Us-China Negotiations and Interactions on Nonproliferation, 1980-2001
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INTEGRATING A RISING POWER INTO GLOBAL NONPROLIFERATION REGIMES: US-CHINA NEGOTIATIONS AND INTERACTIONS ON NONPROLIFERATION, 1980-2001 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF LONDON IN FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSPHY Evan Sabino Medeiros June 2002 UMI Number: U194849 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U194849 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ' m Library British Utyary or Political and Economic Science ' ooq> 3^2 Dissertation Abstract Chinese policies and behaviour regarding the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have changed gradually over the last two decades. Since the early 1980s, China has limited its exports of sensitive nuclear and missile items and expanded its nonproliferation commitments. Although China continues to provide some missile assistance to Pakistan, Iran and other countries, from a nonproliferation perspective China’s policies - on balance - have improved. The dissertation argues that US policy, in the form of economic and political incentives and disincentives, played a significant and enduring role in shaping these changes. US diplomacy sensitized China to international and US nonproliferation concerns; encouraged China to accept nonproliferation principles and join international accords; coerced China into strict compliance with some of its commitments; catalyzed institutionalization of such pledges; and helped foster the development of a Chinese community of arms control and nonproliferation specialists. These changes in China’s nonproliferation behaviour were also influenced by three internal factors: the degree of China’s acceptance of specific nonproliferation norms; China’s institutional/bureaucratic capacity to understand and implement its nonproliferation commitments; and Chinese foreign policy priorities. These three variables enabled and constrained US efforts to shape China’s nonproliferation policies. US policy was most successful in encouraging changes in China’s approach to nuclear nonproliferation but were far more limited in shaping its missile nonproliferation behaviour. The dissertation further maintains that persistent and high-level US diplomacy resulted in the widely held Chinese perception that some of its nonproliferation pledges are political commitments and that adherence to them is linked to the overall US-China political relationship. As a result, US policies which China perceives as undermining its core security interests, such as missile defence, have pushed China away from supporting nonproliferation and arms control principles and agreements. This dissertation presents four case-studies. The first one covers US-China negotiations on nuclear nonproliferation, the second covers bilateral interactions on missile nonproliferation, the third addresses bilateral debates on missile defences, and the fourth case study examines the evolution of China’s community of nonproliferation and arms control specialists. 3 Integrating a Rising Power into Global Nonproliferation Regimes: US-China Negotiations and Interactions on Nonproliferation, 1980-2001 Table of Contents Abstract Acknowledgments Chapter One: Introduction: A Framework for Analyzing the Changes in Chinese Nonproliferation Policies Chapter Two: A Gradual Convergence: The US, China and Nuclear Nonproliferation 47 Chapter Three: Constant Bickering: US-China Negotiations on Missile Nonproliferation and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) 144 Chapter Four: Negative Feedback: Assessing the Impact of Missile Defence on Chinese Nonproliferation Policies 243 Chapter Five: A Cultural Evolution: The Development of China’s Arms Control and Nonproliferation Community 293 Chapter Six: Conclusion 345 Bibliography 361 Tables Table 1.1 The Types of US Policy Influence on Chinese Nonproliferation Policies and Behaviour 46 Table 2.1 Overall Assessment of US-China Nuclear Nonproliferation Debates, 1981-2001 50 Table 2.2 US-China Nuclear Nonproliferation Negotiations, 1981-1985 59 Table 2.3 US-China Nuclear Nonproliferation Compliance Debates, 1990-1996 85 4 Table 2.4 US-China Nuclear Nonproliferation Negotiations, 1996-2001 122 Table 3.1 Overall Assessment of US-China Missile Nonproliferation Negotiations, 1987-2001 148 Table 3.2 US-China Missile Nonproliferation Negotiations, 1987-1991 150 Table 3.3 US-China Missile Nonproliferation Compliance