Document of FILE COPY The World Bank wTTsI) FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY R ?- 2 £:f ;6 Public Disclosure Authorized
Report No. P-2170-3GT
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION
OF THE
PRESIDENT
TO THE
Public Disclosure Authorized EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
ON A
PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT
TO THE
ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT
FOR A
WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized
November 21, 1977 Public Disclosure Authorized
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Official Rate
1 Egyptian Pound (LE) US$2.56 or SDR 2.118
1 US Dollar LE 0.391
Parallel Market Rate
Until February 1976:
1 Egyptian Pound (LE) US$1.70
1 US Dollar LE 0.59
From February to May 1976:
1 Egyptian Pound (LE) US$1.56
1 US Dollar LE 0.64
From May 21, 1976:
1 Egyptian Pound (LE) US$1.47
1 US Dollar LE 0.68
From December 1, 1976:
1 Egyptian Pound (LE) US$1.43
1 US Dollar LE 0.70
ABBREVIATIONS
ACR Advisory Committee for-Reconstruction AWA Alexandria Water General Authority GODE Gulf Organization for the Development of Egypt GOPW General Organization for Potable Water GOSSD General Authority for Sewerage and Sanitary Drainage MOHAR Ministry of Housing and Reconstruction M< Medium and Long Term UNDP United Nations Development Program
FISCAL' YEAR
January 1 - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT
WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT
Credit and Pro1ect Summary
Borrower: Arab Republic of Egypt
Amount: $2.0 million
Terms: Repayable in 10 years, including 2 years of grace, through semi-annual installments at a service charge of 3/4 of I percent per annum. The credit would be refunded under any later loan or credit the Bank/IDA might make for the water supply project itself.
Pro1ect Description: The project would finance the foreign costs of a feasibil- ity study and related technical assistance to help (i) identify and prepare a regional water supply project, (ii) define a suitable regional grouping for water supply ser- vices in the territory served by the General Organization for Potable Water (GOPW), and (iii) develop appropriate management, organization and financial structures for re- gional water supply authorities which would operate under the direction of GOPW.
Estimated Costs: U-S$ million Local Foreizn Total
Technical and Managtement Personnel
Project Manager - .120 .120 Engineers and Technicians .152 .962 1.114 Management Team - .500 .500
Other Supply and Personnel
Administrative and Clerical Support, .077 .010 .087 Travel .028 .122 .150
Sub-total .257 1.714 1.971
Physical Contingencies .026 .172 .198 Price Contingencies .017 .114 .131
Total .300 2.000 2.300
This document has raetrictod distribution oad may be wed by recipients only in the performance | of their omcial duties. Its contents may not otherwbo be disclosed without World Dank authorization. Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total ------(US$ '000)------
IDA - 2.0 2.0 Government .3 - .3
Total .3 2.0 2.3
Estimated Disbursements: IDA FY 78 79 -- (US$ '000)--
Annual .2 1.8 Cumulative .2 2.0
Rate of Return: Not applicable
Appraisal Report: None.
Consultants: 264 man-months of technical and professional personnel, including the project manager, engineers and technicians will be required. The average cost of consulting ser- vices, excluding contingencies, is estimated at $6,600 per man-month. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT FOR A WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT
1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to the Arab Republic of Egypt, for the equivalent of $2.0 million to finance the foreign exchange cost of a Water Supply Engineering and Technical Assistance Project. In accordance with the normal procedures for credits of this type, the credit would have a term of 10 years with two years of grace; it would subsequently be refinanced under any later loan or credit that the Bank Group might make for a water supply project itself.
PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/
2. An Economic Report on the Arab Republic of Egypt (No. 870a-EGT), dated January 5, 1976, has been distributed to the Executive Directors. An updating economic report dated March 22, 1977 was distributed to the Executive Directors on June 8, 1977. A basic economic mission visited Egypt in May/June 1976 and its report is under preparation. Updating missions visited Egypt in October 1976, January 1977 and July 1977; the findings of these missions are incorporated in this report. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I.
Background
3. From 1960 to 1966 Egypt experienced rapid growth (around 6 percent a year in real terms) under fairly rigid centralized planning and control. This system came under increasing pressure in the second half of the decade follow- ing bad harvests and increased defense expenditures, particularly as a result of the civil war in Yemen. It deteriorated further after the war of 1967, with the loss of the Sinai oil fields, the closure of the Suez Canal, the abandonment of the Canal cities and the cost of resettling the population of about a million, and the virtual cessation of Western economic assistance. With the continuing military confrontation in the Middle East, Egypt further increased defense spending at the expense of other types of consumption and of its development program. Thus, in 1973 the economic picture was one of rigorously curtailed private consumption and inadequate investment, with a deteriorating capital stock of infrastructure and productive facilities. Real GDP growth for 1967-73 averaged only 3.5 percent a year.
1/ Part I of this report is virtually identical to Part I of the recent President's Report for the Suez Canal Expansion project, distributed to the Executive Directors on July 27, 1977. 4. The changed political situation after October 1973 laid the ground- work for a new "open-door" policy enunciated by President Sadat and approved in a national referendum in May 1974. This policy reflects a major effort to accelerate economic development through modernization and making Egypt's largely publicly owned and centrally controlled economy more market-oriented. Specifically, the policy envisaged (i) decentralization of decision-making in state-owned enterprises, (ii) liberalization of the private sector, (iii) in- centives for private foreign investment, and (iv) expanded economic coopera- tion with Arab countries. Since 1974 Egypt has initiated a number of steps which are expected to lead to a significant restructuring of the economy. In particular, steps have been taken to remove some of the restrictions on pri- vate business activities, to decentralize public enterprise management, to encourage foreign private investment, to expand foreign exchange transactions outside the official rate, and to loosen many of the restraints on banking activities.
5. Substantial inflows of external assistance from both Arab countries and Western aid donors and institutions have eased some of the problems of the Egyptian economy in making the transition. However, major structural diffi- culties remain, largely due to the continuing tension in the region and the neglect of investment. These structural difficulties are also linked to the major immediate weaknesses of the economy: the large deficit in the balance of payments, the low level of government savings, and low efficiency in public sector enterprises.
6. A new government was formed in November 1976 following elections to the People's Assembly, which were the first in which a choice of candidates representing diverse political views was offered to the voters. The Cabinet was strengthened on the economic side, and a Deputy Prime Minister for Finan- cial and Economic Affairs was appointed to coordinate economic policy-making, while President Sadat directed that economic questions should be in the fore- front of the new Cabinet's tasks. Since then two minor cabinet reshuffles have taken place.
Recent Economic Developments
7. Growth in National Income. Real growth in GDP (1975 prices) in- creased from less than 3 percent in 1973 to about 3.2 percent in 1974 and an estimated 9.8 percent in 1975 1/; the rise is attributed largely to recovery of industrial activity through the provision of greater aid-financed inputs, increased construction (particularly in the Canal Zone) and growth of trade and services. The high rate of growth for 1975 was in part due to the recovery of the Sinai oil fields (November 1975) and the reopening of the Suez Canal (June 1975). If their effect on growth of the gross domestic product is ex- cluded, the overall growth rate is estimated (by the Ministry of Planning) at 8.0 percent. Preliminary production data for 1976 indicate that the economy continued to expand. The estimated rate of growth of 6.1 percent, however, reflects increasing capacity constraints in some sectors.
1/ Ministry of Planning. -3-
8. Investment. Egypt was able to sustain a higher level of investment during 1974 and 1975, largely as a result of generous external assistance from Arab countries. Gross investment increased from $1,373 million in 1973 to $2,867 million in 1975 (in 1975 prices). This included a considerable replen- ishment of stocks, which had been drawn down in the pre-October 1973 period. During 1976, as a result of shortages of both domestic and foreign resources, investment is estimated at only about $2,300 million (1975 prices).
9. Public Finance. Because of the size of the public sector, the bulk of Egypt's domestic financial resources for development is mobilized through the state budget and public sector corporations. Considerable efforts have been made in the past to increase such resources, largely by way of taxation. In 1975 tax revenues were 22 percent of GNP. Public enterprises (although hampered by Government-imposed pricing policies) and social insurance and pension funds contributed an additional 8 percent and 5 percent of GNP, re- spectively. Total public revenues reached 38 percent of GNP, a major effort for a country of Egypt's low per capita income.
10. The high level of Government current expenditures, however, absorbed most of these resources. This was almost entirely due to the level of defense expenditures, and, more recently, to the growth of subsidies, which increased from $480 million (about 5 percent of GNP) in 1973 to $1,830 1/ million (about 15 percent of GNP) in 1975, as the Government endeavored to protect domestic consumers from the sharp increases in the import prices of foodstuffs and other essential commodities. While exact data on defense spending are not available (since a large portion is channelled through a separate account, partly foreign financed--the Emergency Fund) it appears that the defense burden on the budget eased over this period. Although it increased in absolute terms--from $1,100 million in 1973 to $1,485 million in 1976--defense spending, as a proportion of total current expenditures, declined from about 39 percent to about 28 per- cent in this period. Expenditures on economic and social services provided by the Government (education, health, etc.) and other general expenditures have risen at approximately the same rate as GNP.
