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30832 Luftkrigsskolen 29 UAV – bare ny teknologi eller en ny strategisk virkelighet? Luftkrigsskolens skriftserie Vol. 29 Andre utgivelser i skriftserien: Vol. 1 Luftforsvaret – et flerbruksverktøy for den kalde krigen? (1999) Øistein Espenes og Nils Naastad. Vol. 2 Aspekter ved konflikt og konflikthåndtering i Kosovo (2000) Gunnar Fermann Vol. 3 Nytt NATO – nytt Luftforsvar?: GILs luftmaktseminar 2000 (2000) Lars Fredrik Moe Øksendal (red.) Vol. 4 Luftkampen sett og vurdert fra Beograd (2000) Ljubisa Rajik Vol. 5 Luftforsvaret i fremtiden: nisjeverktøy for NATO eller multiverktøy for Norge? (2001) John Andreas Olsen Vol. 6 Litteratur om norsk luftfart før 2. verdenskrig: en oversikt og bibliografi (2001) Ole Jørgen Maaø Vol. 7 A critique of the Norwegian air power doctrine (2002) Albert Jensen og Terje Korsnes Vol. 8 Luftmakt, Luftforsvarets og assymetriens utfordringer. GILs luftmaktseminar 2002 (2002) Karl Erik Haug (red.) Vol. 9 Krigen mot Irak: noen perspektiver på bruken av luftmakt (2003) Morten Karlsen, Ole Jørgen Maaø og Nils Naastad Vol. 10 Luftmakt 2020: fremtidige konflikter. GILs luftmaktseminar 2003 (2003) Karl Selanger (red.) Vol. 11 Luftforsvaret og moderne transformasjon: dagens valg, morgendagens tvangstrøye? (2003) Ole Jørgen Maaø (red.) Vol. 12 Luftforsvaret i krig: ledererfaringer og menneskelige betraktninger. GILs lederskapsseminar 2003 (2003) Bjørn Magne Smedsrud (red.) Vol. 13 Strategisk overraskelse sett i lys av Weserübung, Pearl Harbor og Oktoberkrigen (2005) Steinar Larsen Vol. 14 Luftforsvaret i Kongo 1960–1964 (2005) Ståle Schirmer-Michalsen (red.) Vol. 15 Luftforsvarets helikopterengasjement i internasjonale operasjoner: et historisk tilbakeblikk (2005) Ståle Schirmer-Michalsen Vol. 16 Nytt kampfly – Hvilket og til hva? GILs luftmaktseminar 2007 (2007) Torgeir E. Sæveraas (red.) Vol. 17 Trenchard and Slessor: On the Supremacy of Air Power over Sea Power (2007) Gjert Lage Dyndal Vol. 18 På vei mot en militær bachelor. En antologi av kadetter ved Luftkrigsskolen (2008) Vol. 19 Norsk luftmakt – tilbake til fremtiden? GILs luftmaktseminar 2008 (2008) Torgeir E. Sæveraas og Albert Jensen (red.) Vol. 20 Wilhelm Mohr. On World War II (2009) Dag Henriksen Vol. 21 Luftmakt og teknologi – realisme eller overmot? Hvilken effekt har moderne teknologi i krig? GILs LUFTMAKTSEMINAR 2009 (2009) Per Marius Frost-Nielsen og Torgeir E. Sæveraas (red.) Vol. 22 The 1970 – 1974 Combat Aircraft Analysis. Priority to Defensive Counter Air and Anti-Shipping Operations. How optimizing defence resources altered the use of RNoAF fighters (2010) Hans Ole Sandnes Vol. 23 8 år i Afghanistan, Quo Vadis? Et seminar om militær maktanvendelse. GILs LUFTMAKTSEMINAR 2010 (2011), Torgeir E. Sæveraas (red.) Vol. 24 Norske luftmaktstenkere 1926–1940. En presentasjon av fem sentrale skribenter og deres arbeid Frode Lindgjerdet Vol. 25 Etter Afghanistan – Ny strategisk virkelighet? GILs LUFTMAKTSEMINAR 2011 (2012), Torgeir E. Sæveraas (red.) Vol. 26 Luftmaktstenkningens «enfant terrible». Festskrift til Nils E. Naastad på 60-årsdagen. Øistein Espenes og Ole Jørgen Maaø (red.) Vol. 27 Norsk luftmakt over Libya – suksess uten innflytelse? GILs Luftmaktseminar 2012 (2012), Torgeir E. Sæveraas & Vidar Løw Owesen (red.) Vol. 28 Norske kampfly i operation enduring freedom, Afghanistan 2002-2003. Politisk kontroll og engasjementsregler (2013) Per Marius Frost-Nilsen UAV – bare ny teknologi eller en ny strategisk virkelighet? GILs LUFTMAKTSEMINAR 2013 Torgeir E. Sæveraas og Marianne Eidem (red.) © Akademika forlag, Trondheim 2013 ISBN 978-82-321-0235-8 ISSN 1502-007X Det må ikke kopieres fra denne boka ut over det som er tillatt etter bestemmelser i lov om opphavsrett til åndsverk, og avtaler om kopiering inngått med Kopinor. Grafisk formgivning og tilrettelegging: Type-it AS Trykk og innbinding: 07 Gruppen AS Forsidebilde: Rolf Lund med en Aladin mini UAV på vinterøvelsen Cold Response 2009. Kilde: Forsvarets mediesenter/Torbjørn Kjosvold. Formål med skriftserien Med Luftkrigsskolens skriftserie tar Luftkrigsskolen sikte på å synliggjøre skolens virksomhet og gjøre den mer allment tilgjengelig. I serien publiseres studier, seminarrapporter og lignende, hovedsakelig innenfor fagfeltene luftmakt og ledelse. Synspunktene som kommer til uttrykk i Luftkrigsskolens skriftserie står for forfatternes egen regning, og er således ikke et uttrykk for et offisielt syn fra Forsvarets eller Luftkrigsskolens side. Gjengivelse av innholdet i skriftserien, helt eller delvis, må kun skje med forfatternes samtykke. Redaksjonskomite for skriftserien Luftkrigsskolen: Karl Erik Haug (dekan), Dag Henriksen (oberstløytnant/avdelingssjef), Bjørn Olav Heieraas (oberstløytnant/avdelingssjef) og Torgeir E. Sæveraas (redaktør). Akademika forlag: Terje Tøgersen (forlagsredaktør). Henvendelser om skriftserien kan rettes til: Luftkrigsskolen Trondheim Mil Postboks 4133 7450 Trondheim Tlf: 73 99 54 00 E-post: [email protected] eller Akademika forlag Postboks 2461, Sluppen 7005 TRONDHEIM Tlf.: 73 59 32 10 E-post: [email protected] www.akademikaforlag.no Innhold Introduksjon ............................................... 