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National Westminster Bank Plc National Westminster Bank Plc Primary Credit Analyst: Richard Barnes, London + 44 20 7176 7227; [email protected] Secondary Contact: John Wright, London (44) 20-7176-0520; [email protected] Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Outlook Rationale Related Criteria Related Research WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 1 National Westminster Bank Plc Major Rating Factors Global Scale Ratings Issuer Credit Rating A/Negative/A-1 Resolution Counterparty Rating A+/--/A-1 Strengths: Weaknesses • Core subsidiary of NatWest Group plc. • The sharp recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased credit impairments. • Solid market position across U.K. retail, commercial, and private banking. • Pressure on revenues from the flatter yield curve and reduced customer activity in some product • Supportive capital, funding, and liquidity profiles. segments. • Geographically concentrated in the U.K. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 2 National Westminster Bank Plc Outlook S&P Global Ratings' negative outlook on National Westminster Bank Plc (NWB) mirrors that on ultimate parent NatWest Group plc (NWG; previously named The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc). It reflects downside risks to the group's asset quality and earnings from the economic and market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although we view positively NWG's robust balance sheet profile and the unprecedented fiscal and monetary response, an extended economic downturn could further increase impairment losses and weaken revenues over our two-year outlook horizon. Our ratings on NWB will move in tandem with those on NWG as long as we continue to view NWB as a core subsidiary of the group. Downside scenario We could lower the ratings on NWG and NWB if we think the deteriorating operating environment could materially weaken NatWest's asset quality and profitability. The likely trigger for us to consider a downgrade is a lowering of our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment for the U.K., NWG's home market. In that scenario, we would consider the extent to which NWG's balance sheet strengths may mitigate the adverse economic conditions. We could lower the ratings on NWB independently of a rating action on NWG if we saw NWB becoming less integral to the parent's strategy, which is not a likely scenario given its position at the heart of the retail and commercial banking franchise. Upside scenario We could revise the outlook on NWG and NWB to stable if NWG's earnings and balance sheet metrics remain resilient, or if governments and central banks are successful in averting a deep and long-lasting recession. Rationale Our ratings on U.K.-incorporated NWB reflect our view that it is a core subsidiary of NWG. This assessment is based on NWB's integral role in NWG's strategy, material share of the group's capital base and financial performance, and strong link to the group's brand and reputation. We align our long-term issuer credit rating on NWB with the 'a' group credit profile, which includes a two-notch uplift for ALAC, and we do not assess NWB's stand-alone credit profile. Representing 50% of NWG's regulatory risk-weighted assets at Sept. 30, 2020, NWB is the group's largest subsidiary and the main entity in the ring-fenced bank sub-group. It is active in retail and commercial banking in England and Wales, where it is one of the traditional "big four" players alongside Barclays Bank UK PLC, HSBC UK Bank plc, and Lloyds Bank plc. It also owns Ulster Bank Ltd., a leading retail and commercial bank in Northern Ireland, and U.K. private bank Coutts & Company. The impact of COVID-19 caused NWB to report a £204 million pretax operating loss for the first half of 2020. IFRS 9 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 3 National Westminster Bank Plc impairment charges grew significantly to £1.9 billion as the sharp deterioration in the economic outlook increased the bank's expected credit losses. NWG's reported earnings for the third quarter of 2020 indicate that NWB's impairment charges would have been materially lower in that period. NWB's common equity Tier 1 ratio was a healthy 17.0% at Sept. 30, 2020, providing comfortable headroom over minimum regulatory requirements. The ratio improved from 15.9% at year-end 2019 and included a 115 basis points uplift from the IFRS 9 transitional arrangement on expected credit losses. NWB has a pivotal role in NWG's February 2020 strategy update, which focuses on supporting customers, improving cost efficiency, and rationalizing the capital markets business. NWB's reported 62% cost-to-income ratio for the first half of 2020 lagged more efficient peers, although partly due to its role as the main provider of shared services to the group. Residential mortgages represented 55% of NWB's £263 billion gross loans at June 30, 2020, unsecured consumer credit 4%, and the remainder was corporate and commercial lending across a range of sectors. The portfolio grew by 22% on an annualized basis in the