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PROCESSED CHEESE MARKET: TRENDS and CONSUMPTION 25.05.2016 | Raul Lönnström, Valio Russia CEO RAUL LÖNNSTRÖM

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PROCESSED CHEESE MARKET: TRENDS and CONSUMPTION 25.05.2016 | Raul Lönnström, Valio Russia CEO RAUL LÖNNSTRÖM PROCESSED CHEESE MARKET: TRENDS AND CONSUMPTION 25.05.2016 | Raul Lönnström, Valio Russia CEO RAUL LÖNNSTRÖM • Education: M.Sc. (Chem. Eng.), executive MBA • 14 years of experience in developing the Valio’s Russian business: Valio Russia strategic developments since 2002 Establishment of Valio Center Odintsovo 2006 and start of the operations in 2009 Coordination and managing of the major developments over the last 10 years Outsourcing development: Galaktika, Polar Spring and Ehrmann KEY FACTORS OF PROCESSED CHEESE CONSUMPTION IN EUROPE CONSUMPTION OF PROCESSED CHEESE IN EU, KILOS 1 Processed cheese is one of the most sustainable and conservative categories in EU according to its consumption rate. 10 Average consumption 8 1,2 6 per year 4 2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: ZMB Zentrale Milchmarkt Berichterstattung GmbH, Credinform EU EXPORT OF PROCESSED CHEESE IN 2014 VS. 2015 2 Export of PC is more concentrated in Middle East. Till 2014 Russia was number two in the list. In 2015 with Russia leaving the list the volumes were redistributed to other countries. 35% 30% EU-EXPORT OF PROCESSED CHEESE, 2014 25% EU-EXPORT OF PROCESSED CHEESE, FIRST 20% HALF OF 2015 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: ZMB Zentrale Milchmarkt Berichterstattung GmbH R&D CHALLENGES 3 Experiments with the package and different tastes are among the ways to preserve the level of consumption. Novelties compensate conservativeness. KEY WAYS TO DEVELOP THE CATEGORY IN EU The rising trends in the European cheese market are as follows: low content of/lack of lactose, low content of/lack of gluten, and premium quality. 1. Added value for wellbeing 2. Guaranteeing the premium quality 3. Combining 4. Transparency 5. Compactness INGREDIENT FOR COOKING OR 4 READY COOKING INSPIRATION Traditional Finnish cream soup with salmon is cooked with processed cheese adding. VIOLA BY VALIO The unique Viola processed cheese recipe was created in 1934 in Finland. HISTORY OF VIOLA IN RUSSIA • 1956 – Starting export of Viola processed cheese to USSR Viola is the first imported to the USSR processed cheese. • 1980 – Valio is the official suppler of diary products for the Olympic Games in Moscow • 2006 – Valio own plant and distribution center manufacturing is started in Ershovo, Moscow region • 2009 – The first batch of Viola processed cheese is produced in Ershovo • 2014 – Project Viola in Russia started • Today Viola is a processed cheese brand with the highest consumer confidence index in Russian capitals VALIO in Russia is 100 % Finnish quality and best Russian plants, best raw materials available in Russia VALIO IN RUSSIA NOWADAYS: INVESTMENT PROJECT The first stage of investments was 2014 fulfilled in 2014. The second stage of investments ended 04/ 2016 in March, 2016. Valio logistics center and production plant in Today the total production capacity of Moscow region 10 tons the Valio factory in Ershovo is 10 thousand tons per year. 08/ 2016 The third stage will be fulfilled in August, 2016: equipment for slicing. 63 The amount of investments into the factory is 63 million million euro by now . VIOLA EXPORT- MAP OF DELIVERIES • Armenia • Azerbaijan • Belarus • Georgia • Kazakhstan • Kyrgyzstan • Moldova • Mongolia • Tajikistan • Turkmenistan • Ukraine • Uzbekistan AND WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA…? REAL INCOME SHOWED A NEGATIVE TREND IN 2015. THIS TREND REMAINS IN 2016. 