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Home , Good (political party), Jacob Zuma, Julius Malema, Mmusi Maimane, South African Party, Thuli Madonsela

Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments

Competition for the ANC WP Dominant Party Losing Youth and Poorer Sections of South African Population

Melanie Müller S

South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), will elect a new president in December 2017. This person will also stand for the office of President of at the beginning of 2019 when President reaches the maximum number of two consecutive terms allowed by the country’s constitution. It is currently unclear whether he can finish his final term. Since the dismissal of finance minister, , resistance against Zuma has reached a new climax. A broad alliance of civil society groups, trade unions and party representatives, even some from within his own party, have called for his resignation. Although these protests are aimed directly at Zuma, the causes of the dissatisfaction lie deeper. The ANC has not been able to success- fully address the country’s social challenges. In addition, and mismanage- ment have shaken confidence. For a long time, the former liberation movement was considered the only party to vote for by the black population. In the past four years, how- ever, the ANC has faced serious competition from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Given the loss of meaning of the ANC, the system is changing.

In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the network. However, the ANC did not succeed ANC failed to achieve a two-thirds majority in overcoming social injustice in South – for the first time in the history of demo- Africa, as promised. cratic South Africa. In the 2016 local elec- tions, its share of votes even fell below 50 percent in its stronghold of . The importance of the ANC That approval for the ANC would wane has after been repeatedly predicted since 1994. How- It is impossible to understand South African ever, so far, the Party has always been able society today and the importance of the ANC to secure power. The reasons for this are without looking at its history. The Apart- complex: the ANC purposefully expanded heid regime (1948-1991) divided the popu- its influence after the transition to democ- lation into four groups on the basis of racist racy. Like other liberation movements, it criteria (Blacks, , Indians, Whites) was able to incorporate different social and ascribed the Whites a higher social groups into the political system and into its status because, supposedly, they were the

Dr. Melanie Müller is an Associate in SWP’s Middle East and Africa Division SWP Comments 18 May 2017

1 only ‘civilized’ group. The regime then or relegating it to non-parliamentary oppo- adopted laws for the separation of society sition. The only party to establish itself as based on these classifications. By the end an opposition in the National Assembly of Apartheid, the proportion of black South is the Democratic Alliance (DA) which has Africans was around 75 percent, the Col- also governed the Province oureds ten percent and the Indians three since 2009 and currently holds 89 of 400 percent. The ruling white group accounted parliamentary seats. For the black popula- for around ten percent of the whole popu- tion, voting for the DA was taboo for a long lation. The Apartheid regime allocated par- time, since it was considered a party of the ticular residential areas to the population white population and, in the initial years groups, with the black districts being the of democracy, it primarily sought support most under-resourced. The fragmentation from Whites, Indians and Coloureds. of society affected all spheres of life: for ex- ample, black students had to study at their own, inadequately financed universities and Substantial social inequality and black schools were also desperately under- widespread corruption funded. Non-white workers were also for- The lack of prospects for many parts of bidden to engage in certain higher-value the population has led to considerable dis- activities. satisfaction with the ANC. Since 1994, the The ANC assumed a leading role in op- government has succeeded in reducing posing Apartheid. In the mid-1960s, the rates of poverty and developing the supply South African government banned the of water and electricity in South Africa. How- liberation movement and then imprisoned ever, living conditions are still very bad in prominent actors, such as . many areas. Almost half of the South Afri- However, other ANC members organized can population lives in poverty. Black South international resistance to the system of Africans are still the worst affected group Apartheid from exile. Although the ANC was at 54 percent of the population, followed by by no means the only oppositional force – Coloureds at 27.6 percent. Rates of poverty in there were other political organizations as the rural provinces of and Eastern well as a massive civil society revolt against Cape are around 60 percent. Even in Cape the regime – it achieved a dominant position, Town, the richest city in the country, a not least through its international network. quarter of the population lives in poverty. Since the first free elections in 1994, the South Africa is now one of the countries ANC has been governing at the national with the highest economic inequality in the level in a three-party alliance with the South world. According to official sources, the un- Party (SACP) and the employment rate in the last quarter of 2016 Congress of South African Trade Unions was 26.5 percent. Among the black popu- (COSATU). Only the ANC stood at the parlia- lation it was as high as 30 percent whereas, mentary elections in South Africa. The two among the white population, it was only other parties received a fixed share of ANC 6.6 percent. In addition, between 6 and 15 seats. percent of the population is considered Large sections of civil society were also underemployed, meaning they engage in included in the corporatist state model an activity that is underpaid and/or does which initially left little room for genuine not correspond to their qualifications. opposition. Although the political system A second aspect increasing dissatisfac- in South Africa is principally based on a tion among the population is poor govern- multi-party system, to date, it has actually ance: corruption, mismanagement and been a one-party system. The ANC has succ- cronyism now pervade South African eeded in smashing any emerging opposi- politics. The perception of those whose tion and politically integrating parts of it situation has not improved over the last