11. With increased current spending, public savings declined from 4 per- cent to less than 1 percent of GNP between 1973 and 1975. However, preliminary data for 1976 show an increase in public sector savings. As of May 1, 1976, a number of subsidies were abolished, saving $140 million. A decline in inter- national prices also helped cut the actual subsidy bill for 1976 to $1,600 million.
12. Credit expansion in 1976 was 16 percent, a much smaller increase than the 42 percent registered in 1975. Credit policy was more restrictive and the credit needs of public sector companies were reduced because of a running down of inventories and a decline in import commitments. Money and quasi-money expanded by 25 percent compared with 21 percent in 1975. The official consumer price index for the urban population estimated the price
1/ Including direct subsidies and public economic sector deficits. - 4 -
index in 1975 at 10 percent, but the real rate was probably much higher. Indications are that the rate of inflation in 1976 remained high and that it will continue into 1977.
13. Balance of Payments. Despite an increase in the value of commodity exports by 56 percent between 1973 and 1975 (largely as a result of improved international prices) export earnings fell well short of imports. Indeed, the country's import bill almost tripled in this period due to increases in quanti- ties imported, and soaring food and other prices. Egypt's export receipts were influenced by declines in the physical production of certain field crops (particularly cotton) due to a shift towards more profitable cash crops (fruits, vegetables, clover) and increased domestic demand for exportable products. As a result, there was a decline in both the value and quantity of some important exports.
14. The imbalance in Egypt's trade was compensated to some extent by fast-growing earnings from services and from workers' remittances. Never- theless, the overall deficit on the trade and services account reached record levels, increasing from $654 million in 1973 to $2,480 million in 1975.
15. In 1976 the deficit was reduced significantly, although at $1,390 million it was still high. Preliminary estimates show export earnings in- creased by about 16 percent, due mainly to increased receipts from the Suez Canal and to oil exports. Imports of goods and services fell by about 13 percent, in large part due to a decision to abandon the second tranche of the 1976 investment program and to restrict imports of intermediate and capital goods. While there were some reductions in imports of consumer goods as well, the smaller deficit must have been partly purchased at the cost of Egypt's future growth.
16. The large deficits on the goods and services account in 1974-1976 were met mainly through assistance from Arab countries, Iran and the United States. The Arab support comprised grants as well as loans, and deposits in the Central Bank of Egypt. However, in 1974 the deficit could be fully met only by a substantial increase in short-term borrowing, including the use of banking facilities. Higher levels of concessional assistance enabled a re- duction in the use of these facilities in 1975, but lower aid flows in the following year led Egypt to increase the use of this type of credit by over $200 million to a total of $1.45 billion.
Development Problems and Prospects
17. Egypt's rapidly growing population, widespread poverty and dilapi- dated infrastructure require the generation of more resources for investment and a more rigorous determination of the priorities of the projects into which they are channelled. In turn, this implies: (i) greater restraint on the growth of consumption; (ii) the removal of constraints created by inadequate infrastructure (particulary ports, power, transport, and telecommunications); (iii) greater emphasis on quick-yielding projects; (iv) more emphasis on com- pleting ongoing projects than on starting new ones; (v) more active use of prices (including the price of foreign exchange) as indicators of relative - 5 -
scarcities; (vi) streamlining bureaucratic processes; (vii) a vigorous move towards increasing industry's efficiency and making it more export-oriented and employment-generating (which would involve using existing industrial capacity more fully, paying more attention to considerations of quality, and encouraging small-scale industry); and (viii) a strengthened program to curb the growth of population and the articulation of urban and rural strategies which would decentralize the growth of the urban population away from Cairo and Alexandria and create more productive opportunities in smaller towns and the rural areas. These issues will be addressed in the context of a medium- term plan the framework of which has been completed. The plan is presently under preparation.
18. Over the long-run, Egypt's economic potential is considerable. The reasons for this are in brief: (i) the country has a large domestic market, a proficient population, low wages, varied raw materials, and a key geographical location, which makes it a natural base for industries that wish to supply the growing regional market; (ii) Suez Canal revenues are estimated to continue to rise gradually until the Canal expansion program is completed in about 1980-- there is then likely to be a substantial increase in revenues; (iii) Egypt's improved prospects for oil production, which is put (by the oil companies) at one million barrels a day by 1980-82, substantially exceed domestic require- ments; (iv) considerably increased earnings from tourism--these reached an estimated $383 million in 1976; (v) the possibility of using agricultural land more intensely with greater emphasis on high-value crops; and (vi) an increasing flow of remittances ($445 million in 1976) from Egyptians working abroad. 1/
19. However, Egypt's long-term potential also hinges upon a number of factors outside its own control. The most important is a movement towards an equitable and definitive peace settlement in the Middle East. Moreover, Egypt requires the transfer of large amounts of capital from abroad; this, in turn, must be preceded by preparation of a suitable portfolio of projects to which potential investors, whether private or official, foreign or domestic, can contribute. Finally, it requires fundamental changes in economic policies and institutions. Hence, it will probably take 5-10 years to achieve a sig- nificant restructuring of the economy.
20. Recent Policy Actions. Beginning in 1976, the Government, in close consultation with the Bank and the IMF, began to undertake a series of policy actions aimed at making more effective use of foreign resources, curbing excess consumntion, and improving allocative efficiency. Thus (i) the parallel ex- change market has been successively widened (the last widening took place in March 1977), to comprise all exports except raw cotton, rice and petroleum and all imports except basic mass consumption commodities and also excluding Suez Canal revenues; (ii) the parallel market rate itself was further depreciated to about 56 percent of the official rate; (iii) the attractiveness of the
1/ Additional substantial remittances came in the form of "own-exchange" imports. -6- parallel market was increased by establishing a list of items which may be imported through it without exchange restrictions; (iv) parallel market imports were valued for customs duties at the parallel market exchange rate (a measure equivalent to an increase of about 80 percent in the tariff on applicable imports); (v) ceilings on interest rates were removed and interest rates in- creased; and (vi) the "general organizations" that exercised rigid control over public industrial enterprises were dissolved and replaced by "higher councils," which permit somewhat more initiative to the individual enterprises. The Government submitted a letter of intent to the IMF on March 4, proposing to undertake further economic reform. On April 20, 1977, the Fund approved a standby arrangement for the Government authorizing provision up to the equiv- alent of SDR 125 million (approximately $145 million) over the next 12 months. Drawings under the standby arrangement will be closely monitored and depend on Egypt remaining within a series of quarterly credit ceilings designed to limit the increase in the net domestic assets of the banking system to $1,536 million in 1977.
External Assistance
21. In 1967 the substantial amounts of Western external aid which Egypt had been receiving practically ceased, and up to 1974 service payments gen- erally exceeded disbursements. During the period 1968-1973, non-military aid from Eastern countries, estimated to have been in excess of $800 million, financed the bulk of Egypt's development.
22. Since 1973 the substantial deficits on the goods and services ac- count have been financed primarily by official Arab grants, loans and deposits with the Central Bank of Egypt. Western medium- and long-term (M<) capital assistance began to grow after October 1973. However, because of the slow disbursements inherent in the aid process, and the heavy repayments due on past loans, net M< transfers from OECD countries to Egypt were initially small. Commitments from the OECD countries have, however, led to a strong aid pipeline. There were substantial inflows in 1976 and this situation is expected to continue in 1977.
23. Among western aid donors, the US Government is currently committing about $700 million of project and commodity aid per annum (in addition to about $210 million of food assistance under US Law PL 480). Aid from the other OECD countries, especially France, Germany and Japan, has remained at the increased levels of 1974/75 (i.e., about $235 million per year). The European Community is providing increasing amounts of food aid; moreover, in January 1977 the Community signed a financial protocol with Egypt committing, over a five-year period, $70 million in grants and $119 million in concessional loans.
24. It is estimated that in 1977 Egypt needs to import goods, including capital goods in the order of $5.0 billion, in part to compensate for the severe reductions in imports in 1976. While prospects for increases in re- ceipts from exports are good, a current account deficit of approximately $1.86 billion is forecast; in addition, a reduction in short-term debt of at least $700 million (including paying off $450 million in arrears as of December 31, 1976) is desirable, amortization of M< debt will require $840 million and - 7 -
there will be a reduction in bilateral balances of about $200 million. Thus total foreign exchange requirements will be about $3.6 billion. Taking into account estimated aid disbursements of $1,470 million 1/, and estimated sup- pliers' credits, private transfers and foreign investment of $480 million Egypt would still have a foreign exchange financing gap for 1977 of approxi- mately S1,650 million. A major step towards meeting this gap was accomplished recently. In early April 1977, GODE agreed to provide additional financial support to Egypt in the amount of $1.475 billion to be made available in 1977 as a loan to the Central Bank of Egypt in stages, while Egypt carries out its declared policies to correct its balance of payments disequilibrium.
