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June 2005 AF/KL: the First Year He French and the Dutch Have Shown Solidarity in Roundly Reject- CONTENTS Ting the European Constitution

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June 2005 AF/KL: the First Year He French and the Dutch Have Shown Solidarity in Roundly Reject- CONTENTS Ting the European Constitution Aviation Strategy Issue No: 92 June 2005 AF/KL: the first year he French and the Dutch have shown solidarity in roundly reject- CONTENTS Ting the European Constitution. So how are they doing on the Air France/KLM merger? Analysis The official answer is that the first year has been " a complete success", with over-achievement on synergies, hub coordination and cost-cutting. Financial results for the year to March 31 2005 Air France/KLM: the showed a significant improvement on last year, but profitability was first year’s results 1 still modest - a net profit margin of 1.8% compared to 3.2% at BA or 20% at Ryanair. Special Analysis Moreover, year-on-year comparisons remain confusing because of the accounting consolidation process - different periods for Air European charter airlines: France, KLM and the Servair subsidiary, for example. Rather Adapting to a strangely, KLM followed up on the merged results with separate fig- ures for the KLM Group, which revealed an increase in net profit of declining market €67m to €91m in 2004/05 while KLM/AF combined showed an increase of only €59m to €351m. • Industry structural changes Synergies achieved last year amounted to €115m, roughly twice • The UK market expectations, but again it is unclear as to what exactly these syner- • The German market gies refer to or even if they are cost or revenue synergies. Unit cost per ASK didn't change at all between 2004 and 2005, though AF/KL • The future management claim that, taking into account fuel and currency 2-9 effects, a 2.3% decrease in unit costs can be estimated. In the cur- Briefing rent year, most planned cost reductions appear to be in distribution, though cutting or eliminating travel agents' commissions, an action JetBlue: trendsetter that would have taken place regardless of the merger. faces new challenges Coordinating the CDG and Schiphol hubs is key to the success 10-14 of the merger. The agreement stipulated a fair distribution of traffic Freighter values between the two airports, though AF/KL management now empha- and lease rates 15 sises the economic rather than political aspect of capacity and traffic development at Paris and Amsterdam. Three-year network plans Databases 16-19 have been drawn up by AF and KL managers, with "no problem in terms of growth or overlap", except for a few routes, notably the new Airline traffic and financials service to Nagoya. Investors would probably like to get behind these general reas- Aircraft available surances and understand what is happening on a detailed level at the new AF/KL dual hub system, and how real costs are being taken Regional trends out of the joint entity. Trading at €13 in early June the AF/KL share price is down 8% on a year ago and 25% relative to the European Transport index. PUBLISHER AIR FRANCE/KLM CONSOLIDATED RESULTS (€m) 2005 2004 Change Revenues 19,078 17,782 7.3% Aviation Economics Op costs 18,589 17,377 7.0% James House, LG2, Op. result 489 405 20.7% 22/24 Corsham Street Net result 351 292 20.2% London N1 6DR Unit rev (cents/ASK) 6.56 6.55 0.2% Unit cost (cents/ASK) 6.33 6.33 0.0% Tel: +44 (0) 20 7490 5215 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7490 5218 Notes: years to March 31, 2004 is pro forma e-mail: [email protected] www.aviationeconomics.com Aviation Strategy Analysis European charter airlines: Adapting to a declining market ith the decline of the package holiday to have. This stemmed from an analysis that Wand the rise of the LCCs, the death of there was a limited supply of key product that the charter carrier - long predicted by many in holidaymakers wanted - and that the winning the industry - now seems closer than ever. Yet tour operators would be those companies that charter airlines continue to insist they can sur- locked in the most popular destinations Aviation Strategy vive the mounting challenges. Which view is through hotels, airlift etc. is published 10 times a year right? Back in August 1998, Aviation Strategy by Aviation Economics at the beginning of According to the World Travel & Tourism analysed the future of the European charter the month Council, residents of Germany and the UK - industry, and argued that four factors helped to the two most important outbound charter mar- insulate charter airlines from scheduled com- Editor: kets in Europe - will continue to provide the petition: European tourism flows; vertical inte- Keith McMullan third and fourth-largest expenditure on per- gration in the tour operating industry; differ- [email protected] sonal travel and tourism globally in 2005 ences between the charter and scheduled ($196bn and $195bn respectively). However, products; and