DEFENCE AN DEFENCE HappyIndependenceDay AND D DIPLOMACY DIPLOMACY IN PURSUIT OF NATIONAL SECURITY VOL. 7 NO. 4 ISSN 2347 - 3703 july-september 2018 special Issue: China • Is Xi jinping really as powerful as his Image suggests? Jayadeva Ranade • China’s new Diplomacy under Xi jinping Madhu Bhalla and Sanjeev Kumar Vol. 7 no. 4 • july-september 2018 4 • july-september 7 no. Vol. • Has the Chinese Assistance made pakistan secure? Shalini Chawla • CmC and propaganda under Xi jinping: Invoking military nationalism to Address the Crisis of morale Bhavna Singh • Is China’s Air Force really too tall for the Indian Air Force? Ravinder Singh Chhatwal • China’s ‘Grey Zone’ operations: How ‘maritime militia’ and ‘little blue men’ are Changing the maritime War landscape Pooja Bhatt • China’s nepal policy in the 21st Century: tibet, security, and Connectivity Rishi Gupta • China’s Interest in the Horn of Africa: Implications for India Sarvsureshth Dhammi • Doklam episode and Aftermath: India-China bilateral relations Raj Mongia • sri lanka-China relations in recent years: possible Implications Samatha Mallempati OVER 60 YEARS. 6 AIRCRAFT TYPES. 1 NATION www.rafale.co.in Book Review TOOFANI MYSTERE IV ALIZE JAGUAR MIRAGE 2000 RAFALE JOURNAL OF THE CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY IN PURSUIT OF NATIONAL SECURITY VOL. 7 NO. 4 l JULY-SEPTEMBER 2018 Special Issue: China CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES VISION To be an independent centre of excellence on national security contributing informed and considered research and analyses on relevant issues. MISSION To encourage independent and informed research and analyses on issues of relevance to national security and to create a pool of domain experts to provide considered inputs to decision-makers. Also, to foster informed public debate and opinion on relevant issues and to engage with other think-tanks and stakeholders within India and abroad to provide an Indian perspective. CONTENTS Editor’s Note V 1. Is Xi Jinping Really as Powerful as his Image Suggests? 1 Jayadeva Ranade 2. China’s New Diplomacy under Xi Jinping 9 Madhu Bhalla and Sanjeev Kumar 3. Has the Chinese Assistance Made Pakistan Secure? 19 Shalini Chawla 4. CMC and Propaganda under Xi Jinping: Invoking Military Nationalism to Address the Crisis of Morale 31 Bhavna Singh 5. Is China’s Air Force Really Too Tall for the Indian Air Force? 45 Ravinder Singh Chhatwal 6. China’s ‘Grey Zone’ Operations: How ‘Maritime Militia’ and ‘Little Blue Men’ are Changing the Maritime War Landscape 59 Pooja Bhatt 7. China’s Nepal Policy in the 21st Century: Tibet, Security, and Connectivity 73 Rishi Gupta III Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 7 No. 4 2018 (July-September) CONTENTS 8. China’s Interest in the Horn of Africa: Implications for India 85 Sarvsureshth Dhammi 9. Doklam Episode and Aftermath: India-China Bilateral Relations 97 Raj Mongia 10. Sri Lanka-China Relations in Recent Years: Possible Implications 107 Samatha Mallempati Book Reviews India in Nuclear Asia: Evolution of Regional Forces, Perceptions and Policies 117 Manpreet Sethi Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 7 No. 4 2018 (July-September) IV Editor’S NOTE This issue of the Defence and Diplomacy journal is in continuation with our series of theme-based issues. The theme for this Special Issue is ‘China’ which should not come as any surprise considering the many recent happenings in our neighbourhood that have the unmistakable stamp of China written all across. From the South China Sea to the Horn of Africa, China has been making concerted attempts to ‘colonise’ the region on the strength of its economic might, reminiscent of the colonial era of the past few centuries. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Maritime Silk Road announced by President Xi Jinping are being likened to the Marshall Plan of the 20th century – something that the Chinese strongly deny. According to a Washington-based Think Tank, the eight trillion USD outlay for infrastructure development under this initiative is likely to entrap the smaller nations into a debt trap from which they would find it very difficult to recover. On the domestic front, Xi Jinping is determined to rein in those who do not respect the law. In his crackdown on corruption, he has not spared even senior officers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The arrest of a famous Chinese film star – Fan Bingbing – on charges of tax evasion is meant to showcase the seriousness of the Chinese government to carry out the presidential decree against corruption. Xi’s ascent to power after assuming the presidency in 2012 has eclipsed the persona of the heretofore two most venerated Chinese leaders – Chairman Mao and Deng Xiaoping. While Xi’s drive against corruption – including that against the PLA leadership – has been welcomed by the people, it has also led to apprehension of a potential return to autocratic, one-man rule. To all external appearances, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains unfazed in the face of criticism over the abolition of the term limits for the president/vice president. Posters in Shanxi University suggest that the students don’t accept Xi as their leader. This, along with widespread unrest and demonstrations, puts the onus squarely V Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 7 No. 4 2018 (July-September) Editor’S NOTE on Xi Jinping to prove that he is indeed a worthy leader – one who is capable of delivering on the promise of the China Dream. Jayadeva Ranade sets the stage with the first article that examines the real turmoil in the Chinese interior following the abolition of the term limits for the president/vice president. The “third era” of the fifth generation of Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping is predicted to change the lives of millions of Chinese, albeit with greater confidence that the future of China and the fate of the world are now inseparable. Amongst all this rhetoric, the realisation of the Chinese Dream is still predicated on the leadership’s ability to resolve the ongoing trade wars with the US to China’s advantage and also overcome the rising domestic unrest. Only then, will China be able to chart the course towards realising its two centennial goals slated for 2020 and 2049. The pronouncements of Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Qingdao on June 10, 2018, to “….accommodate each other’s core interests and major concerns” are, however, not borne out by deeds, viz. the military build-up in the South China Sea. That this activity has created a ‘scare’ among the weak neighbours in the region would be stating the obvious. This Chinese ‘doublespeak’ exemplifies the adage “speaking with a forked tongue” comprehensively. Also, China’s ‘new diplomacy’ views the dominant state in South Asia with suspicion, largely on account of the internal conflicts prevalent in its own domestic periphery (Xinjiang and Tibet). This, then, is the compelling force – besides the BRI agenda – for Xi to strengthen China’s relations with countries in India’s neighbourhood, viz. Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The ‘debt trap’ that has ensnared Sri Lanka has, however, put the other nations on alert against the dangers of the ‘Chinese embrace’. This is further elaborated in the second article by Sanjeev Kumar and Madhu Bhalla. In the next article, Shalini Chawla traces the beginnings of the Sino-Pak alliance – something that has continued to grow over the years since 1951 when Pakistan recognised the People’s Republic of China; Pakistan was amongst the first (India was the first) non- Communist countries to recognise China. The most significant aspect of this alliance – meant to checkmate India – was the assistance provided by China to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme. Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 7 No. 4 2018 (July-September) VI Editor’S NOTE Military assistance to Pakistan – particularly following the US sanctions post the 1965 War with India – nudged Pakistan into an even tighter embrace with the Chinese when Pakistan attempted to diversify its sources of military arms imports. Although China continues to support Pakistan’s military development today as the biggest supplier of arms, it has maintained that the resolution of the Kashmir issue be done bilaterally by India and Pakistan. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is China’s flagship project of its Belt and Road Initiative and China has invested heavily in ensuring that it succeeds. Is Pakistan developing cold feet towards meeting its end of the bargain – in view of the likely dangers of falling into a debt trap (a la Sri Lanka)? This will only emerge in the years ahead. With Pakistan being placed on the grey list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the new leadership in Pakistan has its work cut out to rein in the terrorist organisations and stop terror funding if it wants to avoid being placed on the black list by the FATF. After restructuring the military apparatus in 2016 – with the creation of five Theatre Commands in place of the seven Military Regions – Xi’s emphasis on innovation and technological development appears to be at the core of ‘enriching the state and strengthening its military power’. China’s annual spend on the military has been approximately USD 150 billion in the last few years, with the official budget for 2018 standing at USD 175 billion (an 8 percent increase over the previous year). The PLA Academy of Military Sciences has been identified by Xi Jinping as the leading institution for scientific research in the military; with the National Defence University and the National Defence Technical University also being placed directly under the Central Military Commission (CMC). Greater emphasis has been placed on civil-military integration – its effectiveness, however, will only emerge in the coming years as observed by Bhavna Singh in her article “CMC and Propaganda under Xi Jinping: Invoking Military Nationalism to Address the Crisis of Morale”.