25. Consultative Group. In July 1976, Egypt requested the Bank to set up a Consultative Group comprising a number of oil-producing Arab countries, Iran, major western countries and Japan and leading international and regional institutions, including the IMF. The first meeting of the Consultative Group was held in Paris on May 11 and 12. At the meeting the major aid-giving countries and institutions discussed in detail the most important problems confronting the Egyptian economy, its prospects over the next few years, and its needs for external assistance. Delegates, while appreciating the magni- tude of the task with which the Egyptian Government was confronted recognized that the structural changes undertaken by the Government would take a number of years to complete. They felt that the Government was taking energetic steps towards accelerating growth and expressed their support of the Govern- ment's statement on its development strategy and of its efforts to direct future development within the framework of an integrated plan to be completed this year. Delegates accepted the World Bank's estimate that Egypt will re- quire disbursements of $3.6 billion in 1977, of which about $1.65 billion will have to come from new commitments. As the result of the commitment by GODE and an increase in the commodity aid portion of US assistance, it is likely that the bulk of the foreign exchange gap in 1977 will be covered. However, current projections of foreign exchange earnings and requirements indicate that in the period 1978-80, Egypt will require external assistance of about $2.8 billion annually in disbursements (compared with $3.6 billion for 1977). About $1.6-1.8 billion of disbursements will come from existing commitments leaving a gap of about $1.0 to 1.2 billion to be covered by new commitments. A large part of this aid will be required in quick-disbursing form, i.e., as cash or commodity aid.
1/ This amount includes among others disbursements from (i) a $250 million cash loan made in 1976 by the Gulf Organization for Development in Egypt (GODE), which is .a $2.0 billion fund created by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar to participate in financing Egypt's development program; (ii) a Eurodollar loan of $250 million from a consortium of American and European banks, guaranteed by the Gulf Organization; and (iii) M< project aid estimated $435 million (including $185 million from bila- teral agreement countries). It excludes the additional assistance to be provided by the Gulf Organization mentioned at the end of paragraph 24. - 8-
External Debt and Creditworthiness
26. Egypt's non-military medium- and long-term debt outstanding and dis- bursed at December 31, 1975 was estimated at $5,101 million. This was almost double the amount at end-1974 of $2,760 million. During the first nine months of 1976 the debt rose to $5,670 million. Of this, official M< loans amounted to $3,043 million (of which $731 million was in clearing currencies). Another $1,942 million was in convertible currency deposits and $685 million in sup- pliers credits. Major creditors were Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, USSR, USA, Abu Dhabi and Iran. IBRD/IDA debt comprised about 2.7 percent of the total. Debt service on medium- and long-term debt was estimated to amount to $680 million in 1975, giving a debt service ratio of 26 percent. No reliable estimates of military debt are available; Egypt is still making efforts to obtain resched- uling of service payments on such debt.
27. While the bulk of external assistance to Egypt was obtained on con- cessional terms, the continued high level of short-term indebtedness continued to be a cause of serious concern. Commercial bankers' credit facilities out- standing (including undisbursed) amounted to $2,297 million at the end of December 1976 of which $1,447 million were disbursed. The liquidity require- ments of this type of indebtedness created severe problems for Egypt in 1976 when arrears in repayments were reported. These arrears increased during the first half of 1977, but by the beginning of September had all been cleared, largely as the result of the receipt of about $1,075 million from GODE and the mobilization of additional foreign exchange resources by Egypt. Another $650 million has been committed by GODE for disbursement by the end of 1977.
28. The Government's recent policy actions (discussed in paragraph 20 above) have initiated the structural adjustments required by Egypt's economic situation and international environment. The situation however requires con- tinuing review and further action. At the Government's request, the Bank has arranged to review developments in the economy by economic missions three or four times a year.
29. If progress towards curbing the increase of both consumption expend- itures and imports is maintained and the country's export earnings potential realized, Egypt's foreign capital inflow requirements are estimated at about $2.8 billion per annum for the remainder of the decade. The required capital inflows are large--but if they are available on the terms expected, Egypt would have the debt servicing capacity to borrow the amounts envisaged, includ- ing a limited amount on harder terms. The burden of servicing M< debt as a percentage of total foreign exchange earnings is estimated at 25 percent in 1976 and is expected to decline to 19 percent in 1980. In these circumstances Egypt may be considered creditworthy for a limited amount of Bank lending in addition to the IDA assistance which Eygpt merits on the ground of its poverty and difficult balance of payments position. - 9 -
PART II.- BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN EGYPT
30. The proposed credit would be the World Bank's thirty-second lending operation in Egypt. It would bring Bank and IDA commitments made since 1970 to $969 million. Annex II contains a Summary of Bank loans and IDA credits as of October 31, 1977, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects.
31. The principal objective of the Bank/IDA lending program in Egypt is to support its development program through lending for (i) increasing utiliza- tion of available productive capacity, (ii) projects which would increase pro- duction and foreign exchange earnings or substitute for imports, particularly in the key industrial and agricultural sectors, (iii) projects aimed at rehab- ilitation and expanding infrastructure necessary to facilitate development, and (iv) selected social sectors, namely population and education. The impact of Bank/IDA participation in projects has been widened by attracting addi- tional foreign exchange required for most of these projects from other donors. Besides the technical assistance included under the Bank/IDA projects, the Bank is Executing Agency for a UNDP-financed National Power Sector Survey and for a Master Plan for Water Resource Development and Use. The Bank also extended limited technical assistance in April 1976 in the preparation of a five-year development plan.
32. The projects financed to date have been in support of the strategy outlined in the preceding paragraph. Preparation of projects for future lend- ing is following the same line. A second telecommunication, a development finance company, a second textile and an agricultural development project have been appraised, while a project for the urban sector is to be appraised soon. A pipeline of projects for possible future lending is also being developed, including additional projects in water supply and sewerage, population, educa- tion, power, rural development, transportation, agriculture (including drain- age), industry, and tourism.
33. Bank Group disbursements continue in 1977 to represent less than 10 percent of Egypt's overall capital inflow requirements. The Bank/IDA share of total external debt outstanding and disbursed was less than 1 percent at the end of 1975. For the future, the Bank/IDA share of total external debt outstanding and disbursed (excluding military debts) is estimated to reach about 11 percent in 1980, of which the Bank share would be about 7 percent. It is estimated that in 1980, debt service payments due to the Bank and IDA will represent about 3 percent of service payments due on Egypt's external debt.
34. The first IFC participation and lending, for a ceramics project, was approved by the Executive Directors in April 1976. IFC is also discuss- ing several other private sector and joint venture projects. - 10 -
PART III - WATER SUPPLY IN EGYPT
Background
35. Located at the northeastern corner of Africa, the Arab Republic of Egypt is a crossroads of three major continents. Two vast deserts constitute the major landmass in the country. Between them flows the Nile River, which carves a valley 1,500 km long. North of Cairo, the Nile divides into the Damietta and Rosetta branches, forming a delta which reaches to the Mediter- ranean. Most of Egypt's population of about 37 million which is growing at about 2.2 percent per annum, and most of the country's economic activity is concentrated around Cairo and in the Delta, an area which accounts for less than 4 percent of the country's land area of 1 million km2. Cairo, Egypt's capital, is the largest city of the country with a population of about 7.5 million. Alexandria, the second largest city, has 2.4 million inhabitants.
Water Resources
36. The predominant source of water for Egypt is the Nile River, which provides an assured supply of some 55 billion m3 of water each year. Increas- ing demands on the Nile -- principally for agriculture, which accounts for 95 percent of water use -- has called into question the continuing adequacy of this source, and accordingly the Government has requested the Bank to act as executing agency for a UNDP-financed Master Plan for Water Resources and Uses in Egypt. This study is already under way. It will provide a long-term perspective for water resource development, within the context of which local potable water needs can be addressed through specific studies such as that now proposed.
37. Potable water is drawn from two sources: either artesian wells, or directly from the Nile and irrigation canals. South of Cairo, artesian water is usually of good quality although sometimes containing iron and manganese salts. To the north of Cairo and in the Fayoun Depression, artesian water is characteristically brackish and may require filtration and blending with sweeter surface water. Artesian water in the coastal areas of the Delta is generally not suitable for human consumption, and communities depend entirely on surface water.
Institutional Arrangements
38. Provision of drinking water in Egypt is the responsibility of four public institutions. In Cairo and Alexandria, separate Authorities which commenced operations as private utility companies in the last century are now responsible to the local Governor. The Canal Zone cities of Port Said, Ismailia and Suez are served by the Suez Canal Authority. Water production and supply in all other Governorates, both urban and rural, is the respon- sibility of the General Authority for Potable Water (GOPW). Operations and maintenance of the facilities are generally carried out in townships by the local municipal authorities, and in villages and rural areas by GOPW itself. 39. The responsibility for the provision of sewerage services through- out Egypt lies with the General Authority for Sewerage and Sanitary Drainage (GOSSD). The Authority designs, constructs and maintains sewerage and drain- age facilities in all Egyptian towns, including the maintenance of the Alexandria and Cairo sewerage systems. Its technical services are made avail- able to the Governorates which operate and maintain provincial sewerage and drainage systems. In addition to Cairo, Alexandria and the Canal Zone cities, 10 cities in Lower Egypt and four cities in Upper Egypt have sewerage systems. Drainage systems without any form of treatment facilities exist in a further 12 Delta towns. All the authorities in the water supply and sewerage sector are supervised by the Ministry of Housing and Reconstruction (MOHAR). Within MOHAR, the Advisory Committee on Reconstruction (ACR) is responsible for long range planning of infrastructure.
