THRESHOLDS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING EVALUATION OF STREAMFLOW AND ENSEMBLE THRESHOLDS Werner H.A. Weeink Enschede, June 2010 MSc thesis committee: Dr. M.S. Krol Dr.Ir. M.J. Booij Dr. M.H. Ramos 1 THRESHOLDS FOR FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING EVALUATION OF STREAMFLOW AND ENSEMBLE THRESHOLDS Werner H.A. Weeink Enschede, June 2010 MSc thesis committee: Dr. M.S. Krol Dr.Ir. M.J. Booij Dr. M.H. Ramos Version : MT_20100608_6.2 Status : Final Cover photo : River Doubs at the village of Chalèze, France (10.03.2006) © Nicolas Abraham, 2006 2 COLOPHON Author Werner H.A. Weeink Student Civil Engineering and Management |
[email protected] Streuweg 4 7663TC Mander The Netherlands Members MSc Thesis committee: Dr. M.S. Krol 1 Associate Professor |
[email protected] Dr.Ir. M.J. Booij 1 Assistant Professor |
[email protected] Dr. M.H. Ramos 2 Researcher |
[email protected] 1 University of Twente Faculty of Engineering Technology Department of Water Engineering and Management P.O. Box 217 7500AE Enschede The Netherlands 2 Cemagref Antony Unité de Recherche: Hydrosystèmes et Bioprocédés (HBAN) Parc de Tourvoie, BP44 92163 Antony CEDEX France Institutions : University of Twente Cemagref Project : MSc thesis Extent document : 89 pages Author : Werner H.A. Weeink Date : 8 June 2010 3 ABSTRACT The use of ensemble weather predictions in flood forecasting is an acknowledged procedure to include the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts in streamflow predictions. Flood forecasters can thus get an overview of the probability of exceeding a critical discharge, and decide on whether a flood warning should be issued or not.