Cheese Market
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MARKET U.S. Dairy Export Council® RESEARCH RUSSIA Cheese Market MAY 2007 Copyright ©2007. USDEC. All rights reserved. Russian Cheese Market CONTENTS Introduction 3 1. Main Indicators of Domestic Cheese Industry 6 1.1. Market Capacity 6 1.2. Domestic Production: Key Trends 7 1.3. Foreign Trade: General Indicators 10 1.4. Exports 10 2. Foreign Trade Operations 11 2.1. Import Duties 11 2.2. Exporters to Russia 11 2.2.1. CIS countries 12 2.2.2. Baltic States 12 2.2.3. Non-CIS countries 12 2.3. Import Structure by Types and Varieties 16 2.3.1. Natural cheeses 16 2.3.2. Process cheeses 18 2.4. Leading Imported Cheeses 19 3. Distribution System 21 3.1. Leading Regional Cheese Markets: Main Product Trade & Distribution Flows 21 3.2. Main Operators 21 3.2.1. Domestic manufacturers 21 3.2.2. Foreign manufacturers 22 3.2.3. Foreign trade branches 23 3.2.4. Wholesalers 24 3.2.5. Role of retail chains: 20 largest domestic food chains. 25 3.3. Major Wholesalers/Distributors 26 4. Consumption 30 4.1. Industrial Consumption 30 4.2. Horeca 31 5. Forecast of Domestic Cheese Market Development 33 June 2007 U.S Dairy Export Council Russian Cheese Market Introduction Since the year 2000, consumption of cheese continues to rise along with the growth of disposable income of the Russian population. Even in 2004-05, despite a slow down, the growth of market capacity remained at double digits. In 2006 domestic consumption remained steady due to a combination of two factors: first and foremost, the imposition of administrative import barriers against the Ukraine, a leading exporter and; second, the introduction of new, higher import tariffs. In the near future, Russia expects further increase in its physical market capacity. As a result, the per capita consumption is expected to reach 6.6 kg by 2010 (2006: 4.6 kg). Domestic production is increasing by about 5-10% per annum, mainly at the expense of process cheese. The share of process cheese in total domestic production reached 40%, due to some extent to the launching of production in Russia by multinational companies, such as Hochland and Lactalis. In the 90s, production of hard and semi-hard cheeses diminished and only recently resumed growth. Due to increased demand of cheese, imported cheese will continue to saturate the market. In 2004 imports amounted to 254,500 mt while in 2005 it amounted to 306,000 mt. The decrease in 2006 should be overcome in 2007. Domestic cheese manufacturers face numerous problems ranging from low quality to high seasonality. Another growing problem is consolidation at wholesale and retail companies, which prefer to cooperate with foreign manufacturers that are able to bypass both quality and seasonality problems. More than half of all imported cheeses are being delivered from two CIS countries: the Ukraine and Belarus. They supply the same type of cheeses as Russian manufacturers, but are more price competitive. The decrease of imports from the Ukraine from 110,000 mt in 2005 to 37,000 mt in 2006 was partly substituted with cheeses from Belarusian and Baltic States. Among non-CIS countries, Germany plays a major role. Its physical volume import share amounts to 15%. Semi-hard cheeses are its most important category. Poland (7%), Argentina (4%), France (2.5%) and Finland (6.1%) are all leading exporters to Russia in the process cheese category. All together Russia imports cheese from more than 40 countries. The most popular variety is Rossiyskiy, which is manufactured by Russian, Ukrainian and Belarus cheese makers. Other popular domestic varieties include Gollandskiy, Kostromskoy, Poshekhonskiy. Most recently, Lamber has started to gain in popularity. It is manufactured by WBD, the region’s largest domestic dairy company. Among imported cheeses, Gouda, Edam, Maasdam, Tilsiter and Rokishkio lead. Process cheeses are also gaining in popularity including domestic “sausage cheese”, Hochland varieties, the famous domestic Druzhba (“Friendship”) and Viola. Ten major wholesalers dominate the domestic imported cheese pipelines. They control the main parts of the distribution system, both in terms of institutional and regional channels. Exporting Countries According to the Russian Customs Service, Russia has imported cheese from more than 40 countries, including 7 countries of the FSU. In 2006 the number of exporters consisted of 36 countries. June 2007 2 U.S Dairy Export Council Russian Cheese Market Table 1 Dynamics of cheese imports from CIS and non-CIS countries (000 mt) 2006 2005 2004 Total 273 300 256 Non - CIS 164 120 111 inc. Baltic countries 48 30 29 CIS 109 180 145 inc. Ukraine 37 111 90 Belarus 70 65 53 In 2006 a noticeable shift in the import structure took place, mainly because of the “Ukrainian ban”. As the result, the market share for CIS countries decreased, while non-CIS countries increased their market share