Sector ConstraintA and Policies
40. A draft WHO/IBRD water supply and sewerage sector report which was presented to the Government in July 1977, estimates that between 10 and 20 percent of the urban population which accounts for about 45 percent of the country's total population is not adequately served with safe water; in the rural areas more than 50 percent of the population fall into this category. This implies that anywhere between 20 and 25 million inhabitants lack access to safe public water supplies. The potable water distribution systems are often old, underdesigned, and losses through leakage are substantial. Poor plumbing and waste at the public standpipes also cause heavy losses. Con- sequently only about 60 percent of total water production capacity is avail- able for consumption. Further, excessive Central Government involvement in planning and program implementation has stifled local accountability and initiative. Water tariffs are low and furthermore 65 percent of revenues generated revert to the central budget from which funds for new construction and operating costs must in turn be obtained by the authorities. To improve the situation, new effective organizations must be created, operating proce- dures changed and investments must be increased substantially.
41. The Government is fully aware of the above shortcomings and substan- tial funds have been allocated for the planning period 1976-1985: LE 545 mil- lion ($1.4 billion) for water and LE 358 million ($916 million) for sewerage. However, this is an ambitious program which can only be implemented effec- tively if there are major organizational changes and increased training. The WHO/IBRD sector report therefore recommends the decentralization of GOPW into effective regional authorities with integrated rural and urban responsibili- ties. A similar approach would later be adopted for GOSSD. The proposed project is designed to provide, among others, recommendations on how an effec- tive decentralized water supply system can be set up.
Previous Bank Lending in the Sector
42. The proposed credit would be the second Bank/IDA lending operation to the water supply sector in Egypt. In February 1977, the Executive Direc- tors approved a $56 million loan for a water supply project designed to pro- vide additional water treatment capacity to the city and the Governorate of - 12 -
Alexandria and partly also to two adjacent Governorates. The loan became effective in July after a substantial tariff increase was implemented. That project will (i) help the Alexandria Water General Authority (AWA) meet future demand and overcome a water deficit now only being met at the expense of water quality, and (ii) provide reliable water meters to help improve billing and to reduce unaccounted-for water. Improvements in operational and management techniques as a result of the proposed project should serve as a pattern for water supply operations in other parts of the country.
PART IV - THE PROJECT
43. In an effort to try to solve the problems of urban development, a number of important studies have been commissioned or completed by the Govern- ment. Among those studies, a UNDP financed Master Plan for the Suez Canal Zone cities has been completed. On the basis of this plan, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is identifying high priority water supply and sewerage components as part of a Suez Canal rehabilitation and expansion program. Similarly, USAID is supporting (i) water supply master plan studies for Cairo and Alexandria examining needs to the year 2000, (ii) master plan sewerage studies in Alexandria, and (iii) a management and tariff study for six Egyptian cities. In addition, a number of bilateral and multi- lateral agencies are providing financial assistance for other studies and specific projects in the water supply and sewerage sector. The Advisory Committee on Reconstruction (ACR), the agency in the Government responsible for long range infrastructure planning, has supervisory responsibility for all investment proposals for water and sewerage and coordination of the associated studies.
44. While the needs of water supply and sewerage in Cairo, Alexandria and the Suez Zone are already being addressed, very little has yet been done to help the rural areas and secondary provincial cities that have populations between 5,000 and 500,000 inhabitants. The Government has therefore invited the Bank/IDA to help prepare a regional water supply project. In the context of this preparatory work, proposals for institutional reforms designed to improve efficient management in the sector will be elaborated.
45. The proposed project was identified in April and appraised in September 1977. Negotiations were held in Cairo and completed on October 26, 1977. The Egyptian Government was represented by Mr. Salah Fahmy, First Undersecretary, Ministry of Housing and Reconstruction, and Mr. Samir Koraiem, Undersecretary, Ministry of Economy and Economic Cooperation and GOPW by its Chairman, Mr. Hafez. There is no separate appraisal report for this project.
Project Description and Objectives
46. The project provides technical assistance in engineering and manage- ment services, having three inter-related components with the following objec- tives: - 13 -
(a) identify and prepare a regional water supply project;
(b) define suitable regional groupings and priorities for water supply services in the territory served by GOPW; and
(c) develop appropriate management, organization and financial structures for GOPW.
First Component
47. The first component of the studies will be to identify and prepare a water supply project in the area provisionally selected by the Government as being the one where the need for improved supply is greatest. This area com- prises part of the governorates of Behera and Kafr El Sheikh (see Map). The population of these regions is about 4.0 million, mostly living in rural areas and a number of urban centers, including Damanhur, Kafr El Dawar, Kafr El Sheik and Shabrakit with a combined population of 450,000. The present water supply is inadequate and unreliable and much of the population is using water sources of doubtful quality. The system in Damanhur has recently been enlarged and upgraded, but operational difficulties are preventing full advantage being taken of the new facilities. The objective of this part of the study would be to design a scheme to provide safe and reliable supplies of potable water to all consumers in the defined region, by integrating town and rural supplies into a system (or series of systems) which would optimize the use of available sources. The studies financed under this component would produce a complete feasibility study for a proposed project, which would serve as the basis for appraisal of a later, second, Bank/IDA water supply operation in Egypt.
Second Component
48. The territory of GOPW has never been studied systematically to see how the management of public water systems sources could be optimized taking account of the distribution of the population and the resources available. This part of the study would therefore make proposals on how GOPW's opera- tions could be regionalized to best meet this objective. It is possible that the regional groupings which are technically preferable might not coincide with existing administrative subdivisions of Egypt, and the consequences of such a lack of correspondence would need to be examined and resolved. Having determined the optimal configuration of GOPW regions, this component of the studies would make an inventory of the water resources available (including wells and canals) and the existing facilities in use. It would also establish the needs of the population in relation to its present size, distribution and growth, and the present levels of service (in terms of the number of popula- tion served, access to standpipes and quality of water). Available statistics on these topics are at present scanty and unsatisfactory as a basis for policy decisions. On the basis of the data collected under this component of the study, priorities would be established for the improvement and augmentation of water supply and distribution in the regions not covered by the first com- ponent and estimates of costs would be calculated for further studies. These studies would lead to the preparation of feasibility studies for a number of the most urgent projects which would go forward with financial assistance from Bank/IDA or other foreign lenders. - 14 -
Third Component
49. The third component would provide assistance to reorganize GOPW's management, policies and procedures in accordance with the regional configura- tion discussed in para 48 above. This reorganization would involve:
(a) consideration of the appropriate status and relation to other governmental entities of GOPW and its regions;
(b) development of the organizational structure of GOPW including the definition of the functions best carried out at central and regional levels respectively, and the extent to which local government bodies and officials should be involved in the regional administration of GOPW;
(c) an examination of whether the existing managerial and technical staff is adequate to implement the proposed organization; and
(d) definition of the financial arrangements and policies appropriate to the proposed structure, including the degree of financial autonomy appropriate to the regions, the principles of tariff policy, and the proper allocation of revenues from water sales in those towns which presently operate their own systems.
These proposals would be further developed in detail for the region in which the proposed water supply project is located, the preparation of which is fi- nanced under the first component (see para. 47 above). The Government agreed to review the findings of the various studies with the Association before implementing any of its recommendations (Section 3.02 (d)(ii) of draft Devel- opment Credit Agreement).
Project Execution
50. The Ministry of Housing and Reconstruction, through ACR and GOPW, would have primary responsibility for the execution of the project which would be carried out by consultants whose qualifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment would be acceptable to the Association. Detailed draft terms of reference for the three study components have been prepared and discussed with ACR and GOPW by the appraisal mission during September 1977. This document is currently being finalized by ACR and its consultants and will be submitted to IDA for concurrence before invitations to consulting firms to submit proposals are issued. It is expected that the project could be com- pleted by December 1979. An implementation schedule is attached as Annex IV. During project execution, the consultants would submit interim and draft final reports for review by the Government and IDA before finalizing the reports and the recommendations therein.
Project Costs, Financing and Disbursement
51. The total project cost is estimated at $2.3 million, including physical and price contingencies. The proposed engineering loan would finance - 15 -
the foreign costs estimated at $2.0 million, with the local costs being pro- vided by the Government. No UNDP funds are available for this project since UNDP allocations to Egypt have been fully committed. A breakdown of total project costs is presented below.
