The Liouville Equation in Atmospheric Predictability Martin Ehrendorfer Institut fur¨ Meteorologie und Geophysik, Universitat¨ Innsbruck Innrain 52, A–6020 Innsbruck, Austria
[email protected] 1 Introduction and Motivation It is widely recognized that weather forecasts made with dynamical models of the atmosphere are in- herently uncertain. Such uncertainty of forecasts produced with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models arises primarily from two sources: namely, from imperfect knowledge of the initial model condi- tions and from imperfections in the model formulation itself. The recognition of the potential importance of accurate initial model conditions and an accurate model formulation dates back to times even prior to operational NWP (Bjerknes 1904; Thompson 1957). In the context of NWP, the importance of these error sources in degrading the quality of forecasts was demonstrated to arise because errors introduced in atmospheric models, are, in general, growing (Lorenz 1982; Lorenz 1963; Lorenz 1993), which at the same time implies that the predictability of the atmosphere is subject to limitations (see, Errico et al. 2002). An example of the amplification of small errors in the initial conditions, or, equivalently, the di- vergence of initially nearby trajectories is given in Fig. 1, for the system discussed by Lorenz (1984). The uncertainty introduced into forecasts through uncertain initial model conditions, and uncertainties in model formulations, has been the subject of numerous studies carried out in parallel to the continuous development of NWP models (e.g., Leith 1974; Epstein 1969; Palmer 2000). In addition to studying the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere (e.g., Lorenz 1969a; Lorenz 1969b; Thompson 1985a; Thompson 1985b), efforts have been directed at the quantification or predic- tion of forecast uncertainty that arises due to the sources of uncertainty mentioned above (see the review papers by Ehrendorfer 1997 and Palmer 2000, and Ehrendorfer 1999).