Desperately Seeking Representation: An Investigation into Visible Minority Electability under Vancouver’s At-large Electoral System by Matthew G. Smith A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master’s of Arts in Human Geography Graduate Department of Geography University of Toronto © 2011 Desperately Seeking Representation: An Investigation into Visible Minority Electability under Vancouver’s At-large Electoral System Matthew G. Smith Master’s of Arts Degree in Human Geography Department of Geography University of Toronto 2011 Abstract The results of Vancouver’s 2008 municipal election led to critiques that South Asian candidates, and possibly all visible minority candidates, face reduced electability under Vancouver’s at-large electoral system than they would under a different municipal electoral system. This thesis employs numerous quantitative research methods to assess whether visible minority candidates do face reduced electability under the at-large system compared to a ward system proposed for Vancouver in 2004. The extent that Vancouver’s 2008 election results fulfil three U.S. Supreme Court conditions for establishing minority vote dilution is also assessed as part of this thesis research. ii Acknowledgments Profound thanks to my wife, Heather Fussell, who supported me through my doubts and confusion and without whom the completion of this thesis would not have been possible. I am also indebted to my supervisor, Dr. Alan Walks, whose guidance and input was invaluable in helping me plan and execute my research and write this thesis. I would also like to thank my sister, Annabel Smith, who helped with editing and pep talks and my “coach”, Laurel Jebamani, whose skills and feedback assisted me in successfully applying to the University of Toronto. I am also grateful for the support my family, friends and in-laws gave me throughout my Master’s, and lastly thanks to Holden for being born a week late and thereby giving me just enough time to write my thesis draft and ultimately complete my defense and revisions. iii Tables of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................1 1.1: Multiculturalism in liberal democracies .................................................................... 1 1.2: Problematizing “visible minority” ............................................................................. 4 1.3: Vancouver’s 2008 election ......................................................................................... 7 1.4: State of research ....................................................................................................... 11 1.5: Vancouver’s history of electoral reform.................................................................... 12 1.6: Thesis research focus and questions ......................................................................... 18 1.7: Electoral geography .................................................................................................. 18 1.8: Other electoral systems ............................................................................................ 19 1.9: Positionality and critical reflexivity ......................................................................... 21 1.10: Order of operations ................................................................................................ 22 Chapter 2: Literature Review ...........................................................................24 2.1: Multiculturalism and minorities’ representation rights ............................................ 24 2.2: American studies of minority electability under at-large systems ............................ 31 2.2.1: History of municipal electoral reform in America ................................................ 31 2.2.2: Assessment of minority electability under American at-large systems .................. 35 2.3: Studies of minority electability in Vancouver ........................................................... 37 Chapter 3: Methodology ...................................................................................40 3.1: Index of representation ............................................................................................. 40 3.1.1: Justification of index of representation ................................................................. 41 3.1.2: Data and approach ................................................................................................ 42 3.2: Location quotient ...................................................................................................... 43 3.2.1: Justification of location quotient ........................................................................... 44 3.2.2: Data and approach ................................................................................................ 45 3.3: GIS analysis of visible and non-visible minority residential patterns ...................... 47 3.3.1: Justification for GIS analysis of visible and non-visible minority residential patterns ........................................................................................................................................... 47 3.3.2: Data and approach ................................................................................................ 48 3.4: Homogenous precinct analysis ................................................................................. 49 3.4.1: Justification of homogeneous precinct analysis .................................................... 49 3.4.2: Data and approach ................................................................................................ 49 Chapter 4: Research Findings .........................................................................51 4.1: Assessing representation in Vancouver .................................................................... 51 4.2: Minority electability under the at-large and ward electoral systems ....................... 54 4.2.1: Party vote in Vancouver’s 2008 election ............................................................... 54 4.2.2: Deviations from party vote trend and divergences to Mayoral candidates’ LQ scores ........................................................................................................................................... 64 4.2.2.1: Deviations from party vote ................................................................................. 64 4.2.2.2: Significantly diverging LQ scores ...................................................................... 73 iv 4.2.3: Overall findings from location quotient analysis of at-large and ward systems ... 76 4.3: Vancouver’s 2008 election results and the three conditions .................................... 77 4.3.1: The first condition .................................................................................................. 78 4.3.2: The second condition ............................................................................................. 87 4.3.3: The third condition ................................................................................................ 89 4.3.4: Overall findings of fulfilling the three conditions ................................................. 99 Chapter 5: Concluding Comments ................................................................102 Appendix ..........................................................................................................108 Works Cited .....................................................................................................128 v List of Maps and Tables Map 1.1: The 14 wards proposed by the 2004 Vancouver Electoral Reform Commission ................................................................................................................................ 17 Table 4.1 Index of representation for Vancouver ...................................................................... 51 Table 4.2: LQ scores for VV Candidates Robertson, Chow, Blyth and Clement ...................... 55 Table 4.3: Summary of party vote trend for Vision Vancouver candidates in Downtown and Westside wards .................................................................................................................... 57 Table 4.4: Summary of party vote trend for Vision Vancouver candidates in Eastside wards .......................................................................................................................................... 57 Table 4.5: Summary of party vote trend for Vision Vancouver candidates in Central wards .......................................................................................................................................... 58 Table 4.6: Summary of party vote trend in all wards for Vision Vancouver candidates ........... 59 Table 4.7: Summary of party vote trend for NPA candidates in Downtown and Westside wards) ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Table 4.8: Summary of party vote trend for NPA candidates in Eastside wards ...................... 61 Table 4.9: Summary of party vote trend for NPA candidates in Central wards ........................ 62 Table 4.10: Summary of party vote trend in all wards for NPA candidates .............................. 63 Table 4.11: Deviations by ethnicity of candidates...................................................................... 66 Map 4.1: Non-visible