------US$ million ------Local ForeiRn Total
Technical and Management Personnel
Project Manager - .120 .120 Engineers and Technicians .152 .962 1.114 Management Team - .500 .500
Other Supply and Personnel
Administrative and Clerical Support, .077 .010 .087 Travel .028 .122 .150
Sub-total .257 1.714 1.971
Physical Contingencies .026 .172 .198 Price Contingencies .017 .114 .131
Total .300 2.000 2.300
The estimated cost covers 264 man-months of technical personnel and 56 man- months of supporting administrative and. clerical local personnel. The average cost of consulting services for technical personnel excluding contingencies would amount to $6,600 per man-month. Disbursements would be made against 100 percent of foreign expenditures for contracts awarded to consultants. The credit would be refinanced under any later loan or credit that the Bank Group might make for a water supply project itself. The estimated schedule of dis- bursements is as follows:
IDA FY 1978 1979 ---US$ '000---
Annual 0.2 1.8 Cumulative 0.2 2.0
Prolect Justification and Risk
52. The Project would make a major contribution in assisting the Govern- ment to achieve its long range objectives of strengthening and reorganizing the water supply sector both through the preparation of a priority project for possible Bank Group financing and through studies leading to the establishment of appropriate technical standards, financial policies and institutional arrangements. The studies would help provide the Government with a viable water supply policy for the rural areas and secondary cities and with data and recommendations on sector planning, organizational changes in the sector and - 16 - water quality criteria. It would also help in the preparation of further water supply projects suitable for external financing. These measures are essential to improve water quality and increase water supply to the 20 million people living outside the major cities many of whom fall into the category of urban and rural poor and whose needs have hitherto been largely ignored in sector development and budget allocations, and who thus face public health hazards. The project faces no special risks.
PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY
53. The draft Engineering Credit Agreement between the Arab Republic of Egypt and the Association, the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association, and the text of a resolution approving the proposed engineering credit, are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately.
54. Features of the Agreement of special interest are summarized in Annex III.
55. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association.
PART VI - RECOMMENDATION
56. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve this proposed credit.
Robert S. McNamara President
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Unless othuwi.e noted, data for 1960 rater to any year between 1959 end 1961, for 1970 between 1968 and 1970, end for Most Recet Egtaatei between 1973 and 1975. -. Spain's successful diversification of it. ocacesmic strtuatw, degree of induaetrailieation eLnd davelopownt of tourim makes it so appropriate oob3ectIve *country.
lorpT 1M /a 1950..55; a Including popealtinn of small agglomerationa in tho frontier districts; six /a Figures relate to pereons years and ove, *xaluding nond pomlationg 1g 1961-65; /a 19621 II IncluMin assdstant nmrmas and midwives; 4j 1960-62; 41 Urban only. 6 6 4ZO/ 19 r a Relates to 12-61 years okf age; /4 Registered, mat all practicing in the ountry. MCS RUM SM T&ms /a As p.rcentego of smpleyusnt; Ntay 1973; 1972; /d Raesltered, not all practicing in the country; /4 1971; IL 1969-71 average; 4 1976, percentage or population. PKMEEM1970 A Ae Percentage of emplyment; /b eldU.. TVM IM A z4Reludes 17 haotesm provinces; & 165-67; /4 Mtio of popsl.atioca under 15 and 65 and over and to labor force 15 years over; 4i 15 yners eNW over exldes eaN1cyed; 4I flegltered only; a Djaposaale intas; & Including aseistent nres" and midoives; & 1961-661 4& PereonO mit years and ower who tall the ceneoc taker" that thoyna roa d write.
SPD 1970 /a Naloymeot attics estimates A Registered, not mll practicing in ths country.
R7, April 25, 1977
2 Lead AreS hwo ke 1pnlto ear ,n,sma parect, - Population, divided by ocsf M.-ccinig To_tal -Total -uface area caprisieg land area ad Inland aters. neean eale gredut.acsuress, "tt.ined- or 'certifited" nuresa, and gril. - Moat recn .tised t. of agricultural are used cenporarily or Parma- ecolliary perac,ewi with tralinin t axperiewa.. aently fur cropa, p-astres * srkt t kitchan gardes or to It. fellow. PeOMuliaiu Por hoapItql bed - Pop.,1ataon divided by ntaber of hospital beds aaiable in puli ed Privata general and ap.ciali.ed hoapita1 and CNP p-c .. Pit. (UIS) - GNiP per capita estietes at currant arbat prices, ceahbilitatio centes excluds nursing has end establialacta calculated for by ss conversica machod ae World gsee Atiaa (1973-75 basis); uetodie1 and prevetie care. 1o60; 1970 end 1975 data. Percepit. supplyef calories CLof requirements) - Cusputed gral energy aqiastOf PaeuiLcoo an,d vital net food supplies available in country per cepita per day, -ttaivilable suPplies capri.s dbasetit production, eports I... enparta, and P.ooluiat- feid-year illioni A. of July first if aot -aiabla, av.r-S. hongeo it stock; net euppILsa -nlaenia feed, -A.e, of tw end-yost cactlates; itb60, 1970 ad 1975 q-atiti.a uaad data, in food procesing and Ios.s. in distribution: reqaironet. mere aatimatsd POpu.tIo Indewt-Y- Mi-yta Mrquar poplatin pr sqare ilOmtarby PAO based en phyiolegicai n-do far normal activity and health ceid- Popuatio be-denity Mi-yeaeareguae poplacin pe squre kl~cs sna avitgf.,teI tenper8turs, (100 hectorsa) of total area. body weights, age and se distributions of Population, f allmwing 10% few masta t household level. Poconlatle denity - Peratern be of eri,. loand - Computed as babve for, Pe aiasapve agOtr;loand only. rti am r dew) - Protein cotent of per .. pit. 5t spl ef fond perday;EMt aupl og food a.~defiled as abe.; require- manta for all co-tries eatabithad by USDA teonamic Reaserch services 1its1_stetisti-a provide for a otincus allowsnce ef 60 gross of Crude birthrata ear total protein par day, sad thean.sers Annual live birth. per thousand of 20 grens of animal end PUlse oldya Protein, of which 10 gras should be enimal pouato;tm-er`arifttetic averegas ening in 1960 end 1970, protein; tbeas standards are Iear than thmes and five-year -vrag andig Of 75 greme of tocal proteIn in 1975 for mat rsosot ectimsts. and 21 grome of soleal protein saen -var.a for Crude 4.atb rate the world, ProPosed by toAl per thouaand. YvaRas - AnaI deaths par thouseed of si4-yaac in the Third World Food Survey. population; ceo-year arithestic averagesaending in 1960 and 1970 and fIve- PefaiaPoenselvim da n ue PrOtele supply of food Year overage ending is 1975 for neat racent atinete. derivedfro lfauet antl and pussi rspr day. matality roac f/thou) - Annual deathe of infants under one year of age Deathrace .Ithou)aRea pe hosn b1vircb-. 1-4 - Annua deaths per tho.usad in age group 1-4 year,~ to cildren in thia see group; .usgested as an indicator of LifeseetZn, t birthfore) - Average number of years of lift romminig at malnutrition. birtch; usually five-year ever.gea ending in 1960, 1970 end 1975 for develop- ing Wcuties. Rducation Croas reor-ductionrace - Average lotebr of live d-ughters s 111il bear Adluated rellant - in her nornal reproductive re,tiO pri-sy school - RErolloemt Of all ag0a as par- period if she enpri.aces preeont ege-apeific atg ofp4ryobl-asa Population; includs children fertility r.t.s; usually five-yar averages ending aged 6-11 years in 1960, 1970 end 1973 bet adjusted far different lengtha of primary educati_n; for countries with for dave:Lopg counria.. universaleducAtion, Pouap.,cb enrollmant m ay sexd 1001 since sas pupls. are bel,ow grat, race C%l - total - Campemndannual aro,eth race of aid-year or shor h.e official achol Sg.. Pop11tai"'o for1950-60, 1960-70 and 1970-75. Aduted serolesotratio IPoslation~arehOrt 1 rka - -cseonar ehOl - Computad as abov; Secondary Cnpuitd like growth rets of totalaua.n1eurse leatforyer of Approved primany instruction; Population.cd tif_re da itione of urban area may affect coaparability of provides genral, voctiona data amnog coatrn sof or teether training inetructiona, for pupils 12 to 17 years Of age; Ocrreapondeoca cours see generally excluded. Urbaneanlation ( of