SWP Comments 18 May 2017

2 two and a half decades is that parts of the succeeded in making these groups a politi- ANC have allied with business to enrich cal offer with their left-wing populist rheto- themselves at the expense of the population. ric: in 2014, not long after they were founded, Jacob Zuma has further reinforced this wide- they won 25 seats in the South African par- spread view of corruption among the elites liament with a 6 percent of the vote. with his scandals: he maintains a close rela- tionship with the which has participating interests in various sectors of Satisfied middle class the economy. The family has frequently Historically, the black middle class – even benefitted from ties to Zuma and has even though its share of population under Apart- influenced political decisions. This scandal heid was small – has played a significant was documented in a State of Capture political role in South Africa. Between the Report by , the then Public 1940s and the 1970s, the number of black Protector of the state of South Africa. Madon- children receiving general school education sela also revealed that Zuma had misappro- rose from 588,000 to 2.7 million. In 1969 priated public funds to renovate his private and 1970 two black universities were estate in Nkandla. This has not yet lead to founded giving a few black students an aca- any serious political consequences for Zuma. demic education. Members of this middle He has succeeded in building up a network class also contributed to resistance against of allies within the ANC that protects him Apartheid, reaching its climax in the late and also benefits politically. The office of 1970s. They were, and still are today, party has now been taken over members or committed ANC voters. Accord- by a successor sympathetic to the President. ing to a study by , Another incisive event for the South Afri- the size of the black middle class rose from can population was the violent breakup of a 350,000 to three million between 1993 and miners’ strike in 2012. shot 34 strik- 2012. In order to qualify as middle class, ing workers at the Marikana platinum mine the study used a minimum annual income and the incident was captured on South of 25,000 rand (equivalent to 3250 US dol- African television cameras. This approach lars in 2000 prices). Another calculation was reminiscent of the Apartheid regime’s assumes an increase to 3.8 million people violent crushing of protests by black South by 2011 and, correspondingly, a rise in the Africans in Sharpeville in 1960. Many South middle class to seven percent of the black Africans were shocked that a similar event population. Other studies involving not could happen under an ANC-led government. only income, but also aspects such as per- Many now call it the , manent employment, the ability to read equating it with the . and write, access to basic supplies (water, electricity and sanitation) and also owner- ship of certain items (television, radio or Social developments, refrigerator), produce even higher figures, political alternatives namely an increase in the middle class to The ANC is still the party of choice for the 27 percent of the black population by 2008. emerging black middle class, even though Many black South Africans have benefit- dissatisfaction is growing within this group. ed from programmes aimed at eliminating The situation is different, however, among the consequences of discrimination under groups whose economic status has not im- Apartheid. Dissatisfaction with the ANC is, proved since the end of Apartheid. Large therefore, less widespread among those in parts of this lower strata have turned their the middle class with positive future pros- backs on the ANC since the end of the 1990s pects. In general, awareness of the harmful and have primarily become socially engaged. consequences of corruption and the criteria The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have for good governance are growing. Voting for

