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OSW Commentary Centre for Eastern Studies NUMBER 306 | 24.07.2019 www.osw.waw.pl To serve the people – total power in Zelensky’s hands Tadeusz Iwański The key slogans of the campaign of Volodymyr Zelensky and his party Servant of the People ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections were: to bring fresh blood into the po- litical class and to introduce honest professionals to politics who have not been discredited. The new president had no political experience whatsoever and, as a result of the parliamenta- ry election, over three quarters of the seats in the Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) will be taken by individuals who have never served as members of parliament. The new parlia- ment will have the lowest average age of its deputies since 1991 and the largest proportion of women (around 20%). The largest number of new and young politicians has been introduced to the Verkhovna Rada by the Servant of the People party and the Voice party. The sweeping victory attained by Zelensky’s party will allow it to form a government by itself. The president has announced that a new prime minister will be an economist “without polit- ical experience”, and it can be assumed that this principle will also apply during the selection of most of the new ministers. Thus Ukraine, being at war with Russia and struggling with low economic growth, will be governed by individuals who are new to politics. This situation, be- ing an effect of the high hopes and expectations of the Ukrainian public for a fundamental change of the system, is giving rise to the significant potential for positive changes but also might put the political stability and further development of the Ukrainian state at risk. The sources of success of the Servant by Russia and the Donbass was the scene of in- of the People tensive military operations with the participa- tion of regular Russian army troops, Ukrainians The success of Zelensky and the Servant of the elected politicians who were widely associated People is above all an effect of the promise to with experience, stability and the ability to cope remove old politicians and thoroughly reor- with external aggression. This led to victory for ganise the state through the engagement of the pro-Western oligarch Petro Poroshenko in non-discredited professionals. This coincided the presidential race and the parliamentary suc- with the radical rejection by the voters of the cess of the People’s Front, a party which had team which governed Ukraine during the past been hastily formed by economists, volunteers, five years and with the lack of improvement in military officers but also by numerous profes- the politico-economic situation. The political sional politicians who treated their parliamen- establishment has been disliked in Ukraine for tary seats as a guarantee of success in business. many years, which was strongly emphasised In 2019, the Ukrainian public grew accustomed during the Revolution of Dignity. However, five to the war in Donbass, especially since it is years ago, when the Ukrainian economy was low in intensity and the peace talks have been plunged in a deep crisis, Crimea was annexed deadlocked. In turn, the economic situation has OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 306 1 stabilised to such an extent that Ukrainians declared they trust Zelensky) who promised to are thinking not so much about survival but bring new faces into politics, rather than once also about development. The growing aspira- again cast their votes for representatives of the tions and the diminishing sense of threat have disgraced establishment. made the public more sensitive to corruption and many other pathologies in which the post- New is coming Maidan government was involved. The Ukrain- ian public started to believe that the only The parliamentary election was unprecedent- chance for improving their life and modernising ed in several aspects. Never before did a vic- the state will be to give power to people from torious party garner such a high level of public outside the system who share the fears and support (around 43%) and gain such a large representation in parliament (254 MPs). What decided about the scale of Zelensky’s victory The fact that the party is strongly identi- was the surprisingly good result achieved in sin- fied with the president means responsibil- gle-member constituencies (130 seats), regard- ity for the political processes in the coun- less of the fact that according to the estimates try will predominantly be put on Zelensky. ahead of the election, representatives of Serv- ant of the People were predicted to win around 80 of them. None of the deputies from this hopes of most of the Ukrainian public, and not party has ever been a member of parliament; to corrupt politicians who have no idea about this is an effect of the criterion adopted while everyday reality, who have connections with preparing the election lists and selecting candi- oligarchs and failed to implement the prom- dates in single-member constituencies. At the ised reforms. Zelensky and the people linked to same time, this condition, which was also ap- him understood this well and responded to this plied in the party lists of the Voice, practically demand which led to electoral defeat for the eliminated the chances of victory for most of previous government. While in 2014 the Peo- the representatives of the inter-party faction ple’s Front garnered 22% of the votes, the Petro of Euro-optimists consisting of 25 members Poroshenko Bloc 21% and Self Reliance 11%, in who made efforts to push through reforms in July 2019, the People’s Front received 0% and the previous parliament. was not even taken into account in the last Zelensky’s popularity, being the main source polls. The Petro Poroshenko Bloc rebranded it- of the success of his party, meant that many self as “European Solidarity” and received 8.5% seasoned MPs lost the struggle for a seat in And Self Reliance received 0.6%. Therefore, it the new Verkhovna Rada. Another aspect of seems reasonable to go along with the thesis this victory is also the fact that some oligarchs’ that by ridding themselves of the old politi- influence in parliament has weakened. This in cians, in 2019 Ukrainians implemented another particular concerns Rinat Akhmetov. Howev- stage of the Revolution of Dignity or launched er, it is still unclear how strong an impact an- another revolution, this time an electoral one1. other oligarch, Ihor Kolomoyskyi who strongly They preferred to take the risk of entrusting backed Zelensky during the presidential race, power to anyone trustworthy (according to will have on Ukraine’s political life. It is estimat- a survey conducted in July, 60% of voters have ed that he may control dozens of deputies, but it is only future nominations in the government 1 This phrase was first used by the Ukrainian sociologist and state-controlled companies that will show Yevhen Holovakha in an interview for the Ukrayinska the real scope of his influence. A conflict be- Pravda portal on 18 April 2019, https://www.pravda. com.ua/articles/2019/04/18/7212520/. tween Kolomoyskyi and Zelensky seems to be OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 306 2 just a matter of time, considering the oligarch’s manifestos. Although it is possible to imagine ambitions. It is still an open question what the them agreeing on stances on some issues (in- scale and the character of the conflict will be. cluding with the government), a comprehen- Zelensky’s huge success during the presidential sive and coordinated co-operation is ruled out. election and the subsequent sweeping victory Even though most of the opposition parties of the Servant of the People in the parliamenta- have significant financial and media resources ry election prove that the party is strongly iden- at their disposal (such as the European Solidar- tified with the president. In practice this means ity, the Opposition Platform – For Life and Bat- that, as viewed by the public, Zelensky will be kivshchyna), they will not be able to outweigh the main person responsible for the political the potential of the Servant of the People which processes in the country. However, the scope has state instruments at its disposal. A situa- of his control over the party is currently unclear. tion like this may tempt the most senior state authorities to abuse power and instrumentalise Hopes, risks and question marks the law, which may even lead to a regression of democracy. The sweeping victory and the total power at- tained by Zelensky gives rise to both hopes and risks. The main hope can be pinned on The total power held by Zelensky, given the effectiveness of the decision-making pro- the weakness of the state institutions and cess. If the president’s party has a parliamen- the fragmentation of the opposition, may tary majority and forms a government by itself, prove to be a temptation to those in power the traditional disputes within the triangle be- and lead to a regression of democracy. tween the legislative and executive powers and the presidential administration will be less in- tense. However, it also seems that the president However, the biggest question is how the Serv- intends to carry out real changes in Ukraine. ant of the People grouping will function in Therefore, to fulfil the expectations pinned on parliament. The party was established shortly him, shortly after the inauguration of the new ahead of the election and presented people parliament, he will put forward a number of from various circles as its candidates, with dif- pro-modernisation legislative initiatives which ferent experience and competences. It is only will be passed smoothly.
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