Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge Vol. 10(1), January 2011, pp. 114-124 Presage Biology: Lessons from nature in weather forecasting Sandeep Acharya *Department of Botany, Tripura (Central) University, Suryamaninagar 799 130, West Tripura E-mail: [email protected] Received 01.10.2010; revised 05.01.2011 The method used by local and indigenous peoples for predicting rainfall and other weather conditions solely on the basis of bio-indicators – the phenology of plants and behavior of animals – is coined as a new term: Presage Biology . Some of these activities of floral and faunal diversity are described in their application to predict oncoming rain, based a literature review as well as personal observations of present author as well as other reference sources pertaining to India and different parts of the world. Keywords : Plant phenology, Animal behaviour, Weather prediction, Forecasting rain IPC Int. Cl. 8: A01C5/00, E04H, G01W Ethnic tribes and other local people, especially weather conditions 5. Farmers often use such farmers, fishers and hunters are very astute weather indicator plants and animals in planning for their watchers and are quick to recognize weather cropping activities, especially when other indicators conditions and whether or not they are favorable to are not evident, for example due to a dry spell 5. their production systems 1,2 . Local forecasting often There is a tendency for western-educated combines empirical observations and weather individuals to dismiss such traditional weather lore predictions through the phenological patterns of as simply a set of beliefs designed to explain the plants and the behaviour of birds and other animals 2. steries of nature that people could not explain in any The production and application of local forecasts are other way. Despite the presence of modern deeply localized, derived from an intimate interaction technology to predict weather conditions over the with a micro environment whose rhythms are next day or month in a specific location, folk intertwined with the cycles of seasonal changes. The weather lore has remained an important form of vulnerability caused by vagaries of the weather local weather forecasting, and can serve to creates a knowledge base among farmers in the form supplement public meteorological information and of Indigenous Technical Knowledge (ITK) that helps weather prediction 5. People have been attempting to people to overcome uncertainty and prepare for predict the weather for a very long time and have used possible adverse or favorable events 2. Local indicators a number of different methods, some of which have and local knowledge systems cannot be replaced with proven very effective and successful. There is an scientific knowledge, because they are holistic and urgent need to authenticate the various traditional specific to local situations, providing farmers and methods of weather prediction, especially rainfall others with the ability to make decisions and prepare forecasting, and ways to predict other natural weather for the coming agricultural year 2,3 . Mechanisms for phenomena such as floods, cyclones, etc. 6 integrating both traditional and scientific weather As very few scientific studies have ever been forecast systems would reduce uncertainties and conducted in ancient Astro-science and almost all that improve farm management, as well as provide a basis have been undertaken have reported encouraging and for integrating scientific forecasts into existing positive outputs, there seems to have enormous scope decision processes of farmers 4. for studying ancient sciences in greater depth. For the traditional weather forecasters, the Unfortunately, with the advent of scientific phenology of certain plants and behaviors of certain technologies over the past century or so, ancient animals is a reliable indicator of a wet or dry year, knowledge which is holistic and multidimensional in or for the onset of the rainy season or adverse nature, has often been sidelined. The most important ACHARYA: PRESAGE BIOLOGY FROM NATURE IN WEATHER FORECASTING 115 aspect regarding our ancient scriptures is that the the unusual behavior of certain animals as outlined weather of the upcoming year(s) can be predicted below (Tables 2-4). Traditional indicators of an with relatively high accuracy 6. More accurate and upcoming rain include: unusual chirping and reliable weather forecasts would be obtain through a bathing with sand of birds, native frogs croaking synthesis of different approaches, both ancient and near swampy areas and hiding their egg masses, modern 6. The modern meteorologist should take dragon-flies flying low, female native crabs advantage of the astrological lore available in ancient migrating from rivers to brackish water, spider books and from traditional knowledge systems and spinning shorter and producing thicker webs, wasps combine it with their studies, so that more reliable hiding their honeycomb, etc. (Tables 2-4)5,6,18,20 . In forecasts could be offered for the benefit of the English