SWP Comments 18 May 2017

3 the DA is still not a popular option among in housing without adequate access to run- the black population, however, in 2011 four ning water, electricity or sanitation. percent of black South Africans said they There are various social movements spe- would consider voting for them. The highest cifically engaged in ensuring general access proportion of this four percent belonged to to services of general interest. These local the middle class. In recent years, the DA has groups are important because they repre- changed its personnel and its image. In May sent the interests of those left behind. Many 2015, was elected the first informal settlements or townships with high black Federal Leader of the party. Maimane rates of poverty complain that the ANC no and other aspiring politicians are working longer represents them. Mismanagement hard to shake off the old spirit of the party. and corruption as well as the ignorance of When former DA Leader, , com- local politicians to the needs of the poor mented on Twitter in mid-March 2017 that have shaken trust in those in government. colonialism had also brought benefits, the One consequence of this is violence. Crime new leadership responded immediately: rates in the townships and informal settle- Maimane publicly disagreed with Zille, ments are already very high and the ten- even though she is the of Western sion is clearly felt. Political violence esca- Cape, the only province the DA governs. lates quickly here. Demonstrators ignite The party also called for disciplinary action refuse bins or tyres and destroy houses or against Zille, emphasizing in this context shops to draw attention to the poor local that its objective was to build an economi- conditions. For many groups, political vio- cally prosperous and non-racist democracy. lence appears to be the only way of attract- The DA could become an attractive option ing attention to their plight. Increasingly, for parts of the black middle class growing violence is directed against migrants from up without economic concerns and com- other African countries: 2017 saw many mitted to democratic and economic values. large-scale xenophobic attacks. The reasons for this are not only found in the character- istics of South African society resulting from At the lower end the Apartheid period, but also in the poor At the lower end of the middle class, the living conditions and the fact that these economic reality is somewhat different: attacks are ignored politically. The hatred is members of the lower middle class living in directed at those who are even lower in the precarious conditions are at risk of sliding social hierarchy. into poverty. Almost half of South Africans live in poverty; almost 20 percent in ex- treme poverty. Since the end of the 1990s, The EFF as an alternative mass protests have been repeatedly held Before being elected President of the ANC against the poor living conditions in South in 2007, Jacob Zuma promised to address African townships and in rural areas. The South Africa’s social problems. At the time, starting point was the privatization of basic he beat whom large sections supply companies from 1996, with the of the population accused of neglecting result that the poor, i.e. black, population social challenges in favour of growth-ori- strata suffered severely. Families who could ented policies after he came to power in no longer pay their electricity bills were, 1999. Zuma, however, disappointed those for example, disconnected from supply, that elected him as President in 2009. There even though the South African constitution have been several attempts in recent years guarantees a right to electricity. In addition, to build a social-democratic or left-leaning 22 percent of those living in Johannesburg party as an alternative to the ANC, most and almost 19 percent of those in Cape recently by the National Union of Metal Town live in informal settlements, that is Workers of South Africa (NUMSA). Follow-

