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Assessment of Academic Program Alignment with Regional Occupation Projections Assessment of Academic Program Alignment with Regional Occupation Projections Northern Wyoming Community College District Sheridan College, Sheridan College in Johnson County, and Gillette College May 14, 2015 Draft Posted to Trustee Portal 4/24/2015 Note: This paper is intended to inform discussions among NWCCD’s senior staff. As an institution that participates in the Academic Quality Improvement Process (AQIP) for accreditation we are committed to making data driven decisions. Sometimes we have examined data narrowly and written justification for a decision we have already made or for a potential initiative such as a grant proposal. Several white papers, grant applications, studies and cases for support have been based on labor market information, industry trends, and occupation projections. The research for this paper takes a broader view by starting with all occupations in Wyoming (demand) and all certificates of completion and associates of applied science degrees currently offered by NWCCD (supply). Contributing team: Susan Bigelow, Jay Lindsay (Gillette College White Paper), Joy Baule (Colleague Student Information System data queries), Sharon Elwood and Steffi Rawlings for technical support. White papers, studies, and spreadsheets are available from [email protected] . Assessment of Academic Program Alignment with Regional Occupation Projections Northern Wyoming Community College District ii Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... i Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 Figure 1 Aligning Academics and Economics ...................................................................... 1 Literature Review ........................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 2 Education Pays ...................................................................................................... 4 Former NWCCD Studies .............................................................................................................. 7 Sheridan College Enrollment White Paper (February 2013) .................................................. 7 Table 1 Northeast Wyoming Region Occupational Projections 2011 to 2021 show growth in several related occupations ............................................................................... 9 Table 2 Forecasted Net Growth in Selected Occupations for Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota..................................................................................................................... 10 Phase 1 Report: Career and Technical Education Training Assets Analysis (May 2013) ..... 10 Figure 3 Two Phases of Career and Technical Education Analysis ................................... 11 Table 3 Target Industry Sectors and Career Tech Education Programs Matrix ................ 14 Table 4 Certificates and Degrees Conferred and Supported Industries (CAEL/Avalanche Phase 1 Report) ................................................................................................................. 14 Gillette College Enrollment White Paper (January 2014) ..................................................... 16 Table 5 Occupations to Educational Goals Alignment, Gillette College 2014 .................. 16 Table 6 Gillette College Enrollment Strategies and Related Occupations, 2014 White Paper ................................................................................................................................. 16 Labor Market Analysis for TAACCCT Round 4 Grant Application (June 2014) ..................... 17 Table 7 Top Ranked Occupations by Education Level ...................................................... 18 Table 8 Cross-walk between occupations and industry employers ................................ 18 Demand for Nurses from Sheridan College (November 2014) ............................................. 19 Table 9 Wyoming: Projected Demand for New Nurses 2012 to 2022 ............................ 21 Demand for Dental Hygienists from Sheridan College (December 2014) ............................ 22 Table 10 Dental Hygienists Degrees Awarded in Wyoming by Year (DH Paper) .............. 23 Table 11 Occupation: Dental Hygienists (SOC code 29-2021) (DH Paper) ....................... 23 Demographic Trends ................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 4 K-12 Enrollment: Northeast Wyoming Districts Fall 2012 .................................. 24 Figure 5 Historical Enrollment in Northeast Wyoming Districts ....................................... 24 Figure 6 Production of High School Graduates: Wyoming .............................................. 25 Industry Trends ......................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 7 Employment by Industry - Northeast Wyoming Region 1Q13 ........................... 26 Figure 8 Minerals Assessed Valuation - Wyoming - January 2014 CREG Report ............. 27 Figure 9 Minerals Assessed Valuation - Wyoming - January 2015 CREG Report ............. 27 Methodology to Assess Alignment ........................................................................................... 28 Does NWCCD have instructional programs in place to train students for high-demand high- wage occupations in northeast Wyoming and in Wyoming? ............................................... 28 Table 12 Step-by-step process to identify top 25 occupations based on demand, wage, and skill ............................................................................................................................. 29 Table 13 Top 25 occupations, median earnings, annual openings 2012-2022 and jobs .. 30 Assessment of Academic Program Alignment with Regional Occupation Projections Northern Wyoming Community College District iii Table 14 Certificates and associates degrees awarded 2012-2013 ................................. 31 Table 15 Occupation to Instructional Program Crosswalk for 25 Selected Occupations . 32 Table 16 NWCCD Programs related to Top 25 High-Demand High-Wage Occupations .. 35 Table 17 High Demand High Wage Occupations not supported with or identified by an NWCCD program ............................................................................................................... 36 Is there demand in northeast Wyoming and Wyoming for graduates of NWCCD’s current instructional programs? ........................................................................................................ 37 Table 18 Number of degrees and certificates awarded, by level and program: 2012-13 38 Table 19 Programs of study offered by NWCCD ............................................................... 39 Table 20 Demand in Gainful Employment Occupations and Supply of Completers ....... 40 Table 21 Is there demand in high-wage jobs for program completers? (Gainful employment programs only) ............................................................................................ 43 Table 22 Supply of Completions exceeds Demand for Workers ...................................... 44 Table 23 Construction Apprenticeship Related Occupations ........................................... 45 Table 24 Remaining Certificate and Associates Degree Programs offered by NWCCD ... 46 Concluding Observations and Recommendations .................................................................... 48 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 51 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 52 Table 25 NWCCD Awards 2011-2014 ............................................................................... 53 Table 26 Top 25 Occupations based on High-Wage, High-Demand, Postsecondary Training ............................................................................................................................. 56 Table 27 NWCCD Gainful Employment Certificates, Targeted Occupations and Occupational Data............................................................................................................. 59 Table 28 Remaining Academic Programs Crosswalk with Occupations .......................... 65 Assessment of Academic Program Alignment with Regional Occupation Projections Northern Wyoming Community College District iv Executive Summary The Northern Wyoming Community College District chooses to align our college with its communities, and align our academic programs with economic sectors and occupations in high- demand and paying high-wages in our region. The purpose for the assessment is to answer two questions about the alignment of NWCCD’s academic programs and the demand for new workers in occupations in northeast Wyoming. 1. Does NWCCD have instructional programs in place to train students for high-demand high-wage occupations in northeast Wyoming and in Wyoming? 2. Is there demand in northeast Wyoming and Wyoming for graduates of NWCCD’s current instructional programs? The employer discussions, labor market analysis and occupational projections support strong demand in high-wage occupations for several existing programs: Diesel Technology, Industrial Electricity, Welding,
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