Analytical Questions for Shale Gas and Tight Oil Development in the U.S
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Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Consumer Energy Alliance February 21, 2013 | Washington, D.C. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 • Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth • Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade • Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards • The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s • U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040 Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 2 U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 Projections 120 100 28% Natural gas 24% 26% 80 11% 6% 8% Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 8% 60 8% Nuclear 9% 2% 23% 1% Liquid biofuels 20% Coal 19% 40 39% 20 36% Oil and other liquids 32% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 3 There are three main drivers of oil and natural gas production and resource estimates Economics Geology Technology Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 4 These three drivers impact resource estimation metrics differently over time in an iterative process Theory Experiment Practice Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth Geology Recompletions Drilling costs Technology Price of gas Economics Resources in Technically Economically Place Recoverable Recoverable P Resources Resources (TRR) (ERR) Q Well-level data, incl. estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 5 EIA’s focus is on the timing of production; the modeling focuses on these parameters • average initial production (IP) rate per well • average decline curve (can vary by region and vintage) • IP & decline curve define the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) per well Other parameters • drilling and operating costs • number of active rigs • how many wells a rig can drill (rig efficiency) • well spacing Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 6 Technically recoverable resources (TRR) result from the well analysis Area (acres) ÷ drainage area of a well × % of area not yet drilled × % area with potential × distribution of EUR/well (see previous slide, this is the area under the curve for an individual well) = undiscovered TRR Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 7 U.S. Shale Gas Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 8 Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new information, a combination of assessments and EIA updates U.S. dry gas resources USGS Marcellus trillion cubic feet Assessment 3000 Benchmarking Unproved shale gas Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) 2500 Proved reserves (all types and locations) 2,327 *Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. 2000 543 1500 1,479 1000 500 304 0 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO Edition Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 9 Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US Marcellus 25 Haynesville Eagle Ford 20 Bakken Woodford 15 Fayetteville Barnett 10 Antrim 5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of December 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 10 An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 2,000 Haynesville Cumulative production = EUR 100% Eagle Ford 1,500 Woodford Marcellus 50% Fayetteville 1,000 0% 0 5 10 15 20 500 0 0 1 5 10 15 20 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 11 For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 12 Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 10 Alaska Coalbed methane 5 Associated with oil Non-associated onshore 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 13 Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. 30 Electric 25 32% power 20 31% Industrial* 15 33% 33% 10 2% Gas to liquids 3% 6% Transportation** 13% 12% Commercial 5 19% 14% Residential 0 2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 14 Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come? U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5 Freight 38% 1% trucks 1.0 1% Buses 3% 1% Light-duty vehicles 0.5 3% Pipeline fuel 31% 95% 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 15 Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10 5 Net imports 0 -5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 16 U.S. Tight Oil Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 17 Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels 250 Unproved Alaska (1) Unproved L48 Offshore (2) 222.6 Unproved Tight Oil (3) 23.8 200 Unproved Tight Oil (reclassified from onshore) Unproved Other L48 Onshore Proved Reserves 48.6 150 41.6 100 16.5 67.0 50 25.2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year of Annual Energy Outlook (1) The USGS reduced NPR-A resource estimates, which is responsible for the lower AEO2013 Alaska resources. (2) Prior to AEO2009, resources in Pacific, Atlantic, and Eastern GOM OCS were under moratoria and not included. (3) Includes shale oil. Prior to AEO2011, tight oil is included in unproved other lower-48 onshore category. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 18 Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day 2.0 1.8 Eagle Ford Bakken 1.6 Granite Wash Bonespring 1.4 Monterey Woodford 1.2 1.0 Niobrara-Codell Spraberry 0.8 Austin Chalk 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through August 2012 Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 19 U.S. tight oil production by selected plays U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 1.0 0.9 Bakken Eagle Ford 0.8 Woodford 0.7 Austin Chalk 0.6 Spraberry Niobrara 0.5 Avalon/Bone Springs 0.4 Monterey Wolfcamp 0.3 Other 0.2 0.1 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 20 U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil projection 6 Tight oil 4 Other lower 48 onshore 2 Lower 48 offshore Alaska 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 21 U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 25 20 45% Net petroleum and biofuel imports 37% 15 Biofuels excluding imports 10 Natural gas plant liquids 17% 12% 7% 1% Liquids from natural gas and coal 5 5% 38% Petroleum production 38% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Note: Petroleum production includes: crude oil, lease condensates, refinery gain, stock changes Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 22 More stringent standards for liquids consumption in light-duty vehicles made a big difference in EIA’s demand projections Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6 4 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 23 Global Shale Gas and Tight Oil Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 24 EIA/ARI study to update & expand coverage of shale gas assessment and identifying prospective tight oil formations ,not assessed Source: U.S.