ttotl) - 1Rtie, of ctoben te total population; different easo c elapriddfiatdacodeel)-etlyear defisitione of urban ara may aff.et ongrareility of of data meg countries. seeln;a eedr eel eainli ninmaty be partially or All It::ctr fe trutr ferc - Children (0-14 ~ aecludad. years), Warbing-ago (15-64jyears), Vocatinl~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~capletely erlen fseodr)-Vctol cantioncsainclude sad etird16 yeRs sd ever) -a Percentag. of old-year popul.atin. tehnical, ndstrial1 or other progra whih Ane depsad..ty ratio operte independeotly or a 64 ceiO of poplation under IS and 65 and ovr to those d.parnsenc of secondary Inactuttiona."' of ages 15 through 6.AduLt literacYrace (7. - Literate adults (able to read sod writ.) as per- Efosnoic dseadecat ratio - RatiO of PoPulation, under 15 sod 65 and ovr to. catage of total adult population ags4 15 years and ovr. the labor force in age group of i-4 yers tally -aoescorsslanino ctaclatie. thou)- C-anti-cv onb-r of acceptor- of birch-control HousinR devices coder .u.pi... of national fanily Planning pregra Prea a ubn - sineiocstion. Average -cb,r of person pa r rem ia occupied noroinldsl sin urban areas; doesliogo talloin - ses 7 of.ustied wonen) exclude. non-pernn-t - Percentges of mar,idwm fsrcue n ncuidpra child-bere g 154 er)wo s ic-otrldvc t oi arid Ocupiedd4 llng without Ppnedw tatr (7) - Occu Pied colnvetiona1 dwellings Catin s eg group. ~as in urban and ruralareas without i-ids Or outsid. piped water facilities t --~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~aPercentage of all onoupiad dwellings. Totallabor foacts (thousand) - ftonmai-ely active person, Accts.,toelcrct (. ofal d:Illns - ConventionalI dwellings with including arned electricity .Iclviog urter aspecet ofttldwellings lo rbec and force and uomlapyd hut ecioding hsusewi-e, studeats, etc.; definitions rural vroscoln,tties-c er not cOnp.rable. areas. RuraldClig once oeetiiy() -Copuated as shov for rur1 Lablorfort to sori,,lture CX) - Agricl1tora1 labor force (in franing, forestry, dwellingsny hotig n fiabings) as percentage of total labor force. Uoneploy.d (7.oflbroce - Unemployed are Usully defined as person who. Conscoocba are able end willing to takn o JOb, cot of a Job an a given day, renind ou ai eevr erto e) All type Of receiver, for radio broadcas.ts Ofesbig ajob,Cod wok fo a secifed nninu perodact .. c..dieg one to genar.1 public uka,Zny per thousnd of population, ealudea _nliceeed rece.iver not he ccpsr.ble betweeoncountries due to different definittloa in countries and In yese whan registration of uompIey.d of radio este wa in effect, end sarce of data, e.g. , ap-oymant office tti a,aPI* data for recent years nay not be nonpa-able ---vy., -cnpuls-ry U.aployesnt isrnelIftening. sinceneat cOunttries abolished jnp-cot.g. ~~ ~ -of P'tt. J-- (bothi- c-.h -d id) PI e'Itrcare Iee ~theuPoe - Passenger cars cnprio _et_r cars ass tiag inca ditrioticf pivso-Perentge mons bot Iccas en itd) aastha eight pesna teldude abulancs, h..-.. and nilit.ry rce-ived by rich.et 57., richest 207., pooreat 207., end poorest 407. of house- hil. Mode EIactjrficij(:eh/vr percap), Ann . al eoaPtion of induttrial, tasertia1, Di.trib.tion- ftrc..ta..Of lead ofpublic-addbprivItte.ele1tricityIintkilnwkttovaer.hip adistributio of7 lan ladnrhl ercaaePo. htohrs.peracapita,,generally flo uedb rlb t1 base.d on production dat., without allowence fer loesee In grids bar.11
Health~ and ~Nuttition ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Nespin (hater Percap) - Per tpit. annalI one,onption, in kilagrws, Ponulatinear Physician - Population divided by OtAntr of pr.cticing -t-* rmdmsi rdci.pu tipt.O pit physicians qualified fmn a ndicel school at univerIty level. ANNEX I Page 3 of 4
EGYPT 8C0lIWflC ODIILOP I DAT (mounts in. illtone of tlS dollars)
Actual Eat. Projected 1973- 1975- 1973 1974 1975 1976 1980 1975 1980 1973 1975 1980 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS1/ (COnstant 1975 Prices) Average Annual Crowth RAeso As Percent of GDY Gross Do.etic Product 10,517 10,849 11,912 12,636 16,288 6.3 6.4 99 100 99 Gains from Terms of Trade (+) 57 365 .. 82 113 .. . +1 .. +1 Gross Destic Income 10,574 11,214 11,912 12,718 16,401 6.1 6.6 100 100 100
Imports(incl. no.a-factor services) -2,864 -4,052 -4,989 -3,904 -5,970 32.0 3.6 27 42 36
Exports (incl. non-factor services) 1 j950 2.230 2.198 2.512 4.2Z6 6.2 14.0 16 19 26 Resource Gap -914 -1,822 -2,791 -1,392 -1,744 75.0 -9.0 9 23 10
Consumption Expenditures 10,115 10,887 11,836 11,806 14,179 8.2 3.7 96 99 86 Investment Expenditures (incl. stocks) 1,373 2,149 2,867 2,304 3,966 44.0 6.7 13 24 24
Domestic Savings 459 327 76 912 2,222 -60.0 95.0 4 1 14
MERCHANDISE TRADE Annual Data at Current Prices As Percent of Total
Imports Capital Goods 291 480 728 550 17 17 Fuels and intermediate goods 633 1,655 2,057 1,566 38 48 Cnnsuotn Goods 740 1_340 1.544 1.349 45 35 Total Merchandise Imports (c.i.f.) 1,664 3,475 4,329 3,465 100 100
Exports Agricultural Products 423 857 522 490 42 33 Industrial Goods 580 817 1.046 1.115 58 67 Total Merchandise Exports (f.o.b.) 1,003 1,674 1,568 1,605 100 100 Travel 156 266 332 383 Suez Canal . 85 308
Merchandise Trade Indices Average 1975 - 100 Export Price Index 68 122 100 109 Import Price Index 67 95 100 105 Terms of Trade Index 101 128 100 103 Exports Volume Index 94 88 100 114
VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR As Percent of Total
Agriculture 33 34 33 31 Industry, Electricity &Construction 24 26 28 28 Services 43 40 39 41 Total 100 100 100 100
PUBLIC FINANCE 1977 Current Prices BudReted As Percent of GDP Current Receipts 3,142 3,648 4,593 5,673 7,821 30 39 Current Expenditures 2.786 3.487 5.056 5.238 6.121 26 42 Budgetary Savings 356 161 -463 435 1,700 4 -3 Public Sector Investment 1,141 1,446 2,337 2,196 3,502 11 20
US $ million CURRENT EXPENDITURES DETAILS Actual Prelin,. DETAIL ON At 1975 P and ER (AS %of Total Current Expenditures) 1973 1974 1975 1976 PUBLIC SECTOR Draft Plan
Defense 39.1 24.8 29.72/ 2 8 .34' INVES11ENT PROGRAM (1976-80) 7 of Total Subsidies 17.1 35.8 36.2 30.5 Agriculture 1,997 10 General Services 19.6 17.6 16.6 21.3 Industry and Mining 4,792 24 Economic Services 24.2 21.8 17.5 19.8 Services 3,993 20 Total Current Expenditurts 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Transport and com- muaications (Inc. Suez) 5,191 26 Other 3.993 20 Total Expenditures 19,966 100 SELECTED INDICAMORS 1973- 1975- 1975 1980 Average ICOR 2.08 3.663, Import Elasticity 3.81 0.75-
LABOR FORCE AND OUTPUT PER WORKER Total Labor Force Value Added Per Worker (Current Prices) In Millions %of Total In US Dollars %of Average 1973 1975 1973 1975 0 1973 1975 1973 1975
Agriculture 4.2 4.2 47 44.2 624 858 67 68.8 Industry 1.2 1.2 13 12.6 1,557 2,087 167 167.4 Service 4f 3.6 4.1 40 43.2 615 1,374 66 110.2 Total 9.0 9.5 100 100.0 932 1,247 100 100.0
V/ Incorporating revised GDP estimates by the Ministry of Planning December 1976. 2/ Includes reconstruction expenditures. 3/ Import elasticity for 1975-80 low because of decrease in imports experienced in 1976. For the period 1977-80, import elasticity is estimated at 1.00. 4/ Includes distribution, electricity and construction sectors. ANNEX I EGYPT Page 4 of 4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS. EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE AND DEBT (amounts in millions of US dollars at current prices)
Actual Est. 1973 1974 1975 1976
SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Export of Goods, f.o.b. 1,003 1,674 1,568 1,605 Import of Goods, c.i.f.l/ -1,664 -3,45 -3,465 Trade Balance -661 -1,801 -2,761 -1,860 Service Receiptsl/ 421 710 1,082 1,480 Service Payments -414 -541 -801 -1,010 Service Balance 7 169 281 470
A. Deficit on Goods and Services -654 -1,632 -2,480 -1,390
B. Amortization of LMT Debt -407 -631 -568 -545
(of which suppliers' credits) (277) (-285) (-280) (-300)
C. Net Reduction in Short-term Debt -- -- -264 --
D. Reductions of Balances on Bilateral Accounts -113 -28 -241 -200 E. Foreign Exchange Requirements -1,174 -2,291 -3553 -2,135
F, Supply of Funds 1,290 2,119 3,573 2,135
Private unrequited transfers 6 42 91 65 Official grants 725 1,264 988 635 Gulf Organization for Development in Egypt ------Other MIT loans 170 199 583 665 Suppliers' credits 160 273 363 420 MLT deposits/loans CBE -- 5 1,580 470 Foreign investment -- 7 20 50 Net increase in short-term commercial bank credits 352 585 -- 235 Other monetary movements, net 2/ -123 -256 -52 -405
