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Socio-Demographic Factors and Civic Voting Behaviour: the Case of Vancouver

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Socio-Demographic Factors and Civic Voting Behaviour: the Case of Vancouver SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AND CIVIC VOTING BEHAVIOUR: THE CASE OF VANCOUVER by Michelle Vernooy Bachelor of Arts, University of British Columbia, 1990 RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF URBAN STUDIES In the Urban Studies Program of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences © Michelle Vernooy 2009 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Fall 2009 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL Name: Michelle Vernooy Degree: Master of Urban Studies Title of Thesis: Socio-Demographic Factors and Civic Voting Behaviour: The Case of Vancouver Examining Committee: Chair: Peter V. Hall Assistant Professor, Urban Studies Program Simon Fraser University Vancouver, British Columbia ___________________________________ Patrick J. Smith Senior Supervisor Director, Institute of Governance Studies Professor, Department of Political Science Simon Fraser University Vancouver, British Columbia ___________________________________ Anthony Perl Supervisor Professor and Director, Urban Studies Program Professor, Department of Political Science Simon Fraser University Vancouver, British Columbia ___________________________________ D. Munroe Eagles External Examiner Director, Canadian Studies Program Professor, Department of Political Science University of Buffalo, State University of New York Buffalo, New York Date Defended/Approved: December 2, 2009 ii Declaration of Partial Copyright Licence The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. The author has further granted permission to Simon Fraser University to keep or make a digital copy for use in its circulating collection (currently available to the public at the “Institutional Repository” link of the SFU Library website <www.lib.sfu.ca> at: <http://ir.lib.sfu.ca/handle/1892/112>) and, without changing the content, to translate the thesis/project or extended essays, if technically possible, to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation of the digital work. The author has further agreed that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by either the author or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without the author’s written permission. Permission for public performance, or limited permission for private scholarly use, of any multimedia materials forming part of this work, may have been granted by the author. This information may be found on the separately catalogued multimedia material and in the signed Partial Copyright Licence. While licensing SFU to permit the above uses, the author retains copyright in the thesis, project or extended essays, including the right to change the work for subsequent purposes, including editing and publishing the work in whole or in part, and licensing other parties, as the author may desire. The original Partial Copyright Licence attesting to these terms, and signed by this author, may be found in the original bound copy of this work, retained in the Simon Fraser University Archive. Simon Fraser University Library Burnaby, BC, Canada Last revision: Spring 09 ABSTRACT Socio-Demographic Factors and Civic Voting Behaviour: The Case of Vancouver considers the relationship between voting behaviour in the 2008 Vancouver municipal election and socio-demographic characteristics of people living in Vancouver’s voting divisions. It includes a focus on voting behaviour and the socio-demographic variable of housing tenure. While related studies on election behaviour have taken place at the federal and provincial levels, little has taken place at the municipal level. Using quantitative data from Statistics Canada 2006 Census and City of Vancouver 2008 election, the hypotheses of these relationships are tested using regression analysis. The explanatory variables found to have a statistically significant influence on the vote for Vision Vancouver, the centre-left civic party, are university education, Chinese immigrants, rented dwellings, voter participation, youth, and persons 55 years and over. The socio-demographic data is further analyzed with thematic maps to provide additional context about the location of these voters in Vancouver. Keywords: Subject Terms: election; voters; Vancouver politics; municipal election; socio- demographic variables; voting behaviour iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I extend my gratitude to my Senior Supervisor, Dr. Patrick J. Smith for his patience and ability to provide guidance in such a supportive way. My gratitude also goes the committee members for dedicating their time and contributions to the project. I also extend my thanks to Dr. Kennedy Stewart for his expertise and very helpful suggestions with the design and direction of this project. I thank Carey Doberstein for his tutoring and strong ability in teaching me the essentials of regression. I extend a special thank you to Mario Lee for his time and dedication mentoring me during this academic pursuit. In addition, a special thank you to Kevin, my husband, for providing support and encouragement as I worked my way through the process of earning this degree. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval ..............................................................................................................ii Abstract ..............................................................................................................iii Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................iv Table of Contents................................................................................................v List of Figures ....................................................................................................vi List of Tables.....................................................................................................vii 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................2 1.1.1 Vancouver Municipal Politics...........................................................2 1.1.2 Research Question..........................................................................8 1.1.3 Context of Socio-Demographic Factors in Vancouver...................20 1.2 Review of Literature..........................................................................27 1.3 Significance of the Study ..................................................................43 2 Methodology ...................................................................................47 2.1 Data ..................................................................................................47 2.2 Methods............................................................................................50 2.3 Data Analysis....................................................................................52 2.3.1 Regression Analysis......................................................................52 2.3.2 Mapping ........................................................................................59 3 Results and Analysis......................................................................62 3.1 Results – Regression Analysis..........................................................62 3.1.1 Analysis of Significant Variables ...................................................70 3.1.2 Summary of the Significant Factors...............................................72 3.1.3 Limitations .....................................................................................72 3.2 Results – Map Findings ....................................................................73 3.3 Summary of the Results....................................................................84 4 Discussion and Conclusion...........................................................85 4.1 Limitations ........................................................................................88 4.2 Directions for Future Study ...............................................................90 Appendices........................................................................................................93 Appendix A ......................................................................................................94 Appendix B ......................................................................................................95 Reference List ...................................................................................................98 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Map of Vision Vancouver and NPA Vote in 2008 Municipal Election.................................................................................................6 Figure 2. Map of City of Vancouver Communities..............................................49 Figure 3. Map of Vote for Vision in 2008 Vancouver Municipal Election............74 Figure 4. Map of Rented Dwellings in 2006 / Vote for Vision in 2008 ................76 Figure 5. Map of Voter Participation in 2008 / Vote
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