to 60% of total imports. Diagram 1 Distribution of imported cheeses among the main group of countries in 2006 (% of imports) other CIS* 0.7% Baltic countries 17.6% non - CIS* 42.5% Belarus 25.6% Ukraine 13.6% *CIS – 12 countries Source: IKAR based on Rosstat, Belarus Stat service and industry information Role of CIS Countries Two CIS countries play a leading role in domestic cheese supply: Ukraine and Belarus In 2005 combined total imports amounted to 57%. The cheese quality is comparable to Russian cheese, but is more price competitive. In 2006 Belarusian cheeses were offered at wholesale prices 15-20% lower than domestic ones, while Ukrainian prices were comparable to Russian. Belarus has gained momentum and has increased its amount of cheese deliveries to Russia to 70,000 mt. Imports from other CIS countries have been negligible. Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz export nonfat cheese for further processing. Lactalis exports cheddar from Moldova (250 mt). Some small amounts of mozzarella are delivered from Azerbaijan (manufactured with support of Italian partners). June 2007 3 U.S Dairy Export Council Russian Cheese Market Baltic States Lithuania plays a very important role in the Russian cheese import market, with physical volume share at about 15% of total imports. However, re-export plays a dominant role in Lithuanian exports, amounting to almost 30%. German cheese also plays a significant role. Latvia and Estonia’s shares are insignificant. June 2007 4 U.S Dairy Export Council Russian Cheese Market 1. Main Indicators of Domestic Cheese Industry 1.1. Market Capacity Since 2000 cheese consumption has increased along with growth of disposable incomes. In 2004 and 2005 growth rates decreased, but were still in the double digits category. In 2006 physical market capacity remained about the same because of regulatory barriers on cheese imports from the Ukraine and an increase on import tariffs from non-CIS countries. Diagram 1.1.1 Physical market capacity in 2000-2006 (000 mt) 2006г. 668 2005г. 671 2004г. 595 2003г. 540 2002г. 430 2001г. 353 2000г. 253 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Source: IKAR based on Rosstat, Russian customs and Belarus statistical service Note: the letter “r”, which precedes the date (represented in the y-axis) represents the word “year”. Up until 2006, domestic market growth took place mainly due to an increase in imports. Domestic production is also growing, but at a slower pace. Table 1.1.1 Structure of market capacity: domestic vs. imported cheese* Production Import Export Total Total (000 mt) (000 mt) (000 mt) (000 mt) ($ million) 2004 351.6 254.5 2.3 595 1,720 2005 378 306 3.5 671 2,350 2006 400 273 5.5 668 2,490 *wholesale prices Note: total numbers for 2004 and 2005 do not equal the sum of production, imports and exports. Some quantity, whether produced or imported, of natural cheeses were used as raw materials to manufacture process cheeses. Hence, total figure was adjusted to avoid double counting. However, for 2006 preliminary import and production figures were used. Since FINAL figures are always higher (final annual figures appear in July), the data need not be adjusted for double counting, as it would elicit lower figures than actual TOTAL MARKET SIZE. Source: IKAR based on Rosstat, Russian customs and Belarus statistical service In 2006 market capacity slightly decreased in terms of physical volume, but increased by about 6% in terms of price to US $2,490 million. June 2007 5 U.S Dairy Export Council Russian Cheese Market Diagram 1.1.2 Physical and dollar cheese market capacity in 2002 –2006 (000 mt, US$ mil) 700 3000 671 668 650 595 600 2500 540 2 490 550 2 350 500 2000 430 450 1720 400 1500 1500 350 300 TM T $ mlllion 1000 1020 250 200 500 2002г. 2003г. 2004г. 2005г. 2006г. Note: the letter “r”, which precedes the date (represented in the x-axis) represents the word “year”. Source: IKAR based on Rosstat, Russian customs and Belarus statistical service 1.2. Domestic Production: Key Trends According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, currently 600 plants manufacture cheese with half of these facilities producing less than 100 mt. Among the total number of plants, 150 are specialized cheese making facilities. Despite recent growth, Russia has still not reached its maximum historic production level of 1990, when the total country output was 458,000 mt. Diagram 1.2.1 Fat cheese output (including cheese in salted solution) in Russia (000 mt) 500 458 450 407 394 400 400 378 349 352 332 299 350 313 316 299 285 300 262 218 253 250 222 193 200 174 185 150 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: IKAR based on Rosstat Recent growth in domestic production is mainly attributed to process cheeses, manufactured by both domestic and newly established affiliates of multinational companies, such as Hochland Group (Germany) and Lactalis (France).