7 I. DRONENES TIDSALDER? Wired for War: What the Robotics Revolution Means and What to WatchforNext............................................. 15 P.W. Singer Rettslige utfordringer og muligheter ved bruk av droner i fredstid og i væpnede konflikter .......................................... 35 Førsteamanuensis Sigmund Simonsen, Luftkrigsskolen The Future of Airpower ..................................... 59 Martin van Creveld II. TEKNOLOGI OG MULIGHETER Remotely Piloted Aircraft: The USAF Perspective ................ 75 Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Callahan, USAF RAAF experience of examining and selecting maritime ISR UAS options 83 Wing Commander Craig Stallard/Wing Commander Anthony O’Leary, RAAF Alliance Ground Surveillance ................................. 97 Lt Col Scott Coon (US Air Force), SHAPE/J3/AGS Implementation Office 5 GILs Luftmaktseminar 2013 III. JUST ANOTHER AIRPLANE? Drone Pilots, Humanitarians and the Video Game Analogy: Unpacking the Conversation ........................................... 103 Kristin Bergtora Sandvik, Senior Researcher PRIO Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Closer at a Distance .................. 121 Dr Peter Lee, Portsmouth University/Royal Air Force College Cranwell How the Use of Drones in the War on Terror Might Contribute to Violence in the Middle East .................................. 141 Professor Rune Ottosen, Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences IV. DET NORSKE PERSPEKTIV Droner – muligheter og begrensninger .......................... 157 Forsvarsminister Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen Tanker rundt UAV-bruk i fremtiden ............................ 165 Kadett Jens Henrik Paulke, Luftkrigsskolen Norsk anvendelse av UAV .................................... 173 Seniorforsker Lorns Harald Bakstad, FFI Communication and Navigation Challenges in the High North ...... 181 Fritz Bekkadal, Senior Research Scientist, MARINTEK How I Would Plan and Execute a Drone Attack on Norway in 2050: A Scenario ................................................ 199 Eirik Newth, M. Sc. Drone Wars – A “Nuclear Impact” on Strategic Thinking? ......... 207 Professor Sir Hew Strachan, Oxford University Om forfatterne ............................................. 217 Tidligere seminartitler ....................................... 223 6 Introduksjon I løpet av det siste tiåret har verden opplevd en voldsom vekst i bruken av ubemannede luftsystemer. De er gjerne kjent under den engelske forkortelsen UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) eller med det begrepet som ofte brukes i norsk dagligtale – «droner». Særlig kjent er USAs bruk av UAV i grenseområ- det mellom Afghanistan og Pakistan, hvor blant annet UAV-ene MQ-1 Pred- ator og MQ-9 Reaper benyttes til målrettede angrep mot ledere i Taliban og al-Qaida, som del av den såkalte «Global War on Terrorism». Nylig (23. mai 2013) forsvarte USAs president Barack Obama denne bruken av droner i en bredere anlagt tale om amerikansk utenrikspolitikk, samtidig som han kriti- serte selve begrepet «Global War on Terrorism» og presiserte at man var nødt til å få en slutt på den krigen som nå er inne i sitt tolvte år. Selv om president Obama skulle lykkes med å finne en avslutning på den krigen USA begynte i kjølvannet av angrepene mot New York og Washing- ton 11. september 2001, er det liten tvil om at bruken av UAV og tilknyttede våpensystemer vil fortsette. I skrivende stund er det hovedsakelig USA som er i førersetet når det gjelder utvikling og bruk av UAV-er, men dette vil etter all sannsynlighet snart endre seg. En rekke nasjoner, deriblant flere NATO-land, har lagt inn store bestillinger på UAV-systemer, og det er derfor lite trolig at USA vil kunne opprettholde sitt tilnærmede monopol særlig lenge. Dette faktum, samt de åpenbare utfordringene man står overfor ved utviklingen av for eksempel våpensystemer som er i stand til finne mål og avfyre prosjek- tiler uten menneskelig medvirkning, førte blant annet til at Christof Heyns, FNs høykommissær for vilkårlige, summariske og utenomjuridiske henret- telser, overfor FNs menneskerettsråd 30. mai 2013 tok til orde for et verden- somspennende moratorium innenfor det han omtalte som «lethal autonomous robotics». Det er åpenbart at bruken av UAV reiser en rekke utfordringer og dilemm- aer – politisk, juridisk, teknologisk og etisk. I takt med ny teknologisk utvikl- ing og tilpasning utvides stadig bruksområdet til UAV-ene. I USA utdannes det nå flere UAV-operatører enn jager- og
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