G. Changes in Reserves 116 172 20 n.a.
GRANT AND LOAN COMMITMENTS Official Grants and Grant-like 725 1,264 988 635
Public MLT Loans IBRD -- 85 77 157 IDA 75 55 55 40 Other Multilateral -- 6 100 100 Governments 290 595 2,507 1,375 Suppliers/Commercial 160 273 363 420 Total Public MLT Loans 525 1,014 3,102 2,092
DEBT AND DEBT SERVICE, MLT (Public Debt Outstanding & Disbursed)
Interest on Public Debt 79 95 111 231 Repayments on Public Debt 407 631 569 545 Total Public Debt Service 486 726 680 776
Burden on Exchange Earnings (X) Public Debt Service 34.1 30.5 25.7 25.2
EXTERNAL DEBT Actual Debt Outstanding on September 30, 1976 Disbursed Only Percent World Bank/IDA 154.5 2.7 Governments and Arab Dev. Funds 4,604.4 81.2 Suppliers 685.9 12.1 Other MLT 226.0 4.0 Total Public MLT Debt 5,670.3 100.0
Short-term Debt (disb. only) 1,380.7
Excludes "Own-exchange" imports=/ 2/ Includes errors and omissions ANNEX II Page 1 of 7
THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN EGYPT
A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS
(As of October 31, 1977)
Amount in million US dollars Loan/Credit Approved Less cancellations Numbers FY Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed
Ln 243-UAR 60' SCA Suez Canal Expansion 56.5 -- -- Cr 181-UAR 70 UAR Nile Delta Drainage -- 26.0 6.9 Cr 284-UAR 72 ARE Railways -- 30.0 1.9 Cr S-13-UAR1/ 73 ARE Cotton Ginning Engineering -- 0.2 -- Cr 393-UAR 73 ARE Upper Egypt Drainage -- 36.0 18.4
Cr 412-UAR 73 ARE Development Industrial Bank 2/ -- 15.0 1.7 Cr 423-UAR 74 ARE Cotton Ginning Rehabilitation -- 18.5 5.5 Cr 437-UAR 74 ARE Population -- 5.0 3.0 Cr S-15-UARI/ 74 ARE Talkha Engineering -- 0.4 -- Cr 484-UAR 74 ARE Talkha Fertilizer -- 20.0 6.1
Cr 524-EGT 75 ARE Ag/Ind Imports -- 35.0 1.9 Ln 1062-EGT 75 ARE Ag/Ind Imports 35.0 -- 1.4 Ln 1064-EGT 75 SCA Suez Canal Rehabilitation 50.0 -- 41.7 Ln 1085-EGT 75 ARE Tourah Cement 40.0 -- 11.1 Ln 1098-EGT 75 ER Railways II 37.0 -- 19.2
Cr 548-EGT 75 ARE Telecommunications -- 30.0 23.2 Cr 576-EGT 76 ARE DIB II 2/ -- 25.0 18.0 Ln 1239-EGT 76 APA Alexandria Port 45.0 -- 44.9 Ln 1276-EGT 47 76 ARE Fruit and Vegetable Dev. 50.0 -- 49.8
Cr 637-EGT 76 ARE Upper Egypt Drainage II -- 40.0 36.3 Ln 1285-EGT 76 ARE Upper Egypt Drainage II 10.0 -- 10.0 Ln 1292-EGT 76 ARE Textile Rehabilitation 52.0 -- 51.8 Ln 1369-EGT 77 AWA Alexandria Water Supply 56.0 __ 56.0 Cr 681-EGT 77 ARE Education -- 25.0 25.0
*Cr 719-EGT 5/ 77 ARE Nile Delta Drainage II -- 27.0 27.0 Ln 1339-EGT5/ 77 ARE Nile Delta Drainage II 27.0 -- 27.0 Ln 1440-EGT4/5/ 77 ARE Nile Delta Drainage II 12.0 -- 12.0 Ln 1453-EGT5/ 77 EEA Regional Electrification 48.0 -- 48.0 Ln 1456-EGT 6/ 77 ARE Industrial Imports 70.0 -- 70.0 Cr S-0O5-EGT 5/ 77 ARE Iron Ore Beneficiation and 2.5 __ 2.5 Engineering Ln 1482-ECT 5/ 78 SCA Suez Canal Expansion 100.0 -- 100.0
Totals 691.0 333.1 Of which has been repaid 56,5 0.6 Total now outstanding 634.5 332.5 Amount sold 7.5 Of which has been repaid 6,0 1.5 Total now held by Bank and IDA 5/ 33,0 332.5 720.3
B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (amount in US$ million) Year Obligor Type of Business Loan Equity Total
1976 Arab Ceramic Company Ceramic Industry 4.25 .75 5.0 (plus .635 contingency (5.635) commitment) 1/ Refinanced under Credit 423-UAR 2/ Formerly Bank of Alexandria 't Refinanced under Credit 484-UAR 4/ Third Window Loan 5/ Not yet effective 6/ Declared effective November 7, 1977 ANNEX II Page 2 of 7
C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/
Cr. No. 181-UAR - Nile Delta Drainage I Project; US$26 million Credit of April 17, 1970; Effective Date: December 22, 1970; Closing Date: September 30, 1978
At present, about 65 percent of the project is completed; full com- pletion is expected by end-1979, i.e., 2-1/2 years behind schedule. However, procurement is proceeding satisfactorily and it is expected that the whole of the credit will have been committed by December 1977, and that disbursement will be completed by mid-1978. Due to inflation the local cost of the project has increased by 90 percent, from $116 million to $220 million. There is no foreign exchange cost overrun. Progress in project implementation during 1976 was satisfactory and, for the first time, the project reached the established annual target. During 1977 there have been management changes in the Drainage Authority, and the project has again fallen behind schedule. Government has allocated the required local funds for the year 1977 for the implementation of the ongoing Bank/IDA financed drainage projects. It has also agreed that local funds required in the future would be included in the medium-term devel- opment plan.
Cr. No. 284-UAR - Egyptian Railway Project; US$30 million Credit of February 9, 1972; Effective Date: July 17. 1972; Closing Date: December 31, 1977.
The project generally is being implemented satisfactorily. All procurement contracts have been awarded, and the credit has been fully com- mitted. To allow the remaining balance to be utilized, the closing dates (originally, September 30, 1976 for the parts of the credit allocated to signalling and telecommunications items and December 31, 1973 for the other parts) were postponed one and five times respectively to December 31, 1977.
Cr. No. S-13-UAR - Cotton Ginning Rehabilitation Engineering Project; US$175,000 Credit of November 17, 1972; Effective Date: June 15, 1973; Closing Date: November 30, 1973.
This credit was fully disbursed and subsequently refinanced under Cr. 423 below.
1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any prob- lems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the understanding that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution. ANNEX II Page 3 of 7
Cr. No. 393-UAR - Upper Egypt Drainage I Project; US$36 million Credit of June 8, 1973; Effective Date: November 28, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1979.
At present, about 30 percent of the project is completed; full com- pletion is expected by end-1980, i.e., 6 months behind schedule. About 50 percent of the contracts for equipment have been awarded. Foreign exchange costs have risen by about 14 percent almost entirely due to price increases of chemicals for bilharzia control. The foreign cost overrun of the bilharzia control program is being financed under the Upper Egypt Drainage II project (Loan No. 1285-EGT and Credit No. 637-EGT).
Cr. No. 412-UAR - Development Industrial Bank (formerly Bank of Alexandria) Project; US$15 million Credit of June 29, 1973; Effective Date: November 29, 1973; Closing Date: March 31, 1978.
The entire amount of the credit has been committed to subprojects. As of October 31, 1977, 13.3 million had been disbursed. The transfer of responsibility for this project to the newly established Development Indus- trial Bank became effective on March 28, 1977.
Cr. No. 423-UAR - Cotton Ginning Rehabilitation ProJect; US$18.5 million Credit of July 30, 1973; Effective Date: February 15, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1978.
The scaled-down project financed by IDA is estimated to be completed in mid-1980 and the remainder of the full project financed by a loan from the Saudi Fund for Development, which became effective in July 1976, is expected to be completed by June 1981. The foreign cost of the project ($34.3 million) is now firm as all procurement has been completed, but the local component continues to escalate mainly due to steady increase in the cost of civil works. By Presidential Decree of 1977 the Project Implementation Unit was upgraded to the status of a General Authority for Rehabilitation of Ginneries which should give the management more freedom regarding financial and administrative matters.
Cr. No. 437-UAR - Population Project; US$5.0 million Credit of November 6, 1973; Effective Date: March 25, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1977.
The project had been greatly delayed by a shortage of local funds and by administrative problems. It is now being carried out with a reduced scope but substantially in accordance with a revised schedule. Eight general health centres financed under the project are to be opened and completed by the end of 1977.
Cr. No. S-15-UAR - Talkha Urea Fertilizer Engineering Project; US$400,000 Credit of November 20, 1973; Effective Date: April 24, 1974; Closing Date: March 31, 1975.
The credit was refinanced under Cr. 484 below. ANNEX II Page 4 of 7
Cr. No. 484-UAR - Talkha II Fertilizer Project; US$20 million Credit of June 24, 1974; Effective Date: January 22, 1975; Closing Date: April 1, 1979.
The project is proceeding well and mechanical completion by mid- 1978 appears feasible. Additional foreign exchange financing to cover a 32 percent cost overrun has been secured from the Arab co-lenders under the project.