Debates, 1992-2001 196 Figures Figure 1.1 Explaining the Changes in Chinese Nonproliferation Policies and Behaviour, 1980-2001 45 Figure 2.1 Key Events in US-China NCA Negotiations, 1981-1985 71 Figure 3.1 China’s Original Interpretation of the MTCR 171 Figure 3.2 Recurring Patterns in US-China Interactions on Missile Proliferation 214 Figure 5.1 Chinese and Foreign Participation in China-ISODARCO Conferences, 1988-2000 313 5 Acknowledgments This dissertation benefited enormously from the intellectual, emotional and financial support of numerous teachers, colleagues, friends and family members. This dissertation is dedicated to my parents, Antone and Beverly, whose love and nurturing have consistently encouraged me to be not only a better scholar but also a better person. My advisor, Michael Yahuda, deserves much gratitude for providing me with the freedom to pursue my research interests with a vengeance and enough guidance not to get lost in the long process of forging a dissertation. From the very beginning, he patiently prodded me to question all my assumptions in order to produce a more balanced study. Numerous colleagues were instrumental in mentoring me through this process. Bates Gill showed faith in my aspirations to be a China watcher when none was warranted. He encouraged me to develop my dual interests in China and international security issues. Bates provided me with numerous opportunities to attend conferences, to travel to China and to publish research papers. These opportunities shaped the foundation of this dissertation. Monte Bullard consistently shared his invaluable and timeless insights as a long-time China watcher. He read and commented on virtually every page of the dissertation. He pushed me to spend time in China and helped me to get there. Both Bates and Monte have been true friends in supporting me through the most challenging stages of this process. At the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, William Potter and Amy Sands gave me a job, provided me with the support to move to China for ten months in 2000 and pushed me to write quicker. I could not have asked for better opportunities and advice. My immediate 6 colleagues on the East Asia Program, Phillip Saunders and Yuan Jing-dong, helped to direct my research efforts, read numerous drafts and encouraged me to think more analytically about the dissertation. Michael Bareletta, Tim McCarthy, Guarav Kampani and several other CNS colleagues were great friends through the entire process. I am grateful to all of them. I would also like to thank numerous colleagues in the fields of China studies and nonproliferation studies who provided invaluable insights, information and assistance. They include: Peter Almquist, Michael Armacost, Adam Brookes, Tom Christianson, John Corbett, Richard Cupitt, Karl Eikenberry, Robert Einhom, David Finkelstein, Mike Forsythe, John Frankenstein, Taylor Fravel, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Bonnie Glaser, Paul Godwin, Chris Hegadom, Eric Heginbotham, Wen Hsu, Jo Husbands, Ann Kambara, Harlan Jencks, Iain Johnston, Susan Lawrence, Alex Lennon, John W. Lewis, James Lilly, Melinda Liu, Michael May, Michael McDevitt, Jim Moriarty, James Mulvenon, Doug Paal, Wolfgang Panofsky, John Parachini, Jonathan Pollack, Kevin Pollpeter, Susan Puska, Brad Roberts, J. Stapleton Roy, Gary Samore, Larry Scheinman, Andrew Scobell, David Sedney, David Shambaugh, Leonard Spector, Robert Suettinger, Michael Swaine, John Tullius, Jon Wolfsthal, David Wright and Xue Litai. In China, I am greatly indebted to the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. They gave me an office and hosted me for ten months in 2000. Gu Guoliang and Fan Jishe, of IAS’s Centre for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Research, helped to set up numerous meetings with Chinese specialists. I would have been lost without their guidance. I am grateful to Niu Jun, Tao Wenzhao, Wang Jisi, Yuan Zheng, Zhou Qi and many others at the IAS for their friendship and hospitality. They provided me with one of the most exciting and 7 challenging periods of my life. There are literally dozens other Chinese scholars and officials from the Foreign Ministry, the military, the defence industry establishment, government research institutes and Chinese universities who shared insights and information with me. Special thanks go out to all of them. Discretion precludes me from naming them. I am especially grateful for having such a wonderful group of friends and