Sarajevo a Stud Y in the Origins of the Grea Τ War

SARAJEVO A STUD Y IN THE ORIGINS OF THE GREA Τ WAR By R. W. SETON-WATSON D.Litt. (Oxon), Hon. Ph.D. (Prague and Zagreb); Masaryk Professor of Central European History in the University of London; Hon. Member of the Roumanian Academy LONDON: HUTCHINSON & CO. (Publishers), LTD. PATERNOSTER ROW, E.C. Made and Printed in Great Britain by The Camelot Press Limited, London and Southampton TO MY WIFE AS A MEMORY OF FOUR JUGOSLAV JOURNEYS TOGETHER (1912, 1913, 1920, 1925.) SARAJEVO (A SERB FOLKSONG) Sarajevo, whence comes thy gloom? Tell me, has fire consumed thee? Or has the flood engulfed thy streets? Or has the plague laid hold on thee? Softly Sarajevo gives answer: " Had fire consumed me so sore, My shining courts would rise again. Had the fierce flood engulfed my streets, My markets would be cleansed and fresh. But plague has laid her murderous hand, Her murderous hand on young and old, And those I love has torn apart." PREFACE MUCH has been written on the immediate origins of the Great War and the complicated diplomatic conflict which preceded actual hostilities; but till very recently the Balkan aspect of the question has not received the attention which it deserves. The two most authoritative surveys in English — Mr. Headlam-Morley's The History of Twelve Days (1915) and Sir Charles Oman's The Outbreak of the War (1918) — are now both out of date, owing to the subsequent publication of the German and Austrian diplomatic documents, and of much supple- mentary material of a less official character. Thus there is great need of a book summarising all the latest evidence on a question which is of burning importance in the Europe of to-day. The original German theory, which made of Britain and of Sir Edward Grey the villains of the piece, has long since been exploded, and, for the time at least, abandoned even in Germany itself: nor is it ever likely to convince any person who, with open mind, reads that statesman's newly published memoirs. The attack was then transferred to Russia, and the alleged methods by which a general mobilisation was carried out behind the back of the Tsar were treated as responsible for the final catastrophe. The superficiality of this argument was from the first apparent to all save the wilfully blind, and was finally demonstrated by the critical study of General Dobrorolski and other publications. The most recent tendency has been to shift the main responsibility on to the shoulders of Serbia; and it therefore becomes all the more necessary to place the Serbian side of the problem in the forefront of discussion, instead of treating 8 it as a mere accessory to general diplomatic history and thereby missing the true significance of events. The present volume, then, is an attempt to subject much new and hitherto undigested material to a critical and detailed analysis, and to place in their proper Euro- pean perspective both the Austro-Serbian quarrel and the crime of Sarajevo which resulted from it. I found myself almost involuntarily driven to the attempt, while engaged upon a larger work which traces the Jugoslav national movement from its origins to the achievement of unity and independence. It soon became obvious that to treat the crisis of 1914 in that detail which alone could ensure fairness and make it comprehensible would utterly destroy the proportions of the proposed book, and I therefore decided to detach it from the main narrative and present it to the public in a form which would leave freer play to the argument. During a long visit to Jugoslavia last spring I was able to obtain much additional information from first-hand sources, and especially from the survivors of the revolutionary movement inside the Dual Monarchy, whose spontaneous nature has been too often overlooked. It is hardly too much to assert that one prime cause of the disaster which befell Europe was the failure of her leading statesmen to estimate truly the forces at work in what was called the " Eastern " or " Balkan " Ques- tion. Without any accurate diagnosis there could obviously be no hope of applying an effective remedy; and hence the measures adopted between 1908 and 1914 at best only postponed, and at worst actually aggravated, the malady. One fact which emerges from the following narrative is the superficial outlook of all the Powers towards a problem so full of explosive elements as the Southern Slav; and this may perhaps serve as a reminder that similar national problems subsist in an acute and unsolved form, even in post-war Europe, and deserve close and constant attention. 