Where are the Agencies Human Space Flight (HFR) Programs Heading?

The following little summary tries to collect and compare data available on official an semi-official agency and other internet pages (as of October 2014) to show where the human spaceflight is heading in the future. The summary is by no means complete, however a trend might be detectable: The next two big goals, setting foot on the Moon again and flying astronauts/cosmonauts/taikonauts to Mars and guide them safely down to the surface could only be achieved as an international enterprise. With respect to the Moon it looks like the race "is on" but nobody participates. If any of you dear readers have more up-to-date information, please let me know (e-mail: [email protected]) .

USA (NASA) System Description Goal Remarks * Space Launch System Objective 1.1: Expand NASA's Asteroid Initiative has two (SLS) Program human presence into the main parts: a mission to identify, solar system and to the robotically capture, and redirect a * Payload surface of Mars to advance small asteroid into a stable lunar 70 t - 130 t to LEO exploration, science, orbit; and a grand challenge to innovation, benefits to promote global collaboration in humanity, and international finding all asteroid threats to human collaboration. populations and know what to do (NASA Strategic Plan, 2014) about them.

Orion * Multi-Purpose Crew ESA cooperation to deliver "NASA has has been challenged to Vehicle (MPCV) Program the Orion Service Modul develop capapbilities designed to 0 - 6 Crew members based on ESA's ISS cargo meet the unique challenges beyond carrier ATV (Automated low Earth orbit. These destinations * ATV-based Service Module Transfer Vehicle) include LaGrange Points, near-Earth NASA announced on asteroids, the Moon and eventually January 16, 2013, that ESA Mars" will construct the service (NASA Strategic Plan, 2014) module for Exploration Mission-1 in 2017.

Russia, Roscosmos (RKA) System Description Goal Remarks According to Russian Having conducted a recent study Test flights for the super media reports, the 2016-25 (known as Magistral) into the heavy booster are planned plan includes funding for a launch vehicle with a payload of for the 2028-2030 time new super heavy booster 75-80 tons and whose "open frame. (80t- 100t to LEO, like the architecture" would enable to The heavy-lift vehicle could Energia L/V) to support upgrade it later to carry up to launch elements for a lunar human deep space 120-130 tons into the low Earth base which would include exploration. orbit like the Buran launch vehicle habitation, laboratory and The new carrier rocket was able to. Whether the Russian power modules. Angara is set to become government would endorse, let Initial work on the Moon the base for the ambitious alone fund such a plan, remained base should begin in 2018. project that could bring unclear at the time. Cosmonauts would occupy Archive [1988] Buran, 100t to LEO on Russia back to its heyday the lunar base in the early Energia launch vehicle (discontinued). of space exploration. It 2030's could be launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome which is now being constructed in Russia's Far East, and will replace Kazakhstan's Baikonur as Russia's main launchpad. The 2016-25 plan also comprises a Soyuz replacement vehicle capapble of carrying cosmonaus to the moon and other destinations

Angara L/V family First of these two variants was a three-module PTK-Z Russia will go to the Moon to STAY! spacecraft. It was designed for long-duration autonomous missions in the Earth orbit, while a two-module PTK-S variant was intended to service the Earth-orbiting station, such In October 2010, Russian space as ISS. agency, Roskosmos, published its requirements to the industry for the The PTK-Z would carry a development of the Technical Project of max. crew of 6 cosmonauts the next-generation spacecraft, PTK NP. The document identified two versions of the spacecraft, which would be a priority for the Technical Project in the next two years.

China Space Agency (CSA) System Description Goal Remarks Long March 3B Long March is China's "From the rule of Long March 3B primary expendable science and moon launch system family. probe technology The Shenzhou spacecraft development, a place for long-term and Chang'e lunar residence (on the orbiters are also moon) will be built launched on the Long eventually," added March rocket. The the scientist, who is maximum payload also a member of the for LEO is 12 t (CZ-3B), National Committee the maximum payload of the Chinese for GTO is 5,5 t People's Political (CZ-3B/E). The next Consultative Possible Chinese Moon base generation rocket – Long Conference (conceptual design proposal) March 5 variants will offer (CPPCC), China's more payload in the top political advisory future. body. (March 2014) Shenzhou 7 Crew space: 3 Design life : 20 days Launch mass 7,840 Kg Dimensions 9.25 by 2.8 meters Volume 14.00 cubic meters Regime: Low Earth The planned Chinese 70 t space station consists of 3 Tiangong-type modules (construction to be completed around 2020).

