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Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLTL.N0000) Sri Lanka | Telecommunication EQUITY RESEARCH Initiation of coverage 20 December 2013 Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLTL.N0000) Backbone of the nation Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLTL) is Sri Lanka’s largest fixed telephony operator, Key statistics with a market capitalization of LKR67bn as at 19 December 2013. The company CSE/Bloomberg tickers SLTL.N0000/SLTL SL operates in fixed telephony (FT) – which comprises broadband and pay-TV – Share price (19 Dec 2013) LKR37 and mobile telephony (MT). We believe SLTL’s future revenue growth will stem No. of issued shares (m) 1,805 from its FT segment, driven by the shift towards increasing data usage from Market cap (USDm) 511 voice, and the company’s focus on migrating its fixed voice customer base to Enterprise value (USDm) 605 broadband and pay-TV services, as both these segments have low penetration Free float (%) 5.5% in Sri Lanka. We also expect the MT segment to contribute to revenue growth 52-week range (H/L) LKR50/37 despite the country’s high penetration rates. We believe high levels of price Avg. daily vol. (shares,1yr) 14,212 competition in the local market (compared with those of its regional peers) will Avg. daily turnover (USD 5 pressure EBITDA margin growth, with our estimates increasing modestly over ‘000) 2013E-2015E. However, SLTL has strong balance sheet metrics, which should support its dividend payout despite high capex. Our DCF valuation (with a Source: CSE, Bloomberg scenario analysis) and our EV/EBITDA analysis suggest a share price range of Note: USD/LKR=129.1 (average for the one year ended LKR34-45, versus a share price of LKR37 as of 19 December 2013. 19 December 2013) We forecast SLTL’s revenue to grow at a 6.6% CAGR through 2015E. We expect Share price movement revenue growth to be driven by increasing data usage in FT operations as the company focuses on migrating its subscribers towards the next-generation network 130% (NGN) and cross-selling its triple play services (primarily broadband and pay-TV to its enterprise and household subscribers) through its Megaline connection. We also believe that the MT segment (comprising SLTL’s mobile arm Mobitel, which has a subscriber market share of 21%) still has revenue growth potential despite near 100% 110% penetration levels, given that regional peer analysis, as discussed in report, shows Sri Lanka has further headroom for growth. However, any significant revenue growth in MT would be capped due to intense price competition in the domestic market. 90% We forecast the EBITDA margin to increase 32bps over 2013E-2015E. We have Dec-12 Mar-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 maintained a conservative view on EBITDA margin expansion on the back of the SLTL ASPI S&P SL 20 company’s network infrastructure expansion projects currently underway. We believe Source: CSE, Bloomberg that these investments are yet to pay-back in terms of significant subscriber additions Share price performance and economies of scale; these projects should yield returns once a sufficient proportion of the FT (triple play) Megaline customer base adopts broadband and pay- 3m 6m 12m TV services. Intense price competition in MT operations, together with the shift from SLTL -7.5% -10.0% -14.9% voice to lower-margin data usage, should continue to pressure margins. Cost inflation, industry rivalry and delayed pay-back could result in downward pressure to S&P SL 20 0.4% -7.5% 6.5% our EBITDA margin forecasts. All Share Price Index 0.9% -5.5% 6.2% Higher capex could pressure FCF generation. We believe SLTL’s current capex Source: CSE, Bloomberg cycle (which should phase out in 2015E) will see approximately LKR55.7bn spent Summary financials through 2015E, resulting in negative FCF over 2013E-2014E, with FCF returning to positive levels only in 2015E. These outflows are primarily centered on the company’s LKRm (year end network modernization program, including NGN migration and the i-Sri Lanka project 31 December) 2012 2013E 2014E (discussed later on in the report). However, we believe SLTL’s strong balance sheet, Revenue 56,771 58,683 63,312 supported by sound liquidity and low financial leverage, should allow the company to EBITDA 17,964 18,271 20,091 maintain its dividend payout (at approximately 35%) to shareholders. EBIT 6,170 6,020 7,368 We establish a valuation range of LKR34-45. Our DCF valuation includes a bull- Net profit 4,036 4,798 5,059 and bear-case scenario analysis that factors in potential upside and downside risks to Recurrent EPS 2.24 2.66 2.80 our base-case assumptions, yielding a range of LKR34-42. Our EV/EBITDA analysis ROE (%) 7.6 8.5 8.5 estimates that SLTL currently trades at a 2014E multiple of 3.9x – a 7.4% discount to its normalized average one-year historical EV/EBITDA multiple. Applying a 10% EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 4.3 3.9 premium and discount (warranted by several positive and negative factors that could Source: SLTL, Amba estimates affect our base-case estimates) to the normalized multiple gives a range of LKR36-45. 1 A capital market development initiative by the Colombo Stock Exchange in association with Amba Research Sri Lanka Telecom PLC Table of Contents SLTL to post a revenue CAGR of 6.6% over 2013E-2015E ................................................................................................ 3 Fixed telephony (FT) operations to drive revenue growth, supported by favorable industry trends ...................................................... 3 Mobile telephony (MT) revenue to post a 6.5% CAGR over 2013E-2015E .......................................................................................... 5 International gateway operations remains a steady source of revenue for SLTL ................................................................................. 7 Factors that warrant a potential upside to top-line growth .................................................................................................................... 8 Downside risks to top-line growth ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 We forecast EBITDA margin growth of 32bps over 2013E-2015E ...................................................................................... 9 FT segment EBITDA margin to expand by 29bps through 2015E ...................................................................................................... 10 MT segment’s EBITDA margin to grow by 59bps over 2013E-2015E; margin pressure anticipated .................................................. 10 Other factors that can provide potential margin upside and downside ............................................................................................... 12 Sound liquidity to stem gearing, despite higher capex pressuring short-term FCF ........................................................... 13 SLTL’s stable cash reserves to curb gearing and improve interest cover ........................................................................................... 13 SLTL’s capex program to phase out in 2015E .................................................................................................................................... 14 Dividend payout over 2013E-2015E maintained at historical average ................................................................................................ 14 We arrive at a valuation range of LKR34-45 for SLTL’s shares ........................................................................................ 16 DCF analysis yields a valuation range of LKR34-42 per share........................................................................................................... 16 EV/EBITDA used as the relative valuation technique to support our DCF analysis ............................................................................ 18 Share price performance .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Earnings release focus areas ............................................................................................................................................. 22 Appendix 1: The Sri Lankan mobile telecommunications industry .................................................................................... 23 Industry overview ................................................................................................................................................................................ 23 Competitive landscape in the mobile telecommunications industry .................................................................................................... 23 Broadband industry in Sri Lanka ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 Pay-TV industry in Sri Lanka .............................................................................................................................................................. 26 Industry regulation .............................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Appendix 2: Company overview......................................................................................................................................... 28 SLTL’s business segments ................................................................................................................................................................
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