Please cite this paper as: Lasek J., Gagolewski M., The efficacy of league formats in ranking teams, Statistical Mod- elling 18(5{6), 2018, pp. 411{435. doi:10.1177/1471082X18798426 The Efficacy of League Formats in Ranking Teams Jan Lasek 1 and Marek Gagolewski 2 1 Interdisciplinary PhD Studies Program, Institute of Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences 2 Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science and Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences Address for correspondence: Jan Lasek, Institute of Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Jana Kazimierza 5, 01-248 Warsaw, Poland. E-mail:
[email protected]. Phone: |. Fax: |. Abstract: The efficacy of different league formats in ranking teams according to their true latent strength is analysed. To this end, a new approach for estimating at- tacking and defensive strengths based on the Poisson regression for modelling match outcomes is proposed. Various performance metrics are estimated reflecting the agree- ment between latent teams' strength parameters and their final rank in the league table. The tournament designs studied here are used in the majority of European Please cite this paper as: Lasek J., Gagolewski M., The efficacy of league formats in ranking teams, Statistical Modelling 18(5{6), 2018, pp. 411{435. doi:10.1177/1471082X18798426 top-tier association football competitions. Based on numerical experiments, it turns out that a two-stage league format comprising of the three round-robin tournament together with an extra single round-robin is the most efficacious setting. In particu- lar, it is the most accurate in selecting the best team as the winner of the league.