,966 2,143 2,872 3,241 ROE (%) 7.6 9.7 8.6 11.5 11.9 Share Out. (Com) 2,253MM Pre-Tax Profit 752 1,012 973 1,418 1,625 ROIC (%) 6.1 9.1 7.0 - Free float 34.2% Net profit 648 902 863 1,266 1,450 WC Turns (x) 4.4 5.3 5.3 5.6 4.6 Avg daily val (US$) 2.7MM EPS (Rmb) 0.29 0.40 0.38 0.56 0.64 Net Debt/Equity (26.9%) (18.0%) (18.6%) (12.5%) (15.6%) Avg daily vol. 5.4MM BPS (Rmb) 3.92 4.29 4.63 5.14 5.72 Dividend yield (%) 1.1 Company data, Bloomberg, J. P. Morgan estimates. Note: In Net Debt/Equity, NM means company has net cash See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected]. {[{QZ]*Owksv*O*|o}J l}}nsm8myw*<B9:<9<:;@}]} Michael Fan Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800-8541 28 February 2016 [email protected] Key catalyst for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: • Project wins on metal casing • Higher adoption rate for metal casing • Continued margin pressure • Margin improvement on better • Strong demand for customers' gadgets • Any meaningful share loss from big clients yields and UTR • Better progress in auto electronics • Strong earnings growth in 1Q/1H16 Key financial metrics FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (LC) 19,832.1 20,004.0 25,483.6 28,146.4 Our Dec-16 PT of HK$6.0 is based on 9x 2016 EPS, one notch higher Revenue growth (%) 23.5% 0.9% 27.4% 10.4% to reflect the opportunities from auto electronics. Our valuation EBITDA (LC) 1,966.3 2,143.5 2,872.1 3,240.8 multiple is 0.5 SD lower than the historical mean valuation given the EBITDA margin (%) 9.9% 10.7% 11.3% 11.5% late cycle of smartphones Tax rate (%) 10.9% 11.3% 10.8% 10.8% Net profit (LC) 901.7 863.1 1,265.6 1,449.8 EPS (LC) 0.40 0.38 0.56 0.64 EPS growth (%) 39.1% -4.3% 46.6% 14.6% 12-month Forward P/E ±2 Standard Deviations DPS (LC) 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.06 BVPS (LC) 4.29 4.63 5.14 5.72 25 Operating cash flow (LC) 1,296.1 2,154.1 823.7 1,915.0 20 Free cash flow (LC) -664.0 -217.6 -376.3 715.0 Interest cover (X) NM NM NM NM 15 Net margin (%) 4.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 10 Sales/assets (X) 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 5 Debt/equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net debt/equity (%) Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash - ROE (%) 9.7% 8.6% 11.5% 11.9% Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Key model assumptions FY14E FY15E FY16E FY16E P/E Mean +2 St Dev +1 St Dev -1 St Dev -2 St Dev Metal Casing ($, Rmb mn) 3,542 6,408 9,426 10,730 Metal Casing (units, M) 20 36 64 78 Metal Casing (GPM in %) 27.3 17.8 19.8 20.2 Source: Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Sensitivity analysis Op Profit EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates Sensitivity to FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E EPS FY15E FY16E 1% chg in revenues 23.4% 14.4% 25.3% 16.6% JPMe old 0.39 0.45 1% chg in COGS -20.1% -18.4% -21.8% -20.4% JPMe new 0.38 0.58 % chg -0.2% 28.4% Consensus 0.39 0.47 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Comparative metrics Code JPM Price(LC) Mkt Cap PE(x) PB(x) ROE (%) YTD Rating Feb-26 (US$ Mn) 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E Perf. (%) BYD-E 285 HK N 4.18 1,211 8.7 6.0 0.7 0.7 8.6 11.5 0.5 EMS/ODM Ju Teng 3336 HK OW 3.09 445 4.5 3.9 0.5 0.5 11.6 12.3 -16.3 Casetek 5264 TT NC 181.00 1,846 12.0 10.0 2.0 1.8 18.3 18.3 34.6 FIH 2038 HK NC 2.78 2,823 11.2 10.2 0.7 0.6 6.2 6.3 -6.1 Jabil JBL US NC 20.84 3,971 10.4 8.1 1.7 1.5 15.5 17.8 -10.5 Everwin 300115 CH NC 24.89 2,116 27.4 18.6 4.5 3.7 17.9 21.1 -25.9 Tongda 698 HK NC 1.34 987 10.7 8.3 1.8 1.6 18.6 20.8 -2.2 Components AAC 2018 HK UW 53.55 8,458 17.9 15.5 5.0 4.0 30.5 28.4 5.9 Catcher 2474 TT OW 260.00 6,013 8.1 7.3 1.7 1.5 23.2 21.7 -5.8 Largan 3008 TT UW 2,535.00 10,208 13.8 13.6 5.3 4.3 44.8 34.8 11.7 Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P.
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