25 20 Nominal income 15 Inflation rate 10 Real income 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -5 -10 Source: www.gks.ru, http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/monreo/12-2015-sep.pdf HOW DO RUSSIANS SAVE MONEY ON FOOD? buy cheaper products of try to make a list for 31 % 29% cheaper brands shopping beforehand go shopping more seldom 21 % don’t buy expensive products 22% and control expenses carefully 26 % always look for promo 16% buy for the future use 28 % choose shops, where one can find more promo and discounts Source: http://romir.ru/studies/780_1461618000/ WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO CONSUMERS IN FOOD SELECTION? Main criteria for product selection, %, fourth quarter 2015. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: www.nielsen.com 20-35 % OF PROCESSED CHEESE SOLD WITH PROMO THE STRUCTURE OF PROCESSED CHEESE SALES IN RUSSIA, %, BY SEGMENTS For the first time in 5-6 years the premium segment of processed cheese shows 120 a negative trend. The mainstream segment’s share is growing. 100 37 38 80 41 42 45 60 16 16 17 16 31 40 47 20 43 41 39 31 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Economy & PL Mainstream Premium Source: own data SHARE OF PROCESSED CHEESE SALES COMPARING TO YELLOW CHEESE SALES OVER THE LAST YEAR Consumers are switching from yellow cheese to processed cheese mostly in order to save money. This is the reason why the category is growing in total. 100% 95% 90% Moscow Saint-Petersburg 24% 85% 30% +15% (+350 tons) +11% (+94 tons) 80% PROCESSED CHEESE 75% YELLOW CHEESE 70% January-February, 2016 VS. January-February, 2015 65% 76% 60% 70% 55% 50% 2015_I 2016_I Source: own data ‘DO NOT RAISE THE PRICE!’ All companies operating on the market have to search for ways to optimization. There are four basic of them: Downsizing in packages New unusual taste – assortment development Changing the recipe and product type: cheese product instead of natural processed cheese Changing the Ingredients formulation: produce slightly lower quality product but keep price the same WHAT TRENDS OF PRODUCTION DO CUSTOMERS NOTICE? Consumers save on purchases – manufacturers save on quality. And consumers see this saving. Cheese category itself is number one in the list of products became worse over the last couple of years. Quality hasn’t Quality Diminution of (%) changed improvement quality Butter and dairy 66 15 11 food Milk 68 17 8 Meat products 56 18 12 Meat 60 20 8 Vegetables 52 23 16 Fish and seafood 51 12 19 Dried fruits 56 8 9 Cheese 42 13 33 Fruits 53 18 20 Source: http://romir.ru/studies/752_1454533200/ HOW MUCH HIGH-QUALITY NATURAL PROCESSED CHEESE SHOULD COST? Let us imagine the example of cost accounting for HIGH-QUALITY natural processed cheese. We’ve taken more or less typical recipe of processed cheese made of mixture of yellow cheese, butter and milk powder. Recipe (Cheeses/butter/dry powers): 215 Rub/kg Processed cheese Production costs: + 30% in avarage shelf-price MINIMUM!!! Corporate income: 7-10% Retail mark-up (direct/indirect) 350-390 ͌ 30% Rub/kg * The calculation doesn’t include marketing budget or expenses for entering the market or aggressive competition. HEALTHY TREND IS STILL POPULAR IN RUSSIA So main question for everyone is whether the market takes a route to cost saving which is a road to nowhere or develops? Main features of products, for which consumers are ready to pay more (opinion poll in 2015): Calcium-Rich Without sugar/ low in sugar Low in salt High-Protein Food All natural product Russian consumers, who are ready to pay more for Without GMO the feature Without artificial colours Without artificial flavor Whole-wheat Low in calories Low fat Without gluten 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: http://www.nielsen.com/ru/ru/insights/reports/2014/we-are-what-we-eat-russia-2015.html CAN PROCESSED CHEESE BECOME A PART OF “HEALTHY FOOD”-TREND? I wish you all success and the best ideas in product development! Added: Calcium/ Vitamins A & B6/ Protein NO: Low/No/Reduced: artificial flavors/ Fat/Calories E-codes/preservatives Low/No/Reduced: Lactose/ Cholesterol/Allergen Gluten-Free THANK YOU! www.valio.ru .
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