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University of Copenhagen Hvorfor gik Danmark i krig? Kosovo og Afghanistan Mariager, Rasmus Mølgaard; Wivel, Anders Publication date: 2019 Document version Også kaldet Forlagets PDF Citation for published version (APA): Mariager, R. M., & Wivel, A. (red.) (2019). Hvorfor gik Danmark i krig? Kosovo og Afghanistan. Download date: 09. apr.. 2020 HVORFOR GIK DANMARK I KRIG? Kosovo og Afghanistan Kosovo og Afghanistan 2 Redigeret af Rasmus Mariager og Anders Wivel Hvorfor gik Danmark i krig? Kosovo og Afghanistan Bind 2 Rasmus Mariager og Anders Wivel (red.) Forord Dette bind er skrevet af Mikkel Runge Olesen samt Sanne Aagaard Jensen og Jakob Linnet Schmidt. Olesen har skrevet fremstillingen ”Pest eller kolera. En analyse af beslutningsprocessen bag det danske militære engagement i Koso- vo 1998-1999”. Jensen og Schmidt har skrevet ”Med hele vejen. En analyse af beslutningsprocessen bag det danske militære engage- ment i Afghanistan i 2001”. Forskerne har haft uhindret adgang til relevant kildemateriale beroende i blandt andet Udenrigsministeriets, Statsministeriets, Forsvarsministeriets og Værnsfælles Forsvarskommandos arkiver. Desuden har forskerne indsamlet og anvendt et omfattende kil- demateriale af ikke-statslig proveniens, herunder har forskerne anvendt materiale fra privatarkiver og foretaget interviews med politikere og embedsmænd. For en oversigt over fremstillingernes materialegrundlag henvises til de enkelte analyser. Undersøgelserne udgør en del af grundlaget for udredningen Hvor- for gik Danmark i krig? Rasmus Mariager Anders Wivel Forskningsleder Viceforskningsleder 3 Indhold Forord 3 Pest eller kolera. En analyse af beslutningsprocessen bag det danske militære engagement i Kosovo i 1998-1999 7 Mikkel Runge Olesen Med hele vejen. En analyse af beslutningsprocessen bag det danske militære engagement i Afghanistan i 2001 285 Sanne Aagaard Jensen og Jakob Linnet Schmidt 5 Pest eller kolera EN ANALYSE AF BESLUTNINGSPROCES- SEN BAG DET DANSKE MILITÆRE ENGA- GEMENT I KOSOVO I 1998-1999 MIKKEL RUNGE OLESEN Indhold Akronymer og forkortelser 12 Kort over Forbundsrepublikken Jugoslavien (FRY) i 1998-1999 14 1. Indledning 15 Kildematerialet 20 Interviews 23 De mest centrale udvalg under Kosovokrisen og den danske beslutningsproces 24 Forskningsoversigt 28 2. Baggrund: Balkan, Europas krudttønde 45 Albanere og serbere i Kosovo: Et kort historisk rids 45 Balkankrigene 1991-1995 og Vesten 50 Danmark på Balkan 55 3. Foråret 1998: I sanktionernes tegn 59 Det internationale samfund reagerer på Drenica- offensiven 60 Den danske stilling: En hardliner i sanktionspolitikken 63 Delkonklusion 70 4. Sommeren 1998: Militær intervention med FN-mandat? 71 Stabilisering af Makedonien (FYROM) og Albanien 71 Miloševićs junioffensiv 72 Milošević i offensiven igen 80 Delkonklusion 90 9 5. Efteråret 1998: Militær intervention uden FN-mandat 91 Processen i NATO frem mod Holbrooke-Milošević-aftalen af 13. oktober 1998 94 Slut-september start-oktober: Hvornår fanger bordet? 109 Pest eller kolera: Det danske dilemma i Kosovo 115 Partiernes holdning 139 Delkonklusion 147 6. Vinteren 1998-1999: De sidste forhandlingsforsøg 151 Den internationale udvikling 152 Den danske stilling: En loyal NATO-støtte – men uden den store iver 166 Delkonklusion 175 7. Foråret 1999: NATO’s luftoperationer imod serberne 177 Operation Allied Force som set fra Bruxelles – og fra Washington 177 Danmark og det militære engagement i Kosovo 180 Operation Allied Force og NATO’s 50 års jubilæum 194 Delkonklusion 199 8. Forsommeren 1999: Vejen til KFOR 201 Den internationale diplomatiske udvikling efter Washingtontopmødet 201 Danske landtropper i Kosovo uden parternes accept og uden klart FN-mandat 212 Det danske bidrag til KFOR med FN-mandat og med parternes accept 220 Partiernes holdning til dansk deltagelse i KFOR 232 Delkonklusion 240 Konklusion 243 Rådføring med Det Udenrigspolitiske Nævn og med Folketinget 243 Det officielle og det uofficielle grundlag for de danske Kosovobeslutninger 245 Fremstilingen om Kosovo og de tværgående temaer i Danmarks militære interventioner 249 10 APPENDIKS 255 Opsamling på endnu uafklarede spørgsmål 257 Kosovobeslutningerne i fodnotepolitikkens skygge? 257 Terror: Var der en direkte trussel imod Danmark? 