SWP Comments 18 May 2017

4 ing criticism from the , cal climate. But Malema’s political calcula- it was excluded from the Congress of South tions are working because with this rheto- African Trade Unions (COSATU) in 2014 and ric he is able to win over angry parts of the has since been working to forge an alliance population with few prospects. Since the between trade unions and social movements. demonstrations against Zuma, the EFF have So far, these efforts have been unsuccessful. increasingly distanced themselves from the They have not been able to unite the work- violence. Meanwhile, even the DA is cooper- ing class with the lower classes and thus ating with the EFF to weaken Zuma. In par- form a political alternative to the ANC which liament, too, these very opposing parties can integrate a large portion of the popu- are already supporting each other. lation. In addition, the ANC has repeatedly managed to discredit such initiatives. In contrast, the Economic Freedom A new generation is growing up Fighters (EFF) have succeeded in reaching One new development is the increasingly the lower strata: the party was founded by politicized younger generation. The under- in 2013 and instantly became 34s make up two-thirds of the South Afri- the third strongest force in the 2014 South can population. It is mainly young South African elections. The EFF are a party politi- Africans who are staging protests in the cal alternative for the poor strata. Their townships as well as in rural areas – not goal is to redistribute prosperity in South least because the lack of prospects is dis- Africa, a claim that strongly appeals to those affecting this age group. South African stu- who have not yet benefited from South dents have also been going out on the streets Africa’s economic boom. Certain character- since October 2015. They are demonstrating istics displayed by EFF actors are also im- for better study conditions and for a more portant for their credibility: male members just society. These developments are espe- of parliament wear red shirts representing cially dangerous for the ANC because young workers’ garb and the women wear a cos- voters who did not grow up under Apart- tume reminiscent of clothes worn by domes- heid are far less committed to the ANC than tic workers. This symbolism, the anti-capi- their parents and grandparents. They are talist rhetoric, but also the EFF’s presence challenging the ANC and even the iconic on the streets, explain the success of the figure of Nelson Mandela. party. One of the EFF’s key demands is the re- distribution of land. At the end of Apart- Lack of future prospects heid, 87 percent of South African land was Young South Africans born after Apartheid owned by white people. In the first five years have the greatest hopes, but their current of democracy, the ANC wanted to redistri- prospects are bleak: more than half of South bute 30 percent of land to the black popu- Africans under the age of 24 live in poverty. lation. In 2010, they had only achieved The rate of poverty is only lower in the 25- 8 percent. The reasons for failing to redistri- to-34-year-old age group, but is still at 38.7 bute the land are complex and are not just percent. According to the International due to a lack of will by the government, but Labour Organization, youth unemployment the EFF has put this issue back on the politi- in the whole country is 52 percent. Studies cal agenda. Land reform has been intensively have shown that poor career prospects at a debated again since 2016. young age frequently affect career outlooks However, Malema’s populist invectives in the long term. The reasons for the high repeatedly contain threats against white, youth unemployment in South Africa lie but also against black, rich South Africans mainly in unimplemented reforms of the and are, therefore, dangerous because these country’s education system. It is one of the invectives fuel the already aggressive politi- worst in the world among middle-income

SWP Comments 18 May 2017

5 countries and is also very poor compared to do not feel free, but continue to be stigma- the rest of Africa. Under these conditions, tized by the legacy of Apartheid. As a result, young South Africans without a university their demands also include the decoloniza- education often find it difficult to find a job. tion of the universities. Students at the Uni- But the situation is also difficult at uni- versity of demanded the removal versities. South African students have been of symbols evoking the colonial era. The cur- demonstrating since October 2015. The ricula are also to be revised to take more protests were organized under the hashtag account of African political philosophy and ‘#FeesMustFall’ because they were directly non-Western theories. More black scientists connected to the government’s announce- should be appointed at universities. Stu- ment that study fees would increase. There dents also reject teaching in at are various forms of support for students in some universities. South Africa. However, these funds are not Overall, South Africa’s youth is becom- sufficient to cover the higher fees which ing increasingly disappointed with the especially affect poorer families. In addi- political system and with the ANC. A study tion, state benefits are only available to by the -based Institute for Security some students. Emerging middle-class fami- Studies from 2016 shows that only 33 per- lies usually earn too much to claim them. cent of 18-to-19-year-olds were registered However, their income is not enough to to vote in national elections. Nevertheless, cover their children’s study costs or even to among 20-to-29-year-olds, the figure was 64 take out private loans. As a result, poverty percent. Young South Africans believe that influences study conditions. At the Uni- protests are more effective in bringing about versity of the Witwatersrand in Johannes- social change than voting for a political burg, students stay at the university over- party. While, previously, they tended to night, for example, because they have to vote for the same party as their parents, the travel long distances to get there and can- share of young voters voting for the ANC is not afford accommodation. The protesters now only 30 percent, for the EFF this figure have allied themselves with the teaching is 49 percent and for the DA 14 percent. staff and with workers in the university There have been no political alliances be- service sector whose jobs have been out- tween student movements and any parties, sourced to external providers and have to date. The EFF played an important role in been precarious ever since. supporting the protests at the University of Pretoria, but this was an exception. Never- theless, the impact of student protests Political break with the ANC generation should not be underestimated as they make The students are not only concerned with a contribution towards re-politicizing the improving their own economic situations, youth of South Africa. It is assumed that but also with general political and social more of them will go out and vote at the change. The protests have often been com- next elections in 2019 and, therefore, un- pared with those of the 1968 movement surprising that all political parties, even in Europe and the US because they are the the ANC, are heavily canvassing the student expression of a generational conflict. The vote. Jacob Zuma has since suspended the ANC is viewed very negatively by large num- increase in study fees, but rejection of the bers of demonstrators. The students are President is now so widespread among the even criticizing the iconic figure of Nelson young population that even this step has Mandela: they are suggesting that, after the not made him more popular. transition to democracy, he had made too many economic compromises to maintain social peace in South Africa. Although young demonstrators were born in freedom, they