differences in charter and Contributing Editor Heini Nuutinen the proportion of this that is spent on package scheduled fleets. holidays continues to decline, and there's little These protective factors, however, began Subscription enquiries: doubt that this market - also known as air- to unravel over the next few years: Julian Longin inclusive tours, or AIT - is shrinking. • Although tourism flows have not changed [email protected] IACA (the industry association for charter greatly in the last few years - the annual north Tel: +44 (0)20 7490 5215 airlines) say that whereas 100m Europeans to south Europe summer holiday migration still took a package holiday in 2000, this had fallen takes place - there is a slow but steady leak- Copyright: to 90m by 2003. The greater sophistication of age of former Mediterranean-destined holi- Aviation Economics holidaymakers combined with the ability to daymakers to other medium- and long-haul All rights reserved book airline seats and hotels direct - thus destinations during the summer months. bypassing the necessity for travel agents - • Falling consumer confidence in some Aviation Economics Registered No: 2967706 underpins this trend, and puts even greater European countries in the early 2000s - great- (England) pressure on the traditionally thin margins of ly exacerbated by September 11 - led to the tour operators. reduced demand for the AIT product. This put Registered Office: James But - and it's an important but - there con- tremendous pressure on businesses with House, LG 22/24 Corsham St tinues to be a healthy market for package hol- large amounts of costly fixed assets bought London N1 6DR VAT No: 701780947 idays. It may be declining and it may not be during the vertical integration boom of the hugely profitable, but it is still a very large mar- 1990s. Interest payments on the debt that ISSN 1463-9254 ket, and one that many airlines, both charter funded those tour operator acquisitions The opinions expressed in this publica- tion do not necessarily reflect the opin- and non-charter, are eager to serve. became a huge burden, and led not only to a ions of the editors, publisher or contribu- re-examination of the vertical integration strat- tors. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in this publica- egy, but also to a challenge to the continued tion is accurate, but no legal reponsibility Structural changes is accepted for any errors or omissions. existence of the heavily leveraged tour opera- tors. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be copied, Before analysing the future for charter air- • The difference in product specs between the stored or reproduced in any format, print- ed or electronic, without the written con- lines, it's necessary to take a brief look at the charter and scheduled product still exists, but sent of the publisher. structural changes that have taken place in is now a liability for the charter industry, rather the tour operating industry over the last than a protective barrier. The traditional pack- decade. In the mid and late 1990s, many of age holiday was supply-driven, not demand Europe's major tour operators went on acqui- led, and many holidaymakers are no longer sition frenzy after coming to the view that ver- satisfied with the traditional 7-day and 14-day tical integration was the only business model "one-size-fits-all" packages that leave airports June 2005 2 Aviation Strategy Analysis at three in the morning. The internet and the close enough that LCCs can squeeze in four ability to book individual elements of the pack- rotations a day on a 2/2.5 hour flight/turn- age as part of a self-assembled holiday gave around time - a business model that is just not customers the opportunity to break free from possible out of the UK, where usually only the AIT. three cycles a day to the Mediterranean are • Charter airlines traditionally had larger air- possible. craft than scheduled airlines, with an average aircraft size of more than 200 seats, designed The UK market to pack in holidaymakers on trunk routes to the popular Mediterranean resorts. Again, that difference still exists, but is increasingly irrele- According to the UK CAA, charter airline vant because the charters no longer compete passengers fell by 1.3m in 2004, to 32.1m. primarily against traditional scheduled airlines, That represents 15% of all passengers in the but against a far deadlier foe - the LCCs. UK last year - the lowest percentage for char- ter passengers for 20 years. The impact of the LCCs on the entire That's due partly to the onslaught of the European aviation industry is clear to all. With LCCs, but UK charter airlines argue that while around 60 LCCs in Europe - all but a handful their market share may be declining, in of which didn't exist before 2000 - the 21st absolute terms they are either experiencing century holidaymaker has greater choices and small increases in passengers flown each cheaper fares than ever before.
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