259 Jura: Er Danmark i krig? 263 Opsummering 268 Kilder og litteratur 269 Statslige arkiver 269 Private og ikke-statslige arkiver 269 Interviews 269 Publiceret kildemateriale 269 Aviser og nyhedsbureauer 273 Litteraturliste 273 11 Akronymer og forkortelser ABA Arbejderbevægelsens Bibliotek og Arkiv (Arbej- dermuseet) ACTREQ Activation Request (NATO-procedure) ACTWARN Activation Warning (NATO-procedure) ACTORD Activation Order (NATO-procedure) AFOR Albanian Force (NATO-ledet multinational styrke) CD Centrum-Demokraterne DANATO Danmarks faste politiske repræsentation i NATO DIB Den Danske Internationale Brigade EU Den Europæiske Union FE Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste FKO Forsvarskommandoen FMN Forsvarsministeriet FN Forenede Nationer FRY Forbundsrepublikken Jugoslavien FTK Flyvertaktisk Kommando G8 Group of Eight (Canada, Frankrig, Tyskland, Itali- en, Japan, Rusland, Storbritannien og USA) HOK Hærens Operative Kommando ICTY Det Internationale Krigsforbrydertribunal for det tidligere Jugoslavien JOC The joint operations center (Afdeling i NATO) K-udvalget Koordinationsudvalget KVM Kosovo Verification Mission NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Den Nordat- lantiske Traktatorganisation) NMR Den Nationale Militære Repræsentant i SHAPE 12 OSCE Organisation for Security and Cooperation i Euro- pe (Organisationen for Sikkerhed og Samarbejde i Europa) RUU Regeringens Udenrigspolitiske Udvalg SACEUR Supreme Allied Commander Europe (NATO’s øverst befalende for de allierede styrker i Europa) SHAPE Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (NATO’s øverste hovedkvarter for de allierede styrker i Europa) SOK Søværnets Operative Kommando SOR Statement of Requirements (NATO-procedure) STM Statsministeriet UCK Kosovos Befrielseshær UM Udenrigsministeriet UNPROFOR United Nations Protection Force USU Det Udenrigs- og Sikkerhedspolitiske Embeds- mandsudvalg VFK Værnsfælles Forsvarskommando WEU Western European Union (Den Vesteuropæiske Union) 13 Kort over Forbundsrepublikken Jugoslavien (FRY) i 1998-1999 14 KAPITEL 1 Indledning1 Følgende fremstilling om baggrunden for de danske beslutninger i 1998-1999 om at engagere landet militært i Kosovo er et bidrag til udredningen om det historiske forløb, der ledte frem til opera- tionerne i Kosovo, Afghanistan og Irak i perioden 1998 til 2003. Det fremgår af udredningens kommissorium, at udredningen skal ”kortlægge baggrunden for de politiske beslutninger om dansk deltagelse og sikre en retvisende beskrivelse og læring for efter- tiden.”2 Udredningen, lyder det i kommissoriet, skal desuden be- skrive og analysere: ”Hvilke oplysninger om bl.a. forholdene i Koso- vo, Irak og Afghanistan beslutningerne om dansk deltagelse i de militære styrkebidrag byggede på, samt hvordan de pågældende oplysninger blev 1 En stor tak til Rasmus Mariager for bistand med gennemgang af Hans Hækkerup arkiv, PET’s arkiv og partiernes arkiver, og til Jakob Linnet Schmidt for bistand med gennemgan- gen af dele af Forsvarsministeriets arkiv. Endvidere ligeledes stor tak til Clara Lyngholm Mortensen og Jakob Linnet Schmidt for utrættelig hjælp med formalia i forbindelse med arbejdet med fremstillingen. Hertil tak til Per Carlsen, Sanne Aagaard Jensen, Rasmus Ma- riager, Clara Lyngholm Mortensen, Jakob Linnet Schmidt, Regin Schmidt, Jens Ringsmose, Sten Rynning og Anders Wivel for kommentarer på tidligere udkast, tak til interviewperso- nerne for deres medvirken, og til personalet hos de involverede myndigheder for assistance vedrørende kilderne. Endelig et stort tak til Luba Freja Michaelsson og Marie Katarina Runge Olesen for fantastisk hjemlig støtte på trods af lange dage på kontoret. Arbejdet havde ikke været muligt uden. 2 Justitsministeriet 2016, ”Aftale om en uvildig udredning af det historiske forløb i for- bindelse med Danmarks militære engagement i Kosovo, Irak og Afghanistan”, 25. maj 2016. 15 inddraget i de politiske overvejelser om dansk deltagelse.”3 Det fremgår ligeledes af udredningens kommissorium, at udred- ningen specifikt med hensyn til Kosovo skal behandle baggrunden for: ”Beslutningerne om et dansk militært engagement i Kosovo, som Folketinget meddelte samtykke til med vedtagelsen den 8. oktober 1998 af beslutningsforslag nr. B 4 om et dansk militært bidrag til en NATO-indsats på det vestlige Balkan og vedtagelsen den 17. juni 1999 af beslutningsforslag nr. B 148 om dansk deltagelse i en international styrke i Kosovo.”4 Denne fremstilling om det danske militære engagement i Kosovo afdækker derfor den politiske beslutningsproces, der lå til grund for de danske Kosovobeslutninger. Som det fremgår af opdraget er opgaven i forhold til Kosovo ikke centreret omkring en enkelt beslutning, som i de to andre beslutninger om danske styrkebidrag til operationer i Afghanistan og Irak, men to separate Folketingsbeslutninger (henholdsvis B 148 og B 4) – hvor B 148 dog ligger i klar forlængelse af B 4. Hertil kommer, at det i B 4 af 8. oktober 1998 hedder: ”Regeringen vil, før kommando over de danske enheder overgives til NATO, rådføre sig med Det Udenrigspolitiske Nævn.”5 Dette skete i første omgang den 13. oktober 1998.6 Som følge af Holbrooke-Milošević-aftalen den 13. oktober 1998 udsattes konflikten imidlertid, for at blusse 3 Justitsministeriet 2016, ”Aftale om en uvildig udredning af det historiske forløb i for- bindelse med Danmarks militære engagement
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