Cr. No. 524-EGT and Ln. No. 1062-EGT - Agricultural and Industrial Imports Project; US$35 million Credit and US$35 million Loan of December 20, 1974; Effective Date: March 19, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1977.
The bulk of the procurement actions has been completed and dis- bursements are well advanced. One of the six surveys of industrial sub- sectors has been completed and the five others are expected to be completed by end-1977.
Ln. No. 1064-EGT - Suez Canal Rehabilitation Project; US$50 million Loan of December 20, 1974; Effective Date: April 21, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1978.
Progress to date on project implementation has been good, although the implementation of the reconstruction project proved to be much more complex than originally estimated by the appraisal team. The financial situation of the Borrower is sound; canal traffic and revenues are both higher than expected at appraisal.
Ln. No. 1085-EGT - Tourah Cement Expansion Project; US$40 million Loan of February 10, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1979.
Contracts have been awarded for all equipment packages, and dis- bursements are proceeding. More than 90 percent of equipment have been delivered on site. Slow progress in civil works causes significant delays which will result in a delay in the start-up of commercial operations by about two years. Consultants which assisted in bid evaluation are now assist- ing in supervision of project execution and improvement of the existing plant.
Ln. No. 1098-EGT - Railways II Project; US$37 million Loan of April 2, 1975; Effective Date: August 20, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1978.
Progress on physical investment items under the project is generally satisfactory. However, the Egyptian Railways (ER) experienced operational difficulties with a large number of locomotives out of service because of in- adequate maintenance largely due to lack of spare parts. Spare parts are now being delivered and new locomotives have been obtained from bilateral sources. Therefore, a gradual improvement of the traction and traffic situation is expected. Also, declining traffic and rising costs resulted in a worsening of ER's financial position. Government is considering increases in rail tariffs proposed by ER. ANNEX II Page 5 of 7
Cr. No. 548-EGT - Telecommunications Project; US$30 million Credit of May 16, 1975; Effective Date: August 14, 1975; Closing Date: September 30, 1978.
i Project works are about two years behind schedule, primarily because of initial delays in building construction. However, construction has recently accelerated and is expected to proceed satisfactorily. Contract awards for cableslhave been largely completed: Telex equipment has been obtained with financing from other sources and installation of the Cairo telex exchange is to be deferred.
Cr. No. 576-EGT - Second Development Industrial Bank (formerly Bank of Alexandria) Project; US$25 million Credit of July 30, 1975; Effective Date: February 19, 1976; Closing Date: October 31, 1979.
As of October 31, 1977, about $21.4 million had been committed under the project and $7.0 million had been disbursed. The transfer of responsi- bilitylfor this project to the newly established Development Industrial Bank became effective on March 28, 1977.
Ln. No. 1239-EGT - Alexandria Port Project; US$45 million Loan of April 19, 1976; Effective Date: August 17, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1980.
Project implementation is slower than expected. Civil engineering consultants have completed the design of the four berth extensions. Proposals from management consultants are being evaluated. Prequalification of con- tractors for dredging and construction works has started. Bids for floating cranes were opened on October 17, 1977.
Ln. No. 1276-EGT - Fruit and Vegetable Development Project; US$50 million Third Window Loan of June 11, 1976; Effective Date: December 20, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982.
Project start-up has been slower than expected. Civil engineering consultants are at work on the drainage and irrigation components of the proj- ect although the necessary counterpart staff have not always been present. The newly established Agricultural Development Lending Unit in Bank Misr is attempting, with the help of a consultant, to ensure that the various agro- industries sub-borrowers proceed with their respective investments, but there may be need for some revision in this component.
Ln. No. 1285-EGT and Cr. 637-EGT - Upper Egypt Drainage II Project; US$10 million Loan and US$40 million Credit, both of June 11, 1976. Effective Date: January 31, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1983.
Project implementation has been slower than expected following man- agement changes. ANNEX II Page 6 of 7
Ln. No. 1292-EGT - Textile Project; US$52 million Loan of September 20, 1976. Effective Date: February 20, 1977: Closing Date: June 30, 1980.
This loan was declared effective on February 16, 1977 and project implementation has commenced. The two beneficiary companies have established effective project implementation units. About 75 percent of engineering drawings have been completed and contracts with contractors have been signed. Prequalification of the equipment suppliers has been completed and tender documents are expected to be issued shortly.
Ln. No. 1369-EGT - Alexandria Water Supply Project: US$56 million Loan of March 7, 1977: Effective Date: July 6, 1977: Closing Date: June 30, 1982.
The tariff increase required under the project is now in effect and has been reflected on the water bills beginning August 1, 1977. Con- sultants for the final design of the project and the procurement of goods and services have started work. In designing the project the consultants will review and take into account the results of a USAID financed interim Water Master Plan presented in September 1977.
Cr. No. 681-EGT - Education Project; US$25 million Credit of March 7, 1977; Effective Date: August 19, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1979.
This credit was declared effective on August 19, 1977.
Cr. No. 719-EGT, Ln. No. 1439-EGT and Ln. No. 1440T-EGT - Nile Delta Drainage II Project; $27 Million Credit, $27 Million Loan and $12 Million Third Window Loan of July 15, 1977; Effective Date: January 16, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1983.
The effectiveness date of this project has been delayed from November 15, 1977, the original date, to January 16, 1978 to allow for additional time for the ratification of the legal documents.
Ln. No. 1453-EGT - Regional Electrification Project; US$48 Million Loan of July 15, 1977: Effective Date: January 16, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1981.
The effectiveness date of this project has been delayed from November 15, 1977, the original date, to January 16, 1978 to allow for additional time for the ratification of the legal documents.
Ln. No. 1456-EGT - Industrial Imports Project; US$70.0 Million Loan of July 15, 1977; Effective Date: November 15, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1979.
This loan was declared effective on November 7, 1977. ANNEX II Page 7 of 7
Ln No. 5-5 EGT - Iron Ore Engineering and Beneficiation Project; US$2.5 Million Loan of July 15, 1977. Effective Date: December 19, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1979.
The effectiveness date of this project has been postponed from October 18, 1977, the original date, to December 19, 1977 to allow additional time for the ratification of the legal document.
Ln. No. 1482-EGT - Suez Canal Expansion Project; US$100 Million Loan of September 28, 1977; Effective Date: January 26, 1977; Closing Date: December 31. 1981.
Action on effectiveness condition is underway. One dredging con- tract to be financed by the Bank has been awarded and the other is expected to be awarded soon; tender documents for equipment are being drawn up. ANNEX III
ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT
Water Supply Engineering and Technical Assistance Project
Supplementary Project Data Sheet
Section I: Timetable of Key Events
(a) Project first identified April 1977
(b) Time taken by GOPW and ACR to prepare project Four months (April to September 1977)
(c) Date of first Bank mission to consider project (Appraisal Mission) September 12, 1977
(d) Date of completion of negotiations October 26, 1977
(e) Planned date of effectiveness April 1978
Section II: Special Bank Implementation Actions
None.
Section III: Special Conditions
Government agreed to review findings of various studies with the Association before implementing any of its recommendations (para. 49). ANNEX IV Page 1 of 2
ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT
Water Supply Engineering and Technical Assistance Project
Implementation Schedule
Study Outline
The study is in three inter-related components which are to be carried out concurrently.
First is the preparation of a Feasibility Report for a project in the water supply areas of the provinces of Behera and Kafr El Sheikh which identifies needs, recommends improvements and prepares a suitable investment package in the context of the establishment of a proposed regional water supply authority.
Second is a review of water supply needs throughout the remainder of Egypt in the rural areas and secondary urban centers to ascertain needs, indicate priorities, assess investment requirements and cost proposed feasibility studies which would prepare further projects.
Third arecompletion of a comprehensive management and organization study of the General Organization for Potable Water (GOPW) and making recom- mendations on an appropriate re-structuring of the authority's operations on a regional basis. The objective would be to achieve better planning, engineering, financial and operational control.
Terms of Reference
Detailed draft terms of Reference were prepared in consultation with the MOHAR and GOPW by an IDA mission which visited Egypt in September 1977. These are currently being finalized by consultants with the Advisory Committee for Re-construction (ACR) in MOHAR.
Procurement and Implementation Schedule
Procurement will be in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines for the Use of Consultants. Expressions of interest will be sought from consul- tants on the understanding that one firm, by itself or in association with others, will be responsible for completing the entire study in a period of 12 months.
The following timetable is proposed for: ANNEX IV Page 2 of 2
Prequalification
Evaluate prequalification submission ... December 31, 1977
Recruitment
Invite proposals ...... January 30, 1978 Receive proposals ...... February 28, 1978 Complete proposal evaluation ...... April 30, 1978 Negotiations with consultant ...... May 15, 1978 Contract award and signature ...... June 15, 1978 Consultant mobilized ...... July 30, 1978
Study Implementation
First Interim Report
(a) Engineering ...... within 3 months of commencement (b) Management and Organization ...... within 4 months of commencement (c) Review period ...... 2 months
Draft Final Report
(a) Complete Study ...... within 11 months of commencement (b) Review period ...... one month
Final Report
Delivered ...... within 13 months of commencement IBRD 13192
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