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Airport Master Plan Update Airport Master Plan Update Working Paper No. 2 PHOENIX GOODYEAR AIRPORT PHOENIX, ARIZONA | MAY 2017 FAA AIP NO. 3-04-0018-21-16 ADOT NO. E7F3C PROJECT NO. AV41000072 FAA Phoenix Goodyear Airport Airport Master Plan Update Working Paper 2 Prepared for City of Phoenix Aviation Department By Armstrong Consultants, Inc. 2345 S. Alma School Road, Suite 208 Mesa, AZ 85210 In association with The Genesis Consulting Group, LLC Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. Woolpert, Inc. May 2017 FAA AIP No. 3-04-0018-21-16 ADOT No. E7F3C Project No. AV41000072 FAA The preparation of this document was financed in part through a planning grant from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as provided in the Airport and Airways Improvement Act of 1982, as amended. The contents of this report reflect the analysis and finding of Armstrong Consultants, Inc. who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the FAA. Acceptance of this report by the FAA does not in any way constitute a commitment on the part of the United States to participate in any development depicted therein nor does it indicate that the proposed development is environmentally acceptable with applicable Public Laws. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 3 - Aviation Activity Forecasts ....................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Summary of Results .............................................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.3 Historical and Current Aviation Activity .......................................................................................................... 3-3 Based Aircraft ................................................................................................................................................ 3-4 Aircraft Operations ....................................................................................................................................... 3-4 Comparison of Activity Within the Region .............................................................................................. 3-5 3.4 National Aviation Trends .................................................................................................................................... 3-8 FAA Projected GA Forecast Trends ......................................................................................................... 3-9 3.4.1-1 Active Pilots ........................................................................................................................................... 3-9 3.4.1-2 Active Hours Flown .......................................................................................................................... 3-10 3.4.1-3 Active General Aviation Aircraft Fleet........................................................................................... 3-10 General Aviation Activity Trends ........................................................................................................... 3-14 3.4.2-1 Fuel Costs ............................................................................................................................................ 3-16 3.4.2-2 National and International Pilots Shortage .................................................................................... 3-16 3.4.2-3 Business Use of Aviation .................................................................................................................. 3-17 3.4.2-4 NextGen .............................................................................................................................................. 3-18 3.4.2-5 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) ................................................................................................ 3-18 3.5 Socioeconomic Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 3-19 Population ................................................................................................................................................... 3-19 Regional Economy ..................................................................................................................................... 3-20 Per Capita Personal Income ..................................................................................................................... 3-22 Socioeconomic Trends – Summary ........................................................................................................ 3-22 3.6 Other Relevant Trends and Activities ............................................................................................................ 3-23 Developable Land ...................................................................................................................................... 3-23 NASCAR ..................................................................................................................................................... 3-23 Spring Training ........................................................................................................................................... 3-23 Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) ........................................................................... 3-24 Flight Training ............................................................................................................................................ 3-24 3.7 Previous Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................. 3-25 3.8 Forecast Assumptions ....................................................................................................................................... 3-26 3.9 Forecast Approach ............................................................................................................................................ 3-27 3.10 Based Aircraft Forecasts ................................................................................................................................. 3-27 Based Aircraft Forecast Methodologies ............................................................................................... 3-27 3.10.1-1 Socioeconomic: Population Variable Methodology ................................................................... 3-28 Socioeconomic: Employment Variable Methodology ....................................................................... 3-28 Socioeconomic: Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) Variable Methodology ............................... 3-29 Socioeconomic: Gross Regional Product (GRP) Variable Methodology ....................................... 3-29 Based Aircraft Forecast: Regional Market Share Methodology........................................................ 3-30 Based Aircraft Forecast: FAA Fleet Projection Methodology ......................................................... 3-31 Based Aircraft Forecast: Preferred Methodology ............................................................................... 3-31 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix ......................................................................................................................... 3-32 3.11 Aircraft Operations Forecasts........................................................................................................................ 3-33 Airport Master Plan – Phoenix Goodyear Airport i Aircraft Operations Forecast – Air Carrier Operations..................................................................... 3-34 3.11.1-1 Air Carrier Operations Forecast: MRO Tenants Estimate Methodology .............................. 3-34 3.11.1-2 Air Carrier Operations Forecast: U.S. Mainline Carrier Methodology ................................... 3-35 3.11.1-3 Air Carrier Operations Forecast: Hybrid Methodology ............................................................ 3-35 3.11.1-4 Air Carrier Operations Forecast: Preferred Methodology ........................................................ 3-36 Aircraft Operations Forecast: Military Operations ............................................................................ 3-36 Aircraft Operations Forecast: Local General Aviation Operations ................................................. 3-37 3.11.3-1 Local GA Forecast: FAA Aerospace Forecast Methodology: Air Transport Licenses ........ 3-37 3.11.3-2 Local GA Operations Forecast: Unconstrained Flight School Growth Methodology ........ 3-37 3.11.3-3 Local GA Forecast: Regional Market Share Methodology ....................................................... 3-38 3.11.3-4 Local GA Forecast: Hybrid Methodology ................................................................................... 3-39 3.11.3-5 Local GA Operations Forecast: Preferred Methodology .......................................................... 3-39 Aircraft Operations Forecast: Itinerant General Aviation Operations ........................................... 3-40 3.11.4-1 Itinerant GA Operations Forecast: Socioeconomic – Population Variable Methodology .. 3-40 3.11.4-2 Itinerant GA Operations Forecast - Socioeconomic: Employment Variable Methodology 3-41 3.11.4-3 Itinerant
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