Management, Ecosystems and Ecosystem-based Management of Fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico James H. Cowan, Jr., LSU Jake Rice, DFO, Canada Carl Walters, UBC, Fisheries Center Tim Essington and Ray Hilborn, UW John Day, LSU Kevin Boswell, LSU Source: LSU Earth Scan Laboratory Topics for Discussion (2 parts) Part 1. What I don’t know about fish/habitat relationships in the Mississippi River ecosystem Part 2. What I don’t know about ecosystem based fisheries management (ESBFM) But first, what is ESBFM? Short answer---we have no idea “Neither the science of ecosystem assessments nor the policy of integrated ecosystem-scale management is yet mature. Although modest progress has been made (examples include the Convention on Biological Diversity [CBD] 2009; NOAA 2009), consensus has not yet emerged on key components of the scientific basis for ecosystem-scale assessment and management (e.g., the appropriate spatial scale at which management should operate and/or is likely to be effective), nor on the form and extent of integration of fisheries management with other regulatory agencies” Now to the western Gulf of Mexico, for example-- Cowan et al. 2012 US Landings by Port LA alone accounts for 75% of landings in the US Gulf!! LA The “Fertile GoM Crescent” What generates this productivity? km 2 coastal wetlands (and estuarine dependency of juveniles) FL LA MX (from Deegan et al. 1986) 40% of the coastal wetlands in the US 14,834 km2 >80% of US coastal wetland loss >70% of species estuarine dependent A conundrum?--let’s look at the commercial landings data LA = ~75% of landings in US Gulf Why aren’t landings decreasing? Contributing Factors or • Wetland loss • Wetland loss • Hypoxia • Habitat modification • Eutrophication • Eutrophication • Fishing impacts • Climate change • Bycatch • Climate change Why aren’t landings decreasing? 1km2 of marsh reduced to < 0.25 km2 Marsh Edge Increasing Marsh Degradation Already determined to be highly degraded and overexploited Caribbean Gulf and South Atlantic Ironically, increased landings can be a symptom of fishing down food webs!! Gulf of Mexico Fisheries? Nexus Past the tipping point? fishing If so, how do we restore? Fisheries ProductivityFisheries Before Now Topics for Discussion (2 parts) Part 1. What I don’t know about fish/habitat relationships in the Mississippi River ecosystem Part 2. What I don’t know about ecosystem based management --let’s begin by assuming Pauly and Palomares (2005) are correct Fishing regulations? A regime shift? A shift in the ecological baseline? Are the differences important? Maybe, if reversibility is at stake Jackson et al. (2001) 32 football fields every day Restoration Efforts Smooth Abrupt (predictable) (less predictable) Reversible Irreversible (Sensible) (“Hysterical”) Bottom-up Top-down (Climate, natural (Man-induced delta cycles) wetland loss) Adaptive Management Control ? Adapt Control or Adapt? Both are ecosystem based Some forcing variables of fish communities Gulf of Mexico Fisheries Are we approaching a nexus for change? Nexus Does ESBFM = EBM? DWH spill? Fisheries ProductivityFisheries Now Later Are we employing ESBFM in the Gulf? Depends on who you talk to . It is safe to say that people are thinking about the issue---but some of this is poorly informed ESBFM in the Gulf? None unless “faith-based” approaches count EEZ Red=HAPC Blue=Spawning site Green=Proposed More “faith-based” management . • Oil rigs in Northern Gulf • Alabama artificial reef zones • Florida has >2,300 reef sites, including 703 ships • 1-4% increase in habitat area (quality?) • Critical thinking is not well received!!! Hurricane Katrina >560 km2 • What and what if? • What will happen to the fisheries ecosystem if wetland loss remains high (or gets worse)? • What will happen if we have to make big changes to restore the coastal ecosystem? (big changes are planned, so what are the tradeoffs?) Are we prepared to manage ecosystems? Understanding ecosystem function is necessary to develop restoration and management programs, and for development of sustainable exploitation--do we have the tools? Empirical Economical/Political Societal Empirical—many, some, or none? PNAS 107: 2740-2744 (2008) See new book by Link 2010 for more information Economical/Jurisdictional Green Bars: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)--rates current international dollars Filled Areas: Collapses (color gradient from yellow to red). Yellow is 0-60 collapses. Red is 345-544 collapses Estimated commercial landings of red grouper from Florida West coast since 1950 and method of capture since 1986 Societal? Distribution of early urban societies. The Primary production is related to fisheries yield distribution of coastal mangroves and salt marshes With Post Glacial Maximum estuaries is indicated by dark and light shades (Day et al. being 10 times more productive than open marine systems 2007 EOS 88:170-171) In Louisiana, coastal restoration possibly can be achieved by reintroduction of Mississippi River sediments via diversions, but the delta cycle will take 500-1,000 years to complete. Can we afford RLB approaches? Can society think long term? I hope so, but I am not optimistic!! There is much in the literature to suggest that humans have evolved using the experiences of the previous 3 or so generations to make decisions looking into the future for the next 1 or 2 generations. How many times have you heard arguments made for one’s grand children’s grandchildren? Updated model projections based upon Meadows et al. THE LIMITS TO GROWTH Universe Books, New York, 1972. The update is from Hall and Day, 2009. Am. Sci. 97: 230-237 [ASPO] Association for the Study of Peak Oil. 2008.Oil and Gas Liquids 2004 Scenario. (5March 2009; www.peakoil.net/uhdsg) Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide by Pierre Friedlingstein and Susan Solomon in PNAS 102: 10832-10836 (2005) In conclusion, I have no conclusions, only questions Does Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management = Ecosystem-Based Management? Are changes (improvements?) in existing ecological baselines requisite to success? If the answer to either of the above is yes, does the added complexity of ecosystem restoration change the metrics and time course of implementation, and expectations of management outcomes? Can science contribute to policy making? (corollary?)—A Louisiana Story The Caernarvon Diversion Historically, freshwater flooding was responsible for creating and maintaining wetlands in Louisiana (Coleman et al., 1998) River diversions like the Caernarvon River Diversion (CRD) try to mimic historic flooding and are thereby expected to restore wetlands and wetland functioning (Day et al., 1995)(restoration aspect may have been oversold??) The CRD has been reintroducing freshwater from the Mississippi to the Breton Sound estuary since 1992 This diversion has been an enormous source of controversy and, at times, acrimonious debate about the use of diversions as restoration tools The Debate in a Nutshell • Some think it works • Some think it doesn’t work • I think it doesn’t matter---why? Caenarvon is a bad model to study sediment diversions!! Persistent Land Loss from 1932 to 2010 Courtvillion et al. 2010 West Bay 2011 Caernarvon Delta August 29, 2011 Questions? .