Long March 9

(LM-9, CZ-9, or Changzheng “They very clearly tout [these missions] 9) is a Chinese super-heavy as leading up to the fully assembled station by 2022,” he said. “And they are very carrier rocket that is clear in currently in study. It is offering partnerships and user relationshipsin planned for a maximum that space station program". payload capacity of at least (Charles Walker, Shuttle Astronaut at ASE 130 t to LEO or at least 50 t congress Oct. 2014). Long March 9 (=CZ 9) : Right picture to Lunar Transfer Orbit.

Indian Space Agency (ISRO) System Description Goal Remarks GSLV Mark III Development for the GSLV The Indian human Mk III began in the early spaceflight programme is a 2000s, with the first launch proposal by the Indian Space planned for Research Organisation (ISRO) 2009-2010. [13] Several to develop and launch factors have delayed the the ISRO Orbital Vehicle , program, including the 15 which is to carry a April 2010 failure of the two-member crew to Low ISRO-developed cryogenic Earth Orbit . Recent reports upper stage on the GSLV Mk II. indicate that human Planned P/L performance spaceflight will occur after data: 2017, on a GSLV-Mk III , as 10 t to LEO the mission is not included 4 t to GTO in the government's 12th five-year plan The next test is planned for (2012–2017). [1] Since the end of 2014 ISRO does not have a human-rated launch vehicle or the budget from the government to undertake such a flight, it may not happen this decade. ISRO crew capsule The first orbital flight is planned to take place in 2016. [16] The first flight with a crew on board would take place after 2020

Japan (JAXA) System Description Goal Remarks

While the HTV, and Japanese plans for a As Japan’s space policy plans shift away eventually the HTV-R, are manned lunar landing were from research and development, launched on the H-IIB in development but were the Japan Aerospace Exploration rocket, all three of the shelved in early 2010 due Agency (JAXA) is finding its flagship proposed manned vehicles to budget constraints. [23] science, technology and manned — the two capsule variants In June 2014 Japan's spaceflight programs in line for cuts and and the mini-shuttle — science and technology cancellations. would be launched by a ministry said it was newly proposed rocket Some or all of Japan’s satellites planned considering a space called the H-X. for the Global Earth Observation System mission to Mars . In a H-X and HTV-R of Systems (GEOSS), the HTV-R * The H-X will be a new ministry paper it indicated pressurized sample-and-crew-return design to replace the unmanned exploration, mini-shuttle, and the H-X/H-3 launcher H-IIA/B launchers with manned missions to Mars programs could face cancellation, says higher reliability for and long-term settlement JAXA’s Hiroshi Sasaki, senior advisor for human-rated launches, and on the Moon were it's slated to become the strategic planning and management objectives, for which operational in the 2020s. department. (April 2013) international cooperation * GTO performance: and support was going to 2 t ...6.5 t be sought

Japan hopes to launch astronauts aboard a The capsule or mini-shuttle — which may manned capsule or space resemble Sierra Nevada's Dream plane by 2022, and the Chaser space plane — would each nation is also eyeing point- accommodate a crew of three and carry up to-point suborbital to 880 pounds (400 kilograms) of cargo, transportation over the officials with the Japan Aerospace longer haul. Exploration Agency (JAXA) said this month.

Europe (ESA) System Description Goal Remarks The two Ariane launchers The HSF goal in the ESA A decision between AR-5 ME (AR-5 Midlife are non-human rated. long term schedule is listed Extension) and AR-6 is to be expected as: during the ESA conference on ministerial * AR5 ME Scheduled Astronaut flights level in Nov. 2014 Upper stage to ISS until 2018, Columbus > CDR: May 2015 Ops until 2020 P/L mass: 12 t to GTO

* AR-6 > SRR June 2014

P/L mass: 6.5 t to GTO

CSA (Canadian Space Agency) System Description Goal Remarks "Canada will continue as an Money available for human space active partner and exploration and technology spinoffs, the participant in the Canadian Space Agency stated in May 2011 International Space Station," would decline from $105.9 million ($106.3 the report stated, adding million Canadian) in 2012-13 down to $92.7 "flight opportunities for million ($93 million) in 2014-15. In the same Canadian astronauts" would time period. be one of the priorities.

October 2014, Joachim J. Kehr Editor SpaceOps News