Egypt-Libya Truce Precarious

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The July 21 attack by Egypt into Libyan territory was capitulation, Libyan government emissaries have ac preceded by months of steady troop build-ups by the cused Egypt of working intimately with the United States Egyptians along Libya's border. In May, according to and Israel to destroy Arab national interests and of pre the London Economist, the Egyptians were ready to paring the way for the extermination of the Palestine move, but were impeded by Soviet diplomatic interven Liberation Organization. Libya's Ambassador to France, tion and by short-lived Soviet-Egyptian talks on the res for example, charged this week that Egypt had "gotten toration of positive bilateral relations. By at least as the green light from the U.S. and Israel" to carry out its early as mid-June, the July 24 Jerusalem Post reported, invasion of Libya. U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Hermann Eilts was fully aware of Egyptian invasion plans. Mediation Efforts, Soviet Response When Egyptian President Sadat gave the orders for the While there is still a strong possibility of a renewed out invasion, New York's Senator Jacob Javits was hardly break of heavy fighting, intense mediation efforts con surprised. Javits had been in Cairo the previous weekend tinue. By July 28, PLO leader Arafat was able to declare and had informed Sadat that Wall Street was declaring in a Damascus press conference that a cease fire had "open season" on OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum been arranged on the basis of a Kuwaiti-Algerian leader Exporting Countries. So once a small-scale border in:' Houari Boumedienne had shuttled between Tripoli and cident gave Sadat the pretext, he ordered the attack. Cairo, in the latter capital warning the Egyptians that he Other calculations have entered into the malleable was prepared to intervene on the side of Libya if the Egyptian President's mind. According to a knowledge Egyptian attacks continued. able Chase Manhattan Mideast expert, Sadat "wanted to The Foreign Ministers of Iraq and Syria have also en keep the Begin-Carter talks, which were disastrous from gaged in mediation efforts during the week. According to his point of view, off the front pages of the Cairo papers, the July 24 Jerusalem Post, the Saudis have sent con and he has succeeded in doing this." Sadat is reeling cerned messages to Egypt warning that further fighting internally in Egypt from periodic public outbreaks of un risked provoking a military intervention by the Soviet rest during this year, from an economic collapse that is Union on the side of Libya. being stage-managed by the International Monetary Publicly, the Soviets have played the situation relative .. -Fund, and from the thorough discrediting of his persis ly low-key, which has misled many observers in the U.S . tent "rely-on-the-Rockefellers" foreign policy. into believing a contrived U.S. National Security Council Were Sadat simply intent on "giving (Libyan leader) fantasy that the Egypt-Libya conflict was itself pre-ar Qaddafi a lesson," as his ;July 22 nationwide speech re ranged by the superpowers "to let off some steam." In peatedly emphasized, the fighting need never have reality, the Soviets are watching the situation extremely reached the proportion of full-scale warfare. After an closely, fully aware of the Carter Administration's inten initial skirmish nea&.theLibyan town of Mossaid in which tions to expand the crisis throughout Africa and into a several Libyan tanks and jets were knocked out, the vast general crusade against OPEC. ly superior Egyptian forces extended the fight towards Otherwise, the Soviets and their Warsaw Pact allies the southeastern Libyan town of Kufra, near oil installa have made it clear where they stand on this regional tions, and along the Libyan Mediterranean coast. Heavy "limited" war. An official solidarity committee in East "; enough damage was inflicted to create a steady flow of Germany and the Moscow-based Afro-Asian Peoples · refugees westward toward the city of Benghazi, accord Solidarity Committee have expressed support for the ing to the London Financial Times. Libyans. The Cuban ambassador in Cairo has expressed After unleashing heavy fighting, Sadat later in the his government's alarm at the repercussions of the week demanded a veritable surrender from the Libyans Egyptian attacks on Libyan security and development. in return for Egyptian acceptance of a ceasefire mediated by the Algerians and the Palestine Liberation Expansion of the Conflict Organization. Sadat insisted that Libya dismantle its An imminent expansion of the crisis into the volatile Soviet-manned radar base near the Egyptian border and Horn of Africa region and across North Africa is highly that Qaddafi discontinue all political campaigning likely. The Horn of Africa area is being lit ablaze by a against Sadat's pro-U.S. policies. According to the July wildly provocative U.S. government arms sales policy. 27 Al Safir newspaper, these conditions have been As for North Africa, informed European military of thoroughly rejected by Libya, which has instead called ficials report that the U.S.-controlled Moroccan govern for vigilance and mobilization of its population to combat ment is planning to open a "second front" against Al the continued threat from Egypt. According to one geria in the next days. The London Financial Times re-' veteran Mideast observer, "Qaddafi could never accept ported July 27 that Egypt and Morocco have recently those terms, so the chance of renewed fighting is very inked a mutual defense pact which virtually certifies a great." Maghreb-wide expansion of the confrontation. Aside from rejecting Sadat's demands for Libyan -Mark Burdman

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