first half of 2020 as COVID-19 uncertainty prompted drawdowns from revolving corporate credit facilities and government-guaranteed lending schemes. Mortgage demand was also strong. NWB's stage 2 and stage 3 loans represented 25.9% and 1.3%, respectively, of its portfolio at June 30, 2020. The stage 2 proportion is higher than many peers and we take into account that NWG applies a relatively low threshold to migrate loans to stage 2 from stage 1. We view NWB's funding and liquidity profiles as solid. Reflecting its strong franchise in retail and commercial deposit markets, the loan-to-deposit ratio was a healthy 95% at June 30, 2020. Customer deposits grew by 24% on an annualized basis in the first half of 2020 as households and corporates reduced spending and prioritized liquidity in response to the pandemic. We include ALAC uplift in the ratings on NWB because, through internal downstreaming, we believe senior creditors will benefit from the ALAC buffer amassed by NWG. Related Criteria • Group Rating Methodology, July 1, 2019 • Hybrid Capital: Methodology And Assumptions, July 1, 2019 • Methodology For Assigning Financial Institution Resolution Counterparty Ratings, April 19, 2018 • Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology, July 20, 2017 • Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017 • Guarantee Criteria, Oct. 21, 2016 • Bank Rating Methodology And Assumptions: Additional Loss-Absorbing Capacity, April 27, 2015 • Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013 • Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 4 National Westminster Bank Plc • Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 • Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011 • Commercial Paper I: Banks, March 23, 2004 Related Research • NatWest Group plc, Nov. 23, 2020 • NatWest Markets Plc, Nov. 23, 2020 • Preparedness And Resilience Keep The U.K.'s Banking Industry In BICRA Group 3 Despite The Second National Lockdown, Nov. 17, 2020 • Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United Kingdom, Nov. 17, 2020 • United Kingdom 'AA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable, Oct. 23, 2020 • How COVID-19 Is Affecting Bank Ratings: October 2020 Update, Oct. 22, 2020 • Economic Research: The Second Wave And Brexit Will Test The U.K. Recovery, Oct. 1, 2020 • U.K. Banks' Creditworthiness Will Be Tested As Fiscal Support Ebbs, Aug. 13, 2020 • COVID-19 Effects Might Quadruple U.K. Bank Credit Losses In 2020, May 4, 2020 • Royal Bank of Scotland Outlook Revised To Negative On Economic Impact Of COVID-19; Ratings Affirmed, April 23, 2020 • Bulletin: Royal Bank Of Scotland Unveils Plan To Shrink Capital Markets Business And Cut Costs, Feb. 14, 2020 • Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United Kingdom, Dec. 5, 2019 Ratings Detail (As Of November 23, 2020)* National Westminster Bank Plc Issuer Credit Rating A/Negative/A-1 Resolution Counterparty Rating A+/--/A-1 Commercial Paper Local Currency A-1 Junior Subordinated BB Junior Subordinated BB+ Preference Stock BB Senior Unsecured A Short-Term Debt A-1 Subordinated BBB- Issuer Credit Ratings History 23-Apr-2020 A/Negative/A-1 16-May-2019 A/Stable/A-1 31-May-2018 A-/Positive/A-2 15-Nov-2017 BBB+/Positive/A-2 07-Jul-2016 BBB+/Stable/A-2 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 5 National Westminster Bank Plc Ratings Detail (As Of November 23, 2020)*(cont.) 19-Jan-2016 BBB+/Positive/A-2 Sovereign Rating United Kingdom AA/Stable/A-1+ Related Entities NatWest Group plc Issuer Credit Rating BBB/Negative/A-2 Commercial Paper Foreign Currency A-2 Junior Subordinated B+ Junior Subordinated BB Junior Subordinated BB- Preference Stock BB- Senior Unsecured A- Senior Unsecured BBB Short-Term Debt A-2 Subordinated BB+ NatWest Markets N.V. Issuer Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 Resolution Counterparty Rating A/--/A-1 Commercial Paper Local Currency A-2 Senior Unsecured A- Short-Term Debt A-2 Subordinated BB+ NatWest Markets Plc Issuer Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 Resolution Counterparty Rating A/--/A-1 Commercial Paper Foreign Currency A-2 Junior Subordinated BB Resolution Counterparty Liability A Senior Unsecured A- Short-Term Debt A-2 Subordinated BB+ NatWest Markets Securities Inc. Issuer Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 Resolution Counterparty Rating A-/--/A-2 Senior Unsecured A- Royal Bank of Scotland International Limited Issuer Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 Commercial Paper Foreign Currency A-2 Royal Bank of Scotland plc (The) Issuer Credit Rating A/Negative/A-1 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 6 National Westminster Bank Plc Ratings Detail (As Of November 23, 2020)*(cont.) Resolution Counterparty Rating A+/--/A-1 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Issuer Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 Resolution Counterparty Rating A/--/A-1 Ulster Bank Limited Issuer Credit Rating A/Negative/A-1 Resolution Counterparty Rating A+/--/A-1 *Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings.
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