9 In this connection I desire to make quite clear the motives which prompted me to undertake this work. After seven years of confusion and recrimination Europe at last seems to be moving slowly in the direction of peace and conciliation; and there is a tendency in some quarters to regard the question of responsibility either as a mere irritant which should now be relegated to the background and replaced by the motto "Forget and forgive," or as an insidious excuse for re-opening problems which the war has solved. Both these views seem to me fundamentally false. The question of war guilt is likely to, and ought to, occupy some measure of the attention of all who wish to see the European Common- wealth placed on a sounder and safer basis; for it provides the main clues by which we may judge and compare the merits of the old system and the new. An honest investigation of the causes of the war, however severe the verdict to which it may lead, cannot properly be regarded as a vindictive act towards our former enemies; and I for one am perfectly prepared to co- operate with German no less than Allied students of the problem, with a view to the elucidation of the truth. The stronger our condemnation of the old forces and the old regime, the keener should be our desire to establish a common basis of outlook and of action with the new. A considerable portion of the present volume had already been completed when the publication of an amazing article by Mr. Ljuba Jovanovic aroused acute controversy at home and abroad, and led to a determined attempt ta saddle Serbia with the main responsibility for the outbreak of the Great War. In chapter vi. I have tried to reduce this incident to its true-proportions, and. an appendix to the same chapter contains a summary of subsequent developments. The silence of Mr. PaSic and his Government — due apparently to intricate motives of internal party politics and to a singular indifference 10 to moral considerations — reflects great discredit upon them, and has gravely injured the reputation of their country abroad, but none the less it cannot affect the main issues involved. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Mr. Headlam- Morley, who allowed me to read the advanced proofs of the complete edition of British Diplomatic Documents relating to the outbreak of the war, which he has prepared for publication and which is due to appear shortly. I was thus enabled to add valuable points of detail to my narrative, and above all to assure myself that nothing really material to the issue had been withheld by the British Government in August 1914. Much has been written for and against Lord Grey's policy, but even to this day he has never received full credit for the publication of the frankest and fullest White Paper ever published in our history. The moral effect of that publication was simply incalculable, both at home and abroad; and the publication of the German, Austrian, and Russian documents, and the British Government's decision last December to entrust Mr. Gooch and Mr. Temperley with a similar task, were, it seems to me, merely the logical consequence of Lord Grey's initiative in August 1914 and of its decisive influence upon world opinion. R. W. SETON-WATSON. 15 November, 1925. CONTENTS CHAPTER I. THE AUSTRO-SERBIAN CONFLICT The Habsburg mission against the Turks–Serb reugeees in Hungary and Croatia-Byzantium and Rome-The Illyrian and Jugoslav ideas-Prince Michael-The Eastern crisis of 1875-8 and Austria-Hungary's occupation of Bosnia-Sebia under Milan and Alexander-Croatia under Khuen–The revival of 1903 – The „Pig War” – The Serbo-Croat Coalition – Austro-Hungarian and Russian rivalry in the Balkans- Aehrenthal and Izvolsky-The annexation of Bosnia – The Zagreb and Friedjung Trials-William II „in shining armour” – The Southern Slav Question as an International issue …………………… 15 CHAPTER II. THE BALKAN WARS The Bosnian Diet-Conrad and Italy-The Balkan League- The defeat of Turkey-Cuvaj's dictatorship m Croaüa- Tugoslav enthusiasm for the Balkan allies – The Prochaska Affair-Serbia's Adriatic claims -Conrad and the Southern Slavs-Berchtold and Masaryk-The Second Balkan War- The Treaty of Bucarest-Austria-Hungary held back by Italy and Germany-William II helps Kings Constantine and Charles — Berchtold, Conrad, and the war party in Vienna-Pasic s overtures rejected-Serbia and Russia-Balkan megalomania- Unrest in Bosnia and Croatia-Widespread conspiracy……………………….. 38 CHAPTER III. THE JUGOSLAV REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT Serbian sentiment for Bosnia-Kallay's warnings to Vienna- The revolutionary tradition — The new generation — Student journals — Kocic and Radulovic — Zerajic's attempt on the Governor – The Death of a Hero and its influence-The spread of terrorist ideas-Agitation in the schools-Gacinovic and his group — Constant demonstrations and terrorist talk — The conspirators in Sarajevo ……………………………………………… 63 12 CHAPTER IV. THE ARCHDUKE FRANCIS FERDINAND Character of the Archduke — Conflicts at Court — His desire for political changes — His hostility to Hungary — His foreign policy — His illness — William II and Francis Joseph — William II and Francis Ferdinand — Discussion of the Roumanian problem — Czernin's warnings — King Charles's alarm — The meeting of Konopiâtë — The growth of a legend…………………………… 80 CHAPTER V.

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