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Guidelines for the USDA-APHIS- PPQ Weed Risk Assessment Process

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Guidelines for the USDA-APHIS- PPQ Weed Risk Assessment Process United States Guidelines for the USDA-APHIS- Department of PPQ Weed Risk Assessment Agriculture Process Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Protection and Quarantine February 11, 2019 Version 2.3 Agency Contact: Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Plant Protection and Quarantine Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service United States Department of Agriculture 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, NC 27606 Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 1 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. 3 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ 4 Section 1: Introduction to the PPQ Weed Risk Assessment ..................................................... 5 Risk analysis framework ............................................................................................................. 5 Usage and meaning of the term “invasive” ................................................................................. 7 Section 2: Overview and Interpretation of the PPQ Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) ............ 8 The predictive model ................................................................................................................... 9 Secondary screening .................................................................................................................. 10 Geographic potential ................................................................................................................. 10 Entry potential ........................................................................................................................... 11 Uncertainty ................................................................................................................................ 12 Summary of uncertainty ........................................................................................................ 12 Uncertainty Analysis ............................................................................................................. 12 The final product ....................................................................................................................... 14 Section 3: Conducting the PPQ WRA ....................................................................................... 15 Process 1: Gathering background information .......................................................................... 15 1-1. Verifying taxon identity and listing synonyms and common names ............................. 16 1-2. Familiarize yourself with the plant taxon ...................................................................... 17 1-3. Documenting the initiating event .................................................................................. 17 1-4. Briefly review the foreign and U.S. distribution of the taxon ....................................... 17 Process 2: Gathering the evidence ............................................................................................ 18 2-1. Familiarizing yourself with the questions and the Excel workbook ............................. 18 2-2. General approach to evidence gathering ....................................................................... 20 2-3. Reviewing the literature................................................................................................. 21 2-4. Gathering evidence on U.S. distribution and status of the plant taxon ......................... 23 Process 3: Answering the questions and describing Uncertainty .............................................. 26 3-1. Presenting and evaluating the evidence ......................................................................... 26 3-2. Answering the questions ................................................................................................ 29 3-3. Determining uncertainty ratings for questions .............................................................. 32 3.4. Entering the level of uncertainty .................................................................................... 34 3.5. The index of uncertainty ................................................................................................ 35 3-6. Tracking the process in the spreadsheet ........................................................................ 36 Process 4: Assessing geographic potential ................................................................................ 36 4-1. Gathering and preparing the data for input into ArcGIS ............................................... 37 4-2. Adding georeferenced and reported occurrence data to ArcMap .................................. 38 4-3. Assessing the global distribution of a taxon .................................................................. 38 4-4. Conducting Proto3 analysis ........................................................................................... 39 Final notes ............................................................................................................................. 39 Process 5: Assessing entry potential ......................................................................................... 40 Process 6: Uncertainty analysis ................................................................................................. 41 Process 7: Finalizing and assembling the WRA ....................................................................... 44 7-1. Reviewing the final outcome of the assessment in the Excel workbook ....................... 44 TP E-300, Ver. 2.3 February 11, 2019 1 7-2. Preparing and finalizing the WRA Word document ..................................................... 45 7-3. Peer review of the final WRA product .......................................................................... 50 Literature Cited .......................................................................................................................... 50 Appendices ................................................................................................................................... 54 List of Appendices .................................................................................................................... 54 Appendix A. Questions and scoring used in the PPQ weed risk assessment ............................ 55 Appendix B. Logistic regression model formulas ..................................................................... 59 Appendix C. Logistic regression model and decision thresholds for Low Risk, Evaluate Further, and High Risk .............................................................................................................. 60 Appendix D. Secondary screening tool of the PPQ WRA ........................................................ 61 Appendix E. Question-specific guidance and examples for the risk element Establishment/Spread Potential ................................................................................................. 63 Appendix F. Question-specific guidance and examples for the risk element Impact Potential 88 Appendix G. Question-specific guidance and examples for the risk element Geographic Potential ................................................................................................................................... 106 General guidance for recording evidence ........................................................................... 106 General guidance for answering the questions ................................................................... 107 General guidance for addressing uncertainty ...................................................................... 107 Specific guidance for each climatic variable ...................................................................... 107 References for Geographic Potential .................................................................................. 110 Appendix H. Question-specific guidance and examples for the risk element Entry Potential 111 Appendix I. Conceptual process for the uncertainty analysis in the PPQ WRA .................... 119 Appendix J. Work instructions for performing an uncertainty analysis (a stochastic simulation) using @Risk. ........................................................................................................................... 121 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... 123 Version Change Log ................................................................................................................. 124 TP E-300, Ver. 2.3 February 11, 2019 2 List of Tables Table 1. Description of worksheets within the PPQ WRA Excel workbook. Table 2. Comparison of the terms “invasive plant” and “weed” as they relate to the PPQ WRA. Table 3. Multiple-choice questions in the PPQ WRA. Table 4. Uncertainty ratings used to describe question-level uncertainty in the PPQ WRA. Table 5. Thresholds for different qualitative levels of uncertainty for the Establishment/Spread and Impact risk elements. TP E-300, Ver. 2.3 February 11, 2019 3 List of Figures Figure 1. Sample excerpt from the workbook of an in-progress WRA. Figure 2. Risk space of the PPQ WRA model as determined
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