literature, there is a well-known proverb people 6. related to the licking nature of the cat. This is explained as during fair weather, when the relative Plant indicators humidity is low, electrostatic charges (static Plants and certain fungi can accurately forecast the electricity) can build up on a cat as it touches other certainty of wet and dry weather. In western 11-14 objects . Cat hair loses electrons easily, so cats countries, some fascinating facts were recorded for 15 become positively charged . When a cat licks itself, dandelions ( Taraxacum officinale ), wild indigo the moisture makes its fur more conductive so the (Baptisia australis (L.) R. Br.), clovers ( Trifolium charge can “leak” off the cat. In fair weather during repens ) and tulips ( Tulipa gesneriana ), all of which high pressure, dry air sinks from above. Relative fold their petals prior to the rain 7,8 . Pleorotus humidity is low and cat hair becomes a better ostreatus , a type of edible mushroom (fungus) insulator. Many cats don’t like to be petted during the growing on stumps and tree trunks, expands prior to a cold winter season when the humidity is low because rain and closes in dry weather 7,8 . Mushrooms abound sufficient charge builds up to cause small sparks, when the weather is moist as do mosses and 15 which irritate them . In contrast to this, during the seaweeds 7,8 . In fact, seaweeds exposed on the rocks at onset of heavy rain, crickets produce shrill infrasonic low tide seem to swell and rejuvenate in the high sounds. These kinds of sounds produced before onset humidity preceding wet weather 8.Traditional of heavy rain is a type of alarm because storms and indicators of an upcoming rain include: ripening thunder generates sound waves at those frequencies as and early rotting of fruits, unusual flowering of well as it is also the matter of changes in barometric plants, increased length of inflorescence, etc. (Table 16 and hydrostatic pressure . Normally, these pressures 1). Among of the most reliable of all natural weather fluctuate slightly. Animals are highly tuned in to any indicators are pine cones ( Pinus sp) 9. In dry weather, changes beyond those natural fluctuations, which can pine cones open out as the scales shrivel up and stand 16 signal big changes in the weather . These variations out stiffly. When it is damp, they absorb moisture and can trigger an animal's survival mechanism. The as the scales become flexible again, the cone returns 9 animals' instinctive reaction is to seek shelter in the to its normal shape . The petals of the morning glory 16 face of potentially violent weather . For example, (Ipomoea purpurea ) act in a similar way – with wide abnormal conditions like storms such as Kal- open blooms indicating fine weather and closed petals Boishakhi (local storm in Bay of Bengal during predicting rain and bad weather 9. This opening and summer) and hurricanes cause large decreases in air closing also occurs with the flat-leaved vanilla 16 pressure and water pressure . Animals exposed and (Naravelia zeylanica )9. In coastal areas, seaweed is accustomed to certain patterns can quickly sense these often used as a natural weather forecaster 9. Brown sea changes. Researchers observed this type of behavior algal weed, Kelp , for example, when exposed during among a group of sharks as they tracked the sharks' low tide, shrivels and feels dry in fine weather, but 9 movements during tropical storm Gabrielle and swells and becomes damp if rain is in the air . The 16 Hurricane Charlie . After the barometric pressure flowers of scarlet pimpernel ( Anagallis arvensis ) dropped just a few millibars - an occurrence that “behave” according to weather conditions 9. causes a similar change in hydrostatic pressure - Animal indicators several sharks swam to deeper waters, where there In traditional weather forecasting, the onset of the was more protection from the storm 16 . Birds and bees rainy season and upcoming rain is also indicated by also appear to sense this drop in barometric pressure 116 INDIAN J TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE, VOL 10, No. 1, JANUARY 2011 Table 1 ―Phenology of plants for prediction of weather conditions Natural indicator Plant Predicted by tribe Region/source Types of forecast Ripening and early rotting of Abroma angusta (L.)L. Halam Dry field and basin B fruits (Fam. Sterculiaceae) Early unusual flowering of Abutilon indicum (L.) Sweet Jamatia Basin area B plants (Fam. Malvaceae) Increased length of Acrocephalus verbenaefolius Watt Reang Edge of paddy field B inflorescence ex Mukerjee (Fam. Lamiaceae) Drooping down of petals Cassia tora L. (Fam. Tripuri Marshy area C Caesulpinaceae) Increased length of internodes Cassia fistula L. (Fam. Lusai Marshy area B Caesulpinaceae) Increased length of corolla tube Costus speciosus (Koenig) Smith Kuki Upper dry land and Tilla C (Fam. Costaceae) (Table land like platue) Increased length of leaves Ceratopteris thalictroides (L.) Noatia Marshy area B Brongn. (Fam. Parkeriaceae) Profuse yellowing of leaves Croton oblongifolius Roxb.