SWP Comments 18 May 2017

6 Outlook cans, he is one of the richest men in the The long predicted downfall of the ANC has country. Ramaphosa is trying very hard not been abrupt, but it has begun. The EFF to regain his lost credibility. He officially has now become a second opposition party apologized for the Marikana massacre in which, unlike the DA, has succeeded in early May 2017, almost five years after the winning over broader sections of the black event, but this was a tactical move that population. But even the DA is no longer brought him more criticism than trust. considered unelectable. Young South Afri- There are, however, no other suitable can- cans, who are increasingly turning away didates on the horizon. In recent years, the from the ANC, will play a greater role in the power struggles within the ANC have been 2019 elections. The ANC must increase its fought so bitterly that there are only a few efforts to regain the lost trust and to achieve prominent representatives in the party this will take more than just Jacob Zuma’s who are able to act independently and who resignation. An even greater influence on could stand against Zuma or Ramaphosa the future of the governing party will be without their own network. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und the question of who succeeds him. Current developments in the ANC have Politik, 2017 Two options are currently being dis- seriously damaged the political and eco- All rights reserved cussed. The first is ‘business as usual’: Zuma nomic stability of South Africa. The sacking These Comments reflect wants someone from his own network to of finance minister Pravin Gordhan is a the author’s views. succeed him, someone who will not only good example: rating agencies subsequent- SWP secure his legacy but also protect him against ly downgraded the creditworthiness of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik any criminal consequences when his term country. In the South African Development German Institute for of office ends. His current favourite is his Community (SADC), South Africa is increas- International and Security Affairs ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma who, ingly losing its leadership role which is im- until January 2017, was Chairperson of the portant for the stability of the region because Ludwigkirchplatz 3­4 Commission. Her proximity domestic policy determines day-to-day busi- 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 to Zuma is also her greatest weakness. An- ness. It is a source of some concern that Fax +49 30 880 07-100 other solution might be , the internal political tensions are increasingly www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] new finance minister, who is particularly turning into violence. This is exacerbating favoured by the ANC’s powerful youth orga- the situation in South Africa which already ISSN 1861-1761 nization. The 45-year-old intends to reach has major problems with crime and vio- Translation by Martin Haynes younger voters but Gigaba is also an active lence. The government under Jacob Zuma (English version of supporter of Zuma. If the President’s poli- has done little to de-escalate the protests. SWP-Aktuell 35/2017) cies are simply continued, this would lead Protests are repeatedly quashed or violently to the population further losing confidence suppressed by groups supporting the ANC. in the party. There might even be a split South Africa’s weekly newspaper, the Mail & within the ANC. Guardian, reported that ANC members who The second conceivable option is that publicly speak out against Jacob Zuma have , the current Deputy Presi- received death threats. Even though South dent of South Africa, will be voted in at the African democracy is still considered stable, ANC’s 54th National Conference. He is sup- these developments should be observed ported by the ANC in the northern province closely. If Zuma successfully continues his of , by COSATU and by the South policies of patronage and corruption through African Communist Party. Ramaphosa is not a successor he approves of, the political the best candidate. Politically, he has no situation in South Africa might deteriorate longer been uncontroversial since the Mari- further. This would also endanger stability kana massacre. He had called for greater in southern Africa. police intervention only a few days before the workers were murdered. His ties to the economy are too close for many South Afri-

SWP Comments 18 May 2017

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