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Party System and Public Opinion in Contemporary South Africa

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Party System and Public Opinion in Contemporary South Africa Máster en Democracia y Gobierno Departamento de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Working Papers Online Series http://www.uam.es/ss/Satellite/Derecho/es/1242658791834/listadoCom bo/Working_Papers.htm Estudio/Working Paper 162/2014 Electoral Behaviour in Deeply Divided Societies: The case of Contemporary South Africa Carlos García Rivero Universidad de Valencia [email protected] * Paper for presentation at the Research Seminar – Master in Democracy and Government, Autonoma University, Madrid; March 12th, 2014 Work in progress, not for citation or quotation without the author’s permission © Carlos García-Rivero, Valencia University. Abstract South Africa became a multiracial democracy in 1994, and a dominant party system was configured in the political scenario with the ANC as the main political party. Since then race has been the main cleavage at the polls. This paper analyzes South Africa's party system and public opinion in an attempt to discern whether or not it is possible to reconfigure the party system into a more competitive one. Results show the following conclusions: ideological differences among different populations groups are being reduced; race is losing weight as a factor explaining vote; class indicators are gaining terrain as explanatory factors and; although not in the short term, the split-up within the ANC and the appearance of COPE should not be underestimated. The study is a quantitative analysis that makes extensive use of survey data gathered in South Africa in the last two decades. 2 Introduction South Africa held its first democratic multiracial elections in 1994 giving rise to a dominant party system where the African National Congress (ANC) has been and still is the main political party. Since then, the ANC got absolute majorities election after election mainly due to the absence of a real alternative at the national level capable to challenge the ANC hegemony and to the fact that race has been the most important cleavage in South African electoral behaviour. The result is a dominant- party system since 1994. Dominant party systems are defined as systems where only one party can realistically get in office on its own or in coalition. This situation is or has been shared by more than 20 parties in Africa. The situation appeared to change in South Africa. The appearance of Congress of People (COPE) in the last elections of April 2009 from within the ANC, gives rise to the question whether a two-party system is being configured in South Africa or not. For this to be true race should loose weight as a factor explaining vote; ideological differences between different population groups should be reduced and the relevance of other cleavages like class should increase. This paper analyses this issue in an attempt to discern whether or not the new party scenario may produce a stable two-party system The research takes form of a quantitative analyses making extensive use of survey data. The structure of the article is as follows: First a presentation of the methodology and the data used; follows a presentation of the South African party system and election results, followed by the analysis and the conclusions reached. 3 Methodology The research is a quantitative analysis making extensive use of survey data. Concretely, data from two sources: the Afrobarometer1 and the World Values Survey2. The analysis is two-fold, on the one had it is presented that different population groups have come closer in terms of public opinion and, second, the effect of race and class in explaining vote in South Africa. First the election results are presented and analysed to illustrate the South African party system. Second, an analysis of ideological differences of population groups3 is made through the comparison of self-positioning questions related to ideological issues4. Finally, the electoral behaviour in South Africa is analysed. Concretely, a comparison of the evolution, since 1994 until 2014, of race and class as explanatory factors driving vote. Unfortunately not all items were included in all the surveys making more accurate comparisons impossible. This was the case of Afrobarometers 2008 and 2011 and World Value Survey 2014 The analysis has not been focused exclusively in vote but also in party closeness or identification (when available) because during the elections the electorate is under the effect of many factors that are not present in daily life and consequently their normal disposition may be altered by other factors present in the electoral campaign. Class is measured in terms of occupational status, which is referred to a hierarchical structure of occupational skills, which ranks from the lowest skilled occupations to the occupations that require a very high level of skills/training. Again not all surveys include occupation in the questionnaires. South African Elections and Party System The formation of a dominant-party system has obvious and important implications for democratic consolidation. In a scenario where a single party can effectively win an election and consequently dominate, gives rise to questions on accountability and responsiveness and erosion of democratic principles and practices. Since minority rule was replaced in South Africa by multiracial contest, election after election the only debate was about whether the African National Congress would go beyond the two thirds majority. South Africa has been a dominant party system, although this label has been generally refused by the ANC as it has been considered to be conservative and hostile (Southall, 2005: 61)5. In 4 table 1 the results of April elections on the national level are shown together with those held immediately before, in 2004, and the first elections, held in 1994, for comparison. Table 1 The first conclusion we come to is the above-mentioned overwhelmingly victory of the ANC; second, the decrease of the weight of the minor parties, which are disappearing and the new party system is being shaped anew following the trail of other consolidated democracies. One of the parties which is fading away is the historical IFP. Zulu nationalism, of which the Inkhata Freedom Party has benefited in the province of Kwazulu Natal, is vanishing. One of the cards the ANC has played with strength and efficiency has been the Zulu origin of Jacob Zuma6, enough to shift votes from IFP to ANC7. Concretely, the ANC has obtained 63.37% of its votes from the province of Kwazulu Natal, main stronghold of IFP, opposite the 47.47% it obtained in the 2004 elections. Paradoxically, COPE only obtained 1.55% in this province8, its lowest percentage in the whole country. In the same direction, the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) has changed from 1.25% in 1994, to 0.78% in 1999, 0.73% in 2004 and 0.27% in 2009. Patricia de Lille9 abandoned PAC and formed the Independent Democrats, which managed to get 7 seats and more than 260.000 votes in 2004, but now, five years later, it has shrunk to scarcely 160.000 and 4 deputies. The scenario is, thus, reduced to 4 parties although, if the tendency continues, it could end in 3 because if the IPF votes continue being absorbed, it could also end up as a residual party. The only political party of the opposition which stands the reconfiguration of the party system is the Democratic Alliance which is even increasing its electoral support from a scarce 2% in 1994 to a 16.66% in the recent elections of April. The COPE10, though not meeting up to expectations, has entered as the third party of the parliamentary spectrum and it is still to be seen if it will consolidate as an alternative to the ANC or if it will follow the steps of its predecessors like the UDM of Bantu Holomisa which obtained 14 deputies when it left the ANC. Afterwards it decreased to 9 in 2004 and had 4 in these last ones. Nevertheless, this time the split within the ANC has been made at the highest level, affecting a much higher level of militancy and with a clear ideological division, which could provide the party which is leaving, the COPE, with electoral viability in time. 5 In this context, arguing that the victory of ANC is similar to the previous ones because it has been close to two thirds is mistaken. The ANC has lost votes in favour of DA and COPE and the extraction would have been higher if it had not benefited from the problems of the Inkhata Freedom Party and from the exploitation of the ethnic origin (Zulu) of its candidate, Jacob Zuma. Without these factors, the ANC would have fallen much lower and the future will show if the ANC is able to keep the “borrowed” vote from IFP. Zuma's administration and the ability of COPE to learn from its own mistakes during the electoral campaign, will determine if the hegemony of ANC is unbreakable or if it could lose, if not the government, the absolute majority11. COPE has forced ANC to act defensively even when the victory was taken for granted. If, under the presidency of Zuma, ANC government does not shift to more populist economic measures in the economic field and nepotism and abuses in the political area (abrogation of the separation of powers, tendencies to a single-party state; impunity of the president12, appointment of high positions in the judiciary according to personal and party loyalty, abrogation of the ability to control opposition, etc.)13, ANC will be able to confirm its victory in the polls in the future. Otherwise, the impressive brain drain of the country will grow again, the impunity of the governing party will increase the levels of violence and criminality as in other African countries (its northern neighbour, Zimbabwe, without going any further) and economic populism will end with the achievements obtained till the present, provoking a change in the electorate towards the new alternative which has appeared in this elections: COPE.
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