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Republic of Turkey the Study on Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand in Turkey

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Republic of Turkey the Study on Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand in Turkey REPUBLIC OF TURKEY GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF ELECTRIC POWER RESOURCES SURVEY AND DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION TURKISH ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CO. (TEIAS) REPUBLIC OF TURKEY THE STUDY ON OPTIMAL POWER GENERATION FOR PEAK DEMAND IN TURKEY February 2011 (2011) JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) IDD JR 10-131 Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the Study....................................................................................................................1 1.2 Purpose of the Study and Implementation Details............................................................................1 1.2.1 Purpose of the Study ...................................................................................................................1 1.2.2 Area in Which to Conduct the Study...........................................................................................1 1.2.3 Implementation Details (TOR).....................................................................................................1 1.3 Study Implementation Policy..............................................................................................................2 1.3.1 Scope of the Study Works...........................................................................................................2 1.3.2 Formulation of a Plan for Developing a Power Source..............................................................3 1.4 Study Organization and Study Achievements ..................................................................................3 1.4.1 Conducting Organizations of the Partner Country .....................................................................3 1.4.2 Composition of Study Group and Their Study Schedule...........................................................3 1.4.3 Study Achievements....................................................................................................................4 Chapter 2 Energy Sector and Electricity Sector..........................................................................................6 2.1 Energy Sector .....................................................................................................................................6 2.1.1 Energy Policy ...............................................................................................................................6 2.1.2 Energy Demand and Supply Status ...........................................................................................7 2.1.3 Situations Surrounding Energy ...................................................................................................8 2.2 Electricity Sector..................................................................................................................................8 2.2.1 Institutional Arrangement and Sector Overview.........................................................................8 2.2.2 Electricity Tariff System .............................................................................................................12 2.2.3 Role of Key Entities....................................................................................................................15 2.2.4 Power Demand and Supply ......................................................................................................17 2.2.5 Interconnection with Other Countries .......................................................................................35 Chapter 3 Review of Long-term Demand/Supply Plan ............................................................................39 3.1 Current status of Power Demand Forecast.....................................................................................39 3.2 Current Power Development Plan and Its Review .........................................................................42 3.2.1 Power Development Plan Liberalized Electricity Market .........................................................42 3.2.2 License Issuance Status............................................................................................................48 3.3 Current Status and Evaluation of System Planning........................................................................51 3.3.1 The Existing and Planned Transmission Lines and Substations up to 2012 .........................51 3.3.2 Power Flow of 380 kV Power Network System .......................................................................54 3.3.3 Methodology of Power Network System Planning ..................................................................56 3.4 Current Status of Power System Operation....................................................................................58 3.4.1 Overview of Power Market ........................................................................................................58 3.4.2 Demand and Supply Operation ................................................................................................59 3.4.3 Network Operation.....................................................................................................................61 Chapter 4 Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand.........................................................................68 4.1 Preliminary Analysis..........................................................................................................................68 4.1.1 Review of Existing Power Development Analysis by WASP4................................................68 4.1.2 Comparison between WASP and PDPAT...............................................................................72 4.2 Economic Comparison among Various Power Sources through Screening................................74 4.3 Formulation of Data for Demand and Supply Operation Simulation .............................................77 4.3.1 Demand Forecast ......................................................................................................................77 4.3.2 Current Status and Future Prospects for Peak Demand.........................................................78 4.3.3 Data on Generation Facilities....................................................................................................82 4.3.4 Economic Efficiency-Related Data ...........................................................................................88 4.4 Study of Appropriate Reserve Capacity Rate Based on Supply Reliability...................................89 4.4.1 Study of the Base Case.............................................................................................................89 4.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis.....................................................................................................................91 4.5 Possibility of Introduction of Various Power Supplies as Peak Supply Capacity....................... 101 4.5.1 Evaluation of Various Power Generations for Peak Demand.............................................. 101 4.5.2 Feasibility of Expansion of Existing Reservoir-Type Hydropower Plant as a Peak Supplier .................................................................................................................................. 103 4.5.3 Availability of Power Import from Neighboring Countries ..................................................... 114 4.6 Study of Optimal Power Supply Configuration in 2030 ............................................................... 116 4.6.1 Study of the Necessary Amount of Peak Supply Capacity .................................................. 116 4.6.2 Study on Necessary Amount of Pumped Storage Power Plants (Study in the Base Case)...................................................................................................................................... 121 4.6.3 Sensitivity Analysis.................................................................................................................. 128 4.6.4 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................... 132 4.7 Power Optimal Plan for Peak Demand ........................................................................................ 134 4.8 Roles and Functions of PSPP....................................................................................................... 140 Chapter 5 Finding and Evaluation of PSPP Potential Sites .................................................................. 145 5.1 Literature Documentation.............................................................................................................. 145 5.1.1 General Geology of Turkey .................................................................................................... 145 5.1.2 Environmental Policy in Turkey.............................................................................................. 147 5.2 Preparation of Criteria for Finding of PSPP Candidate Sites ...................................................... 152 5.3 Map Study ...................................................................................................................................... 153 5.4 Site Survey ..................................................................................................................................... 159 5.5 Detailed Site Survey on Conceptual Design Sites......................................................................
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